Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

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Howard Donnelly
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Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Howard Donnelly »

Here is a recent interview with Mr. Bogle:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000223296
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Howard:

Thank you for the link to Jack's interview. It pleases me to see him looking so well and continuing to give us sound investing advice.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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lazyday
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by lazyday »

Spot he says this is about 2/3 into the vid.

Context is in choosing a fund manager, not predicting market returns as I expected/misread from the thread subject line.

Believe that in the past, Bogle has said something about the market returning a surprisingly consistant 7% real return over a long time, and should expect same in future. But he may have changed his thinking on this; more recently I've seen him use Gordon Equation to guess future returns.
Rolyatroba
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Rolyatroba »

Does anyone find this comical? The way the questions were posed, it felt like Fox News interviewing someone in the Sierra Club about taking wolves off the federal list of endangered species.

Seriously, I'm curious why CNBC would have him on their network, when if everyone bought into what the man is saying, the network would be out of business.

I certainly appreciate the evangelism, and love seeing this sort of coverage on what we all know to be "the Truth", but I do get somewhat dumbfounded when seeing this sort of thing.

And sorry...don't mean to hijack the thread.
Call_Me_Op
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Call_Me_Op »

Rolyatroba wrote: Seriously, I'm curious why CNBC would have him on their network, when if everyone bought into what the man is saying, the network would be out of business.
Throw the other side an occasional bone to make us (CNBC) appear to be objective?
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Levett
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Levett »

"Seriously, I'm curious why CNBC would have him on their network."

Let me get this straight. Does this mean you only listen to folks who reinforce your beliefs (sometimes called "confirmation bias")?

Jack Bogle has appeared often on CNBC, along with many other folks with whom he doesn't agree (and they don't agree with him). He also appears on Fox (a network whose ideology hardly reflects JB's public positions).

In my universe, that's called healthy intellectual exchange.

And one other thing: ask Jack Bogle about his long-term acquaintance with the interviewer, Bill Griffeth. They go back a ways, and I dare say it appears they have been friends for quite a while.

Lev
IlliniDave
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by IlliniDave »

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Rolyatroba wrote: Seriously, I'm curious why CNBC would have him on their network, when if everyone bought into what the man is saying, the network would be out of business.
Throw the other side an occasional bone to make us (CNBC) appear to be objective?
I'm generally pretty skeptical when it comes to the cable news outlets I'm familiar with. First and foremost it's designed to be entertainment. That there happens to be "news" involved is incidental. Although the world of people that pay attention to investing is a small one, Bogle mans the vanguard (sorry, I couldn't resist :happy ) of an investing counterculture and tends to evoke reactions from people with his occasional bluntness. Investing philosophy aside, he's entertaining. And CNBC (just like Fox and CNN) needs conflict in order to survive. Without conflict there is no drama and news becomes dry and boring.
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bondsr4me
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by bondsr4me »

Jack B. is one person I would not want to debate the merits of indexing. He knows much, much more that I do and I have been investing (personally and professionally) for a long time.
That being said, I like Bill Griffith of CNBC. He and Sue Herrera are a good team. I don't watch/like FOX; dislike Ruppert's style and ethics.
I just canned his WSJ because I won't give financial support to anyone (knowingly) whose ethics are lacking.
I really prefer Bloomberg, but the news media seems to have gone away from "reporting" news; they sensationlize everything that happens.
I apologize if I hijacked the thread.
Don
trasmuss
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by trasmuss »

It appears to be human nature to try to "out think the index". It happens even with true Bogleheads.

Mr. Bogle has in the past talked about perhaps using Intermediate Term Bond Index instead of Total Bond to avoid mortgage backed securities. Recently he has talked about using corporate bond index funds because he felt Total Bond was too heavily weighted in government bonds. On the stock side he has talked about high dividend and dividend growth funds to replace some of Total Stock (and perhaps some of Total Bond). So even Mr. Bogle tinkers (call it what you want) to try to improve on total markets.

I personally have no problem with CNBC, Bloomberg, financial magazines, etc. I watch them or sometimes read them to gain out of them what I want. I dont' pay attention to the segments discussing Facebook, Apple, or whatever, but enjoy listening to segments discussing the bond market or equities in general. And yes, I enjoy reading Boglehead posts; even those (and there are many) that propose how to do better than Total Stock or Total Bond.

Gathering information from many sources is not a bad thing. As with anything else one just has to determine what is best for one's individual situation.
IlliniDave
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by IlliniDave »

trasmuss wrote: Mr. Bogle has in the past talked about perhaps using Intermediate Term Bond Index instead of Total Bond to avoid mortgage backed securities. Recently he has talked about using corporate bond index funds because he felt Total Bond was too heavily weighted in government bonds. On the stock side he has talked about high dividend and dividend growth funds to replace some of Total Stock (and perhaps some of Total Bond). So even Mr. Bogle tinkers (call it what you want) to try to improve on total markets.
I think part of the point Bogle makes regarding "Total Bond Indexes" is that they don't adequately index the total bond market, and under current conditions that occurs to the investor's detriment.

And at the end of the day, Bogle invests to make money, and is pretty clearly a "tactical asset allocator", as well as a member of the older/traditional school of (especially) retirees investing for income as opposed to the current popular preference of "total return" strategies. He is not the archetype for the middle-of-the-distribution boglehead. He's definitely his own man, which is part of what makes him great.
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Rolyatroba
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Rolyatroba »

Levett wrote:Let me get this straight. Does this mean you only listen to folks who reinforce your beliefs (sometimes called "confirmation bias")?
Can you take me through the progression of logic that brought you to ask this question?

I had a pretty simple question that others chimed in on, all without (seemingly) making an assumption that I am a wiseacre or simpleton.
Levett
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Levett »

Sure.

CNBC a) has a great deal of respect for JB's opinions but b) does not see those opinions as either c) the only useful opinions out there or d) a threat to its (CNBC's) existence or business plan.

You seemed to be puzzled by why CNBC would interview a potential antagonist or perhaps (my word choice) the "enemy."

CNBC is all about ratings (which are declining) and selling ads. Jack Bogle is good for both. It's a win/win for JB and CNBC.

Lev
Rolyatroba
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Rolyatroba »

Levett wrote:Sure.

CNBC a) has a great deal of respect for JB's opinions but b) does not see those opinions as either c) the only useful opinions out there or d) a threat to its (CNBC's) existence or business plan.

You seemed to be puzzled by why CNBC would interview a potential antagonist or perhaps (my word choice) the "enemy."

CNBC is all about ratings (which are declining) and selling ads. Jack Bogle is good for both. It's a win/win for JB and CNBC.
Well, that would have been a great answer to my initial question, but doesn't get us to the logic that you thought I might be someone that "only listen(s) to folks who reinforce your beliefs (sometimes called "confirmation bias")".

Appreciate the above, nevertheless.
mptness
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by mptness »

I'd expect that most of the financial TV shows would love to have him as a guest, and are lucky if he agrees to be interviewed. I'd be surprised if the hosts of these shows didn't have a great deal of respect for his opinion, after all, he earned it.

Of course that doesn't stop them from trying to get him to make predictions, which is what they do with all their guests!
Levett
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Levett »

My sense is JB enjoys being interviewed. It's a free platform for him to espouse his views.

As I said previously, it's a win/win for both parties.

Lev
Fallible
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by Fallible »

Levett wrote:My sense is JB enjoys being interviewed. It's a free platform for him to espouse his views.

As I said previously, it's a win/win for both parties.

Lev
You've posted the many good reasons Jack appears on CNBC and this last post nicely sums it up: a win/win.
Last edited by Fallible on Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Post by LadyGeek »

Please stay on-topic; which is Jack Bogle's interview - not who's doing the interview.
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