BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
- Taylor Larimore
- Posts: 32842
- Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
- Location: Miami FL
BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Bogleheads:
On January 1st the S&P 500 Index was 1848.36. At the end of November the Index was 2067.56 for a 11 month gain of +11.86% (not counting dividends).
These are our current Contest Leaders and their January guesses.
1 senhati 2053.50
2 RyanC 2053.52
3 camper 2053.31
4 bogleblitz 2053.00
5 nhdean 2054.00
6 Flobes 2054.18
7 EternalOptimist 2052.00
8 jf89 2054.98
9 sschullo 2055.00
10 JerryK 2051.60
2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
REGISTRATION FOR THE 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST (AND PRIZES) WILL BE DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN JANUARY ON THIS FORUM.
Best wishes.
Ralph Arvesen and Taylor Larimore
On January 1st the S&P 500 Index was 1848.36. At the end of November the Index was 2067.56 for a 11 month gain of +11.86% (not counting dividends).
These are our current Contest Leaders and their January guesses.
1 senhati 2053.50
2 RyanC 2053.52
3 camper 2053.31
4 bogleblitz 2053.00
5 nhdean 2054.00
6 Flobes 2054.18
7 EternalOptimist 2052.00
8 jf89 2054.98
9 sschullo 2055.00
10 JerryK 2051.60
2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
REGISTRATION FOR THE 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST (AND PRIZES) WILL BE DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN JANUARY ON THIS FORUM.
Best wishes.
Ralph Arvesen and Taylor Larimore
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Thanks for the update.
A couple of good weeks away from my projection:
60
cfs
2076.44
23.00
A couple of good weeks away from my projection:
60
cfs
2076.44
23.00
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
- EternalOptimist
- Posts: 829
- Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:21 am
- Location: New York
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Wow, optimism really does work
"When nothing goes right....go left"
-
- Posts: 1819
- Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 9:36 pm
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Wow, I'm into the top ten --- looking for sideways from now until the end of the year!
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
"It ain't over 'til it's over." Yogi Berra
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
-
- Posts: 1819
- Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 9:36 pm
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- Dec 9th
I see 1st place tomorrow, then it's over!
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Yep, been in first place a few times during the day as it bounced around 1990. Hope I'm not in the running any more!peppers wrote:"It ain't over 'til it's over." Yogi Berra
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
From #3 to #89 in 7 trading days. OUCH.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Just checked... I am at #10 today. Yahooooooooo
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Thanks Taylor. I'm now low and hoping that I won't win.
Steve |
Semper Fi
-
- Posts: 3181
- Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 4:33 pm
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
The situation has changed again. There I am #4, ha.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
I've dropped from 2nd to 210th in one week.
The market is fickle.
The market is fickle.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Oops. I'm in a four way tie for 4th.
Time to start a newsletter!
Paul
Time to start a newsletter!
Paul
...and then Buffy staked Edward. The end.
- White Coat Investor
- Posts: 17413
- Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:11 pm
- Location: Greatest Snow On Earth
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
6 more points down and I'm in like sin!
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy |
4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
If I can trust my memory, I thought my guess was optimistic. Absent a year-end crash, I should have been more optimistic.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
While I never won any year, I came up short almost every year. I must be a very pessimistic person
Good thing that I am boglehead.
Good thing that I am boglehead.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Just wanted to say what an honor and pleasure to close the day out in the lead. Just a few trading days left. Merry Christmas.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
-Andrew
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
-Andrew
- TheTimeLord
- Posts: 12130
- Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Congrats. I feel like at 2146, I still have a shot but will be a wee bit high.Drewman wrote:Just wanted to say what an honor and pleasure to close the day out in the lead. Just a few trading days left. Merry Christmas.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
-Andrew
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
If shipmate TL's number is 2146 then I want him to be in the top ten.TheTimeLord wrote:Congrats. I feel like at 2146, I still have a shot but will be a wee bit high.Drewman wrote:Just wanted to say what an honor and pleasure to close the day out in the lead. Just a few trading days left. Merry Christmas.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
-Andrew
5 - cfs - 2076.44 - 5.73
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
- cheese_breath
- Posts: 11787
- Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:08 pm
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
I don't want to be in the top 10 because that would mean a significant drop in the S&P.FinancialDave wrote:Wow, I'm into the top ten --- looking for sideways from now until the end of the year!
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
You're number one now, and I'm number 2. I think we used the same formula, but you rounded down and I didn't, so I'm behind by .24. Come on S&P 2089!teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line.
"Confusion has its cost" - Crosby, Stills and Nash
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Well, shipmate Teacher, it may go down, it may go up, that's the fun part, but, what about all those window dressers waiting for the last week of the year to pump up their portfolios with the 2014 winners?teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
-
- Posts: 1670
- Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:17 pm
- Location: 27,000 light years from the Galactic Center of the Milky Way Galaxy (the suburbs)
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Maybe the window dressers already did their buying.cfs wrote:Well, shipmate Teacher, it may go down, it may go up, that's the fun part, but, what about all those window dressers waiting for the last week of the year to pump up their portfolios with the 2014 winners?teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line.
MIke
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Good point by shipmate Mike, maybe the window dressers are on a plane heading home for a long Christmas break, let's break even for the next couple of days and call it an awesome market year. Merry Christmas to all.minesweep wrote:Maybe the window dressers already did their buying.cfs wrote:Well, shipmate Teacher, it may go down, it may go up, that's the fun part, but, what about all those window dressers waiting for the last week of the year to pump up their portfolios with the 2014 winners?teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line.
MIke
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
GoBlue wrote:
Formula? You have to be kidding. No rhyme or reason, just a wishful hunch. I see I have slipped already.You're number one now, and I'm number 2. I think we used the same formula, but you rounded down and I didn't, so I'm behind by .24. Come on S&P 2089!
- Random Musings
- Posts: 6772
- Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 3:24 pm
- Location: Pennsylvania
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Firmly at the bottom, but will most likely edge out Mel
However, although I made a bearish call for the year, my portfolio stayed the course.
Playing games are fun, playing with your portfolio is dangerous.
RM
However, although I made a bearish call for the year, my portfolio stayed the course.
Playing games are fun, playing with your portfolio is dangerous.
RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
- TheTimeLord
- Posts: 12130
- Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
I already have my number for next year and I bet I will be one lonely cowpoke with this prediction.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
My dad (RIP 2013) always said the market goes up and the market goes down. But it mostly goes up. Been staying the course since 1995. I'm glad to have the top spot even if it's just for a day.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
I don't think I am at #1 anymore
- Mel Lindauer
- Moderator
- Posts: 35782
- Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 7:49 pm
- Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
- Contact:
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
I've picked 1313.13 for years now (for no reason except the unlucky number sequence), and always hope that I end up at the bottom.Random Musings wrote:Firmly at the bottom, but will most likely edge out Mel
However, although I made a bearish call for the year, my portfolio stayed the course.
Playing games are fun, playing with your portfolio is dangerous.
RM
Best Regards - Mel |
|
Semper Fi
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
teacher wrote: Formula? You have to be kidding. No rhyme or reason, just a wishful hunch. I see I have slipped already.
This is what I meant by formula. We both came up with 13% as our number for the year.
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Postby teacher » Wed Jan 01, 2014 2:19 pm
2088
Another 13% rise in in our portfolio this year would be lovely.
I'm number 1 for the weekend. I'm sure that will change by New Years Eve, but am pleased to have been in the running at all. All luck of course, except for foreseeing $1.90 gas and that North Korea would hack Sony. Those things I knew were coming.
"Confusion has its cost" - Crosby, Stills and Nash
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Well, let me enjoy these few seconds
1
cfs
2076.44
0.56
In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
1
cfs
2076.44
0.56
In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it.cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds
1
cfs
2076.44
0.56
In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Well, shipmates, we are closing the year, and I think we have a winner !!!matjen wrote:WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it.cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds
1
cfs
2076.44
0.56
In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
-
- Posts: 1670
- Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:17 pm
- Location: 27,000 light years from the Galactic Center of the Milky Way Galaxy (the suburbs)
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Maybe next year.matjen wrote:WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it.cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds
1
cfs
2076.44
0.56
In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
Mike
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Ha! I think I held first place for probably 1 second with about 15 minutes to close. I will be sure to refine my calculations for next year. I'll come back better than ever.minesweep wrote:Maybe next year.matjen wrote:WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it.cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds
1
cfs
2076.44
0.56
In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
Mike
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
- EternalOptimist
- Posts: 829
- Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:21 am
- Location: New York
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Finished 20th.....not bad. Happy New Year!
"When nothing goes right....go left"
- cheese_breath
- Posts: 11787
- Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:08 pm
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
At least I made the top 20%. It would have needed to lose a lot more today for me to win.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014
Looks like congratulations are in order for FinancialDave (unofficially, of course). The contest is great fun.
I found myself in first place about 1:30 EST time today, and managed a screen shot to prove it. I was entertaining thoughts of journeying to NYC to be interviewed by Liz Claman. But since I finished 48th, I doubt she's interested.
Thank you Taylor for a very entertaining exercise!
I found myself in first place about 1:30 EST time today, and managed a screen shot to prove it. I was entertaining thoughts of journeying to NYC to be interviewed by Liz Claman. But since I finished 48th, I doubt she's interested.
Thank you Taylor for a very entertaining exercise!