If you could send an investment message 10 years in the past

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toto238
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If you could send an investment message 10 years in the past

Post by toto238 »

This is an intellectual exercise to see how big an impact a single piece of information can have. And how the lack of knowing that information can put you at a disadvantage if you're trying to do anything but buy-and-hold.

For the rules of this game, I picked an arbitrary limit of 140 characters (it's good enough for a $31billion company, it's good enough for me), because we needed some kind of limit. You get 1 sentence, a max of 140 characters, to send one piece of information to you 10 years ago (March 6th of 2005). The goal is to maximize the value that information would give you.

Here's my contribution:

"S&P 500 reaches high on 10/09/07, reaches low on 03/09/09, climbs to over 2000 by 2015."

87 characters.

With that "inside information", one could make money on a massive leveraged short on the way down, and make money on a massive leveraged long on the way back up. Bail out at 2000, and be very very wealthy.

What one sentence of information would make the biggest impact in your opinion?
investor4life
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by investor4life »

"Read bogleheads.org every morning!"

34 chars.
gbru316
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by gbru316 »

Invest everything in AAPL. Sell in 10 years.


(purchase price would have been just over $6, selling now for about $126).
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Trevor
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Trevor »

Don't sign anything you don't understand
WWJD - What Would Jack Do?
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cheese_breath
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by cheese_breath »

Buy Apple, and sell it ten years from today"
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
Topic Author
toto238
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by toto238 »

cheese_breath wrote:Buy Apple, and sell it ten years from today"
Nice signature for the topic at hand.
Chant
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Chant »

Double the amount you've decided to invest, if possible.
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Crimsontide
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Crimsontide »

Stay away from A.G. Edwards <eom>
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nisiprius
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by nisiprius »

Something like

pwrbal 2/25/15 17-19-21-32-39-[8] 2/28/15 11-17-25-28-46-[12] 3/4/2015 8-12-15-35-50-[32]

would have a bigger impact than anything stock-market-related I can think of.

I'm too lazy to find out how to look up year-2005 numbers but of course you want to get it as soon as possible.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to figure out how to compress the largest number of powerball results into 140 characters, but actually three in a row would do nicely if you parlayed winnings.

And now of course I'm wondering... how far can you go in parlaying lottery winnings? You'd have to allow time between entries because it must take months to receive the jackpot as "available funds" in your checking account... and how many tickets are you allowed to buy? Do lottery winners try to parlay at least part of their winnings?

How many times could you win a major lottery before the lottery officials say "The simple fact that you won proves that you must be cheating even if we don't know how..."
Last edited by nisiprius on Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Sphinx
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Sphinx »

toto238 wrote:What one sentence of information would make the biggest impact in your opinion?
"Save more."

:idea:
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obgyn65
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by obgyn65 »

Work for 10 more years, then retire.
"The two most important days in someone's life are the day that they are born and the day they discover why." -John Maxwell
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nisiprius
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by nisiprius »

I assume by "biggest impact" the toto238 means "greatest self enrichment." Otherwise it would be interesting to figure what would be the most convincing and effective 9/11 warning one could compress into 140 characters.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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toto238
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by toto238 »

nisiprius wrote:I assume by "biggest impact" the toto238 means "greatest self enrichment." Otherwise it would be interesting to figure what would be the most convincing and effective 9/11 warning one could compress into 140 characters.
Considering that 9/11 happened 4 years prior to 2005, I'm not sure what would be most convincing or effective either. You wouldn't be preventing those events. Your time machine only works back to 2005. Perhaps "OBL is in Abottabad"?

But yes I meant for "self enrichment", as you refer to it.
BabylonOrBust
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by BabylonOrBust »

I'd find whatever stock gained the most percentage wise and tell me to put every cent I could get my hands on into it.

More realistically (if there could be such a thing), I'd say "Save more, save more, save more, save more, please please please please please SAVE MORE!"
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rob
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by rob »

Yeah lottery date & numbers would be best... just lookup the largest / least nbr winners in google before hitting send.
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien
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CABob
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by CABob »

Dear Self,
Here is a Callan Periodic Table that you may find useful.
Bob
flatfoot
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by flatfoot »

nisiprius wrote:Something like

pwrbal 2/25/15 17-19-21-32-39-[8] 2/28/15 11-17-25-28-46-[12] 3/4/2015 8-12-15-35-50-[32]

would have a bigger impact than anything stock-market-related I can think of.

I'm too lazy to find out how to look up year-2005 numbers but of course you want to get it as soon as possible.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to figure out how to compress the largest number of powerball results into 140 characters, but actually three in a row would do nicely if you parlayed winnings.

And now of course I'm wondering... how far can you go in parlaying lottery winnings? You'd have to allow time between entries because it must take months to receive the jackpot as "available funds" in your checking account... and how many tickets are you allowed to buy? Do lottery winners try to parlay at least part of their winnings?

How many times could you win a major lottery before the lottery officials say "The simple fact that you won proves that you must be cheating even if we don't know how..."
yes... lottery then buy Apple.
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jwillis77373
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by jwillis77373 »

Probably..
"Hey this Time [wasn't] different.."
"Always have an emergency fund.."
"Stay the heck out of bonds.."
"Stay the heck out of stocks.."
"Stay the heck out of real estate.."
"Stay the heck out of derivatives.."
"Stay in a low cost total market index fund.."
"Block all Finance channels and Hangup on all Investing callers"
"Ignore the News"
"Listen to John Bogle.."
"Relax, Stay the Course"

Heck why not send it 10 years into the Future.. the advise would be the same.
Ron
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Ron »

Don't worry so much about financial stuff; things are going to work out just fine just the way you are currently saving/investing/spending...

- Ron
livesoft
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by livesoft »

I did use the forum to send an investment message 4 years into the future. Check out the link in this post:
viewtopic.php?p=2343587#p2343587
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
staythecourse
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by staythecourse »

Easy and it is the same reason I chose my name on this site as a reminder to myself every time I log on.

"Stay the course"

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle
upinsmoke
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by upinsmoke »

"Everything Long AAPL"

20 characters for +1988%
Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

You are right - people are Big Hat, No Cattle!
Stay the course!
Always keep a cash buffer on the side to snap up those occasional bargains.
Invest early and often in lowest cost index funds.
Don't buy residential real estate 2005-2007, wait until 2010. :D
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Twins Fan
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Twins Fan »

Easy since 10 years ago me was 32 with not a single cent saved...

"just start already" :D
Twins Fan
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Twins Fan »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Don't buy residential real estate 2005-2007, wait until 2010. :D
Ahh, nice one!

Let me add to my earlier post then... "just start already and don't buy that house in August 2005" :oops:

Live and learn.... the hard way for some of us.
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bertilak
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by bertilak »

It would be to read everything that Jack Bogle wrote.

I really wish I could send a message back 30 years! I would be a very rich man by now, even without specific buy/sell recommendations. The message would have been of the nature "save, invest, stick with it."
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet
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tc101
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by tc101 »

Sell all stocks Oct 2007 then buy Ford Motor Co Jan 2009 then sell it when it gets to $16 in Dec 2010, then buy Apple
Last edited by tc101 on Mon Mar 09, 2015 1:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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wfrobinette
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by wfrobinette »

Buy Powerball 05/25/2005 27,29,31,42,46,33 invest 75% in AAPL stay the course until 2015
Confused
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Confused »

[Blanked for privacy]
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musbane
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by musbane »

For those considering heavy leverage, think about the scenario whereby you, say, go long Apple and, even though you have the end points correct, the stock dips in the early days, and you get a huge margin call. :oops:
singern
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by singern »

There's this book called the "Bggleheads guide to investment" buy yourself a copy and read it... specifically the "what to do with a windfall section"

March 30th 2012 there's going to be a lottery drawing .... 46- 23 - 38-4- 2 - (megaball 23)

Also the Giants are going to beat the Patriots in the SB...twice.
I haven't "needed the money" since I took Archie's milk money in the third grade.... but I like it - The Departed, 2006.
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Aptenodytes
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Aptenodytes »

nisiprius wrote: I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to figure out how to compress the largest number of powerball results into 140 characters, but actually three in a row would do nicely if you parlayed winnings.
If the medium permits all ascii characters to be used, then I think you could communicate a complete PowerBall sequence in 4 characters, not including the date. I like the idea of chaining time-travel-induced PowerBall winnings.

This is not my area of expertise though so I could be all wet.

The compression algorithm would have to be obvious to your earlier self, which may rule out maximum compression.
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Epsilon Delta
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Epsilon Delta »

nisiprius wrote:And now of course I'm wondering... how far can you go in parlaying lottery winnings?
I don't think you can in any meaningful way.

If you're a solo winner buying a single ticket is as good as buying ten or a million identical tickets. If the jackpot is shared it's worth buying identical tickets, but even that only needs moderate amounts of capital before you get diminishing returns so no need for more than a few thousand at most (1000/1001 - 999/1000 ~ 1/1000000 so buying 1001 identical tickets instead of 1000 only gains a few hundred dollars, you're probably better off going for the secondary prizes at that point). Of course highly abnormal betting patterns, let alone winning multiple jackpots is likely to get you noticed and possibly not paid.

Best bang for the buck is probably the the drawings before the biggest jackpots. You'd be a solo winner without doing anything strange.
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dmcmahon
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by dmcmahon »

Put all your money into AAPL and hold until 2015

I would debate the notion that lottery tickets are an investment message.
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by StretchArmstrong »

If you received a message from yourself from the future, would you actually act on it?? I don't think I would.
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Aptenodytes
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Aptenodytes »

StretchArmstrong wrote:If you received a message from yourself from the future, would you actually act on it?? I don't think I would.
Really? Even if it only cost you $20?
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dmcmahon
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by dmcmahon »

StretchArmstrong wrote:If you received a message from yourself from the future, would you actually act on it?? I don't think I would.
I would include a component that would ensure it came from me. It's not in my message but 140 characters is more than enough to append it. Since the only possible sender is me, and my past self didn't send it, he'd know it came from a future me (or it could be an alternate universe me playing a very dirty trick). 8-)
ShiftF5
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by ShiftF5 »

CABob wrote:Dear Self,
Here is a Callan Periodic Table that you may find useful.
I'll go with that.
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pennstater2005
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by pennstater2005 »

Dear idiot,

Please stay in college and get a good degree so you can increase your income and actually be able to save and invest for a secure and comfortable retirement. Hey! Put that beer down……it's hopeless.

Pennstater1995
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6miths
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by 6miths »

10 years? I got nothing... thank you Mr. Bogle.
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain
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CABob
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by CABob »

ShiftF5 wrote:
CABob wrote:Dear Self,
Here is a Callan Periodic Table that you may find useful.
I'll go with that.
A quick envelope back calculation indicates that $100,000 in 2005 would become about $1.2MM in 2014 by investing in the top performing asset class each year.
Bob
gips
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by gips »

locate and marry a woman named scarlett johanssan. amazing roi.
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ddb
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by ddb »

"Consistent long slightly out-of-money call options on REGN, GMCR, PCLN, NFLX, AAPL for next 10 years. Cancel wedding."

Around 128 characters, massive impact. Would be insanely wealthy by year-end alone. Would avoid disastrous relationship which continues to this day.
"We have to encourage a return to traditional moral values. Most importantly, we have to promote general social concern, and less materialism in young people." - PB
barnaclebob
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by barnaclebob »

Bitcoins will hit $1200, sell above 800.
randomthrowaway
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by randomthrowaway »

Don't dump the doctor who was love with you, or the physical therapist you dated while in college...lol
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kenyan
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by kenyan »

"Bitcoin price $1200 in November 2013, accumulate and then sell all before crash."

If you picked them up for a tenth of a cent on average (approximate price in early 2010), that's a growth of 120 million percent, non-taxable (I think). Per dollar, not quite the impact of the lottery, but you could accumulate a lot more wealth this way due to a limited number of lotteries you could win. Of course, I wouldn't be rich prior to that point, so maybe I'd jigger in a lottery number in 2005 as well.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
randomguy
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by randomguy »

CABob wrote:
ShiftF5 wrote:
CABob wrote:Dear Self,
Here is a Callan Periodic Table that you may find useful.
I'll go with that.
A quick envelope back calculation indicates that $100,000 in 2005 would become about $1.2MM in 2014 by investing in the top performing asset class each year.
That is pretty horrible performance. You probably would have gotten more than that by just telling the person what TSLA option trade to make in 2013.:)

Staying in one stock is stupid when you can chain something like

Buy AAPL. Sell 12/31/07 &
Buy EDV Sell 12/31/08 & (would really rather short mortgages/real estate but I have no clue if I would have access to that)
BUY PCYC sell 12/31/12 &
Buy TSLA sell 12/31/14

together. That isn't even remotely optimal either. Use options (i.e. there is no risk when you know the results) and you really ramp up those numbers.

At some point you need to define investing. Nothing is going to beat figuring out some lottery numbers (i.e. you might not want the real winning one. You might be better off with the one before that on so you don't have to split) initially and option trades towards the end (winning a 300 million dollar is a low return versus investing 100 million in some stock that returns 10x after leverage. Probably have some market liquity issues at that level though when you place a 2 billion dollar order for tesla options:)).

And if you needed a text to tell you that 20 year old Scar Jo was attractive, you have issues:) The good news is with 10 billion+ dollars you can find a lot of woman that look just like her. And some of them will even find you interesting:)
traveler90
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by traveler90 »

I'd pick lottery numbers for early 2009, and invest it all at the market lows. Plus it would have given me a little more spending money for my study abroad trip in college. Win/win.
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Dutch
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by Dutch »

barnaclebob wrote:Bitcoins will hit $1200, sell above 800.
I was thinking the same thing
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parsi1
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Re: If you could send an investment message 10 years in the

Post by parsi1 »

1. Increase 401K contribution in 2008
2. warn people about a guy named Madoff
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