I'm prepared to come in 2nd place.Regal 56 wrote:I picked 2161.845. You’ll be sorry when I beat you by .005. Trust the calculator and never round up.mickeyd wrote:I always go with an increase of 5%. That’s bound to be a winning strategy in 2015.
2161.85
2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Part-Owner of Texas |
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“The CMH-the Cost Matters Hypothesis -is all that is needed to explain why indexing must and will work… Yes, it is that simple.” John C. Bogle
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- Fat-Tailed Contagion
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2145.45
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” |
― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor (75/25 - 50/50 - 25/75)
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
For some inexplicable reason, I associate a relatively modest decline of the S&P500 in this coming year with an historically precarious year for so many in the world at large. The past is past but sometimes history rhymes in odd and unexpected ways.
1941
1941
Connect with Bogleheads in Northern California! Click the link under my user info/avatar.
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2062.5
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
1029.45
The information contained herein, while not guaranteed by us, has been obtained from from sources which have not in the past proved particularly reliable.
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2144.63 at 12/31/15 close
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Look how much this contest has grown since it's inception with another day to go:
2014–503 (14 experts)
2013–433 (11 experts)
2012–410 (14 experts)
2011–369 (6 experts)
2010–282 (10 experts)
2009–64 (15 experts)
2008–297 (13 experts)
2007–309 (12 experts)
2006–274 (12 experts)
2005–270 (10 experts)
2004–222 (12 experts)
2003–209 (11 experts)
I found it interesting participation dropped down to only 64 contestants in 2009. I guess we were too busy licking our wounds to play along in those days.
2014–503 (14 experts)
2013–433 (11 experts)
2012–410 (14 experts)
2011–369 (6 experts)
2010–282 (10 experts)
2009–64 (15 experts)
2008–297 (13 experts)
2007–309 (12 experts)
2006–274 (12 experts)
2005–270 (10 experts)
2004–222 (12 experts)
2003–209 (11 experts)
I found it interesting participation dropped down to only 64 contestants in 2009. I guess we were too busy licking our wounds to play along in those days.
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
1276.52
Thanks for the contest.
Thanks for the contest.
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Hi, it's a manual process where I have to take all of the entries posted in this forum thread and add them to the tracking site. It should have more entries today.Not Law wrote:Why are only 64 entries listed in the tracking site? And since mine is not, does that mean I am not registered?
--
ralph
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2,319.4645656
But that sounds high so I guess I should round down. Final answer: 2,319.46
But that sounds high so I guess I should round down. Final answer: 2,319.46
"All Roads Lead to Rome." "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world" - Einstein
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Sorry, I submitted twice.
Last edited by gffisher on Fri Jan 09, 2015 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2192.13
Regards,
Gordon
Regards,
Gordon
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
"Don't Count On It" that sounds like an excellent theme for 2015. Well, I heard a few had asked "how did I do it," For the answer to that I think you must read a book or two by Mauboussin to be able to untangle the skill vs luck equation. For me, honestly, I don't remember exactly how I did it, so that being the case, I don't imagine I will be able to repeat the feat.Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:
Financial Dave won our 2014 Boglehead Contest with his remarkably close guess of 2057.36. He has chosen Mr. Bogle's excellent book, Don't Count On It.
This year however I plan to use a method that can win for anyone, they only need to pick the correct multiplier (plus or minus) and apply it to their age (on Dec 31st 2015). In my case this multiplier is 2 times my age added to last years ending number which was 2058.90, so 63 x 2 = 126 + 2058.90 =
My guess of 2184.90
Sorry to the other 500+ entries who used some other method - I just hope you wrote the method out so when Taylor asks next year how you won you will have an intelligent answer.
Good luck to everyone!
fd
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2128.9
Own stocks, the course to stay; Hold bonds, for they will pay; Keep cash reserves for a rainy day.
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LAST DAY TO REGISTER
Bogleheads:
Reminder: Registration closes tonight at 12:00 ET.
Best wishes.
Taylor
Reminder: Registration closes tonight at 12:00 ET.
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
It looks like someone posted a DJIA guess (19,511).
Mike
Mike
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Or they just like to be the outlier in the statistical data set.minesweep wrote:It looks like someone posted a DJIA guess (19,511).
Mike