Performance of TSP funds

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Tamales
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Performance of TSP funds

Post by Tamales »

TSP is an acronym I've seen many times on the forum but never looked it up until this weekend. For those that don't know, some info on the Thrift Savings Plan
https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/inv ... unds.shtml
and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrift_Savings_Plan

This seems like a plan that most of us with a 401k would trade for (in other words it seems pretty good). Its fund choices are apparently proprietary (no ticker symbol) funds but they do have data on the website. So I did some comparisons.

First, the "C" fund, which is said to track the SP500, vs Vanguard total stock market (not an entirely fair comparison and I should have used VIIIX or something like that, but the differential looks identical to plotting an SP500 fund versus any of number of low expense total market funds:

Image
Nothing to see here.

Next is the "I" fund (international). I compare it to Vanguard's VGTSX:
Image

and the "F" fund (bonds) which I compare to Vanguard VBMFX:
Image

There is also a "G" fund (some custom gov't securities fund so not sure what to compare to...maybe a GNMA fund judging by the chart)
and a "S" fund which is small and mid caps. Small/mid funds are all over the map so I don't know if this is closer to a Russell2000 or an active small/mid.

Here's those 5 in one chart:
Image

Then there are the "L" funds:
L Income
L2020
L2030
L2040
They only go bank to late 2005 though. Still, I could pull some charts together if anyone has interest in seeing comparisons.
HIinvestor
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by HIinvestor »

The nice thing about TSP is that expense ratios and administrative fees are very low. It's for current and retired fed employees. Both H and S have money with TSP.
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grabiner
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by grabiner »

The S fund corresponds to Vanguard Extended Market Index; both funds hold all US stocks which are not in the S&P 500.

The I fund corresponds to Vanguard Developed Markets Index; Vanguard Total International is more complete.

And the G fund has no comparison; it is a free lunch created by the plan. The yield of the G fund is equal to the average yield on all outstanding Treasury bonds over four years from maturity, which is about the yield of an intermediate-to-long-term Treasury fund. But the securities mature daily, so there is no interest-rate risk.

Therefore, I normally recommend that Bogleheads with Vanguard and TSP accounts put their entire bond allocation in the G fund, and use Vanguard for international (or as a complement to the TSP, with Emerging Markets Index and FTSE Small-Cap to cover the missing segments), splitting US stock as needed according to the account sizes.
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Tamales
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Tamales »

grabiner wrote:The S fund corresponds to Vanguard Extended Market Index; both funds hold all US stocks which are not in the S&P 500.

The I fund corresponds to Vanguard Developed Markets Index; Vanguard Total International is more complete.

And the G fund has no comparison; it is a free lunch created by the plan. The yield of the G fund is equal to the average yield on all outstanding Treasury bonds over four years from maturity, which is about the yield of an intermediate-to-long-term Treasury fund. But the securities mature daily, so there is no interest-rate risk.

Therefore, I normally recommend that Bogleheads with Vanguard and TSP accounts put their entire bond allocation in the G fund, and use Vanguard for international (or as a complement to the TSP, with Emerging Markets Index and FTSE Small-Cap to cover the missing segments), splitting US stock as needed according to the account sizes.
Thanks for the info. What do you mean by the G fund being a free lunch? Do you mean that in the sense that it would be impossible for a fund manager from anywhere else (outside the federal gov't) to construct it, even if they had the "recipe," because the "vehicles" aren't available to the general public?

What sort of matching program do plan participants get? Or does it vary (e.g. members of Congress get a 25% match and everyone else gets 5% ;o))

Is it correct that some TSP plan participants also get a pension?
fundseeker
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by fundseeker »

Tamales wrote:Is it correct that some TSP plan participants also get a pension?
Don't they all, whether they are FERS or CSRS?
dependapotamus
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by dependapotamus »

Military members can invest in the TSP. Those who make it to 20 years or get an early retirement option can collect a pension in addition to TSP. Of course, military members are not obligated to put money into TSP, and get no match or automatic contribution.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by grabiner »

Tamales wrote:
grabiner wrote:And the G fund has no comparison; it is a free lunch created by the plan. The yield of the G fund is equal to the average yield on all outstanding Treasury bonds over four years from maturity, which is about the yield of an intermediate-to-long-term Treasury fund. But the securities mature daily, so there is no interest-rate risk.
Thanks for the info. What do you mean by the G fund being a free lunch? Do you mean that in the sense that it would be impossible for a fund manager from anywhere else (outside the federal gov't) to construct it, even if they had the "recipe," because the "vehicles" aren't available to the general public?
Yes, this is what I mean. The G fund is a better investment option than anything available to the retail investor, because the securities are non-marketable. (It's not the only free lunch in retirement plans; many plans have stable-value funds, which offer a guaranteed short-term return. The advantage of the G fund is that it is backed by the US Government.)
What sort of matching program do plan participants get? Or does it vary (e.g. members of Congress get a 25% match and everyone else gets 5% ;o))
Most government employees are under the FERS retirement system, which matches 5% if you put in 5% (1% automatic, 100% match on the next 3%, 50% match on the next 2%). The older retirement system (CSRS, for employees who started before 1984) has no match but a larger pension.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by pointyhead »

Most government employees are under the FERS retirement system, which matches 5% if you put in 5% (1% automatic, 100% match on the next 3%, 50% match on the next 2%)
One of the great things of the TSP match is that it is based upon the employees base pay. For example if your base pay is $80K the 5% match would be $4k instead of 5% of the contribution.

PH
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by rkhusky »

pointyhead wrote:
Most government employees are under the FERS retirement system, which matches 5% if you put in 5% (1% automatic, 100% match on the next 3%, 50% match on the next 2%)
One of the great things of the TSP match is that it is based upon the employees base pay. For example if your base pay is $80K the 5% match would be $4k instead of 5% of the contribution.

PH
I think that is how most employer matching works, i.e. it is 1:1, 1:2, 2:1 matching up to some percentage of your salary or some fixed amount.
red5
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by red5 »

Disregard the following. Not a valid comparison.

Interesting graphs. I looked at your C fund versus VTSMX graph and the difference was not what I expected. I had thought it would have been the other way around; the C fund ahead of VTSMX.

Today's C fund has about a what, .13% advantage in terms of ER? Perhaps that was not always so. A quick search did not reveal historical ERs for the C fund.

I was only able to find historical prices back to June of 2003. Since then the annualized growth rate is 8.98% for C fund and 9.51% for VTSMX.

It seems in the past few years the C fund has reversed this. I chose to compare the last 5 years and noticed the C fund was been ahead by .18% per year, which is kind of sort of in line with the difference of their current ERs.

But perhaps it is just fund management and noise that explains some of the difference too.

And really, they are both great funds and this sort analysis of mine has merely been a way to [pleasantly] waste 5 minutes of my time.
Last edited by red5 on Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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retiredjg
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by retiredjg »

Where did the graphs come from?

I don't understand the results either. I'd expect the TSP to have closely matched or slightly outperformed the comparison funds (except international since that is not apples and apples)
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retiredjg
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by retiredjg »

red5 wrote:Today's C fund has about a what, .13% advantage in terms of ER? Perhaps that was not always so. A quick search did not reveal historical ERs for the C fund.
https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fun ... atio.shtml
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tadamsmar
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by tadamsmar »

There is access for to the G Fund outside of federal employment: https://myra.treasury.gov/

But it's quite limited access.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by red5 »

retiredjg wrote:
red5 wrote:Today's C fund has about a what, .13% advantage in terms of ER? Perhaps that was not always so. A quick search did not reveal historical ERs for the C fund.
https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fun ... atio.shtml
Thank you. Just guessing here but those seem to be lower than what I would expect from VTSMX.

retiredjg wrote:Where did the graphs come from?

I don't understand the results either. I'd expect the TSP to have closely matched or slightly outperformed the comparison funds (except international since that is not apples and apples)
Disregard.
I compared C fund's June 2003 price with the Dec '14 price and compared it to a Morningstar.com VTMSX growth of 10,000 chart with the same time period and it does appear VTSMX had a 0.50% advantage per year.

From Dec '04 to Dec '14 there is still a .27% advantage for VTSMX.
Last edited by red5 on Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ketawa
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Ketawa »

I was very skeptical of the graphs, as well. I thought the OP might have used NAV for the Vanguard funds, which would have left out distributions. But I compared VFIAX (good proxy for the C Fund) to VTSMX and it approximately matched the graph in the OP.

The TSP funds don't have tickers, but the C, S, and F funds are basically the same as Vanguard funds with Admiral shares, not Investor shares. It's easy to qualify for Admiral shares, so they should be used for the comparison. VFIAX, VEXAX, and VBTLX. All the TSP funds had an ER of 0.029% in 2013.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by rkhusky »

Ketawa wrote: The TSP funds don't have tickers, but the C, S, and F funds are basically the same as Vanguard funds with Admiral shares, not Investor shares. It's easy to qualify for Admiral shares, so they should be used for the comparison. VFIAX, VEXAX, and VBTLX. All the TSP funds had an ER of 0.029% in 2013.
And the I Fund should be compared to VTMGX. The OP should make sure to include dividends in the Vanguard funds. Yahoo has daily/weekly/monthly data that includes dividends.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Ketawa »

rkhusky wrote:
Ketawa wrote: The TSP funds don't have tickers, but the C, S, and F funds are basically the same as Vanguard funds with Admiral shares, not Investor shares. It's easy to qualify for Admiral shares, so they should be used for the comparison. VFIAX, VEXAX, and VBTLX. All the TSP funds had an ER of 0.029% in 2013.
And the I Fund should be compared to VTMGX. The OP should make sure to include dividends in the Vanguard funds. Yahoo has daily/weekly/monthly data that includes dividends.
The I Fund and VTMGX no longer follow the same index. The I Fund follows the MSCI EAFE index, and VTMGX follows the FTSE Developed ex North America Index. The main differences would be that the FTSE index includes Korea and 90% of investible stocks, while the MSCI index does not include Korea and includes 85% of investible stocks.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Tamales »

Ignoring for a moment that I didn't know which comparison funds were the best to use, I suspect there is slightly more than just ER to account for any differences, even if the "best match" fund had been used.

One thing is the use of statistical replication of a given index rather than buying all that are in the index. Each fund does it slightly differently.

Another is trading costs (turnover), which might be very close, but when we're pointing out differences of less than a tenth of a percent, could show up, and might be slightly larger in proportional to AUM but I'm not positive about that. If a fund does 100% replication instead of statistical, this would seemingly be an even larger factor.

Another is cash position, which varies with time, and how they deal with variable inflows and outflows.

Another is tracking error.

All those other factors could add up and be more significant than the small ER difference.

It would probably be even more pronounced for the L-funds since they are "funds of funds" and each of the above factors applies to each component, with the additional factor of small variation from the target allocation across the component funds over time as they invest inflows and manage the cash position.

Aside from this exercise, I've compared various index funds that track the same index, and there are definitely difference that aren't explained just by the ER difference. The reasons I listed above are some possible reasons, but since there isn't real-time data available on all those factors you can't really break it down.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by retiredjg »

Tamales, where did your graphs come from?
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Tamales »

retiredjg wrote:Tamales, where did your graphs come from?
They were generated by me, in Excel, since as far as I can tell there is no online source with TSP fund returns where you could do this type of graphical comparison. The Vanguard fund data came from a Morningstar subscription feed that is part of a software package I have, and is total return. The TSP monthly fund data came from the TSP website. I simply converted it to be relative to a $10,000 initial investment.

I freely acknowledged that the comparison funds I picked might not be the best match, but they aren't that far off the mark. Given the comparisons I picked, I don't think there is much of an opening for "operator error" in generating the graphs if that's what you're asking. But I can double check the spreadsheet if there's something in particular that (given the fund differences already noted) doesn't look right to you.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by red5 »

Tamales wrote: I freely acknowledged that the comparison funds I picked might not be the best match, but they aren't that far off the mark. Given the comparisons I picked, I don't think there is much of an opening for "operator error" in generating the graphs if that's what you're asking. But I can double check the spreadsheet if there's something in particular that (given the fund differences already noted) doesn't look right to you.
Your comparisons look sound to me, for what it's worth. I think they just have some people surprised (including me) and naturally some may question it. The conclusion I take is that small differences in ERs between supposedly identical / similar funds can be overcome by other differences (as you mentioned earlier).
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by fortyofforty »

Aren't your graphs more a revelation about the performance of the S&P 500 versus the entire U.S. stock market (including the small and mid-cap stocks), and the MSCI EAFE index versus the entire international stock market, including emerging markets? Not a critique, just an observation. Thanks for creating those graphs, by the way.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by retiredjg »

Tamales wrote:They were generated by me, in Excel, since as far as I can tell there is no online source with TSP fund returns where you could do this type of graphical comparison.
This is why I asked the question. I've never seen any graphs of these funds so I wondered where you found one.

Like others, I assumed the lower ERs would lead to slight outperformance rather than underperformance. Your graph has upset my applecart a bit. But I'll survive. :happy
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Ketawa »

retiredjg wrote:Like others, I assumed the lower ERs would lead to slight outperformance rather than underperformance. Your graph has upset my applecart a bit. But I'll survive. :happy
I'm not sure what you're seeing. VTSMX beat the C Fund, but that's mainly because it includes the S Fund. The S Fund beat the C Fund by a lot, visible in the 4th graph.

VGTSX beat the I Fund, but that's mainly because it includes emerging markets.

The F Fund beat the VBMFX, but that's partially because it has a much lower ER. It would not do as well against VBTLX. Even so, I think it has outperformed VBTLX on a regular basis.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by rkhusky »

Ketawa wrote:
rkhusky wrote:
Ketawa wrote: The TSP funds don't have tickers, but the C, S, and F funds are basically the same as Vanguard funds with Admiral shares, not Investor shares. It's easy to qualify for Admiral shares, so they should be used for the comparison. VFIAX, VEXAX, and VBTLX. All the TSP funds had an ER of 0.029% in 2013.
And the I Fund should be compared to VTMGX. The OP should make sure to include dividends in the Vanguard funds. Yahoo has daily/weekly/monthly data that includes dividends.
The I Fund and VTMGX no longer follow the same index. The I Fund follows the MSCI EAFE index, and VTMGX follows the FTSE Developed ex North America Index. The main differences would be that the FTSE index includes Korea and 90% of investible stocks, while the MSCI index does not include Korea and includes 85% of investible stocks.
It's still the best of the Vanguard funds to use as a comparison. No Canada, emerging markets, or small-cap int'l, just like the I Fund.
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Tamales
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Tamales »

retiredjg: Allow me to generate some new graphs with the recommended comparisons, and your apple cart may very well be restored ;o)

To make sure on the new comparisons, are these the funds to use:

C vs VIFAX
S vs VEXAX
F vs VBLTX
I vs ? (sounds like the reference index was changed midstream so this will not compare longer term)
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by lack_ey »

I quickly compiled the data for the last 10 years for all TSP funds and Vanguard equivalents. If one of you wants to make graphs, go ahead:

edit: wait a sec, fixing...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... li=1#gid=0
red5
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by red5 »

Okay, I am a little red faced. What was I thinking? Not sure why I was comparing VTSMX and C fund, probably because the OP did and I went along with it.

VFIAX would be a much better comparison. Since June 2, 2003, C fund is ahead 8.90% to 8.88% (so basically a wash).

I am not sure where to get historical information before that date for the TSP.

I am sorry all.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by x35864 »

The two categories that TSP funds beat comparable Vanguard funds are in expense ratio and tracking error.

Vanguard's tracking error for Admiral shares of the S&P 500 Index is negative 2 basis points.
Vanguard's ER for this fund is 5 basis points.

TSP's tracking error for the C Fund was positive 1 bps in December 2014.
TSP's ER is 3 basis points (rounded up).

There's not that much difference between the two. TSP costs 2 basis points (factoring in the positive tracking error) and Vanguard is 7 basis points (adding in the tracking error).

Note there was a pricing adjustment in the international fund at TSP, which is another reason to go with Vanguard's more complete international funds.
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard ... king_error
http://www.frtib.gov/pdf/minutes/MM-2014Dec-Att2.pdf
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by retiredjg »

Ketawa wrote:I'm not sure what you're seeing. VTSMX beat the C Fund, but that's mainly because it includes the S Fund.
When I compare TSM to 500 Index at Morningstar, they are very close. The growth of $10k over 10y is only a couple $100 different. So my eyeballing said this was a bigger difference that just attributable to the S fund. But we'll wait till we see the new apples to apples graphs.
VGTSX beat the I Fund, but that's mainly because it includes emerging markets.
I wasn't paying much attention to this one because of that large difference.
The F Fund beat the VBMFX, but that's partially because it has a much lower ER. It would not do as well against VBTLX. Even so, I think it has outperformed VBTLX on a regular basis.
Yes, this actually is what I would have expected. :happy
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Tamales
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Tamales »

Here's some revised graphs based on different comparison funds (not much daylight between most of them) (just noticed I transposed letters on the label in first one, using VBLTX. Let me double check that to see if the data is right or just my label is wrong)

Image
Last edited by Tamales on Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
red5
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by red5 »

Tamales wrote:Here's some revised graphs...
Should you be comparing F fund to VBTLX and not VBLTX?


Never mind, I see your statement. These look more like apples to apples comparisons now (and the F fund will when you update it with the correct fund). Before it was more like an apple to a caramel apple comparison (regarding C fund and Total Stock). :happy
Last edited by red5 on Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ketawa
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Ketawa »

Something is very wrong with the new graph comparing the F Fund and an unclear bond fund.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Dr_McGarvey »

I call attention to my continuing series on the TSP, analyses and graphs which I construct in Excel.

[OT link removed by admin LadyGeek]
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by Tamales »

Turns out the TSP-F graph above is correct. Just the title is wrong (should say VBTLX not VBLTX). Just to be sure I downloaded new data for both Vanguard funds, and here's TSF-F vs VBTLX vs VBLTX. The long term bond fund VBLTX (gray line in 1st graph) doesn't resemble TSP-F at all, while VBTLX has similar zigs and zags, it just underperforms for whatever reason.

Image

It also turns out the admiral and investor shares VBTLX and VBMFX don't track well from the 2002 start of the graph to about Feb 2004, for whatever reason (the investor shares have much better performance). After that they maintain the tight tracking with a slight edge to the admiral shares, as you'd expect, and that holds to today. I've seen this before in fund classes differing for some period in other funds.

Anyway, If I just plot since 2007 (when the Vanguard admiral and investor shares tracked well), it looks like this (but TSP-F still outperforms):

Image

I can't explain it, I'm just the "data messenger." ;o)
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by red5 »

Tamales wrote:...It also turns out the admiral and investor shares VBTLX and VBMFX don't track well from the 2002 start of the graph to about Feb 2004, for whatever reason (the investor shares have much better performance). After that they maintain the tight tracking with a slight edge to the admiral shares, as you'd expect, and that holds to today. I've seen this before in fund classes differing for some period in other funds.
According to this Morningstar graph both vbtlx and vbmfx matched each other very closely during that time period. Looks like something did happen in mid 2002 ish to cause them both to deviate from the index. Perhaps the F fund did not deviate during this time period and that explains your latest graph..

This graph shows them from 2002 to present day matching each other quite closely.
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retiredjg
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by retiredjg »

red5 wrote: According to this Morningstar graph both vbtlx and vbmfx matched each other very closely during that time period. Looks like something did happen in mid 2002 ish to cause them both to deviate from the index. Perhaps the F fund did not deviate during this time period and that explains your latest graph..
It is a bit of a bobble, isn't it? The graph makes it look fairly dramatic, but the end result is only a few hundred dollars.

I wonder if the Index changed or something?
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by red5 »

retiredjg wrote: It is a bit of a bobble, isn't it? The graph makes it look fairly dramatic, but the end result is only a few hundred dollars.

I wonder if the Index changed or something?
Here (an old Boglehead's Wiki?) is a page, which links the 2002 annual report, discussing what happened in 2002. It is near the bottom.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by tadamsmar »

I wonder if this difference in the F Fund returns could have anything to do with float adjustment? If I have my facts right, VBTLX and VBLTX are using the float adjusted index. But this document on the TSP does not say whether the F Fund is using the float adjusted index or not, but is says the C,S, and I are all float adjusted:

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/tsplf14.pdf

When an index is float adjusted, only the freely traded bonds/stocks are included. I don't know the whole history of non-traded bonds, but I think the feds were holding a boat-load of them as part of toxic asset relief starting circa 2008.
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Re: Performance of TSP funds

Post by retiredjg »

red5 wrote:Here (an old Boglehead's Wiki?) is a page, which links the 2002 annual report, discussing what happened in 2002. It is near the bottom.
That seems to explain the 2002 issue.

Interesting how some of this is different from we (or I) imagined.
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