Fed Tips Its Hand!
- unclescrooge
- Posts: 6264
- Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 7:00 pm
Fed Tips Its Hand!
Apparently the Federal Reserve accidentally posted a file to it website detailing non-public internal information. According to Mish Shedlock:
Unintentional Projections
One hike in 2015: The staff expected policymakers would raise their benchmark interest rate, known as the Fed funds rate, enough for it to average 0.35 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. That implies one quarter-point hike this year, as the Fed funds rate is currently hovering around 0.13 percent.
Inflation: the staff did not expect inflation to ever reach the Fed's 2.0 percent target. By the fourth quarter of 2020, they saw the PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation index rising 1.97 percent from a year earlier.
Growth: The Fed's staff also took a dimmer view of long-run economic growth, expecting gross domestic product to expand 1.73 percent in the year through the fourth quarter of 2020. The views of Fed policymakers for long-term growth range from 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... PJpPTRj.99
Unintentional Projections
One hike in 2015: The staff expected policymakers would raise their benchmark interest rate, known as the Fed funds rate, enough for it to average 0.35 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. That implies one quarter-point hike this year, as the Fed funds rate is currently hovering around 0.13 percent.
Inflation: the staff did not expect inflation to ever reach the Fed's 2.0 percent target. By the fourth quarter of 2020, they saw the PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation index rising 1.97 percent from a year earlier.
Growth: The Fed's staff also took a dimmer view of long-run economic growth, expecting gross domestic product to expand 1.73 percent in the year through the fourth quarter of 2020. The views of Fed policymakers for long-term growth range from 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... PJpPTRj.99
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
Stale "news". Plus a grammatically incorrect thread title.
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
Fun! Nothing like a little snarky jab now and then!Coles wrote:Stale "news". Plus a grammatically incorrect thread title.
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
Thanks, Nirav. I very much doubt they can project economic growth more than 6 months into the future, so let's hope they're too pessimistic.
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
At this point, I'll believe the rate hike when I see it.
- unclescrooge
- Posts: 6264
- Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 7:00 pm
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
I think we'll see a rate hike. And then a rate cut. And then a rate hike....for several years.oc4boxer wrote:At this point, I'll believe the rate hike when I see it.
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
Why is it stale?Coles wrote:Stale "news". Plus a grammatically incorrect thread title.
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
Legitimate news outlets reported this event (or non-event) four days ago.wassabi wrote:Why is it stale?
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
Lesson learned. Don't post anything older than 3 days.Coles wrote:Legitimate news outlets reported this event (or non-event) four days ago.wassabi wrote:Why is it stale?
Thanks for posting, OP. I knew they had posted something they were not supposed to but I hadn't heard about the content yet.
Re: Fed Tips Its Hand!
I fixed the thread title.
From: "Fed Tips It's Hand! - "It's" a contraction for "It is"
To: "Fed Tips Its Hand!" - "Its" possessive case.
From: "Fed Tips It's Hand! - "It's" a contraction for "It is"
To: "Fed Tips Its Hand!" - "Its" possessive case.
-
- Posts: 15288
- Joined: Fri Apr 10, 2015 12:29 am
Re: Fed Tips Its Hand!
deleted
Last edited by Northern Flicker on Thu Mar 31, 2022 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- abuss368
- Posts: 27850
- Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
- Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
- Contact:
Re: Fed Tips Its Hand!
What does this mean for TIPS?
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Fed Tips Its Hand!
I wondered about that too. Might the Fed be leaking things on purpose to see how the market reacts?jalbert wrote:Might not have been an accident. I read somewhere a hypothesis that the Fed will implement the first rate increase when they are confident the event is fully priced into the equity and fixed-income markets.
-jalbert
-
- Posts: 177
- Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:14 pm
Re: Fed Tips It's Hand!
This isn't a news board. People can still comment on news old/new.Coles wrote:Stale "news". Plus a grammatically incorrect thread title.
Re: Fed Tips Its Hand!
The Fed Reserve has been telling any one interested in reading the FOMC minutes exactly what is going to do, depending upon an uncertain future.