TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2013

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Dr_McGarvey
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TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2013

Post by Dr_McGarvey »

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at:

[OT link removed by admin LadyGeek]

(I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.)

My rough impressions of the several intervals and results here go something like the following:

(1) With the exception of the F-Fund (-0.56%), every other TSP Fund enjoyed one-month gains from November – December 2013 (best gain: S-Fund, 2.94%).

(2) For equities (C-, S- and I-Funds) it was a great month, and matched their superb returns for the quarter, 6-, 9-, and 12-month intervals. Again, the S-Fund led all of the single-category funds.
(3) On the bond side, we continue to putter along weakly in the G-Fund with a less-than-scintillating one-year return of 1.89% yearly improvement. On a sour note, recent widespread declines in bond markets have produced losses for the F-Fund for most intervals.

(4) The L-Funds continue to display some "relative worth" -- especially the longer-term L 2050 Fund which led all funds with its 40.63% one-year improvement, likely thanks to the relative weight of equities here.

(5) Given the strong performance of the equity funds over this period, it is not surprising to see that a theoretical equal mixture of equity funds (33% each) leads all comers historically since the 2003 inception of the funds. This combination is followed by a theoretical equal mixture (20% each) of all the single-category funds. Emphases upon, or selection of one or another single-category funds by itself (say, the I-Fund) do not seem to do that well over the long-run.

(6) I've developed a neat 5th-order regression model of the Net Asset Values of the G-Fund with an astounding R² of .9998. It definitely shows the asymptotic "creep" and pitiful returns associated with the fund. The chart I developed also shows how much better (though less stable) the F-Fund has been doing for quite a while now, despite the rather sharp drop in the last month.

(7) It should be noted here that some of the TSP Fund values differ from their benchmarks (especially over the one-month interval) due to dividend payouts. (The TSP Funds do not pay dividends.)

I'll probably keep posting these updates on a quarterly basis. Please feel free to forward this message to those you think might have an interest in this information.
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Info_Hound
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by Info_Hound »

It's a bit tough to find clear analysis of the TSP. Many thanks again for providing TSP clarity! :D
Cluemanti
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by Cluemanti »

Thanks for the rundown.
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TimeRunner
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by TimeRunner »

Another thanks from here. I had to use Safari on Mac - Chrome won't render the images clearly for some reason. It's clear that if you are in the F fund and your predictions are correct, it is a good time to be out of it. I only hold G,C,S,I and use G as my sole bond fund other than a little VCAIX in taxable.
One cannot enlighten the unconscious. | "All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine." -Jeff Spicoli
FinancialDave
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by FinancialDave »

Thanks for the info.

One suggestion - in the table of theoretical results you are using different starting dates for the target date funds vs the others. I assume this is because the target dates don't go back further. It would seem more useful to be able to compare the two results if you made the time periods the same.

Great job.

fd
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!
placeholder
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by placeholder »

TimeRunner wrote: It's clear that if you are in the F fund and your predictions are correct, it is a good time to be out of it.
What prediction?
tigermilk
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by tigermilk »

Your L2050 % change is off. $11.1441 to $14.0634 is a 26.2% gain, not that 40%+ you have. Looks like a cell gone haywire!
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TimeRunner
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by TimeRunner »

placeholder wrote:
TimeRunner wrote: It's clear that if you are in the F fund and your predictions are correct, it is a good time to be out of it.
What prediction?
Slide 9: TSP Fund Price History - F and G Regressions - 31 December 2013. 5th-degree regression curves fit to observed closing Net Asset Values (NAV's) of the TSP...out to past 2-June 2015. I'd call that a prediction, or at least a forecast. But I could be technically incorrect. :)
One cannot enlighten the unconscious. | "All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine." -Jeff Spicoli
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Dr_McGarvey
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Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

Post by Dr_McGarvey »

tigermilk wrote:Your L2050 % change is off. $11.1441 to $14.0634 is a 26.2% gain, not that 40%+ you have. Looks like a cell gone haywire!
Thanks for spotting my error, tigermilk -- I appreciate your scrutiny. I have amended both my formula and the incorrect value.
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