Will 1,666 be the high?

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Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby ge1 » Fri May 17, 2013 3:47 pm

As 666 was the low back in March 2009, maybe 1,666 will be the high :wink: ?

Not having invested yet in the 90s, I have to admit this ongoing rally is getting a bit scary. And a bit painful as well, as I'm overweight emerging markets.

So good for you all who have small cap, REITS, high yield bonds and whatever else keeps going up day after day in your portfolio :moneybag
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby money » Fri May 17, 2013 4:06 pm

At least for today. :twisted:
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Mel Lindauer » Fri May 17, 2013 4:10 pm

ge1 wrote:As 666 was the low back in March 2009, maybe 1,666 will be the high :wink: ?

Not having invested yet in the 90s, I have to admit this ongoing rally is getting a bit scary. And a bit painful as well, as I'm overweight emerging markets.

So good for you all who have small cap, REITS, high yield bonds and whatever else keeps going up day after day in your portfolio :moneybag


Perhaps it's time for you (and others) to rebalance?
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Jfet » Fri May 17, 2013 4:22 pm

Stocks are cheap...Tesla is only trading for like 8000 times future earnings, Google price target has been raised to infinity + 2, gold going to $200 an ounce, oil everywhere, just stick a straw in the ground.

The most bullish indicator is I am seeing people talking again about going 120% or 150% equities on forums like MMM by taking out HELOC. That always ends well.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby nisiprius » Fri May 17, 2013 4:23 pm

If the Book of Revaluations is right, it might be the bestial get.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby ge1 » Fri May 17, 2013 4:33 pm

nisiprius wrote:If the Book of Revaluations is right, it might be the bestial get.


love it :D
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Clearly_Irrational » Fri May 17, 2013 5:25 pm

Point and Figure target is 1800 so today is likely not the high. PE10 is 24.37 which is high but not really bubble territory. We could always have a major correction but at the moment it's not seeming likely short to medium term. It's mostly up to the Fed right now, absent some sort of market shock (war with Iran, EU financial crises heats up, etc.) I don't see much chance of things falling apart yet. The economy is slowly healing from the last crash, the big thing to watch is whether the Fed manages to take their foot off the gas in a safe manner. My guess is that they're going to wait too long because they don't realize the structural rate of unemployment is higher than it used to be.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby MnD » Fri May 17, 2013 5:27 pm

That's it........
I'm moving everything into 50:50 Emerging Market Bond and Powerball tickets.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Jfet » Fri May 17, 2013 6:08 pm

MnD wrote:That's it........
I'm moving everything into 50:50 Emerging Market Bond and Powerball tickets.


That could turn out well if you can buy 175,000,000 discrete tickets and nobody else wins. You would get the 600m jackpot plus a bit more because you would hit quite a few 1 million dollar 5 number draws. Since your cost basis was 175 mil, you would only pay taxes on 225mil of the roughly 400mil lump sum option. I would guess your after tax profit to be $150mil or so.

Better sharpen a lot of pencils though. People behind you in line are going to be pissed at the wait.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby LadyGeek » Fri May 17, 2013 6:34 pm

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (general investing).
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby EternalOptimist » Fri May 17, 2013 6:41 pm

Looks like no
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Xanadu » Fri May 17, 2013 6:43 pm

MnD wrote:That's it........
I'm moving everything into 50:50 Emerging Market Bond and Powerball tickets.


Not diversified enough in my opinion. I'd do at least 1/3 bit coins as well :P
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Middle » Fri May 17, 2013 7:08 pm

I just asked my Magic 8-Ball which said "Forever? Not likely but a minor 3-5% correction could come around this summer".
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby enderland » Fri May 17, 2013 7:34 pm

Jfet wrote:
MnD wrote:That's it........
I'm moving everything into 50:50 Emerging Market Bond and Powerball tickets.


That could turn out well if you can buy 175,000,000 discrete tickets and nobody else wins. You would get the 600m jackpot plus a bit more because you would hit quite a few 1 million dollar 5 number draws. Since your cost basis was 175 mil, you would only pay taxes on 225mil of the roughly 400mil lump sum option. I would guess your after tax profit to be $150mil or so.

Better sharpen a lot of pencils though. People behind you in line are going to be pissed at the wait.


I think this would be outrageously funny to see some multi-billionaire do.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Paul78 » Fri May 17, 2013 7:46 pm

Jfet wrote:
MnD wrote:That's it........
I'm moving everything into 50:50 Emerging Market Bond and Powerball tickets.


That could turn out well if you can buy 175,000,000 discrete tickets and nobody else wins. You would get the 600m jackpot plus a bit more because you would hit quite a few 1 million dollar 5 number draws. Since your cost basis was 175 mil, you would only pay taxes on 225mil of the roughly 400mil lump sum option. I would guess your after tax profit to be $150mil or so.

Better sharpen a lot of pencils though. People behind you in line are going to be pissed at the wait.



tickets are $2 a piece so the cost would be 350mil.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby momar » Fri May 17, 2013 8:01 pm

enderland wrote:
Jfet wrote:
MnD wrote:That's it........
I'm moving everything into 50:50 Emerging Market Bond and Powerball tickets.


That could turn out well if you can buy 175,000,000 discrete tickets and nobody else wins. You would get the 600m jackpot plus a bit more because you would hit quite a few 1 million dollar 5 number draws. Since your cost basis was 175 mil, you would only pay taxes on 225mil of the roughly 400mil lump sum option. I would guess your after tax profit to be $150mil or so.

Better sharpen a lot of pencils though. People behind you in line are going to be pissed at the wait.


I think this would be outrageously funny to see some multi-billionaire do.

How about some MIT kids?

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/m ... -1.1128482
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby LadyGeek » Fri May 17, 2013 8:24 pm

Please stay on-topic-: Has the S&P 500 Price Return index peaked at 1,667.47 (as of 17-May-2013 )?

BTW, The S&P 500 Total Return is currently at 2,952.56.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby bottlecap » Fri May 17, 2013 9:17 pm

nisiprius wrote:If the Book of Revaluations is right, it might be the bestial get.


Nice.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby ieathoneybadgers » Fri May 17, 2013 9:47 pm

Remember this? viewtopic.php?f=10&t=107946

Of course the year is not over, but just fun going back and looking at what folks entered in.

I put in like 1680 and thought I was being super optimistic. Didn't think we'd even hit anywhere near that number during the year.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby jeffyscott » Sat May 18, 2013 8:27 am

ge1 wrote:Not having invested yet in the 90s, I have to admit this ongoing rally is getting a bit scary. And a bit painful as well, as I'm overweight emerging markets.


Well in the 90s, treasury bonds were an alternative that actually offered positive real returns, maybe 5-6% from 10 year nominal treasuries, 3-4% real from I-bonds and TIPS :shock: . Also like emerging now, things like small caps and value offered better valuations than the, large growth dominated, overall stock market.
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby YDNAL » Sat May 18, 2013 8:56 am

ge1 wrote:As 666 was the low back in March 2009, maybe 1,666 will be the high ?

Not having invested yet in the 90s, I have to admit this ongoing rally is getting a bit scary. And a bit painful as well, as I'm overweight emerging markets.

Since you posted the OP at 3:47PM yesterday, I don't think that you meant exactly 1666. As we all now know, it closed at 1667.47.

Now, have you studied PE 10 ?
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby money » Wed May 22, 2013 3:49 pm

ge1 may have called it... would today be considered a really bad day?
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby prudent » Wed May 22, 2013 3:52 pm

I do think today marks the start of some type of downturn. But I will still stick to the plan, as I know I can't market time.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Clearly_Irrational » Wed May 22, 2013 4:15 pm

prudent wrote:I do think today marks the start of some type of downturn. But I will still stick to the plan, as I know I can't market time.


I'd argue that it's a pullback amidst an up trend. Short term it's probably a buy point, today is probably not the optimum entry but here in the next few days. Look for a hammer or doji candle under the bollinger band midline for a good signal. The macd line should be under the signal line for it to be a good entry. Current patterns suggest the up move would end around 1800 so it would be a reasonably short trade. Of course if you're buying and holding all of that is irrelevant. (except perhaps in the case of adding new money)
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby zotty » Wed May 22, 2013 10:19 pm

The NY Fed put out a paper recently arguing that stocks are cheap by historical standards when considering earnings yield of stocks versus risk free assets.

http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfe ... dence.html

Historically, the US market corrects 10% every 18 months on average, and we have a bear market ( 20% or more) every 3-4 years.

Will 1666 be the new generational high? I'd say no. Corporate earnings are at all time high. Housing has picked up. Energy is booming, etc.

Stay the course
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Random Musings » Wed May 22, 2013 10:55 pm

zotty wrote:The NY Fed put out a paper recently arguing that stocks are cheap by historical standards when considering earnings yield of stocks versus risk free assets.

http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfe ... dence.html

Historically, the US market corrects 10% every 18 months on average, and we have a bear market ( 20% or more) every 3-4 years.

Will 1666 be the new generational high? I'd say no. Corporate earnings are at all time high. Housing has picked up. Energy is booming, etc.

Stay the course


Not a big fan of the Fed with respect to market valuations. Of course, looking at that chart shows the premium to be low for most of the 80's and 90's, which was a terrible time to be in the equity markets. :oops: Besides the Fed, I don't think there are too many people out there who think that the markets are "cheap" today. The range seems to be around the fairly valued camp to the Shiller 24 and change camp, and all points in between.

But what do I know, the Fed has been able to avoid the U.S. from having any financial crisis hit our shores since their inception due to their uncanny ability to forecast accurately and mitigate any problems before they occur. :oops:

RM
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby LH » Wed May 22, 2013 11:31 pm

LadyGeek wrote:Please stay on-topic-: Has the S&P 500 Price Return index peaked at 1,667.47 (as of 17-May-2013 )?

BTW, The S&P 500 Total Return is currently at 2,952.56.


What timeframe does that total return refer to?
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby wriggly » Thu May 23, 2013 1:57 am

Clearly_Irrational wrote:Look for a hammer or doji candle under the bollinger band midline for a good signal. The macd line should be under the signal line for it to be a good entry.


Should I be breaking out the champagne, or lining up for a quarter pounder and fries?
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Clearly_Irrational » Thu May 23, 2013 12:36 pm

wriggly wrote:
Clearly_Irrational wrote:Look for a hammer or doji candle under the bollinger band midline for a good signal. The macd line should be under the signal line for it to be a good entry.


Should I be breaking out the champagne, or lining up for a quarter pounder and fries?


That would depend on whether I turn out to be right and how much leverage you used. So far it looks to be playing out the way I expected.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Clearly_Irrational » Mon Jun 03, 2013 8:41 pm

Clearly_Irrational wrote:
prudent wrote:I do think today marks the start of some type of downturn. But I will still stick to the plan, as I know I can't market time.


I'd argue that it's a pullback amidst an up trend. Short term it's probably a buy point, today is probably not the optimum entry but here in the next few days. Look for a hammer or doji candle under the bollinger band midline for a good signal. The macd line should be under the signal line for it to be a good entry. Current patterns suggest the up move would end around 1800 so it would be a reasonably short trade. Of course if you're buying and holding all of that is irrelevant. (except perhaps in the case of adding new money)


We were getting pretty close to a good entry point however the P&F pattern is now a bearish double bottom breakdown. With a bollinger band squeeze in the works I'd look for a significant move fairly soon with the odds favoring a downside break. Support is around 1623 or so, if we break through that on the downside pattern height suggests a 64 point move but it'll likely stall or bounce off the next lower support at around 1577. P&F has a 1580 price target so that matches. Of course those who favor buy and hold should continue doing that as none of this information would be actionable.
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby Toons » Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:02 pm

No :happy
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Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

Postby LadyGeek » Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:07 pm

I think that just about completes the discussion, this thread has run its course and is locked. See: Forum Policy

Locked Topics

Moderators or site admins may lock a topic (set it so no more replies may be added) when a violation of posting policy has occurred. Occasionally, even if there are no overt violations of posting policy, a topic (or thread) will reach a point where the information content of the discussion has been essentially exhausted and further replies are much more likely to cause distress to the community than add anything of value.


Clearly_Irrational wrote:...We were getting pretty close to a good entry point however the P&F pattern is now a bearish double bottom breakdown. With a bollinger band squeeze in the works I'd look for a significant move fairly soon with the odds favoring a downside break...

With apologies, I have one response - it's a classic: Blue Line Jumps 11 Percent
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