Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

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YoungBoglehead
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Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by YoungBoglehead »

I actually almost didn't make this thread because I'm pretty sure I know the answer

Buying in a dip is trying to time the market. So I'm sure the answer is no.


However I'm just wondering, does anybody here see a dip like me and think it's a good time to add extra into the market?
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by bengal22 »

might be, might not
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Boglenaut »

It's so small it makes no difference.

I rebalance every paycheck... thought I'd be buying bonds but instead turned out there was no need.. market rebalanced for me.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by VictoriaF »

You should buy low and sell high. The big question is "Is this market low?" It is lower than it was a week ago, but is it low? The answer is that the current market price incorporates all the available information and there is no way of knowing what the market will do next.

One way of dealing with uncertainty is rebalancing by the bands. If the last week's drop has resulted in your stock holdings dropping below the threshold of the band, you could buy some stocks to get back to that band.

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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by JW-Retired »

If it dips down to something that smells significant, I will certainly use it a buying point for the grandkids 529s. Long way still to go for that.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by livesoft »

Have you hit your rebalancing bands yet? Don't have rebalancing bands? Then get some.

Folks doing the DCA thing, should use this dip to accelerate the DCA thing.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by The Wizard »

I just sold 1% of my portfolio a week ago to rebalance from 55% stocks back to 54% stocks, with my acceptable range being between 45% and 55% stocks.
So, no, we'd need a 20% downturn (WAG) to get me to buy into stocks again. I don't see that happening in 2014, but I've been wrong before...
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by tigermilk »

Wake me when it has dipped. A blip is not a dip.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by am »

Noise, fluctuation, insignificant. Market does this and worse all the time. Buying/selling should be dictated by your asset allocation not market noise,
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by nedsaid »

Boy, that is hard to say. The P/E on the S&P 500 ETF and the Vanguard Total Market EFT shows at 16. If I am not mistaken, those P/E's are based on forward projected earnings. If you look backwards, the P/E's are probably more like 18 or 19. So I won't say these are screaming buy prices. The normal range historically is between 10 and 20. I think P/E's got down to 8 in 1973-74 and in the low 30's in early 2000.

Now that the 10 year Treasury is back to about 2.75%, that makes stocks a bit more attractive.

But a screaming buy, no. Just stick to your plan.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by whaleknives »

livesoft wrote:. . . Folks doing the DCA thing, should use this dip to accelerate the DCA thing.
Sorry, I'm still rebalancing into bonds. :)
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Trailbreaker1 »

It's not a big dip so far. Personally I don't increase my set monthly contributions until the S&P dips below 10%. The. More it decreases, the more I increase my monthly contributions.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by papito23 »

Here's your obligatory "What dip?" screenshot... (S&P500)
Image

Of course, the only data that could prove this as a true buying point lie in the future... so I can't help you there.

Wake me up after another 5-10%.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by livesoft »

Of course all the folks who are saying "What dip?" are the same ones who said, "If you got the money, just lump sum it into the market now and don't wait for a dip that might not come."

So YoungBoglehead, where is this "extra" that you write about coming from? You should have no "extra" because you already added any "extra" into the market as soon as you had it earlier. If you were holding back, you were already "market timing." If you invest now, you will beat the performance for 2014 of anything that has lost money so far in 2014.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by steve roy »

I'm not changing anything until I have big chunks of money to contribute to retirement accounts. Right now I'm at 70% bonds, 30% stocks (tilt to small cap and value) and plan to stay that way.

BUT, I fantasize that if stocks were to take a sustained dive, so that P/E ratios were in single digits, I would shift the AA to 60/40 or even 50/50, the 70/30 AA be damned.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Professor Emeritus »

YoungBoglehead wrote:I actually almost didn't make this thread because I'm pretty sure I know the answer

Buying in a dip is trying to time the market. So I'm sure the answer is no.


However I'm just wondering, does anybody here see a dip like me and think it's a good time to add extra into the market?
Anyone who uses the term "dip" with reference to the future and does not have a guaranteed crystal ball is making a big mistake

Stand up , turn around and look backwards in time (are you looking?)
What you see is a "decline" all kinds of charlatans will tell you that they have eyes in the back of their heads and can see the future
These crooks use terms like "dip" to fleece you.

now turn back around and repeat the wisdom of Oogway "yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That is why it is called the "present." "
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by TheTimeLord »

VTI down 3.15% is close. If I see a down 4% I will probably put some in then if it was to drop to down 8% even more. But you should still always be mindful of your AA and risk or it a good way to get your ______ handed to you. ITOT is down a similar amount.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by TheTimeLord »

livesoft wrote:Of course all the folks who are saying "What dip?" are the same ones who said, "If you got the money, just lump sum it into the market now and don't wait for a dip that might not come."
I was pondering this seeming contradiction myself.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by White Coat Investor »

What dip?
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by market timer »

Wake me when the VIX hits 30.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by letsgobobby »

3%, folks. Three percent for goodness sake!
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by taegirain3 »

I confess that I did see this past week's events as a good buying opportunity. I dragged up some cash I'd been saving for a new phone and some gadgets, used it to buy shares of the VG Total Stock Market Index fund instead...
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by JoMoney »

Yes, This "dip" is clearly the " Uluru Omen " it signaled to me this was a buying point. I got paid on Friday and as the Omen and my investment plan predicted, I bought into the market. If only I had seen this sign so clearly 2 paychecks ago.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by YDNAL »

YoungBoglehead wrote:... I'm just wondering, does anybody here see a dip like me and think it's a good time to add extra into the market?
When the S&P 500 was above the 1493.37 line and descended towards 778.45 line, which "dip" in each descend was best, and how would we know that in advance?

ps. simply hit the *max* tab.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by selftalk »

I personally believe that a bear market is not here now. The VTSMX is oversold at this time and yes it`s a good buying opportunity NOW. You have to be quick because a rally up will change that dramatically. If you are considering buying something other than VTSMX it may be a different story. Each asset class fluctuates differently and gets overbought and oversold at different times. Just be sure you really want what you are buying now for the long term.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Geist »

JoMoney wrote:Yes, This "dip" is clearly the " Uluru Omen " it signaled to me this was a buying point. I got paid on Friday and as the Omen and my investment plan predicted, I bought into the market. If only I had seen this sign so clearly 2 paychecks ago.
:mrgreen: Love it ^^^
Wait for it, the spirits are whispering to me ..... they are saying ...... "buy.... buy twice a month for the next 35 years.... you'll do great..." :twisted:

Have the markets declined from their record-highs? Yes, obviously. Is it a buying opportunity? Certainly. Would I be buying in 3 days completely regardless of what the day's market close happens to be? Absolutely. If a 1-week decline of 2.6% is enough to radically alter your investing strategy, I can't imagine that you really have much of a long-term strategy at all.......
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by nisiprius »

JoMoney, beautiful. Is that Ayers Rock? [Added: :oops: Of course it is. Uluru is to Ayers Rock as Denali is to Mount McKinley, shoulda known that.]

YoungBoglehead, one of the things everyone has to come to grips with is that market graphs are a fractal landscape. It is really hard to accept this, your mind keeps wanting to force it into a somewhat smooth pattern. Inside the big downs are smaller ups, inside those ups are smaller downs, inside those downs are smaller ups, etc. The patterns you are sure you see after the fact are not predictable while they are going on.

So, the market is about to open in a few hours. It is perfectly possible that yesterday was an overreaction, a short-term buying opportunity, that it will pop right back up or much of the way back up today, and that yesterday was a splendid opportunity to stock up for life on stocks at 2% off. It is also perfectly possible that this is the start of a 20% correction, or another crash like 2008-2009. After 1929, there was a spectacular run-up in 1936 that just barely achieved recovery; then there was a second crash in 1937, the stock market lost half its value, it was the fourth worst crash in U.S. history... and many people do not realize it happened and even find it hard to believe it happened. (Watch out for claims about the "average length of a bear market" or "typical bear market," because 1929-1945 is usually counted as two separate 7-year bear markets--but when they occur one after the other with only 3 months in between, for most purposes that's a 14-year bear market). (I am NOT NOT NOT predicting a second crash in 2014).

Calling something a "dip" sort of tricks us into making a number of predictions about the future. Predictions are difficult enough, but it is quite dangerous to be making unconscious predictions and not know we are making them. Notice the similarity in the two big dips shown here. But "buying on the dip" in 2008, red arrow, if it meant a major commitment of big money--selling a bunch of bonds to buy "stocks on sale," let us say--would have been very disappointing. Similarly, interrupting a program of regular stock purchase in 2011 (green arrow) in the belief that you were cleverly avoiding trouble would also have been a mistake. Both of the dips looked the same at the time, the difference can only be seen in retrospect.

Image

There is nothing about something being a dip that automatically makes it a buying point.

Of all the much-disputed things about the efficient market hypothesis in its various forms, the one that seems most likely to be true is that you cannot beat the market by exploiting price information alone. Maybe you can't beat it any other way either, but for sure not by price information alone.

Now I can't say I understand livesoft's theories about Really Bad Day. I would never do it myself, but I don't see any great harm in buying a little extra on a Really Bad Day if you in fact have extra cash that was going to be spent impulsively--should I buy a new camera or, no, hey, let's buy an ETF.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by manwithnoname »

YoungBoglehead wrote:I actually almost didn't make this thread because I'm pretty sure I know the answer

Buying in a dip is trying to time the market. So I'm sure the answer is no.


However I'm just wondering, does anybody here see a dip like me and think it's a good time to add extra into the market?
Only a 5% decline so far. why not wait until markets are down 10%.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by livesoft »

manwithnoname wrote:Only a 5% decline so far. why not wait until markets are down 10%.
LOL! Start a thread about that and see the responses for that. Here's an example thread from 5 weeks ago: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=128842

@JoMoney, great omen and graphic! Uluru presents an infinite number of possible charts depending on the viewpoint of the camera, so can predict anything!
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by nyjetfan »

If I have money to put into the markets today, I see the "dip" as a buying opportunity. If I had money to put in last week, I saw the "run up" as a buying opportunity.

Two key items for me:
1 - Make sure you keep your AA within your IPS tolerance (ie stocks are x% +/- y%)
2 - When you have money to invest periodically (in my case payday = money into market day), put it in according to AA.

No need to complicate it more than that.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by ThatGuy »

This market is still uncomfortably high for my taste. I'd be less apprehensive if we did have a dip. But a one-day sell off of 2% does not count.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by TheTimeLord »

Interesting thread. Lots of people dissing the dip with what looks to be timing logic. If you invest in equities because you believe they have an eternal bias up down slightly over 3% would seem meaningful. It is like a year of returns from bonds.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by TheTimeLord »

manwithnoname wrote:
YoungBoglehead wrote:I actually almost didn't make this thread because I'm pretty sure I know the answer

Buying in a dip is trying to time the market. So I'm sure the answer is no.


However I'm just wondering, does anybody here see a dip like me and think it's a good time to add extra into the market?
Only a 5% decline so far. why not wait until markets are down 10%.
Because you wouldn't have seen a buying opportunity in what about 28 months.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by G-Money »

Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

I don't think most Bogleheads saw this "market dip" at all.
Don't assume I know what I'm talking about.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Sconie »

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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by longview »

Bought. (fell roughly inline with my DCA).

Here's hoping it keeps going down for the next month, for my next and final DCA. Then it can start going up again. :beer
(To color my comments: my situation is ER trying to make a large portfolio that is 99% taxable last 45 years)
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by HomerJ »

StarbuxInvestor wrote:
livesoft wrote:Of course all the folks who are saying "What dip?" are the same ones who said, "If you got the money, just lump sum it into the market now and don't wait for a dip that might not come."
I was pondering this seeming contradiction myself.
How is this a contradiction? The dip might not have come. The lump sum advice is still correct.

Don't confuse outcome with strategy... It's still good advice to say "Don't bet the Big Six in craps" even if a 6 comes up.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by feh »

If I had some dry powder, I'd probably be buying. But I don't.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by garlandwhizzer »

Market timing is difficult. The market has dropped perhaps 4% now, not much in a historical sense and I don't think that many believe this is the time to reallocate to stocks. The likelihood of benefiting from market timing--buying low for the long term holder--is in direct proportion to the severity of swings in investor sentiment. Whenever investor sentiment measurements show investor pessimism approaching or exceeding all time lows, like they did in 2008-9, that has historically been a great time to go against the crowd. Before that point results are mixed. When investor sentiment is in more middling ranges as it is now (actually investor sentiment was net positive when last measured), your results with market timing are more like flipping a coin. In my opinion we have a very long way to go before this market drop becomes a legitimate buying opportunity. Most market mavens expect this downturn will not exceed 10% or so and they may move money into equities when and if the drop reaches high single digits or the low double digits. Will this be a solid strategy? Flip a coin for the answer.

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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by YDNAL »

garlandwhizzer » Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:43 pm wrote:Market timing is difficult.
Agree with you, guessing the future is what it is.
garlandwhizzer wrote:...Most market mavens expect this downturn will not exceed 10% or so and they may move money into equities when and if the drop reaches high single digits or the low double digits. Will this be a solid strategy? Flip a coin for the answer.

Garland Whizzer
A 10% drop in Equities, on a 50/50 allocation, has barely reached a 5% rebalancing band. The more Equities in the AA, the larger drop necessary to shift the AA outside the band.

"Low double digits" - as in 12%, 13%, for instance - and a person's 50/50 allocation would have certainly shifted outside the 5% band.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by letsgobobby »

I'm forty. I hope we have twenty more years of dips, if that is what this called.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Hub »

I bought some on Friday with some 2013 roth money that was still in cash. Am under no delusions that it matters a bit, but I was just happy to see it come down for a few days. I still have a rather annoying amount of cash that I want invested but the constant run up has left me sitting on my hands on some things. Not good I know, but I've invested multiples of this amount in the meantime via automatic payroll deductions.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by abuss368 »

That is market timing and it has been proven not to work.

I invest routinely regardless of market conditions and then stay the course.

Good luck with your strategy.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by goblue100 »

YoungBoglehead wrote: However I'm just wondering, does anybody here see a dip like me and think it's a good time to add extra into the market?
This reminds me of the joke of the young bull and the old bull on top of the hill looking at the cows in the valley.

Patience, YoungBoglehead, wait for a real correction before getting too excited.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by zeep »

Yes. [But only because every day is a buying opp if you are regularly saving and investing] 8-)
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Jeff7 »

G-Money wrote:Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

I don't think most Bogleheads saw this "market dip" at all.
A vote for this.

The money I want to invest is invested, or is scheduled to be invested as it becomes available. That, and a yearly evaluation for rebalancing, are the extent of my involvement in it.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by pteam »

Emerging markets are looking cheap
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by cflannagan »

Today is just a blip in the grand scheme of things for me. Even if it was an up day.

I practice that mentality when adding money into my asset allocation. Which days it happens will not matter to me.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by Dadarkar »

As livesoft pointed out it makes sense to buy more if you have already started Dollar Cost Averaging. Morel like Value Cost Averaging.
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Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Post by selftalk »

I just rebalanced and bought VWO for the long term. I don`t know if this helps you or not but at least you now have a myriad of intelligent opinions.
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