Market Timing Predictions Thread
-
- Posts: 62
- Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:39 am
Market Timing Predictions Thread
I'd like to start a thread here where people who like to predict the market timing can post their predictions publicly, then we can all come back and admire their skills later on, and learn from them how to time the market.
I'm thinking for proper skill assessment, you have to:
- make specific predictions at least one day in advance
- indicate in which direction the market will move
- indicate by how much it will move (percent of S&P 500, for example)
- indicate when it will move
- what you are doing in preparation for the move
- what has to happen for you to reverse your move
Comments on the list?
Anything else to add?
I'm thinking for proper skill assessment, you have to:
- make specific predictions at least one day in advance
- indicate in which direction the market will move
- indicate by how much it will move (percent of S&P 500, for example)
- indicate when it will move
- what you are doing in preparation for the move
- what has to happen for you to reverse your move
Comments on the list?
Anything else to add?
-
- Posts: 3181
- Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 4:33 pm
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
wrong forum.
- InvestorNewb
- Posts: 1663
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:27 am
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
If anyone knew how to successfully time the market, they would be the wealthiest person on earth.MrManlyMister wrote:... then we can all come back and admire their skills later on, and learn from them how to time the market.
This is akin to asking someone who wins on a roulette wheel "how did you do it?". It's all based on luck.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made that claim only to see the markets go higher. Eventually, someone will "call the market" but there's at least 100+ threads where the prognostication of an all-time high soon to be followed by a crash haven't been matched by actual market behavior.
- cheese_breath
- Posts: 11786
- Joined: Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:08 pm
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I see no value in this.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
It already exists, though you're a little late for this year.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=129539
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=129539
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Just go back and search for all the threads that contain phrases "rates can only go up from here" and "bond market crash."Novine wrote:A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made that claim only to see the markets go higher. Eventually, someone will "call the market" but there's at least 100+ threads where the prognostication of an all-time high soon to be followed by a crash haven't been matched by actual market behavior.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Actually, there is quite a lot of value for a such a thread. We should be able to tell that folks who make certain predictions do no better than random chance. We should also see that the requests of the OP are ridiculous because even a great market timer would not be able to answer all the questions posed.
And there are misconceptions about market timing, too. One doesn't have to be "right" all the time. And one doesn't have to be right in a big way as long as one is not wrong in a big way as well. That is, one doesn't have to place big bets.
So I will remember this thread and make the rare prediction or two when I feel it is justified. Right now, I have no predictions, but I did rebalance into fixed income this week. Is that market timing?
So in preparation of my next market timing prediction/move, I am following my asset allocation plan of buy, hold, and rebalance.
And there are misconceptions about market timing, too. One doesn't have to be "right" all the time. And one doesn't have to be right in a big way as long as one is not wrong in a big way as well. That is, one doesn't have to place big bets.
So I will remember this thread and make the rare prediction or two when I feel it is justified. Right now, I have no predictions, but I did rebalance into fixed income this week. Is that market timing?
So in preparation of my next market timing prediction/move, I am following my asset allocation plan of buy, hold, and rebalance.
-
- Posts: 2388
- Joined: Fri May 17, 2013 7:09 am
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Here's a market timing action for you. I predict 30 years from today the markets will be higher than they are now, so based on that outlook forecast, I'm going to hold what I got and buy some more.
Don't do something. Just stand there!
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict the 30 year TIPS yield will go negative within 2 years.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Prediction.
Market timing predictions? Just for the fun of it, here is my market prediction.
Before the end of 2014 we will see a market correction and this will cause the "should I do a lumper to bond funds or just dollar cost average" conversations to make a comeback to this forum.
And now back to watching the World Cup.
Thanks for reading.
Market timing predictions? Just for the fun of it, here is my market prediction.
Before the end of 2014 we will see a market correction and this will cause the "should I do a lumper to bond funds or just dollar cost average" conversations to make a comeback to this forum.
And now back to watching the World Cup.
Thanks for reading.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
-
- Posts: 6993
- Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:40 am
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
That is not a bad idea for an ongoing thread where folks just post links from "experts" predicting stuff and then we can go back and see if they were right or wrong. We can even have a scoreboard keep track.Novine wrote:A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made that claim only to see the markets go higher. Eventually, someone will "call the market" but there's at least 100+ threads where the prognostication of an all-time high soon to be followed by a crash haven't been matched by actual market behavior.
I will say doing some retrospective data collecting on such a subject would make a GREAT book to read. Have the clipping from the article and then what actually happened. The problem with market predictions is no one even looks back to see if someone was right or wrong. Of course, the one's who are correct will have no issues letting everyone know they got the call correct, but no one gains from calling out miscalls. Sort of a self reporting bias at work.
Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” |
-Jack Bogle
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
We currently have two annual contests:
- REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST, run by Taylor Larimore.
Current standings are here: Bogleheads® contest (the link is on the left-side menu of the wiki)
- Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest, run by Norbert Schlenker.
Current standings are here: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List
It sounds like someone needs to start a spreadsheet to keep score. Post #1 could be used to contain the rules and a link to the spreadsheet - it's up to the OP. You can edit your post by clicking on the "Edit" button in the top right corner.
- REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST, run by Taylor Larimore.
Current standings are here: Bogleheads® contest (the link is on the left-side menu of the wiki)
- Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest, run by Norbert Schlenker.
Current standings are here: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List
It sounds like someone needs to start a spreadsheet to keep score. Post #1 could be used to contain the rules and a link to the spreadsheet - it's up to the OP. You can edit your post by clicking on the "Edit" button in the top right corner.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict market timers will underperform buy and hold total stock market.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict that some market timers will outperform. However, it will be impossible to predict which market timers those are in advance!acegolfer wrote:I predict market timers will underperform buy and hold total stock market.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict if I time market, I'll underperform.bobbun wrote:I predict that some market timers will outperform. However, it will be impossible to predict which market timers those are in advance!acegolfer wrote:I predict market timers will underperform buy and hold total stock market.
It's not market timing, it's time in the market.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict Dow 36,000 will happen in 2020.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict 2020 will happen. I can see it clearly.baw703916 wrote:I predict Dow 36,000 will happen in 2020.
"I was born with nothing and I have most of it left."
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Here was a prediction:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 4#p1848554
I do not believe predictions should be restricted to "the market", nor to just buying, nor to just selling, nor to percent moves, etc.
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 4#p1848554
I do not believe predictions should be restricted to "the market", nor to just buying, nor to just selling, nor to percent moves, etc.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict that if I add a link to my Vanguard account on the firefox toolbar my investments will have gone down every time I click on the link.
-
- Posts: 18502
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 6:05 am
- Location: 26 miles, 385 yards west of Copley Square
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
GE is at $26.73 right now. I bet it will be over $28 by the close
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Here's the content: Subject: VWO seems cheap right now Nov 07, 2013livesoft wrote:Here was a prediction:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 4#p1848554
I do not believe predictions should be restricted to "the market", nor to just buying, nor to just selling, nor to percent moves, etc.
VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, is currently at $43.60 (June 19, 2014).livesoft wrote:I own lots of VWO and purchased some as recently as 9/30 at $40.17 with a windfall at the end of the quarter. However, the last RBD (Really Bad Day) was back in June when it could be purchased for under $37.
$40.71 seems too high to me.
My advice: Wait for the RBD.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
And more about VWO and RBDs a couple of months later from the same thread:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 2#p1948392
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 2#p1948392
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Acronym decoder: RBD
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
What good could come of my accurate predictions? Perhaps I distract others from low cost index fund investing to try their hands timing the market or investing in individual stocks? That is not something I want to do and hence will not participate.
I agree with the 30 year outlook.
I agree with the 30 year outlook.
Pale Blue Dot
- Gattamelata
- Posts: 269
- Joined: Mon May 05, 2014 7:41 pm
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
My market timing predictions:
- Many people will time the market and will be hurt badly by it.
- Fewer will time the market and profit. Some of those will conclude that they're smarter than the market.
-
- Posts: 33
- Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:22 am
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Here is a great example of what happens when you believe in the hocus-pocus called market timing courtesy of the pied piper of fools: Bob Brinker
Re:
January 5, 2012 Marketimer, Page3; Paragraph3; Brinker wrote: "Although we rated the stock market attractive for purchase in late September during the successful test of the August correction lows in the low-1100s range of the S&P 500 Index, we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach on market weakness at this time due to the rally that has occurred since the 2011 lows were successfully tested in the early autumn."
Every month since then, as the S&P500 climbed to today's closing high of 1959.48, Brinker has cautioned to "dollar-cost-average on weakness," but has never defined what he considers weakness.
In 2013, on Moneytalk and in Marketimer, he started using the word "vigilant" to describe his outlook on the market.
So the answer to Jim's question is that the S&P 500 has gone from 1257.60 to 1959.48 while Brinker advised DCA only on weakness all the way.
So as of today his subscribers essentially missed a 55% uptick by attempting to time the market.
The preceding from HoneyBee’s forum that tracks the exciting antics of Bob Brinker – market timer extraordinaire (said with dripping sarcasm).
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blo ... money.html
As an aside, you my want to search the forum about ratings Hulbert assigns to the two Brinkers – things are not always as they appear.
Re:
January 5, 2012 Marketimer, Page3; Paragraph3; Brinker wrote: "Although we rated the stock market attractive for purchase in late September during the successful test of the August correction lows in the low-1100s range of the S&P 500 Index, we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach on market weakness at this time due to the rally that has occurred since the 2011 lows were successfully tested in the early autumn."
Every month since then, as the S&P500 climbed to today's closing high of 1959.48, Brinker has cautioned to "dollar-cost-average on weakness," but has never defined what he considers weakness.
In 2013, on Moneytalk and in Marketimer, he started using the word "vigilant" to describe his outlook on the market.
So the answer to Jim's question is that the S&P 500 has gone from 1257.60 to 1959.48 while Brinker advised DCA only on weakness all the way.
So as of today his subscribers essentially missed a 55% uptick by attempting to time the market.
The preceding from HoneyBee’s forum that tracks the exciting antics of Bob Brinker – market timer extraordinaire (said with dripping sarcasm).
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blo ... money.html
As an aside, you my want to search the forum about ratings Hulbert assigns to the two Brinkers – things are not always as they appear.
-
- Posts: 33
- Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:22 am
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
On market timing:
They see heads here,
they see shoulders there,
those technical analyst see indicators everywhere.
Is the market trending to heaven or is it to plummet to hell?
Only the full passage of time will ever tell.
With apologies to Baroness Emma Orczi
They see heads here,
they see shoulders there,
those technical analyst see indicators everywhere.
Is the market trending to heaven or is it to plummet to hell?
Only the full passage of time will ever tell.
With apologies to Baroness Emma Orczi
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Did anybody act on this chart that I posted about a year ago?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... &p=1748564
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... &p=1748564
- LAlearning
- Posts: 1365
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 12:26 pm
- Location: Los Angeles
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
I predict it will fluctuate.
Now what have I won?
Now what have I won?
I know nothing!
-
- Posts: 1093
- Joined: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:13 pm
Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Prediction:
The Dow will break 100,000 on Tuesday June 21, 2034.
The Dow will break 100,000 on Tuesday June 21, 2034.