2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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mickeyd
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by mickeyd »

Regal 56 wrote:
mickeyd wrote:I always go with an increase of 5%. That’s bound to be a winning strategy in 2015.

2161.85
I picked 2161.845. You’ll be sorry when I beat you by .005. Trust the calculator and never round up.
I'm prepared to come in 2nd place.
Part-Owner of Texas | | “The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle
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RedRose
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by RedRose »

2222.50
JimmyJammy
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by JimmyJammy »

2218.90
BlueChip
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by BlueChip »

2212
:dollar
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Fat-Tailed Contagion
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Fat-Tailed Contagion »

2145.45
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” | ― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor (75/25 - 50/50 - 25/75)
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digarei
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by digarei »

For some inexplicable reason, I associate a relatively modest decline of the S&P500 in this coming year with an historically precarious year for so many in the world at large. The past is past but sometimes history rhymes in odd and unexpected ways.

1941
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Noobvestor
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Noobvestor »

2062.5
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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noyopacific
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by noyopacific »

1029.45
The information contained herein, while not guaranteed by us, has been obtained from from sources which have not in the past proved particularly reliable.
habbot
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by habbot »

2144.63 at 12/31/15 close
teacher
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by teacher »

Look how much this contest has grown since it's inception with another day to go:
2014–503 (14 experts)
2013–433 (11 experts)
2012–410 (14 experts)
2011–369 (6 experts)
2010–282 (10 experts)
2009–64 (15 experts)
2008–297 (13 experts)
2007–309 (12 experts)
2006–274 (12 experts)
2005–270 (10 experts)
2004–222 (12 experts)
2003–209 (11 experts)

I found it interesting participation dropped down to only 64 contestants in 2009. I guess we were too busy licking our wounds to play along in those days. :wink:
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C4NT
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by C4NT »

2228.76
leod
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by leod »

2178.94
Wind_Reaver
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Wind_Reaver »

1276.52

Thanks for the contest.
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SorenK
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by SorenK »

2222.69
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rarvesen
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by rarvesen »

Not Law wrote:Why are only 64 entries listed in the tracking site? And since mine is not, does that mean I am not registered?
Hi, it's a manual process where I have to take all of the entries posted in this forum thread and add them to the tracking site. It should have more entries today.
--
ralph
Randy58
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Randy58 »

2164.1
dand76
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by dand76 »

2327.76
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rarvesen
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by rarvesen »

1888.23
mptfan
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by mptfan »

2,222.00
karvesen
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Post by karvesen »

2197.3
marvesen
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by marvesen »

2308.48
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allroads
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by allroads »

2,319.4645656
But that sounds high so I guess I should round down. Final answer: 2,319.46
"All Roads Lead to Rome." "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world" - Einstein
Dadarkar
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Dadarkar »

2026.26
gffisher
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by gffisher »

Sorry, I submitted twice.
Last edited by gffisher on Fri Jan 09, 2015 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
gffisher
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by gffisher »

2192.13

Regards,

Gordon
sidartvader
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by sidartvader »

2250.50
notmyhand
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by notmyhand »

2147.43
FinancialDave
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by FinancialDave »

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

Financial Dave won our 2014 Boglehead Contest with his remarkably close guess of 2057.36. He has chosen Mr. Bogle's excellent book, Don't Count On It.
"Don't Count On It" that sounds like an excellent theme for 2015. Well, I heard a few had asked "how did I do it," For the answer to that I think you must read a book or two by Mauboussin to be able to untangle the skill vs luck equation. For me, honestly, I don't remember exactly how I did it, so that being the case, I don't imagine I will be able to repeat the feat. :oops:

This year however I plan to use a method that can win for anyone, they only need to pick the correct multiplier (plus or minus) and apply it to their age (on Dec 31st 2015). In my case this multiplier is 2 times my age added to last years ending number which was 2058.90, so 63 x 2 = 126 + 2058.90 =

My guess of 2184.90

Sorry to the other 500+ entries who used some other method - I just hope you wrote the method out so when Taylor asks next year how you won you will have an intelligent answer. :happy


Good luck to everyone!

fd
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
adam1712
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by adam1712 »

2143.58
dh
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by dh »

1842.71
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Pocket Cruiser
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Pocket Cruiser »

2235.97
MerriebytheSea
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by MerriebytheSea »

1951.51
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Premier
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Premier »

2128.9
Own stocks, the course to stay; Hold bonds, for they will pay; Keep cash reserves for a rainy day.
tobyjoe
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by tobyjoe »

2055.82
couponhead
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by couponhead »

2316.00
Nielsva
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Nielsva »

1897.45
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LoudounGent
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by LoudounGent »

1942.57
JohnnyB
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by JohnnyB »

2117.43
Seeker26
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Seeker26 »

2306.33
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Topic Author
Taylor Larimore
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LAST DAY TO REGISTER

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

Reminder: Registration closes tonight at 12:00 ET.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
FRANK2009
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by FRANK2009 »

2095.00
Frugalman
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Frugalman »

2162.62
Pats_Fan
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Pats_Fan »

2187.95
It is what it is
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steve roy
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by steve roy »

$2383.38
minesweep
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by minesweep »

It looks like someone posted a DJIA guess (19,511).

Mike
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle | Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
Maid of the Mist
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Maid of the Mist »

2403.19
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noraz123
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by noraz123 »

2294.17
Mudpuppy
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Mudpuppy »

minesweep wrote:It looks like someone posted a DJIA guess (19,511).

Mike
Or they just like to be the outlier in the statistical data set.
Cash
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Cash »

2402.30
Bulldog
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Bulldog »

2006.22
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