Panic! 101

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pkcrafter
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Panic! 101

Post by pkcrafter »

This is a panic primer. This link is to an article on the coming market crash. Read it and see how it makes you feel. Undisturbed? Nervous? Worried? Alarmed?

This is the kind of article that causes trouble. Notice how it's written, there is certainty and credibility. The predictor is a scientist. Credibility.
Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.
More credibility
His shocking forecast is based on a new alarming pattern he’s identified — he’s calling it “a dreaded triple top”
Shocking, alarming, dreaded. Scare tactic.
This proven pattern suggests...

Unfortunately, Martenson is not the only economist predicting a massive, historic meltdown. In fact, his figures are conservative compared to other experts in his field.
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Financ ... /id/494569/

And on it goes. This type of article is meant to scare you. Are you scared? Concerned? In the throws of a market crash, even at the bottom, articles like this are everywhere, and they are scary.

One other thing to keep in mind--events and data do not cause market crashes--investor behavior does. In strong markets like we are experiencing now, investors claim they won't sell in a crash, but the record can't be ignored--the market goes down because investors sell. Last thing to remember is when the market drops by 50%, it is the share price that drops, you do not lose any of your shares. So, the best you can do is continue to hold your shares and wait for sentiment to reverse and investors start raising prices again. But don't fool yourself, it is very difficult to watch your hard-earned money disappear. After graduating Panic 101, maybe you'll be a little more prepared. Get used to stuff like the linked article and DO NOT sell when markets drop. If the article concerns you at all, check your asset allocation to be sure you not exposed to a level of risk you may not be able to handle.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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VictoriaF
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by VictoriaF »

pkcrafter wrote:This is a panic primer. This link is to an article on the coming market crash. Read it and see how it makes you feel. Undisturbed? Nervous? Worried? Alarmed?

This is the kind of article that causes trouble. Notice how it's written, there is certainty and credibility. The predictor is a scientist. Credibility.
Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.
More credibility
To further his credibility Martenson should consult for Fortune 500 cookies. I predict a spike in panic eating.

Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake | Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
The Wizard
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by The Wizard »

Those NewsMax websites are full of this sort of stuff.
There's a certain survivalist, disaster-predicting mentality out there and once I peg a source being in that area, it's easy to ignore.

And note that the real date on this article is March 2013...
Last edited by The Wizard on Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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chaz
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by chaz »

VictoriaF wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:This is a panic primer. This link is to an article on the coming market crash. Read it and see how it makes you feel. Undisturbed? Nervous? Worried? Alarmed?

This is the kind of article that causes trouble. Notice how it's written, there is certainty and credibility. The predictor is a scientist. Credibility.
Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.
More credibility
To further his credibility Martenson should consult for Fortune 500 cookies. I predict a spike in panic eating.

Victoria
A black swan? 8-)
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
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VictoriaF
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by VictoriaF »

chaz wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:This is a panic primer. This link is to an article on the coming market crash. Read it and see how it makes you feel. Undisturbed? Nervous? Worried? Alarmed?

This is the kind of article that causes trouble. Notice how it's written, there is certainty and credibility. The predictor is a scientist. Credibility.
Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.
More credibility
To further his credibility Martenson should consult for Fortune 500 cookies. I predict a spike in panic eating.

Victoria
A black swan? 8-)
Nope. It's a Victoria's secret revealed.

Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake | Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
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rob
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by rob »

Meh... I would love to NOT be invested in the market but I have to get the money somehow and short of robbing banks, becoming a real estate flipper (or becoming CEO of something, which is essentially the same thing as robbing a bank).... It's the only viable option.

I have the best plan I can work out and hold my nose for the smell and stick my fingers in my ears at the noise...... I'm just never going to earn enough to fund my retirement with 0% something bank accounts.
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien
chaz
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by chaz »

VictoriaF wrote:
chaz wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:This is a panic primer. This link is to an article on the coming market crash. Read it and see how it makes you feel. Undisturbed? Nervous? Worried? Alarmed?

This is the kind of article that causes trouble. Notice how it's written, there is certainty and credibility. The predictor is a scientist. Credibility.
Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.
More credibility
To further his credibility Martenson should consult for Fortune 500 cookies. I predict a spike in panic eating.

Victoria
A black swan? 8-)
Nope. It's a Victoria's secret revealed.

Victoria
But you can't eat computer cookies.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
beammeupscotty
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by beammeupscotty »

"he is predicting a 60% stock market collapse will strike in the next three months."

Article originally posted in March 2013.

Oops. So much for credibility.
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VictoriaF
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by VictoriaF »

chaz wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
chaz wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:This is a panic primer. This link is to an article on the coming market crash. Read it and see how it makes you feel. Undisturbed? Nervous? Worried? Alarmed?

This is the kind of article that causes trouble. Notice how it's written, there is certainty and credibility. The predictor is a scientist. Credibility.
Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.
More credibility
VictoriaF wrote:To further his credibility Martenson should consult for Fortune 500 cookies. I predict a spike in panic eating.

Victoria
A black swan? 8-)
Nope. It's a Victoria's secret revealed.

Victoria
But you can't eat computer cookies.
I will eat them if they promise a fortune.

Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake | Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
synpacket
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by synpacket »

I'm freaking out!
hicabob
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by hicabob »

" His shocking forecast is based on a new alarming pattern he’s identified — he’s calling it “a dreaded triple top” "

That's pretty good - a "new alarming pattern" - yet already "dreaded"!

I'm more worried about the possibly impending "petrifying quadruple top" personally.
MrManlyMister
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by MrManlyMister »

beammeupscotty wrote:"he is predicting a 60% stock market collapse will strike in the next three months."

Article originally posted in March 2013.

Oops. So much for credibility.
LOL!
Asked if he is concerned if Wiedemer’s predictions don’t come true, DeHoog replied, “Absolutely not. The best-case scenario is that Wiedemer is wrong.

“Unfortunately, he has been dead-on thus far. No, our real concern is this, and it’s the more likely scenario — what if just half of Wiedemer’s predictions come true? Bottom line, it is imperative that Americans be prepared, and that is why we will continue to air this powerful interview.”
So I guess we can't say "dead-on thus far" any longer...
MrManlyMister
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by MrManlyMister »

hicabob wrote:" His shocking forecast is based on a new alarming pattern he’s identified — he’s calling it “a dreaded triple top” "
When they toss in the word "dreaded", you know it's got to be serious!
Here's a dreaded/serious one from 2012:

http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-triple-top-2012-8
Last edited by MrManlyMister on Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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VictoriaF
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by VictoriaF »

MrManlyMister wrote:
hicabob wrote:" His shocking forecast is based on a new alarming pattern he’s identified — he’s calling it “a dreaded triple top” "
When they toss in the word "dreaded", you know it's got to be serious!
Do you mean that "dread serious" beats "dead serious"?

Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake | Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
MrManlyMister
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by MrManlyMister »

VictoriaF wrote:Do you mean that "dread serious" beats "dead serious"?

Victoria
That was seriously dreadful.
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Clearly_Irrational
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by Clearly_Irrational »

I'm not opposed to the idea of market patterns, and it's true that the triple top is a legitimate reversal signal, however the analyst has made a serious error. He's using the S&P 500 as his index, which means the first top was around 1527 and the second top was around 1557, so you could have made an argument that a third top in the high 1500s would be confirmed if we didn't break past that. The normal ATR for the last several years has been around 15 so any reading higher than 1572 or so had to be considered a breakout rather than a confirmation of the pattern. The current reading for the S&P 500 is about 1945 so essentially he's either way behind in his chart reading or he's incompetent. If you're going to do technical analysis at least do it properly.
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by MrManlyMister »

Did anyone else click the link to the "five indisputable charts" which back up these predictions?

Imagine my disappointment...
When the host of the interview expressed disbelief in Wiedemer’s claims, he calmly displayed five indisputable charts to back up his predictions (click here to see those exact charts).
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pkcrafter
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by pkcrafter »

Article originally posted in March 2013.
Ahh, the Bogleheads are very perceptive. This only reinforces the point about articles that try to create panic. The article I linked was written in June, 2014, but the forecast discussed was in May 2013. Did Martenson miss on his forecast? Of course not, he just missed the date by a bit because... Fill in plausible excuse here. All the more reason to not listen to this noise. In the bottom of a severe drawdown, this stuff will shake your resolve. The take-away lesson is most of it is intended to do just that.

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
surfstar
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by surfstar »

On a side note, the chart drawer has now taken up weather forecasting

Image
The Wizard
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by The Wizard »

pkcrafter wrote:
Article originally posted in March 2013.
Ahh, the Bogleheads are very perceptive. This only reinforces the point about articles that try to create panic. The article I linked was written in June, 2014, but the forecast discussed was in May 2013. Did Martenson miss on his forecast? Of course not, he just missed the date by a bit because... Fill in plausible excuse here. All the more reason to not listen to this noise. In the bottom of a severe drawdown, this stuff will shake your resolve. The take-away lesson is most of it is intended to do just that.

Paul
It was NOT written this month; it was written 15 months ago.
The current date is just a way NewsMax websites try to deceive readers into thinking it's a current article, see?
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manwithnoname
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by manwithnoname »

I am still waiting for 2013's stock market crash.

http://www.worststockmarketcrashes.com/ ... e-of-3000/

There is an article posted every 15 minutes on the next stock market crash.
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by goblue100 »

manwithnoname wrote:I am still waiting for 2013's stock market crash.

http://www.worststockmarketcrashes.com/ ... e-of-3000/

There is an article posted every 15 minutes on the next stock market crash.
Thanks for that link. From one of the linked articles from last year:
"So, for April 2013 — we have the “Crash of 1929″ search term climbing once again but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is making new highs — looking through the data, we should have the next stock market correction finishing up by August 2013. If no stock market correction occurs, watch out for September 2013"

If you are going to predict, do it often. One will be right eventually.
"Confusion has its cost" - Crosby, Stills and Nash
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HomerJ
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by HomerJ »

Clearly_Irrational wrote:If you're going to do technical analysis at least do it properly.
Isn't that a lot like saying "If you're going to make an astrological prediction, at least do it properly."?
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Clearly_Irrational
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by Clearly_Irrational »

HomerJ wrote:
Clearly_Irrational wrote:If you're going to do technical analysis at least do it properly.
Isn't that a lot like saying "If you're going to make an astrological prediction, at least do it properly."?
No. Technical Analysis is as legitimate as Fundamental Analysis, the fact that neither of them manage to beat index funds after tax and fees is beside the point.
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by Clearly_Irrational »

pkcrafter wrote:The article I linked was written in June, 2014, but the forecast discussed was in May 2013.
Ahh, I missed that part. I did check the date on the article but I didn't realize the forecast was from earlier. His analysis would still have been wrong any time after Apr 26th 2013 or so when the S&P 500 hit 1588.
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pkcrafter
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by pkcrafter »

The Wizard wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:
Article originally posted in March 2013.
Ahh, the Bogleheads are very perceptive. This only reinforces the point about articles that try to create panic. The article I linked was written in June, 2014, but the forecast discussed was in May 2013. Did Martenson miss on his forecast? Of course not, he just missed the date by a bit because... Fill in plausible excuse here. All the more reason to not listen to this noise. In the bottom of a severe drawdown, this stuff will shake your resolve. The take-away lesson is most of it is intended to do just that.

Paul
It was NOT written this month; it was written 15 months ago.
The current date is just a way NewsMax websites try to deceive readers into thinking it's a current article, see?
No, I don't see, please clue me in. How do I know the posted article was written 15 months ago? I don't disagree, but how do I confirm the article was not written on the date cited?

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by The Wizard »

pkcrafter wrote:
The Wizard wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:
Article originally posted in March 2013.
Ahh, the Bogleheads are very perceptive. This only reinforces the point about articles that try to create panic. The article I linked was written in June, 2014, but the forecast discussed was in May 2013. Did Martenson miss on his forecast? Of course not, he just missed the date by a bit because... Fill in plausible excuse here. All the more reason to not listen to this noise. In the bottom of a severe drawdown, this stuff will shake your resolve. The take-away lesson is most of it is intended to do just that.

Paul
It was NOT written this month; it was written 15 months ago.
The current date is just a way NewsMax websites try to deceive readers into thinking it's a current article, see?
No, I don't see, please clue me in. How do I know the posted article was written 15 months ago? I don't disagree, but how do I confirm the article was not written on the date cited?

Paul
The date is in the URL, among other things. And the S&P 500 is current up to March 2013 only...
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Clearly_Irrational
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by Clearly_Irrational »

pkcrafter wrote:No, I don't see, please clue me in. How do I know the posted article was written 15 months ago? I don't disagree, but how do I confirm the article was not written on the date cited?

Paul
Just went and checked, I don't see it either. It looks like it was written 10 June 2014 and there aren't any links or references to suggest otherwise.
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by Clearly_Irrational »

The Wizard wrote:The date is in the URL, among other things. And the S&P 500 is current up to March 2013 only...
Ok, I do see the URL info and the 2013 copyright on the chart.
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by The Wizard »

Clearly_Irrational wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:No, I don't see, please clue me in. How do I know the posted article was written 15 months ago? I don't disagree, but how do I confirm the article was not written on the date cited?

Paul
Just went and checked, I don't see it either. It looks like it was written 10 June 2014 and there aren't any links or references to suggest otherwise.
Also note that the date/time below the title updates to exactly 24 hours ago.
Refresh your screen by hitting F5 after a while and watch the time update...
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beammeupscotty
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by beammeupscotty »

Clearly_Irrational wrote:
The Wizard wrote:The date is in the URL, among other things. And the S&P 500 is current up to March 2013 only...
Ok, I do see the URL info and the 2013 copyright on the chart.
Web Archive first crawled it in June 2013, so it's been around at least that long.
http://web.archive.org/web/201306141729 ... /id/494569
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by minesweep »

Martenson’s research suggests that the stock market has patterns
The only patterns I trust are on quilts (they look pretty too).

Mike
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by chaz »

MrManlyMister wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:Do you mean that "dread serious" beats "dead serious"?

Victoria
That was seriously dreadful.
But very funny.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by Tigermoose »

This guy also predicted that Peak Oil was immanent and would have a severe impact on the economy---that was before fracking. Whoops.
Institutions matter
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by Rob5TCP »

Actually he was quite right - the market did crash (he just got the direction wrong). It crashed going up.
From 1575 at the end of June, 2013 to 1920 the end of December.

If he keeps making these predictions, sooner or later he will get one of them correct.
In the meantime, it sells product and that's all "that matters"
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by peppers »

My doctor has advised me against the dreaded triple top....dark chocolate, chocolate mint and chocolate chip on a waffle cone.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
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Re: PANIC! 101

Post by baw703916 »

beammeupscotty wrote:"he is predicting a 60% stock market collapse will strike in the next three months."

Article originally posted in March 2013.

Oops. So much for credibility.
OK, that explains the following:
... current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ...
I don't feel inclined to believe someone who either doesn't know who the current Fed chair is, or didn't bother to update last year's unfulfilled prediction!
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
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Re: Panic! 101

Post by abuss368 »

Thank you for providing. I would like to hear from Rick Ferri and Taylor on this one!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: Panic! 101

Post by Sheepdog »

Newsmax :thumbsdown :thumbsdown
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"Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse"

Post by Taylor Larimore »

abuss368 wrote:Thank you for providing. I would like to hear from Rick Ferri and Taylor on this one!
Abuss368:
Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse
Two kinds of writers make statements like this: 1) The uninformed. 2) The self-serving.
After nearly fifty years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it consistently. -- Jack Bogle
Bogleheads stay-the-course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: "Scientist Predicts 60% Market Collapse"

Post by abuss368 »

Taylor Larimore wrote:
abuss368 wrote:Thank you for providing. I would like to hear from Rick Ferri and Taylor on this one!
Abuss368:

Two kinds of writers make statements like this: 1) The uninformed. 2) The self-serving.
After nearly fifty years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it consistently. -- Jack Bogle
Bogleheads stay-the-course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Thanks Taylor!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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