What's "The Herd" doing today?
What's "The Herd" doing today?
There is a common thread of advice in investment books to not "follow the herd". Including the well-known historical anecdotes:
- buying dot com stocks in the late 90's
- buying houses in the Nevada desert in 2006
- buying the "Nifty 50" stocks in the 1960's.
And we all know that Joseph Kennedy got out of the stock market based on hearing stock tips from his shoe shine boy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr.
The only guess I have is that at least a portion of The Herd is being cautious.
My sources:
1. people at work who I haven't heard talk about "the market" saying things like, "you know, stocks have only been higher twice before in all history."
2. Loads of Shiller CAPE threads everywhere.
So, what do you think The Herd is doing today?
Please cite your sources. Bonus points if it's your shoe shine boy.
- buying dot com stocks in the late 90's
- buying houses in the Nevada desert in 2006
- buying the "Nifty 50" stocks in the 1960's.
And we all know that Joseph Kennedy got out of the stock market based on hearing stock tips from his shoe shine boy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr.
The only guess I have is that at least a portion of The Herd is being cautious.
My sources:
1. people at work who I haven't heard talk about "the market" saying things like, "you know, stocks have only been higher twice before in all history."
2. Loads of Shiller CAPE threads everywhere.
So, what do you think The Herd is doing today?
Please cite your sources. Bonus points if it's your shoe shine boy.
"So, what would have been so terrible if I had a small fortune?"
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
1. Don't buy any securities. Everything is at an all-time high.
Source: people I interact with
Source: people I interact with
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Santayana
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"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
They are buying Master Limited Partnerships for the (relatively) high dividends.
Source: The topics listed under "Dividend Strategy" on Seeking Alpha.
Source: The topics listed under "Dividend Strategy" on Seeking Alpha.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I have read that index investing in general, and investing with Vanguard in particular, are becoming more and more popular. http://online.wsj.com/articles/investor ... 1408579101
From this, I conclude the herd is moving from actively managed to index fund investing.
From this, I conclude the herd is moving from actively managed to index fund investing.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
The world is piling into the safest (most "credit worthy") assets, namely US stocks and US treasury bonds. At least that is what I hear "The Herd" saying.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I think a lot of the herd got the mentality that the stock market is rigged and didn't want any part of it after 2008. Now that feeling is wearing off as people see the massive gains they have missed out on. The evidence is the "I've had 500k sitting in the bank afraid of getting into the market" threads.
I also believe the herd is moving towards indexing. It probably wont be long before we see a major brokerage house run an ad campaign about slashed fees on their award winning morningstar ranked lipper average beating funds
I also believe the herd is moving towards indexing. It probably wont be long before we see a major brokerage house run an ad campaign about slashed fees on their award winning morningstar ranked lipper average beating funds
Last edited by barnaclebob on Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Check in with the local Yenta in your neighborhood.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I think the herd is paying ~7.5% more for S&P 500 earnings than 1 year ago and ~14.5% more than forward estimates.Reb Tevye wrote:So, what do you think The Herd is doing today?
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... yield.html
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Following the herd is not a bad thing until there is no one left to join the herd.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
And those of us with MLPs thank them.DonCamillo wrote:They are buying Master Limited Partnerships for the (relatively) high dividends.
Source: The topics listed under "Dividend Strategy" on Seeking Alpha.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
MLPs, High Yield Bonds, Emerging Market bonds, etc.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Investors have always been told not to follow the herd. It's good advice, but what about investors following the herd to index funds?munemaker wrote:I have read that index investing in general, and investing with Vanguard in particular, are becoming more and more popular. http://online.wsj.com/articles/investor ... 1408579101
From this, I conclude the herd is moving from actively managed to index fund investing.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Momentum is the key - but a bubble must burst.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
People around me - friends, neighbours, co-workers - seem not to talk or be interested too much on the stock market nowadays. I can tell you I have not heard from anyone specifically highlighting a certain stock, fund, industry segment, commodity, or any other financial tool which they think it would be stupid not too invest.
Instead I see them more interested in the real estate market. Some of them having done quite a bit of research into local areas, or having purchased or looking into buying a new house (normally bigger than their current one in more expensive neighbourhoods).
Instead I see them more interested in the real estate market. Some of them having done quite a bit of research into local areas, or having purchased or looking into buying a new house (normally bigger than their current one in more expensive neighbourhoods).
Trust yourself, Break the rules, Don't be afraid to fail, Don't listen to naysayers, Work your butt off. "It is in your moments of decision that your destiny is shaped. Choose now and well"
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Wow. Jack Bogle has explained the double hit by following that strategy. First one sells out at the bottom to cash and then misses the rebound.scone wrote:"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Herd =Lemmings?
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Following the herd is fine as long as you watch where you step.
Darin
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Buying penny stocks from The Wolf of Wall Street!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
What gets me is the inherent contradiction of this-- why do you need cash if the end is coming soon? What are you going to do with it?abuss368 wrote:Wow. Jack Bogle has explained the double hit by following that strategy. First one sells out at the bottom to cash and then misses the rebound.scone wrote:"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
The heard is and has been responding to Fed zero interest rate policy by buying stocks and avoiding long term bonds.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Moving away from the herd is very bad if wolves are stalking it.
Someone else said it, but the only big movement out there seems to be into index funds in general and Vanguard's in particular. Threads here about net cash flows into funds provide links. So following the herd isn't always a bad thing. The next biggest contingent is probably the post-2007/8 deer-in-the-headlights crowd afraid to do anything.
Someone else said it, but the only big movement out there seems to be into index funds in general and Vanguard's in particular. Threads here about net cash flows into funds provide links. So following the herd isn't always a bad thing. The next biggest contingent is probably the post-2007/8 deer-in-the-headlights crowd afraid to do anything.
Don't do something. Just stand there!
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
The only people I speak to who invest are currently with financial advisors (losing 1% of their portfolio in fees, plus another ~1% in Expense Ratio on a series of actively managed funds... no idea on loads).
Their advisors were jumping into housing, utilities, high dividend stocks, and high-yield junk bonds about a year ago, but I haven't heard anything recently.
Everyone else I know usually just says they go with the "default" plan for their retirement investments at their company (which I take to mean some combination of actively managed funds, index funds, and stock matching with some sort of hidden fees tied to their 401k plans).
Their advisors were jumping into housing, utilities, high dividend stocks, and high-yield junk bonds about a year ago, but I haven't heard anything recently.
Everyone else I know usually just says they go with the "default" plan for their retirement investments at their company (which I take to mean some combination of actively managed funds, index funds, and stock matching with some sort of hidden fees tied to their 401k plans).
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
"Spreading their risks around", according to this:
The 'Investor's Dilemma': Everything Is Expensive
http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-inve ... 1408993202
The 'Investor's Dilemma': Everything Is Expensive
http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-inve ... 1408993202
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Buy bonds if you want to fade what the investing masses are doing at the moment.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I have this same concern. I've been in index funds for a long time and I feel the herd has found me and followed me and now I'm part of them.Fallible wrote:Investors have always been told not to follow the herd. It's good advice, but what about investors following the herd to index funds?munemaker wrote:I have read that index investing in general, and investing with Vanguard in particular, are becoming more and more popular. http://online.wsj.com/articles/investor ... 1408579101
From this, I conclude the herd is moving from actively managed to index fund investing.
An elephant for a dime is only a good deal if you need an elephant and have a dime.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I'm not convinced that herd psychology is that much of a driver. Instead it is more of a cash flow issue.
The thing about the retail investing herd, is that when stocks are cheap they don't have the capital available to buy. When they have money available to buy because of an improving economy, the stocks are no longer cheap. As they pile in due to actually having some money available -- and the constant threat that their retirement savings is not adequate -- they end up driving asset prices beyond reasonable value.
The thing about the retail investing herd, is that when stocks are cheap they don't have the capital available to buy. When they have money available to buy because of an improving economy, the stocks are no longer cheap. As they pile in due to actually having some money available -- and the constant threat that their retirement savings is not adequate -- they end up driving asset prices beyond reasonable value.
Institutions matter
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
There is this enormous bull sitting in the middle of the herd, right on a huge stack of long treasury bonds. His name is Angus McFed.
Institutions matter
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I suppose the question is whether the increasingly large numbers of investors now moving into index funds qualifies as herd behavior. Investopedia defines herd behavior as "the tendency for individuals to mimic the actions (rational or irrational) of a larger group." That seems to mean going with the herd is not always bad and yet most of what's written about herd behavior is quite negative (and correctly so). My being primarily an indexer (so some bias there), I would say the "rational" reference refers to the "index herd."bungalow10 wrote:I have this same concern. I've been in index funds for a long time and I feel the herd has found me and followed me and now I'm part of them.Fallible wrote:Investors have always been told not to follow the herd. It's good advice, but what about investors following the herd to index funds?munemaker wrote:I have read that index investing in general, and investing with Vanguard in particular, are becoming more and more popular. http://online.wsj.com/articles/investor ... 1408579101
From this, I conclude the herd is moving from actively managed to index fund investing.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I continue to think the largest segment of "the herd" is standing on the sidelines. Having left the market at the beginning of the recession, they swore off stocks or are afraid to come back in. Most of the influx into index funds is coming from active management. Will it stay? Who knows?
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
The herd that I hang around with is becoming irrationally exuberant about houses again. Remember a very boring neighborhood party some years ago just before the housing price crash, only topic was how much $ they had made in house value appreciation. Starting to hear that again for first time.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Reb Tevye wrote: So, what do you think The Herd is doing today?
Please cite your sources. Bonus points if it's your shoe shine boy.
Probably grazing, source, the Farmer's Almanac.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I instantly assumed "The Herd" meant Merrill Lynch, the famous "Thundering Herd" commercials, and the slogan "Merrill Lynch is bullish on America."
I have come to believe that "don't follow the herd" doesn't mean "try to do the opposite," it means "stay the course."
I have come to believe that "don't follow the herd" doesn't mean "try to do the opposite," it means "stay the course."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I like this take.nisiprius wrote: I have come to believe that "don't follow the herd" doesn't mean "try to do the opposite," it means "stay the course."
For myself, whenever I try to contemplate the Herd, I get stuck trying to figure who the real drivers are behind the Herd. Because you have individual investors which could be your neighbor or shoe shine boy and then you have institutional investors. Who has more influence? How do you gauge institutional investors?
Better to stick to the plan, but I do enjoy the contemplation on this every now and then.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
For the under age 45 set I see the follow herd trends:
1) House flipping and "investment" real estate has become trendy again. Just look at cities that are rapidly overheating like Atlanta, Florida (various cities), Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc.. This time people are speculating with mostly cash and the hedge funds with other people's money.
2) Most people still seem wary of equities or simply don't have as much money to invest these days.
3) If people are investing they are putting money into things like individual start ups or tech stocks.
4) There's more entrepeneurial activity. People are building more websites or trying to get involved in niche internet media. We're approaching saturation here.
5) There's definitely a shift to passive funds over active funds.
1) House flipping and "investment" real estate has become trendy again. Just look at cities that are rapidly overheating like Atlanta, Florida (various cities), Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc.. This time people are speculating with mostly cash and the hedge funds with other people's money.
2) Most people still seem wary of equities or simply don't have as much money to invest these days.
3) If people are investing they are putting money into things like individual start ups or tech stocks.
4) There's more entrepeneurial activity. People are building more websites or trying to get involved in niche internet media. We're approaching saturation here.
5) There's definitely a shift to passive funds over active funds.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
It appears to be talking quite a bit about Zegna suits...
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Just what *is* it about Zegna suits?
I think "the herd" could quite easily be fond of equity index funds in a bull market, because bull market, and also because the *idea* is currently a bit fashionable.
That proportion of "the herd" that isn't truly on board with the rationale behind index investing could just as easily decide that index investing isn't "hot" any more - either because the exploiters of greed get out enough successful messages about beating the indexes, or because the market goes another way and the exploiters of fear have a pretext to sell some other investing approach because people got "screwed" by index funds.
Actually it's fear either way because it's the fear of looking like a chump - either some other guy is smart enough to beat the market and you're a chump to settle for matching it, or the other guy is smart enough to "get out" at the right moment and you're a chump for allowing a down market to touch you, however temporarily.
I think "the herd" could quite easily be fond of equity index funds in a bull market, because bull market, and also because the *idea* is currently a bit fashionable.
That proportion of "the herd" that isn't truly on board with the rationale behind index investing could just as easily decide that index investing isn't "hot" any more - either because the exploiters of greed get out enough successful messages about beating the indexes, or because the market goes another way and the exploiters of fear have a pretext to sell some other investing approach because people got "screwed" by index funds.
Actually it's fear either way because it's the fear of looking like a chump - either some other guy is smart enough to beat the market and you're a chump to settle for matching it, or the other guy is smart enough to "get out" at the right moment and you're a chump for allowing a down market to touch you, however temporarily.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
The "herd" is turning...wide and loose...better get out of the way!
Stampede a'coming!
Have a great holiday weekend.
Don
Stampede a'coming!
Have a great holiday weekend.
Don
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Yes, and if they are not on board with the index rationale, then they have blindly followed the herd in. They may be investing the right way, but they don't know why, so if the herd goes back out, they'll be right behind.gardemanger wrote:...
That proportion of "the herd" that isn't truly on board with the rationale behind index investing could just as easily decide that index investing isn't "hot" any more - either because the exploiters of greed get out enough successful messages about beating the indexes, or because the market goes another way and the exploiters of fear have a pretext to sell some other investing approach because people got "screwed" by index funds. ...
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Thanks everyone.
I mostly gather then there is no overwhelming herd mentality.
to summarize:
a bit of The Herd is balking/cautious about stocks because of Shiller
a bit of The Herd is chasing yield (MLP, Junk, EM)
Much of The Herd that is in stocks is indexing. But Indexing doesn't count as a bad Herd thing.
Some stragglers in The Herd got left behind in 2009.
Houses are getting flipped.
George Akerlof's pet nick name for Janet Yellen is "Angus McFed"
True Bogleheads stick to their plan and stay on their own course.
Is it coincidence that a good bull and a Zegna suit both cost about $7000?
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/how-much-good-bull-worth
I guess that's just the going rate to be a stud nowadays.
I mostly gather then there is no overwhelming herd mentality.
to summarize:
a bit of The Herd is balking/cautious about stocks because of Shiller
a bit of The Herd is chasing yield (MLP, Junk, EM)
Much of The Herd that is in stocks is indexing. But Indexing doesn't count as a bad Herd thing.
Some stragglers in The Herd got left behind in 2009.
Houses are getting flipped.
George Akerlof's pet nick name for Janet Yellen is "Angus McFed"
True Bogleheads stick to their plan and stay on their own course.
Is it coincidence that a good bull and a Zegna suit both cost about $7000?
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/how-much-good-bull-worth
I guess that's just the going rate to be a stud nowadays.
"So, what would have been so terrible if I had a small fortune?"
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
The institutional herd is into small value and liquid alts (think AQR type stuff). And if I'm not mistaken, that is the bulk of "the market"
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Nobody wants to touch long-term bonds.
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
I think right now the Thundering Herd is saying, "Beat Miami (Ohio)!"
Meet my pet, Peeve, who loves to convert non-acronyms into acronyms: FED, ROTH, CASH, IVY, ...
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
You can read this thought in more detail here: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=647560Middle wrote:For myself, whenever I try to contemplate the Herd, I get stuck trying to figure who the real drivers are behind the Herd. Because you have individual investors which could be your neighbor or shoe shine boy and then you have institutional investors. Who has more influence? How do you gauge institutional investors?
Better to stick to the plan, but I do enjoy the contemplation on this every now and then.
With another conclusion of course, I mean, this is Morningstar and he wants to keep his job.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
But with treasuries, at least, the yield keeps falling / price keeps rising. Doesn't that mean someone's touching them?Call_Me_Op wrote:Nobody wants to touch long-term bonds.
Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Being from Miami (FL), you made me look it up!22twain wrote:I think right now the Thundering Herd is saying, "Beat Miami (Ohio)!"
Saturday, August 30, 3:30 PM on ESP3
Fred C. Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio
Marshall
Thundering Herd
@
Miami (OH)
RedHawks
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
That is a good observation. For us, in previous times during our evil stock picking days, we would buy, sell, hold cash, thinking we were "better" or "smarter" than other investors. Once we came "home" to Vanguard and the all index fund approach, we had a completely different philosophy and strategy that served us well during the financial crisis: stay the course, and continue to invest. Securities are on sale!scone wrote:What gets me is the inherent contradiction of this-- why do you need cash if the end is coming soon? What are you going to do with it?abuss368 wrote:Wow. Jack Bogle has explained the double hit by following that strategy. First one sells out at the bottom to cash and then misses the rebound.scone wrote:"After the crash, I sold everything, and I'm still in cash. Because the end of the world is nigh." -- my realtor
Thank you Jack Bogle!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?
We have been buying more bonds than stocks this year because stocks have been on a tear. We are re-balancing to our asset allocation.JonnyDVM wrote:Buy bonds if you want to fade what the investing masses are doing at the moment.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."