Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

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Gauss44
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Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by Gauss44 »

Title says it all.

Why I'm asking: I did some research using stock screening websites and it seems that MACD and stochastic charts, plus a few safety measures such as a large volume and market cap, seem to very good at predicting the direction a stock is about to travel.
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by Uncle Pennybags »

Gauss44 wrote:Title says it all.

Why I'm asking: I did some research using stock screening websites and it seems that MACD and stochastic charts, plus a few safety measures such as a large volume and market cap, seem to very good at predicting the direction a stock is about to travel.
No, I use a combination of tarot cards and bone tossing. So far so good.
jdb
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by jdb »

Sounds like you should publish your research for sure. I use the talking coffee grounds approach. Default equity investment in low cost index funds. Every morning when dump coffee grounds in compost I listen carefully. If quiet then stay the course. If the grounds ever start talking with investment advice of course will listen. So far ahead of Jim Cramer.
livesoft
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by livesoft »

^Actually, if a system works for you after you do your research, then you should not publish it, but quietly use it to become a multimillionaire and beyond. You are still allowed to give hints on the Bogleheads forum about it, but not really explain it in full.
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k66
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by k66 »

Well, it would seem that the blend of coffee used would be especially critical...
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek
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HalfMillionaire
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by HalfMillionaire »

There was a time when I thought I could stare deeply into different charts - especially MACD - and beat the market. As you can imagine, it went very very badly. Thankfully I did not have much money then - but in percentage terms it was huge. Scared me off the market for some time until I found bogle-ism.

My conclusion: all public information is already baked into the price. You can not beat the market using information that is already available to rest of the market. Does not matter how smart you are - the market as a whole is smarter than you.
USStks:IntlStks:Bonds::1:1:1, Tilts US Mid/SmallCap and EM.
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Sheepdog
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by Sheepdog »

I did, in the late 80s and 90s, study the MACD theory. Using MACD trends worked wonderfully, it seemed,....I made a lttle money...I was getting in an out just in time, I believed, until it didn't work. Timing doesn't work in the long run...it just doesn't. Then I found the Morningstar Diehards, the predecessor to the Bogleheads, which made me know that timing cannot work in the long term.
There was one person who really tried to tell the Diehards how well following MACD trends worked. He was frustrating, but entertaining. Old timers will remember him. His name was SUDHI. He even came to this forum, but he disappeared after only a few comments during the 2008-09 market collapse. I miss him. He was fun to challenge. I presume that the MACD theory ended up not working for him either.
Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered you will never grow. (Ralph Waldo Emerson)
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SpringMan
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by SpringMan »

For those folks like myself that were wondering what MACD was, as usual google was my friend.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD
If I recall Jim Cramer is a fan of this.
Best Wishes, SpringMan
TravelerMSY
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by TravelerMSY »

Trend indicators work to the extent that they are a proxy for measuring momentum, which works over long timeframes. Months and years though, so don't try to build a day trading system around it.
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Uncle Pennybags
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Re: Has anyone traded primarily (or exclusively) based on stochastic and MACD data? How did it go?

Post by Uncle Pennybags »

HalfMillionaire wrote: Does not matter how smart you are - the market as a whole is smarter than you.
Not smarter but dishonest; those who cheat win. If one does not have inside information or high speed computers located next to the exchanges and think they can beat those who do is the sucker.
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