What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013)

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

10-year annualized returns

Poll ended at Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:54 am

Negative
2
3%
0%-3%
2
3%
3%-6%
8
13%
6%-9%
31
50%
9%-12%
14
23%
12%-15%
2
3%
15%-18%
2
3%
19%-22%
0
No votes
23%+
1
2%
 
Total votes: 62

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packer16
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What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013)

Post by packer16 »

I saw 1-yr poll and thought 10 years is more applicable and within this period of time we should begin to see if asset allocation and stock selection is meeting expectations:

10-yr Benchmarks

100% US Stock 7.3% (Vanguard 500)
100% US Bonds 4.4% (Vanguard Total Bond Index)
100% Intl Stock 6.8% (Schwab Int'l Index)

Packer
Last edited by packer16 on Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 10-year returns (to Dec 31, 2013)

Post by jebmke »

I have no idea.
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Re: 10-year returns (to Dec 31, 2013)

Post by TheTimeLord »

Can't imagine.
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am
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by am »

Can we petition Vanguard to add 10 year and since portfolio inception return data? I have asked in an email and they did not respond.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Longtimelurker »

This would involve keeping meticulous records to do an accurate IRR calculation, including all rebalances. I haven't the faintest clue.. All I know is that I am much more wealthy in real terms today then 10 years ago, and well on track for the goals I outlined in my IPS.
Stay the course. If you can't resist greed, and fear is proven to be 2x as strong, you are doomed as an investor.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Robert T »

.
  • 8.7% = 10 yr annualized (nominal) return to Dec. 31 2013

    75% stock:25% bond
    Within stock: 50% US:50% non-US
    Long-term expected annualized return = 7.5% nominal [4.5% real]

    Had the same stock:bond mix, international allocation, and factor load targets over the last 10 years.
.
Last edited by Robert T on Sat Jan 11, 2014 9:32 am, edited 3 times in total.
dailybagel
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by dailybagel »

Longtimelurker wrote:This would involve keeping meticulous records to do an accurate IRR calculation, including all rebalances. I haven't the faintest clue.. All I know is that I am much more wealthy in real terms today then 10 years ago, and well on track for the goals I outlined in my IPS.
Vanguard seems to do this for periods of 1, 3, and 5 years. I agree that 10 years would be great to see as well.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Longtimelurker »

dailybagel wrote:
Longtimelurker wrote:This would involve keeping meticulous records to do an accurate IRR calculation, including all rebalances. I haven't the faintest clue.. All I know is that I am much more wealthy in real terms today then 10 years ago, and well on track for the goals I outlined in my IPS.
Vanguard seems to do this for periods of 1, 3, and 5 years. I agree that 10 years would be great to see as well.
I have accounts at:

- Fidelity
- Schwab
- TD Ameritrade
- Capital One
- Treasury Direct

I don't have a prayer of finding this info.
Stay the course. If you can't resist greed, and fear is proven to be 2x as strong, you are doomed as an investor.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Sheepdog »

10 years average return, 2004(age 71)-2013(age 80), 100 minus my age in stocks, was 6.17%. I used my Microsoft Money 2002 software to do the calculations for me. I keep a record of the annual returns, and then averaged these 10 years. I only had one negative year, -9.60% in 2008.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by mak »

10-year and 20-year are fascinating numbers to know, total annualized return including all assets combined, securities, rental RE, cash, etc. I have 19 years of records now, and my 'number' is only 3.11%. Sad result of bad investments/speculations, timing, etc. Checking around with a few others I'm finding most people have no clue, and do not really want to know, in the same way gamblers like to remember their big wins and forget their losses. A few people where I am close enough to have seen tax returns, I'm certain have negative TAR over decades. Ignoring inflation, that means if they simply put 100% of their savings into checking accounts, never earning a penny of interest over their lives, they would be ahead of where they are. It cost them money to be an investor, they paid for the fun of buying/selling/bragging at the water cooler. One guy I know has lost almost $1M over his life net, or paid $1M for his ups and downs. And he considers himself a skilled investor far more knowledgeable than most. Options, futures, day trading, huge wins and losses, but more losses than gains over time.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by terrabiped »

I often see annualized and average annual used somewhat interchangeably. I don't try to calculate my actual compounded annualized. My average annual is around 6 with a conservative AA.
“Average” Returns vs. “Annualized” Returns

The first problem is the use of “average annual returns,” which the financial industry often uses to make past returns look a little better than they actually were. This number is calculated by simply taking an average of annual returns over a given period. Let’s say you owned a single stock that was valued at $100 and the market increased by 100% in the first year and lost 50% in the next year. 100% minus 50% divided by 2 would give us a 25% annual average return and we would expect our value to be $125. But in reality, the $100 would have gone up to $200 ($100 plus 100% increase) and then dropped back down to $100 ($200 reduced by 50%), leaving us with exactly as much money as we started with for a 0% return.

The more volatile the returns are, the more distorted the numbers will be so this is an extreme example but even a small difference in returns can have a huge impact. For example, according to this web site, the average annual return of the S&P 500 (including dividends) was about 9.6% from 1992-2011. However, the compounded annualized return (what you actually earned once volatility was factored in) was about 7.8%. That might not seem like a big difference but $10k a year over 20 years at a 9.6% return is about $600k. At a 7.8% return, it’s a little over $480k. That’s almost a $120k difference. Over a longer time period, the gap would only continue to grow.
Source.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by IlliniDave »

Mine are, crudely estimated, in the 0-3 annualized range, but that includes a divorce as an investment loss. A rough estimate with that event subtracted would be 7% annualized. I don't have precise data going back that far summarized. Before I was a boglehead I was very much a fire and forget investor. It might be interesting to to go back and look through the stack of unread 401k statements and figure it out, but too much work for this morning.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by midareff »

packer16 wrote:I saw 1-yr poll and thought 10 years is more applicable and within this period of time we should begin to see if asset allocation and stock selection is meeting expectations:

10-yr Benchmarks

100% US Stock 7.3% (Vanguard 500)
100% US Bonds 4.4% (Vanguard Total Bond Index)
100% Intl Stock 6.8% (Schwab Int'l Index)

Packer
On a 2% CPI that in a 50/50 mix of equities to bonds and with Domestic/Int 50/50 gives a 3.725 real for 10 years. I'd settle for that for the next ten right now.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Carl53 »

I don't keep all of my transactions for everything in one spreadsheet. Actually keep little track of taxable money. I look at VG TIRA, VG Roths, 401ks, CDs, Ibonds and misc and see individual components ranging from 2.8% to nearly 7%. I voted 3-6%.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by BigFoot48 »

6.6% using Excel and the XIRR function. Of course only having one IRA to track with limited withdrawals makes the process of tracking in Excel, done monthly, very easy.
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midareff
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by midareff »

With deferred compensation investments varying year to year, as well as DROP accrual accounts and varying annual amounts added to taxable investments year to year, and Roth, I am unable to provide a coherent answer of actual market return for that period. I do know I had 306% of my invested amount January 1, 2004, on December 31, 2013.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by stlutz »

Approx. 7.75%.

I too am surprised by how many people say they don't keep track. Once per quarter I note down my account value and how much it has changed exclusive of additions/subtractions and keep a running tally in a spreadsheet. This method has slight inaccuracies since I'm not measuring as of each date I make an addition or subtraction, but it's close enough. I like looking at it because of the reminder of how much better I've done post-Boglehead approach (which started for me in '99) vs. the days when I picked my own stocks (and pretty much missed out on the 90s bull market).
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by TheTimeLord »

stlutz wrote:Approx. 7.75%.

I too am surprised by how many people say they don't keep track. Once per quarter I note down my account value and how much it has changed exclusive of additions/subtractions and keep a running tally in a spreadsheet. This method has slight inaccuracies since I'm not measuring as of each date I make an addition or subtraction, but it's close enough. I like looking at it because of the reminder of how much better I've done post-Boglehead approach (which started for me in '99) vs. the days when I picked my own stocks (and pretty much missed out on the 90s bull market).
I would be shocked if anyone making any meaningful size contributions multiple times a year would accurately caculate their ROR. It is like that ladies investment club in the 90's who was touted for beating the S&P for years only to discovered they had been including deposits when calculating their returns. Add to that the fact many people may only be interested in the fact their investments generated either enough returns or income to maintain their lifestyle in a given year and long term rate of return loses much of it's importance to an individual.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by mak »

Around 1995 I realized something was grossly wrong and started keeping track. I only do it annually, and admittedly adding or spending money and multiple accounts makes the calculation more difficult or less accurate but luckily I don't do much and those flows are negligible anyway vs the total. I was shocked to find how low my long term returns were, and how volatile. Others where I brought up the subject have no interest, they do not want to know. They will say I made 40% in xxxx year, and that is the number they remember and spout for decades. A major indicator should be that in taxable accounts, they deduct $3000 per year, and have carry forward losses which over time grow larger and larger. So large that near the end of their investing lives based on portfolio size and size of that loss, there is little chance they could ever generate enough taxable gains to offset the losses. "Tax harvesting" is meaningless. Why grow a loss on paper when you have little hope of any meaningful gains? I've asked a couple of bulletin board professionals (seeking alpha) and they refuse to divulge. Either they don't know themselves or the number would be embarrassing. They sure do like talking about individual trades though.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by BL »

dailybagel wrote:
Longtimelurker wrote:This would involve keeping meticulous records to do an accurate IRR calculation, including all rebalances. I haven't the faintest clue.. All I know is that I am much more wealthy in real terms today then 10 years ago, and well on track for the goals I outlined in my IPS.
Vanguard seems to do this for periods of 1, 3, and 5 years. I agree that 10 years would be great to see as well.
I clicked on the fund name on my balance and holdings page and got this:
Fund average annual returns (fee-adjusted)
VTSAX Benchmark
YTD 33.52% 33.51%
1 year 33.52% 33.51%
3 year 16.25% 16.26%
5 year 18.86% 18.87%
10 year 8.11% 8.11%
Since inception 11/13/2000 5.29% 5.30%
As of 12/31/2013 Price and performance details
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Garco »

7.5%: But a caution. I can only approximate b/c this "return" also includes my annual contributions from salary of about 1-1.5% to the prior year's accumulation. So 7.5% is more an estimate of the 10-year compound rate of growth than it is of TR. The TR is more like 6.0 to 6.5%. They both fall in the same overly broad category in the poll. (There's a huge difference between 6% and 9% annualized return over 10 years, but you have both in the same category.)
Last edited by Garco on Sat Jan 11, 2014 11:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Doc »

Longtimelurker wrote:This would involve keeping meticulous records to do an accurate IRR calculation, including all rebalances. I haven't the faintest clue.. All I know is that I am much more wealthy in real terms today then 10 years ago, and well on track for the goals I outlined in my IPS.
Use Quicken or some other kind of good financial software that will enable downloads from your financial institutions. It will cost you about $20 a year and save you hundreds of hours of time as well as give you much better information. Besides you can answer these "wonderful" poll in polls just a few minutes. :wink:
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by TheTimeLord »

mak wrote:Around 1995 I realized something was grossly wrong and started keeping track. I only do it annually, and admittedly adding or spending money and multiple accounts makes the calculation more difficult or less accurate but luckily I don't do much and those flows are negligible anyway vs the total. I was shocked to find how low my long term returns were, and how volatile. Others where I brought up the subject have no interest, they do not want to know. They will say I made 40% in xxxx year, and that is the number they remember and spout for decades. A major indicator should be that in taxable accounts, they deduct $3000 per year, and have carry forward losses which over time grow larger and larger. So large that near the end of their investing lives based on portfolio size and size of that loss, there is little chance they could ever generate enough taxable gains to offset the losses. "Tax harvesting" is meaningless. Why grow a loss on paper when you have little hope of any meaningful gains? I've asked a couple of bulletin board professionals (seeking alpha) and they refuse to divulge. Either they don't know themselves or the number would be embarrassing. They sure do like talking about individual trades though.
Now what I can tell you is monthly since 2010 the balances of all my investment accounts and the percentage change from year to year but that would include contributions. I also look at annual returns to see where I was relative to the benchmarks for a given year. But haven't seen the need to carry that beyond the annual basis. Maybe I should, but being primarily in index funds I feel almost by definition I have decided to accept whatever the index returns.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by tibbitts »

Absolutely no idea, but definitely not enough.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Bmac »

am wrote:Can we petition Vanguard to add 10 year and since portfolio inception return data? I have asked in an email and they did not respond.

+1 Since they already do 1,3 and 5 year results, why can they not also do 10 yrs and since inception? They have the information for individual funds.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by mak »

Vanguard doing it all only works if you have all your investment assets at Vanguard. But I presume a typical person has multiple accounts, 401k/403b/457 type stuff at work, business investments, rental real estate, life insurance, annuities, etc. Each year for the past 19, when I close the books for the year ended, it takes me most of a whole day to close out all the spreadsheets and open new ones for the coming year, and mark real estate to market, to come up with "the number". It is not perfect, but the only way I've figured out that works for me and comes up with something I can live with.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by galeno »

10 yr CAGR = 8.7%. GSD = 15.4%.
KISS & STC.
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packer16
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by packer16 »

When Vanguard calculates the investor rate of return does anyone know how they do it? Do they account for investments and withdraws?
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by btenny »

Does anyone use Money or Quicken to keep track of multiple accounts from multiple companies? Do you download results monthly or regularly? I use Excel and have several accounts plus we also have several checking accounts so the overall thing is pretty messy. So I do it manually. Does anyone actually use Quicken to do something this complex?
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by TheTimeLord »

packer16 wrote:When Vanguard calculates the investor rate of return does anyone know how they do it? Do they account for investments and withdraws?
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/conten ... ontent.jsp
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by crowd79 »

Not even sure since I am young and basically in the "contribution" phase of my retirement goals. My large contributions each year make a bigger difference right now than the % return I get. Hopefully when I reach $100k then the magic of compounding will start to work for me...
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by cfs »

Leaders, good morning/afternoon/evening

Thanks for asking, and keep those good questions coming.

Unable to provide the information requested on the "historical returns" for the past ten years. I know the "growth" of our boring SWAN from year to year based on the balance at the market close on the last trading day of the year. The "growth" of the boring SWAN includes all the additions during the year via our work retirement plans, our Vanguard IRAs, and our Vanguard taxable account. Praise the Lord, I am very pleased with the overall "growth" of our boring SWAN since inception, including the past 1/3/5/10/15/20 years (with only one "negative growth" year in 2008).

Thanks for reading.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by wheld280 »

According to Morningstar Portfolio Manager my returns are as follows:

10 yr 7.48%
5 yr 13,99%
3 yr 11.69%

Please note that returns are 10 years to 1/10/2014 so they might be insignificantly different when using returns to 12/31/2013
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by MichaelM24 »

7%

25% S&P 500 (+7.34%)
25% Russell 2000 (+9.05%)
25% MSCEI ACWI ex US (+7.16%)
25% AGGREG Bond Index (+4.33%)


I had a 10% floor for bonds and a 25% ceiling. I never sold stock to buy bonds.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Carl53 »

StarbuxInvestor wrote:
packer16 wrote:When Vanguard calculates the investor rate of return does anyone know how they do it? Do they account for investments and withdraws?
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/conten ... ontent.jsp
Vanguard has a habit of overlooking information or transactions when they compute the results. I only consider them as a rough order of magnitude of rate of return. Could they be accurate, of course, they have all of the information. When you have numerous transactions, transfer funds between accounts/funds or have funds that have no balance for a period of time or tell the online system that you want to delete a particular fund that you used to have and no longer want to see it displayed, these are all instances in which the personal rate of returns I've observed being messed up. When things went awry in the past, I've tried working with my rep as well as their IT group, but always to no avail despite their assurances that they would correct the calculation at least for me. So now I just view it as a piece of likely erroneous information, at best if I've had little activity, it may be correct for YTD.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by fishnskiguy »

Our portfolio has been 25/75 stock/bond since 2001. Entering the value of our portfolio from December 31, 2003 and December 31, 2013 into my trusty financial calculator gave me 4.3%. However, during that period, there were several withdrawals of 2-5% followed by an approximate replacement of those withdrawals over a few years from income from our jobs as part time ski instructors. Therefore, I'm going to guess our actual IRR was about 5-5.5%.

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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Kenkat »

Mine was 7.61% from 1/1/2004 to 12/31/2013 according to Quicken. That is from an 80/20 slice and dice style portfolio at the start to a 70/30 slice and dice style portfolio at the end.

Not bad for what has been called a lost decade.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Sheepdog »

btenny wrote:Does anyone use Money or Quicken to keep track of multiple accounts from multiple companies? Do you download results monthly or regularly? I use Excel and have several accounts plus we also have several checking accounts so the overall thing is pretty messy. So I do it manually. Does anyone actually use Quicken to do something this complex?
I mentioned earlier here that I still use Money 2002 and I used Money 98 before that to keep track of spending, investments, return, etc. That includes new investments, withdrawals, etc. I can download from Vanguard, and any other investment account (I have had multiple previously), credit card accounts, checking , and other financial entities. I can download daily or any other period which I may desire, but at the minimum monthly. I manually add my checking account transactions, though, so that I can apply accurately for what the money went for. I also do that for credit card transactions.. I can see what I spend and for what. I can see what my investments have done for any time period. I can give you my net worth including debts at any time. Based on past bills and spending, and with guesstimates for future spending, I have a cash flow forecast for any period up to a year. My time to keep it running accurately is no more than two hours a month.
Alas, that Money program doesn't exist any more.
The free Money Plus Sunset can be downloaded, but I do not know how efficient it is. Perhaps someone will answer about that and Quicken as well
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TheTimeLord
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by TheTimeLord »

kenschmidt wrote:Mine was 7.61% from 1/1/2004 to 12/31/2013 according to Quicken. That is from an 80/20 slice and dice style portfolio at the start to a 70/30 slice and dice style portfolio at the end.

Not bad for what has been called a lost decade.
Try the real lost decade 2000-2009 and let me know. Since March 2009 the S&P is up what about 175% in a little under 5 years.
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MichaelM24
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by MichaelM24 »

Try the real lost decade 2000-2009 and let me know.
+1

Things are where we expect them to be now, but if there's another huge drop...
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Doc »

btenny wrote:Does anyone use Money or Quicken to keep track of multiple accounts from multiple companies? Do you download results monthly or regularly? I use Excel and have several accounts plus we also have several checking accounts so the overall thing is pretty messy. So I do it manually. Does anyone actually use Quicken to do something this complex?
Yes I use Quicken. I download weekly with virtually no problems except for Vanguard transactions which require a little "finesse" because of the Mutual Side/Brokerage Side mess. I do it weekly mainly because of checking and credit card accounts which I like to keep up on more frequently than I would need for investments.

A table to calculate annualized routines is a standard chart. Changing the time frame takes seconds. If you want to break out asset classes it might take you a couple of minutes. Asset allocation on the level of Vanguard's is a standard screen.

Taking care of wash sales or bond accretion/amortization takes a little work but some of the well known brokers still aren't handling these things correctly or expeditiously.

I think there are other software publishers that could handle the job. I like Intuit because it works seamlessly with Turbo Tax. You have to upgrade Quicken every three years or the downloads stop working. Cost average about $60 once every three years. At this cost with all the bells and whistles available I think Excel is just not worth the effort.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by jimb_fromATL »

am wrote:Can we petition Vanguard to add 10 year and since portfolio inception return data? I have asked in an email and they did not respond.
??? For funds I occasionally check, their performance data shows 10 years and since inception. Edit: I see other folks have pointed it out.
FOR EXAMPLE

You can also get the same yearly performance data at Yahoo

Both sites also have yearly performance data going back several years. You can copy and paste it into a spreadsheet, and fairly easily create tables with a few repetitive calculations and the GEOMEAN or RATE functions in Excel or other spreadsheets to summarize longer periods of time. Yahoo also has daily historical data, which can be downloaded to spreadsheets in weekly or monthly increments.

Bear in mind that unless you invested a lump sum at exactly the beginning of those periods and didn't add any more since then, those numbers don't really tell you much about your own results anyway. It can vary a lot depending on exactly when you invested, and how much you invested, and at what intervals. And I don’t know anybody who invests a lump sum and nothing else and never touches it for 3, 5, 10 years or more.
StarbuxInvestor : wrote: I would be shocked if anyone making any meaningful size contributions multiple times a year would accurately calculate their ROR.


Yep. If you try to use the yearly summaries for accounts where you invest periodically, their numbers can be grossly different from what you actually have.

To illustrate the differences between the online data and real life that some folks have touched on, consider these:
  • If you use the published 10 year average of 7.29% to calculate the result for investing periodically, you may not come very close at all. For example at 7.29%, $100 per month for 120 months works out to $17,694.

    If you calculate it for $100 per month for 120 months using a table of their yearly averages divided by 12, your calculation would show $22,183.

    But to get the real rate and result for dollar-cost-averaging you'll have to build a table with the monthly gains and losses and multiply it out for each month.

    One way to get the actual closing numbers is to download the historical closing data from Yahoo to a spreadsheet and calculate it for yourself based on the gain or loss from month to month. Since it's never going to be exact, it's reasonable to use monthly closing for a typical 401(k) or other plan where you are paid monthly. A nice perk with Yahoo data is that their historical data tables include a column with closing numbers adusted for splits and dividends reinvested for you on most funds. (Not for raw indexes.)

    As a check, according to Yahoo monthly data, Vanguard's S&P index fund VFINX closed at 84.74 adjusted for dividends reinvested at the beginning of 01/2004 and at 170.36 in 12/2013. For 120 months that's an average APY of 7.23% compounded annually, or 7.% compounded monthly. That's close enough to the 7.29% annual APY or geometric mean shown in their performance data – if it is for a lump sum.

    Using the actual monthly data and calculating iteratively for $100 invested at the beginning of the month for 120 months, it would grow to $19,866. So the real average APY or CAGR was 9.33%.
So ... depending on how often you invest more money and exactly when you invest it… your results may vary a lot from the published yearly data. Somebody else mentioned a ballpark figure. I'm not sure the yearly summaries are even in the same ballpark for most folks.

jimb
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by packer16 »

Vanguard publishes personal rates of return which include inflows and out flows.

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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by White Coat Investor »

My first retirement contribution was March 2004. I'm at 9.42% per year. Yes, that's an XIRRed number, and I have a record of every single contribution amount and date. There are around 200 contributions/withdrawals.

I fully expect my long-term number to be lower than that, probably in the 8% range. I remember this number was dramatically lower in early 2009. Might have even been negative at one point.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by leonard »

Whatever the index returns less the ER's are.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by Kenkat »

StarbuxInvestor wrote:
kenschmidt wrote:Mine was 7.61% from 1/1/2004 to 12/31/2013 according to Quicken. That is from an 80/20 slice and dice style portfolio at the start to a 70/30 slice and dice style portfolio at the end.

Not bad for what has been called a lost decade.
Try the real lost decade 2000-2009 and let me know. Since March 2009 the S&P is up what about 175% in a little under 5 years.
1/1/2000 to 12/31/2009 was +6.45%. +29.3% in 2009 sure didn't hurt that number.

If we want to go ugly as possible, 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2008 was +4.31%.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by TheTimeLord »

kenschmidt wrote:
StarbuxInvestor wrote:
kenschmidt wrote:Mine was 7.61% from 1/1/2004 to 12/31/2013 according to Quicken. That is from an 80/20 slice and dice style portfolio at the start to a 70/30 slice and dice style portfolio at the end.

Not bad for what has been called a lost decade.
Try the real lost decade 2000-2009 and let me know. Since March 2009 the S&P is up what about 175% in a little under 5 years.
1/1/2000 to 12/31/2009 was +6.45%. +29.3% in 2009 sure didn't hurt that number.

If we want to go ugly as possible, 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2008 was +4.31%.
I believe as long as people had sifficient bonds 2000-2009 shouldn't have been that horrible. Market (S&P 500) low was like March 9, 2009.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by jeffyscott »

stlutz wrote:Approx. 7.75%.

I too am surprised by how many people say they don't keep track. Once per quarter I note down my account value and how much it has changed exclusive of additions/subtractions and keep a running tally in a spreadsheet. This method has slight inaccuracies since I'm not measuring as of each date I make an addition or subtraction, but it's close enough.
Exactly what I do, using Rick Ferri's calculation formula for each quarter, which assumes all contribution made at mid point of the quarter. I now have 16 years of records. This calculates time weighted returns. I also calculate IRR.

I am about the same 7.96% time weighted, a bit lower IRR. My 16 year+ records show about the same as the past 10, with IRR of 7.51%. Both return figures are fairly close to Wellington, this has been pretty consistently the case for me every time I have looked at long term returns.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by jeffyscott »

kenschmidt wrote:
StarbuxInvestor wrote:
kenschmidt wrote:Mine was 7.61% from 1/1/2004 to 12/31/2013 according to Quicken. That is from an 80/20 slice and dice style portfolio at the start to a 70/30 slice and dice style portfolio at the end.

Not bad for what has been called a lost decade.
Try the real lost decade 2000-2009 and let me know. Since March 2009 the S&P is up what about 175% in a little under 5 years.
1/1/2000 to 12/31/2009 was +6.45%. +29.3% in 2009 sure didn't hurt that number.

If we want to go ugly as possible, 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2008 was +4.31%.
Coincidentally, I just checked and have exactly the same for my worst 10 years based on quarterly records...4.31% for the 10 year period ending March 31, 2009. Inflation was about 2.6% per year for that period, so real return about 1.7%.
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Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

Post by packer16 »

StarbuxInvestor wrote:
kenschmidt wrote:
StarbuxInvestor wrote:
kenschmidt wrote:Mine was 7.61% from 1/1/2004 to 12/31/2013 according to Quicken. That is from an 80/20 slice and dice style portfolio at the start to a 70/30 slice and dice style portfolio at the end.

Not bad for what has been called a lost decade.
Try the real lost decade 2000-2009 and let me know. Since March 2009 the S&P is up what about 175% in a little under 5 years.
1/1/2000 to 12/31/2009 was +6.45%. +29.3% in 2009 sure didn't hurt that number.

If we want to go ugly as possible, 1/1/1999 to 12/31/2008 was +4.31%.
I believe as long as people had sifficient bonds 2000-2009 shouldn't have been that horrible. Market (S&P 500) low was like March 9, 2009.
It also was not bad if you had small value oriented stock. My returns from 2000 to 2009 were 16.1% per year annualized over the period with no bonds.

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