How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

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Bacchus01
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How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Bacchus01 »

2013, at least the back half, was such a tear for the bull market. The first part of this year started very slow but is coming on strong lately.

Through the first six months our portfolio is up 17.2% (annualized) or about 8% YTD net. I attribute approx. 5.9% of that to additional contributions, and 11.4% to underlying asset appreciation. Better than I thought but we have been spoiled by the last few years.

We are 80/20 stock/bond

Since the beginning of 2011, our portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 17.94% (including contributions) so we're not too far off from the norm for us. But that includes a weaker 2011 and 2014 while 2012 was 22.1% and 2013 was 26.6%.

On a on a rolling 12 basis we are up nearly 28%. That shows how strong the back half of last year was.
Last edited by Bacchus01 on Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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kenyan
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by kenyan »

I do track my progress on a quarterly basis, though I only do rates of return annually. Since you asked, though, I'm up 16.5% YTD - not annualized, with just over half of that from contributions. My mid-year investment return, on an annualized basis, is a bit over 16%. Surprised that if this continued I'd be almost as well off this year as last year on a percentage basis. REITs leading the charge this year (after dragging me down last year).
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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Bacchus01
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Bacchus01 »

kenyan wrote:I do track my progress on a quarterly basis, though I only do rates of return annually. Since you asked, though, I'm up 16.5% YTD - not annualized, with just over half of that from contributions. My mid-year investment return, on an annualized basis, is a bit over 16%. Surprised that if this continued I'd be almost as well off this year as last year on a percentage basis. REITs leading the charge this year (after dragging me down last year).
Just on a YTD basis, my non-contribution growth is up about 5.3% whereas yours is about 8% (if I read that right). Nice!
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by TomatoTomahto »

YTD, I'm up 5.0% (returns, not including contributions). My bonds returned only 3.34%, so that's what held back the overall results. Whatever, it's well beyond inflation.
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Rodc
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Rodc »

7.25% not counting contributions (or more correctly, XIRR type return, not annualized, YTD)

60/40 more or less
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by RNJ »

Rodc wrote:7.25% not counting contributions (or more correctly, XIRR type return, not annualized, YTD)

60/40 more or less
Just to clarify, you essentially halved the xirr result (Jan - June)? Thanks!
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pennstater2005
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by pennstater2005 »

6.09%
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kenyan
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by kenyan »

Bacchus01 wrote:
kenyan wrote:I do track my progress on a quarterly basis, though I only do rates of return annually. Since you asked, though, I'm up 16.5% YTD - not annualized, with just over half of that from contributions. My mid-year investment return, on an annualized basis, is a bit over 16%. Surprised that if this continued I'd be almost as well off this year as last year on a percentage basis. REITs leading the charge this year (after dragging me down last year).
Just on a YTD basis, my non-contribution growth is up about 5.3% whereas yours is about 8% (if I read that right). Nice!
Yeah, I was surprised, but I definitely can't complain. 7.8% through 6/30, 8.3% through 7/1, computed using the assets I started the year with (strict XIRR would be a tad lower).
Retirement investing is a marathon.
livesoft
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by livesoft »

LifeStrategy Moderate Growth is a 60:40 portfolio that is up 6.0% through yesterday 7/1.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by TheTimeLord »

As of yesterday I have clicked off all my full year goals as my taxable account balance squeaked over the year end target.
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Ketawa
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Ketawa »

All calculations using XIRR. XIRR annualized returns listed first, then the converted YTD number.

Code: Select all

12.0%, 5.8% - Overall Portfolio

16.0%, 7.7% - Equities

16.1%, 7.7% - Domestic Equities
15.4%, 7.4% - Domestic SCV
17.7%, 8.4% - S Fund

15.8%, 7.6% - International Equities
14.9%, 7.2% - International Developed
12.6%, 6.1% - International Emerging
16.9%, 8.1% - VSS

3.6%, 1.8% - Fixed Income
2.4%, 1.2% - G Fund
4.0%, 1.4% - NFCU CD
5.7%, 2.8% - Mango/Union Plus/Santander
My retirement accounts are 80/20 post tax adjustment. These numbers are calculated pre tax adjustment and include my emergency fund, so it's more like a 65/35 portfolio.
Last edited by Ketawa on Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
jstash
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by jstash »

My Betterment (90/10) is up 7.9% over the past 6 months.
Last edited by jstash on Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
livesoft
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by livesoft »

Ketawa wrote:All calculations using XIRR and annualized.
Vanguard et al. do not annualize. Otherwise LifeStrategy Moderate Growth would have about a 12% number.
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midareff
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by midareff »

Retired in drawdown. Portfolio performance ... 7.34 YTD, 15.33% last 12 months. AA 45/52.5/2.5 equities/bonds/cash as of 7/1/2014. Domestic 22, Foreign 16, REITS 7.
After drawdown performance ... YTD 5.7% last 12 months 13.3%.

Smile boyz and girlz... we are in a bull run of historic proportions. Don't let recency color your vision, or your AA.
chw
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by chw »

Up 7.9%, not counting contributions. 70/30 stocks to bonds. REIT exposure helped deliver some extra return this year, after being a drag last year.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by origami »

What is the purpose of this thread? )
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by pennstater2005 »

I use madsingers monthly reports to follow my gains - LS G

Thanks Madsinger!

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Madsinge ... ly_reports
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daave
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by daave »

According to Vanguard > Personal Performance > Performance Details > Retirement Only:
1 year personal rate of return: 20.8%

Not sure how to get YTD, balances over time shows my taxable up 6.85%, Roth IRA up 139.36% and 401k up 74.46%, but a lot of the latter two are attributable to contributions.
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Ketawa
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Ketawa »

livesoft wrote:Vanguard et al. do not annualize. Otherwise LifeStrategy Moderate Growth would have about a 12% number.
XIRR does. I didn't bother to put in a YTD line for each asset class in my Excel spreadsheet. Maybe I'll add one.
livesoft
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by livesoft »

^If you make the last day 12/31/2014 in your XIRR() calculation, then I don't think it annualizes, but I am not sure.
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pshonore
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by pshonore »

It appears XIRR always annualizes the return. If the period is six months, the annualized return is more than double the six month return

calculated by (end val - start val)/ start val.

In other words it assumes your return will continue for the rest of a 12 month period to say it in non-mathematical terms
Last edited by pshonore on Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
Rodc
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Rodc »

RNJ wrote:
Rodc wrote:7.25% not counting contributions (or more correctly, XIRR type return, not annualized, YTD)

60/40 more or less
Just to clarify, you essentially halved the xirr result (Jan - June)? Thanks!
Yes, more or less. I did not actually use xirr, hence the use of "type" and 'not annualized" above. But yes, this is about half of what I would have gotten had I actually used xirr.

This is the number provided by Fidelity. In the past I checked this, after annualizing, to XIRR and they agreed. So it is a compound growth rate that factors in inflow and outflow as XIRR does, but is reported as YTD. That was a while ago, things could have changed, but that is my current understanding.

FWIW: a straight percent of current balance vs 1/1/2014 balance shows a little over 10% growth.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

6.4% YTD through July 1st. :shock:
I don't count percentage increase due to contributions.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by The Wizard »

I'm retired and withdrawing money from my 403(b) accounts. But they have nonetheless grown almost every month this year.
I'm not going to compute a percentage amount compared to 12/31/2013 because it would serve no purpose...
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Cottons
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Cottons »

5.82%
letsgobobby
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by letsgobobby »

Our net worth today is 10% more than 6 months ago. That's as much work as I'm willing to do for this thread!
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by feh »

6% for 1/1 to 6/30. Total return (excludes contributions).

70/30 portfolio.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Rick Ferri »

Honestly, I have absolutely no idea. I only calculate a return once per year (or less). Any more than that and I start "seeing things" that aren't there. :shock:

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vitaflo
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by vitaflo »

YTD return as of June 30: 6.21%

With contributions: 27.33%
lolbatross
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by lolbatross »

~100% equities. 11% of which is company stock.

Cumulative Portfolio change YTD - 16% => 35% annualized (XIRR). Factoring out contributions(& employers) my cumulative rate is ~8% => 18% annualized.

Company stock with held me down last year some, but is fueling my returns this year. More importantly I am still at a point where my contributions/company match account for a major chunk of portfolio growth. I find this motivating.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Longtimelurker »

I don't track enough data points to make an accurate calculation. I do have a data point on 7/18/2012. Since then I am up 64.09%, or 28.81% CAGR including contributions.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by tetractys »

Well, I'm around %75 stocks to %25 bonds. My ROI today for 2014 is %6.74. So I guess that's about %13 annualized.

Why include contributions; what's that got to do with returns? I guess it shows how well one saves, and a penny saved is a penny earned, right? Still, I think it paints a distorted picture, and it is best that the amount saved should be counted separately from returns. -- Tet
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Aptenodytes »

Seems bonkers to include new contributions as part of return. Someone starting out will have returns in the 1000s of percent.

This is functionally the same question as "what is your AA," but with less information conveyed in the answer. I could see asking the market timers this question, but not the rest of us.

Anyway, I do track this routinely so I can say I have YTD return, not annualized, of 6.0%, with 63% equities tilting to small value and approx 50% international on the equity side.
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Will do good
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Will do good »

Not a bad start to 2014- 6.86%
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by nfs »

7.6% so far not including contributions.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by ddunca1944 »

We are up 5.5% YTD (AA is 45/55)
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by midareff »

Ketawa wrote:
livesoft wrote:Vanguard et al. do not annualize. Otherwise LifeStrategy Moderate Growth would have about a 12% number.
XIRR does. I didn't bother to put in a YTD line for each asset class in my Excel spreadsheet. Maybe I'll add one.

Year over year may be more enlightening ...
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by letsgobobby »

tetractys wrote:Well, I'm around %75 stocks to %25 bonds. My ROI today for 2014 is %6.74. So I guess that's about %13 annualized.

Why include contributions; what's that got to do with returns? I guess it shows how well one saves, and a penny saved is a penny earned, right? Still, I think it paints a distorted picture, and it is best that the amount saved should be counted separately from returns. -- Tet
OP didn't ask about returns; he asked how I was doing. My doingness has nothing to do with which money came from growth and which came from savings. I'm 10% better off today than on January 1, no matter how the gains/additions were counted.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by IlliniDave »

I doing okay, personal rate of return of +5.9% YTD in my 401 as of 7/1 (Fidelity's calculation, not mine). Not sure how things are going at VG but probably fairly similar. I'm on track to meet all my saving/investment contribution goals for the year. Could be much worse.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Midwest Dave »

Excluding contributions, 7.8% YTD, 15.6% annualized. :moneybag
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by NAVigator »

This was the first time in my life where nothing went into my investments and nothing came out in this 6-month interval. Comparing spreadsheets, It is up 5.4% with an actual 62/38 asset allocation. Coasting in retirement and just using my checking account for now.

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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by sschullo »

NAVigator wrote:This was the first time in my life where nothing went into my investments and nothing came out in this 6-month interval. Comparing spreadsheets, It is up 5.4% with an actual 62/38 asset allocation. Coasting in retirement and just using my checking account for now.

Jerry
About the same here, only 27% equity and 73% bond. Very pleased with this year so far. About 40% of our Tesla cost has been made up in the last 2.5 months stock and bond market growth.
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sketchy9
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by sketchy9 »

Doing an XIRR I get 7.4% YTD return and 15.5% annualized. I'm around 60/40
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by placeholder »

I pay no attention to rate of return and stating aggregate growth doesn't mean much because that includes contributions.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by John Z »

Both 67, retired exactly 2 years with now a 42/58 modified coffeehouse portfolio (from 60/40) so up exactly 5.459% for first half of year. We sleep very well.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by sketchy9 »

tetractys wrote:Well, I'm around %75 stocks to %25 bonds. My ROI today for 2014 is %6.74. So I guess that's about %13 annualized.

Why include contributions; what's that got to do with returns? I guess it shows how well one saves, and a penny saved is a penny earned, right? Still, I think it paints a distorted picture, and it is best that the amount saved should be counted separately from returns. -- Tet
I'm not sure I understand your question re: contributions. Assume you had portfolio that started at $10k on January 1st, with $1k of contributions and $1k of gain in six months. The portfolio is now worth $12k; however, I don't think anyone would say you had a 20% YTD return on that portfolio. You have to calculate your return factoring in the contributions you've made otherwise you'll end up with an erroneous result. XIRR is the function that will allow you to do this, although you can also do this by hand. This post by madsinger helped me immensely to understand XIRR, returns, etc.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0#p1673692

I don't see how you can exclude contributions and expect to calculate the correct rate of return.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by chaz »

Doing very good so far.
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Buckwheat93
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by Buckwheat93 »

We are about 80/20 stocks and bonds and up about 5.5%, no contributions and after her RMD. We are optimistic since all the the forecasts at the beginning of the year for a stronger second half than first.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by pop77 »

Is there a mathematical way to 'un-annualize' XIRR? I use Quicken and their performance reports show only XIRR.
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Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Post by livesoft »

I think in Quicken if you change the data-range to be 1-1-2014 to 12-31-2014, then the report will be "unannualized".
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