Market Timing Predictions Thread

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
Topic Author
MrManlyMister
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:39 am

Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by MrManlyMister »

I'd like to start a thread here where people who like to predict the market timing can post their predictions publicly, then we can all come back and admire their skills later on, and learn from them how to time the market.

I'm thinking for proper skill assessment, you have to:
- make specific predictions at least one day in advance
- indicate in which direction the market will move
- indicate by how much it will move (percent of S&P 500, for example)
- indicate when it will move
- what you are doing in preparation for the move
- what has to happen for you to reverse your move

Comments on the list?
Anything else to add?
likegarden
Posts: 3181
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 4:33 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by likegarden »

wrong forum.
User avatar
InvestorNewb
Posts: 1663
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:27 am

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by InvestorNewb »

MrManlyMister wrote:... then we can all come back and admire their skills later on, and learn from them how to time the market.
If anyone knew how to successfully time the market, they would be the wealthiest person on earth.

This is akin to asking someone who wins on a roulette wheel "how did you do it?". It's all based on luck.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
Novine
Posts: 1240
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 8:07 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by Novine »

A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made that claim only to see the markets go higher. Eventually, someone will "call the market" but there's at least 100+ threads where the prognostication of an all-time high soon to be followed by a crash haven't been matched by actual market behavior.
User avatar
cheese_breath
Posts: 11786
Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:08 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by cheese_breath »

I see no value in this.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
bobbun
Posts: 159
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:38 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by bobbun »

It already exists, though you're a little late for this year.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=129539
Tom_T
Posts: 4837
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 2:33 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by Tom_T »

Novine wrote:A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made that claim only to see the markets go higher. Eventually, someone will "call the market" but there's at least 100+ threads where the prognostication of an all-time high soon to be followed by a crash haven't been matched by actual market behavior.
Just go back and search for all the threads that contain phrases "rates can only go up from here" and "bond market crash."
livesoft
Posts: 86078
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by livesoft »

Actually, there is quite a lot of value for a such a thread. We should be able to tell that folks who make certain predictions do no better than random chance. We should also see that the requests of the OP are ridiculous because even a great market timer would not be able to answer all the questions posed.

And there are misconceptions about market timing, too. One doesn't have to be "right" all the time. And one doesn't have to be right in a big way as long as one is not wrong in a big way as well. That is, one doesn't have to place big bets.

So I will remember this thread and make the rare prediction or two when I feel it is justified. Right now, I have no predictions, but I did rebalance into fixed income this week. Is that market timing?

So in preparation of my next market timing prediction/move, I am following my asset allocation plan of buy, hold, and rebalance.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
IlliniDave
Posts: 2388
Joined: Fri May 17, 2013 7:09 am

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by IlliniDave »

Here's a market timing action for you. I predict 30 years from today the markets will be higher than they are now, so based on that outlook forecast, I'm going to hold what I got and buy some more.
Don't do something. Just stand there!
countmein
Posts: 653
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:10 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by countmein »

I predict the 30 year TIPS yield will go negative within 2 years.
User avatar
cfs
Posts: 4154
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:22 am
Location: ~ Mi Propio Camino ~

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by cfs »

Prediction.

Market timing predictions? Just for the fun of it, here is my market prediction.

Before the end of 2014 we will see a market correction and this will cause the "should I do a lumper to bond funds or just dollar cost average" conversations to make a comeback to this forum.

And now back to watching the World Cup.

Thanks for reading.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
staythecourse
Posts: 6993
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:40 am

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by staythecourse »

Novine wrote:A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made that claim only to see the markets go higher. Eventually, someone will "call the market" but there's at least 100+ threads where the prognostication of an all-time high soon to be followed by a crash haven't been matched by actual market behavior.
That is not a bad idea for an ongoing thread where folks just post links from "experts" predicting stuff and then we can go back and see if they were right or wrong. We can even have a scoreboard keep track.

I will say doing some retrospective data collecting on such a subject would make a GREAT book to read. Have the clipping from the article and then what actually happened. The problem with market predictions is no one even looks back to see if someone was right or wrong. Of course, the one's who are correct will have no issues letting everyone know they got the call correct, but no one gains from calling out miscalls. Sort of a self reporting bias at work.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95696
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by LadyGeek »

We currently have two annual contests:

- REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST, run by Taylor Larimore.
Current standings are here: Bogleheads® contest (the link is on the left-side menu of the wiki)

- Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest, run by Norbert Schlenker.
Current standings are here: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List

It sounds like someone needs to start a spreadsheet to keep score. Post #1 could be used to contain the rules and a link to the spreadsheet - it's up to the OP. You can edit your post by clicking on the "Edit" button in the top right corner.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
acegolfer
Posts: 3029
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2009 9:40 am

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by acegolfer »

I predict market timers will underperform buy and hold total stock market.
bobbun
Posts: 159
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:38 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by bobbun »

acegolfer wrote:I predict market timers will underperform buy and hold total stock market.
I predict that some market timers will outperform. However, it will be impossible to predict which market timers those are in advance!
acegolfer
Posts: 3029
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2009 9:40 am

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by acegolfer »

bobbun wrote:
acegolfer wrote:I predict market timers will underperform buy and hold total stock market.
I predict that some market timers will outperform. However, it will be impossible to predict which market timers those are in advance!
I predict if I time market, I'll underperform.

It's not market timing, it's time in the market.
User avatar
baw703916
Posts: 6681
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 1:10 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by baw703916 »

I predict Dow 36,000 will happen in 2020.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
User avatar
NAVigator
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:24 am
Location: Iowa

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by NAVigator »

baw703916 wrote:I predict Dow 36,000 will happen in 2020.
I predict 2020 will happen. I can see it clearly.
"I was born with nothing and I have most of it left."
livesoft
Posts: 86078
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by livesoft »

Here was a prediction:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 4#p1848554

I do not believe predictions should be restricted to "the market", nor to just buying, nor to just selling, nor to percent moves, etc.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
rjm_cali
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:52 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by rjm_cali »

I predict that if I add a link to my Vanguard account on the firefox toolbar my investments will have gone down every time I click on the link.
Jack FFR1846
Posts: 18502
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 6:05 am
Location: 26 miles, 385 yards west of Copley Square

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

GE is at $26.73 right now. I bet it will be over $28 by the close
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95696
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by LadyGeek »

livesoft wrote:Here was a prediction:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 4#p1848554

I do not believe predictions should be restricted to "the market", nor to just buying, nor to just selling, nor to percent moves, etc.
Here's the content: Subject: VWO seems cheap right now Nov 07, 2013
livesoft wrote:I own lots of VWO and purchased some as recently as 9/30 at $40.17 with a windfall at the end of the quarter. However, the last RBD (Really Bad Day) was back in June when it could be purchased for under $37.

$40.71 seems too high to me.

My advice: Wait for the RBD.
VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, is currently at $43.60 (June 19, 2014).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
livesoft
Posts: 86078
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by livesoft »

And more about VWO and RBDs a couple of months later from the same thread:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 2#p1948392
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95696
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by LadyGeek »

Acronym decoder: RBD
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by 4nursebee »

What good could come of my accurate predictions? Perhaps I distract others from low cost index fund investing to try their hands timing the market or investing in individual stocks? That is not something I want to do and hence will not participate.

I agree with the 30 year outlook.
Pale Blue Dot
User avatar
Gattamelata
Posts: 269
Joined: Mon May 05, 2014 7:41 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by Gattamelata »

My market timing predictions:
  • Many people will time the market and will be hurt badly by it.
  • Fewer will time the market and profit. Some of those will conclude that they're smarter than the market.
Unfortunately, the only way I know to monetize my predictions is to become a broker :(
TheScarletPimpernel
Posts: 33
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:22 am

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by TheScarletPimpernel »

Here is a great example of what happens when you believe in the hocus-pocus called market timing courtesy of the pied piper of fools: Bob Brinker

Re:

January 5, 2012 Marketimer, Page3; Paragraph3; Brinker wrote: "Although we rated the stock market attractive for purchase in late September during the successful test of the August correction lows in the low-1100s range of the S&P 500 Index, we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach on market weakness at this time due to the rally that has occurred since the 2011 lows were successfully tested in the early autumn."
Every month since then, as the S&P500 climbed to today's closing high of 1959.48, Brinker has cautioned to "dollar-cost-average on weakness," but has never defined what he considers weakness.

In 2013, on Moneytalk and in Marketimer, he started using the word "vigilant" to describe his outlook on the market.

So the answer to Jim's question is that the S&P 500 has gone from 1257.60 to 1959.48 while Brinker advised DCA only on weakness all the way.


So as of today his subscribers essentially missed a 55% uptick by attempting to time the market.

The preceding from HoneyBee’s forum that tracks the exciting antics of Bob Brinker – market timer extraordinaire (said with dripping sarcasm).

http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blo ... money.html

As an aside, you my want to search the forum about ratings Hulbert assigns to the two Brinkers – things are not always as they appear.
TheScarletPimpernel
Posts: 33
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:22 am

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by TheScarletPimpernel »

On market timing:


They see heads here,
they see shoulders there,
those technical analyst see indicators everywhere.
Is the market trending to heaven or is it to plummet to hell?
Only the full passage of time will ever tell.



With apologies to Baroness Emma Orczi
livesoft
Posts: 86078
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by livesoft »

Did anybody act on this chart that I posted about a year ago?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... &p=1748564
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
User avatar
LAlearning
Posts: 1365
Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 12:26 pm
Location: Los Angeles

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by LAlearning »

I predict it will fluctuate.

Now what have I won?
I know nothing!
YttriumNitrate
Posts: 1093
Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:13 pm

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

Post by YttriumNitrate »

Prediction:

The Dow will break 100,000 on Tuesday June 21, 2034.
Post Reply