madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

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madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby madsinger » Tue Jul 02, 2013 1:08 pm

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 60/5/3/32 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.
Code: Select all
                                    CAGR     CAGR     CAGR     CAGR
                   June    YTD      since    since    since    since
                   2013    2013     2010     2008     2003     1999
Hot Hands        -0.37%   21.82%   15.09%    0.68%   11.93%   11.87%
Sheltered Sam    -1.90%    9.54%   11.30%    3.05%    9.85%    6.89%
VFINX            -1.35%   13.74%   13.20%    3.83%    7.96%    3.66%
                       
Newsletter G     -1.21%   14.60%   11.77%    3.72%    9.95%    8.85%
Newsletter G-IND -1.75%   12.40%   12.88%    3.61%    9.55%    5.47%
s&d              -1.96%    6.52%    9.69%    3.76%    9.43%    7.03%
3 fund           -2.05%    6.36%    8.81%    3.02%    8.50%    5.08%
LS G             -1.89%    7.08%    9.57%    2.24%    7.70%    4.35%

Code: Select all
Newsletter CG    -1.49%   12.70%   11.22%    4.04%    9.03%    7.17%
Wellington       -1.35%    8.71%   10.31%    5.45%    8.66%    7.02%
coffeehouse      -1.63%    5.71%    9.74%    5.30%    8.45%    6.87%
STAR             -2.15%    5.38%    8.95%    4.32%    7.84%    6.16%
LS MG            -1.78%    4.72%    8.48%    2.99%    7.06%    4.70%
                       
Wellesley        -1.60%    3.44%    9.66%    6.92%    7.19%    6.79%
Newsletter Inc   -1.65%    7.30%   10.05%    4.79%    7.01%    5.04%
LS CG            -1.74%    2.27%    6.90%    3.21%    6.05%    4.71%
                       
madsinger        -1.57%    7.96%    9.19%    3.81%       
Last edited by madsinger on Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby madsinger » Tue Jul 02, 2013 1:15 pm

Well..it had to happen. The first down month of the year for the portfolios. In spite of all of the chatter and the news (and...here?), the final returns for the month were not all that shocking. Portfolios down -1% to -2%. Not many places to hide this month. US stock funds were better than most, down just over -1%. Total Bond was off -1.7%, and internationals harder hit, with emerging markets the worst. Precious Metal fund was down over -13% for the month (!), and is now off almost -35% YTD.

All June panics aside, the first hall of the year was quite positive for the portfolios, ranging in the mostly 5% to 7% range. In this case, bonds are dragging down the portfolios, and the more bonds the portfolio holds, the worse it is.

I had considered adding a permanent portfolio to my display of portfolios, but now fear that adding it now will only bring derision. Still thinking it about it though.

Wishing you all well.
Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby beammeupscotty » Tue Jul 02, 2013 1:28 pm

What is the Hot Hands fund for 2013? I had calculated it to be U.S. Value (VUVLX), but that can't be the one in this list, since its YTD return is 16.69% as of 6/30.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby madsinger » Tue Jul 02, 2013 1:55 pm

beammeupscotty wrote:What is the Hot Hands fund for 2013? I had calculated it to be U.S. Value (VUVLX), but that can't be the one in this list, since its YTD return is 16.69% as of 6/30.


In 2012, the Vanguard US Value fund returned 19.12%. Vangaurd Capital Value fund returned 22.33%. When I looked at all of the returns, this was the "diversified stock fund" that had the best return for 2012. I can't "confirm" that this is THE hot hands fund, but it is the fund I'm using for this chart this year.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby investor » Tue Jul 02, 2013 2:08 pm

Thanks Brad.
Look through the Vanguard returns for June and find the fund with a YTD 21.8% gain.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby btenny » Tue Jul 02, 2013 2:53 pm

From the Vanguard site Wellesley (6.9% vs 7.19%) and Wellington (8.19% vs 8.66%) both show lower 10 year returns than your posting which I guess includes all of 2003 so your numbers are 10.5 or so years. Is this correct? Were the returns for early 2003 that dramatic to change the average that much?

Thanks in advance.
Bill
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby gkaplan » Tue Jul 02, 2013 3:32 pm

As of June 30, 2013, my year-to-date return is 3.28%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of returns are –5.21%, 10.09%, 9.09%, and 4.56%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of 15.95%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, and three-year rates of return are 16.50, 24.17, and 17.93, respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return -10.75%. My annualized quarterly and one-year rates of return are -29.27% and 1.66%, respectively.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

68.12%: Vanguard Roth IRA (My year-to-date return is 4.49%. My annualized
quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return follow: -8.14%, 14.48%, 12.69%, and 6.19, respectively.

31.88%: Thrift Savings Plan (My year-to-date return is 0.76%. My annualized
quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return follow: 1.53%, 1.44%, 1.92%, and 0.39%, respectively.

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

13.50%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
13.50%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
05.50%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
11.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
11.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of June 30, 2013, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

14.09%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
14.05%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.32%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
06.19%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
09.91%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
10.16%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
08.41%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
31.88%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

(Totals do not add to 100% because of rounding.)

Submitted for your approval.
Gordon
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby madsinger » Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:23 pm

btenny wrote:From the Vanguard site Wellesley (6.9% vs 7.19%) and Wellington (8.19% vs 8.66%) both show lower 10 year returns than your posting which I guess includes all of 2003 so your numbers are 10.5 or so years. Is this correct? Were the returns for early 2003 that dramatic to change the average that much?

Thanks in advance.
Bill


According to Morningstar, Wellesley returned 6.30% in the first six months of 2003, and Wellington returned 8.79%. These numbers do create the difference:

Wellesley: ((1.0 + 0.069)^(10) * (1+0.0630))^(1/10.5)-1 = 7.18% (roundoff error to 7.19%)
Wellington: ((1.0+0.0819)^(10) * (1+0.0879))^(1/10.5)-1 = 8.654% (or about 8.66%)

I do not have the monthly data going back 10 years for the Newsletter portfolios, nor have I spent the time to copy all of the monthly returns of the underlying funds making up the portfolios going back 10 years. This is why I report the numbers as 10 years, 6 months, 5 years, 6 months, etc.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby Mel Lindauer » Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:50 pm

madsinger wrote:Well..it had to happen. The first down month of the year for the portfolios. In spite of all of the chatter and the news (and...here?), the final returns for the month were not all that shocking. Portfolios down -1% to -2%. Not many places to hide this month. US stock funds were better than most, down just over -1%. Total Bond was off -1.7%, and internationals harder hit, with emerging markets the worst. Precious Metal fund was down over -13% for the month (!), and is now off almost -35% YTD.

All June panics aside, the first hall of the year was quite positive for the portfolios, ranging in the mostly 5% to 7% range. In this case, bonds are dragging down the portfolios, and the more bonds the portfolio holds, the worse it is.

I had considered adding a permanent portfolio to my display of portfolios, but now fear that adding it now will only bring derision. Still thinking it about it though.

Wishing you all well.
Brad.


Hi Brad:

While you're considering adding additional portfolios, would you also consider adding "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps"? I think the MC long-term performance might surprise lots of folks.

Thanks.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Postby schwarm » Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:31 am

Bottom line, US stocks have done very well the first half of the year, and not much else.

If you have a portfolio that is 30/30/20/20 US/Int/IT/TIPS, you probably saw less than 2% for the first half of '13.
Most of the portfolios above are lean on Int stock and TIPS.
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