flyingaway wrote:Do you buy a company's stock just because you believe that it will go up in a short time period, or because you believe fundamentally that the company is good?
If one of the largest companies on the planet isn't in any of the "total stock market" indices couldn't a committed total stock market fundamentalist add a few shares to compensate for the delay in the index munchkins getting their act together?
Many Chinese are simply the best pure capitalists I've ever known.
I believe this is true for many, although its the other ones that I worry about.
As far as the 1000 shares goes, I'd be very astounded if you got that allocation. I was able to get 1/20th of the indication that I gave, and it seems to me from the aftermarket action that that is probably typical for all but the largest institutions.
The company has some issues, but the metrics in general look extremely good.
OK. Not that up to date on the current shorthand. Yes, it has some of that element. But unless the statements are fraudulent (as someone else suggested) the metrics of alibaba are impressive.
moshe wrote:Isn't this a sign that a market top can't be far away?
People willing to risk 22B+ dollars on a "investment" product (ha!) where you have shares in a cayman island company that has a contact which entitles them to a share of the profit in some company who no one seems to know how it is structured and is really controlled at the whim of one man. And to top that all off the Chinese government could make that 22B+ go away quicker than the lobster i enjoyed last night.
No thank you.
This is going to make Madoff and Enron look small in comparison......They will be valued at 1/3 the market cap of Apple, 1/2 of Exxon Mobil and 3/4's the market cap of General Electric Company. Please, please, please tell me this is NOT going to be in any of the indexes I own!
I'll bet Warren and Charlie won't touch this with a 1000 mile pole. Perhaps they are taking the other side of the trade - Sell, Sell, Sell!!!!
If you think that this Cayman Islands shell company will have any real claim to future income from Alibaba, read how Jack Ma tried to separate Alipay from Alibaba to prevent Yahoo from having a claim to it. http://www.cnet.com/news/alibaba-yahoo- ... ipay-rift/
It will probably keep going up, and making people rich, until the Chinese government or Jack Ma decides the moment is ripe to separate the real company from the shell company for the maximum profit. Then a way will be found to cut off the money, and the shell company will be worth as much as Enron is today.
Les vieillards aiment à donner de bons préceptes, pour se consoler de n'être plus en état de donner de mauvais exemples. |
(François, duc de La Rochefoucauld, maxim 93)
yes I did all right on my 1000 shares of BABA, just as expected, sold 50% made 3K, holding on to 50% little greedy with my play money, if I make another 3K I will sell another 50% of the 50% remaining, and wait for another opportunity, if it was only so easy and so quick to make so much in Vanguard Indexes, or if I only had so much courage to bet my life on BABA, I'd be able to retire in a year
... Waiting for analogies to the story of Ali Baba, whos greedy (but well-to-do) brother went to take all the riches he could grab from the secret cave but couldn't figure out how to get out and lost everything.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
can't loose everything, at most 50% now, and all houses money, I call it gambling, and I only get a rush if I play big.... relatively speaking... big enough to enjoy the win, but small enough to sleep soundly at night...
Yesterdaysnews wrote:Care to reveal how you got an allocation? I tried with 3 different brokers that I family connections with and money with and got nothing.
I got in at 76.45, that's the best I could do... 1000 shares minimum and that's what I went for...
ArthurO wrote:I call it gambling, and I only get a rush if I play big.... relatively speaking... big enough to enjoy the win, but small enough to sleep soundly at night...
Actually if you are a little more observant of your own behavior I bet you see that isn't all. Gamblers typically get a rush when they almost win too. That's why they keep gambling. The rush of "almost" increases the payoff ratio. So even if you lose, you can still have that rush sometimes which to some people is exhilarating.
BornInCA wrote:I wonder how those who bought Facebook at IPO day fared
FB is over 2x the IPO price right now, so people who stuck with it have fared OK thus far. It stayed at about 50-60% of IPO price for over a year though, so not so good for people looking to make a quick buck.
Many Chinese are simply the best pure capitalists I've ever known.
I believe this is true for many, although its the other ones that I worry about.
As far as the 1000 shares goes, I'd be very astounded if you got that allocation. I was able to get 1/20th of the indication that I gave, and it seems to me from the aftermarket action that that is probably typical for all but the largest institutions.
The company has some issues, but the metrics in general look extremely good.
Grappler (love the handle) -
Agree on point 1.
On point 2, the 1,000 shares number wasn't mine ... I didn't disclose how many I received for the fund or for our personal account.
ArthurO wrote:I call it gambling, and I only get a rush if I play big.... relatively speaking... big enough to enjoy the win, but small enough to sleep soundly at night...
Actually if you are a little more observant of your own behavior I bet you see that isn't all. Gamblers typically get a rush when they almost win too. That's why they keep gambling. The rush of "almost" increases the payoff ratio. So even if you lose, you can still have that rush sometimes which to some people is exhilarating.
when I loose I got no rush at all, I am ready to kill somoeone lol
ArthurO wrote:I call it gambling, and I only get a rush if I play big.... relatively speaking... big enough to enjoy the win, but small enough to sleep soundly at night...
Actually if you are a little more observant of your own behavior I bet you see that isn't all. Gamblers typically get a rush when they almost win too. That's why they keep gambling. The rush of "almost" increases the payoff ratio. So even if you lose, you can still have that rush sometimes which to some people is exhilarating.
when I loose I got no rush at all, I am ready to kill somoeone lol
I believe it. It's adrenaline either way though and you are getting your fix.
1. One of my favorite Buffett quotes, "It's almost a mathematical impossibility to imagine that, out of the thousands of things for sale on a given day, the most attractively priced is the one being sold by a knowledgeable seller (company insiders) to a less-knowledgeable buyer (investors)."
Its Buffett, but it also 'feels' like something Bogle would say.
2. Shares in this company aren't what I actually consider stock. No voting rights, and very limited legal protection if they go bankrupt or disappear with the money. There is a reason Hong Kong refused to be the middle man.
3. To quote Flyingaway, "Companies in China can make their numbers look better. I have very deep China background and I do not believe in Ablibaba's growth story." This is not the first time I've heard the first sentence... not even the second or third time, its adding up. I have a college friend who went to China to review the books of a few firms for his US employer(auditing firm) on behalf of some major investors(I inferred hedge funds), and he said almost the exact same thing. When the GDP of all the municipalities combined is significantly different than the countries' GDP, when they have giant ghost cities but keep building homes for the sake of 7.5% GDP growth, and when college buddies go to the country to do 'auditing' and come back telling me every company has the accounting practices of Enron... I stay away.
Getting a big chunk of China business this way is great, but I can't help seeing parallels between the China of today and Japan of 1989. So the exciting thing about AliBaba would be if they make a solid go of it in Europe and the US.
This may turn into Ali Boo Boo. Aside from the recent articles about corporate governance problems, Cayman Island ownership, etc., note should be taken that Chinese domestic critics of Chinese ventures tend to be locked up by Chinese authorities for "economic defamation" (or something akin that). Also, I hope smiling Jack Ma doesn't suffer the fate of some Russian (and Chinese) tycoons.
What happened to the "one county, two systems" promise? It vanished. Overnight.
Too, too much political risk. Take your profit while you can.
ArthurO wrote:I call it gambling, and I only get a rush if I play big.... relatively speaking... big enough to enjoy the win, but small enough to sleep soundly at night...
Actually if you are a little more observant of your own behavior I bet you see that isn't all. Gamblers typically get a rush when they almost win too. That's why they keep gambling. The rush of "almost" increases the payoff ratio. So even if you lose, you can still have that rush sometimes which to some people is exhilarating.
when I loose I got no rush at all, I am ready to kill somoeone lol
I believe it. It's adrenaline either way though and you are getting your fix.
But I prefer adrenaline and money and so far it is mostly working out
My personal rule of investing: When everyone is talking about a stock it is time to sell. You want to buy stock in companies that have not yet been "discovered" by the hoi polloi.
I think its really easy for people to come on message boards talking about all the great single stock speculation trades they've made without seeming to remember any of the bad ones. Or talk about the gains they've had without factoring in transaction fees and taxes. From what I've seen, its not a sustainable strategy, but if someone has truly found the secret formula, I don't expect them to be bragging to me about it anyways...
"The problem with diversification is that it works, whether or not we want it to"
Bought some and will buy more when it goes down. Fundamentals are solid. Mucho revenue, profit- all in a relatively "immature" market with overall low penetration with regards to internet commerce. In 10 years will this be a more powerful, profitable company- yes, see you then.
Yes, "baba" can mean 88 (八八), a lucky number, but it also means father in Chinese.
I am neither going to talk excitedly about all the money I'll make trading this stock nor pat myself on the back for not trading it and sticking with index funds. There are enough of both those kinds of posts already. Don't you think?
Things won't look so pretty if the Chinese government decides that they want not just a piece, but all of the action.
I don't and will not put my money into any emerging markets country.
ArthurO wrote:yes I did all right on my 1000 shares of BABA, just as expected, sold 50% made 3K, holding on to 50% little greedy with my play money, if I make another 3K I will sell another 50% of the 50% remaining, and wait for another opportunity, if it was only so easy and so quick to make so much in Vanguard Indexes, or if I only had so much courage to bet my life on BABA, I'd be able to retire in a year
Something doesn't add up. You sold 500 shares for a profit of $3k, which is $6/share. BABA was above $90 all day Friday. This implies that you paid at least $84/share. But everything I read says the IPO was $68.
Is this what it takes to "get in" on an IPO, i.e. buying at least 23% above the advertised price before it even starts trading?
The bigger issue here, if I'm allowed to posit, is this:
In addition to a diversified, Boglehead approach... equities (even "hot" stocks) still have an important role to those investors:
1) willing to assume added risk for greater reward
2) have "play money" that won't jeopardize their portfolio
No doubt Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon have all surpassed the indexes in the last few years. I feel strongly that a lucky few can assemble a portfolio of these "hot" stocks, buy-and-hold, and do very well.
Can one select the good AAPL's from the bad? (Enron, Lehmen Bros)
I strongly believe yes.
- Stay away from sectors/businesses you can't explain to a 2nd grader (financials, derivatives)
- Mindful of market trends (the Cloud, smartphone advances, healthcare spending, 3D Printing, Robotic surgery, etc)
Kudos to those who are willing to take small risks, and profit from it.
SuperSaver wrote:Can one select the good AAPL's from the bad? (Enron, Lehmen Bros)
I strongly believe yes.
- Stay away from sectors/businesses you can't explain to a 2nd grader (financials, derivatives)
- Mindful of market trends (the Cloud, smartphone advances, healthcare spending, 3D Printing, Robotic surgery, etc)
Kudos to those who are willing to take small risks, and profit from it.
Are you sure you're not just mining the past? A friend of mine is heavily invested in Apple and Google and not much else, but even he admits he's been lucky, not shrewd. Enron seemed to be a good company and it was only later, too late, that investors found out what was really going on. You never know when someone's going to come along and eat Apple's lunch and it could have happened at any year in the past. It simply hasn't happened yet.
SuperSaver wrote:Can one select the good AAPL's from the bad? (Enron, Lehmen Bros)
I strongly believe yes.
- Stay away from sectors/businesses you can't explain to a 2nd grader (financials, derivatives)
- Mindful of market trends (the Cloud, smartphone advances, healthcare spending, 3D Printing, Robotic surgery, etc)
Kudos to those who are willing to take small risks, and profit from it.
Are you sure you're not just mining the past? A friend of mine is heavily invested in Apple and Google and not much else, but even he admits he's been lucky, not shrewd. Enron seemed to be a good company and it was only later, too late, that investors found out what was really going on. You never know when someone's going to come along and eat Apple's lunch and it could have happened at any year in the past. It simply hasn't happened yet.
+1!!! yeah, in hindsight Apple and Google don't feel like like, do they?! That is hysterical! I need to get me a few of these BABA (father) shares and hold them for a year or three just to see how lucky I am!
Could you explain to a 6year old how Enron made money? No. Hence, don't buy.
Can you explain how Apple, PG and Google make money? yes. Solid bet.
Do either company face cataclysmic headwinds at present? No. Solid bet.
Do they face competition? Yes. hedge by buying competitiors (or Sector ETF).
Time to sober up: Only the upper tier of the S&P500 has lifted the entire index. Be smart. Get rid of the dead weight, and invest (small amount) in the winners.
Could you explain to a 6year old how Enron made money? No. Hence, don't buy.
Can you explain how Apple, PG and Google make money? yes. Solid bet.
Do either company face cataclysmic headwinds at present? No. Solid bet.
Do they face competition? Yes. hedge by buying competitiors (or Sector ETF).
Time to sober up: Only the upper tier of the S&P500 has lifted the entire index. Be smart. Get rid of the dead weight, and invest (small amount) in the winners.
I think I'm starting to get it. You just invest in stocks that will appreciate in value, right?
SuperSaver wrote:Could you explain to a 6year old how Enron made money? No. Hence, don't buy.
If that's the criteria, I think I would have an easier time trying to explain to a six year old how Enron (supposedly) made money than I would Alibaba. Alibaba has many subsidiaries engaged in many different businesses. For example they run one of the world's largest money market funds. Are you buying an internet stock or a financial company?
And whereas I think I could explain what buying a share of most companies meant to a six year old, I would not try to explain what buying a share of BABA meant, as I still don't really understand myself.
ArthurO wrote:1000 shares at $75, it goes to 90 or more I sell, can't get it on 2ndary market for that price, I don't buy, I get it and goes down, hold it for long term, this is my gambling money....
Is risking $75,000 worth it to make $15k? I'd rather buy more shares of VTI.
The problem with VTI is that it is slow and steady, I expect BABA to fly high for a while because of all the hype, and making 15k from 75k in a week, what is this apy anyone? So please before you make a silly apples to oranges comparison think a little, and full disclosure I am a happy investor in VTI in my retirement account and I add to that position monthly
You can take $75k to Vegas, and make $15k in an hour... What's the APY on that?
Doesn't mean it's a good idea.
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
Could you explain to a 6year old how Enron made money? No. Hence, don't buy.
Can you explain how Apple, PG and Google make money? yes. Solid bet.
Do either company face cataclysmic headwinds at present? No. Solid bet.
Do they face competition? Yes. hedge by buying competitiors (or Sector ETF).
Time to sober up: Only the upper tier of the S&P500 has lifted the entire index. Be smart. Get rid of the dead weight, and invest (small amount) in the winners.
6 year old: How does Enron make money?
Adult: Energy! They manage energy sources and sell them to others.
How hard was that?
PS If you actually know what tier is going to be "upper" in the S&P 500, then you can easily beat the market. And yet beating the market is really difficult to do. Don't confuse a great company with a great stock (Coca Cola?).
Not a bad day for the stock unless you are the guy who paid $99.70 per share last Friday, you are already in correction territory (currently at $89.20 per share after hours, loss only $4.00 during regular hours).
Day's Range: 89.50-92.95
52wk Range: 89.50-99.70
Market Cap: 221.58billion
Are you buying yet? Just wait for Cramer to give his SELL signal, then you buy.
SuperSaver wrote:Time to sober up: Only the upper tier of the S&P500 has lifted the entire index. Be smart. Get rid of the dead weight, and invest (small amount) in the winners.
Just invest in the winners! Get rid of the losers! It's so simple... You should write a book.....
"Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." - Will Rogers
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yesterdaysnews wrote:Care to reveal how you got an allocation? I tried with 3 different brokers that I family connections with and money with and got nothing.
I got in at 76.45, that's the best I could do... 1000 shares minimum and that's what I went for...
How did you manage that? You a (very) big fish at some brokerage?
At 9 a.m. on Sept. 19, traders at the NYSE crowded around the counter of Barclays, Alibaba’s designated market-maker, in anticipation of the start of trading in which Alibaba would sell 320 million American Depository Shares. Initially priced at $68 per share, Alibaba’s share price started to surge before the public trading kicked off. The final opening price was set at $92.70 at 11:52 a.m. Afterward, the shares were publicly traded.
A source close to Alibaba said 25 large institutional investors got half of Alibaba’s shares in the allotment. The top 100 investors got 83% of the total, most of them U.S. institutions like Fidelity Investments, Blackstone Group