What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

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What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby 1210sda » Tue May 07, 2013 5:53 pm

Today on TV, some talking head stated that since the Dow was at 15,000, it was now a stock pickers market.

My question: What is it when it's NOT a stock pickers market? A non-stock pickers market? A buy-the-market market?

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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby stratton » Tue May 07, 2013 5:58 pm

Nothing is an alternative to a "stock pickers market" because under every market condition I've ever seen it's a "stock pickers market" according to the brokers and pundits.

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A stock-picker's market ?

Postby Taylor Larimore » Tue May 07, 2013 6:01 pm

1210sda wrote:Today on TV, some talking head stated that since the Dow was at 15,000, it was now "a stock pickers market."

Whenever I hear that, I know someone is trying to sell me something.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby larryswedroe » Tue May 07, 2013 6:23 pm

By definition it is never a stock picker's market, in aggregate. But of course you'll never hear that from the financial media or Wall Street because as Taylor said, they need to sell you something
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby inbox788 » Wed May 08, 2013 11:59 am

Bubble? Crash?

I agree with what others have already said. What I understand the expression to mean is that the market isn't in a growth bubble where most all the stocks are increasing, or during a crash when essentially all stock prices fall.

A more technical definitional might involve correlation and dispersion studies, but I have not come across specific measures. Vix measures volatility, so high or rising vix might be a starting point.
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby garlandwhizzer » Wed May 08, 2013 12:19 pm

For those who derive generous fees for "picking stocks" it is always a stock pickers market.

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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby G-Money » Wed May 08, 2013 12:33 pm

1210sda wrote:What is it when it's NOT a stock pickers market? A non-stock pickers market? A buy-the-market market?

1. When trading has stopped for the day.
2. When CNBC is not on your television.
3. When you read the Bogleheads forum.
Don't assume I know what I'm talking about.
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby stlutz » Wed May 08, 2013 10:23 pm

The opposite of a stock picker's market is when you have "risk on/risk off,"
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby Random Musings » Wed May 08, 2013 11:07 pm

The alternative is the rational choice to buy index/passive at low cost. Accept asset class returns and spend your time doing more fruitful endeavors.

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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby nedsaid » Wed May 08, 2013 11:10 pm

They always say that after the market has rallied a lot. It is a way of saying that the low hanging fruit has been picked and now you need expertise to pick the winning stocks. It of course is a bunch of malarky. I own some individual stocks but it is pretty doubtful I have beaten the market. It is always an indexers market.
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby Jebediah » Wed May 08, 2013 11:30 pm

It's a good thing when someone says "stock picker's market". Lets you know you'll never need to listen to them again.
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby sometimesinvestor » Thu May 09, 2013 6:27 pm

Sorry, I sort of agree with stlutz. What they mean I think , and I agree its not obvious is that a non-stock pickers market occurs when correlations are reduced and almost all stocls are up or down on a given day.From a certain point of view a non stock pickers market mean active investors are more crushed by index fund performance than usual.
2008 was a clear example of a stock pickers market but they were mostly not good at it.for example avoiding financials would have been sufficient to outperform the S=P 500 and the total market by a lot.
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby inbox788 » Thu May 09, 2013 7:12 pm

sometimesinvestor wrote:Sorry, I sort of agree with stlutz. What they mean I think , and I agree its not obvious is that a non-stock pickers market occurs when correlations are reduced and almost all stocls are up or down on a given day.From a certain point of view a non stock pickers market mean active investors are more crushed by index fund performance than usual.
2008 was a clear example of a stock pickers market but they were mostly not good at it.for example avoiding financials would have been sufficient to outperform the S=P 500 and the total market by a lot.


Please take another look at my related comment above. Also, there's the term sector pickers market which may describe the financial vs rest of S&P 500 performance. Lately, Obama care has placed health sector as a pick, so as long as you pick any heath plans or pharmaceuticals, you'd be doing well. Another area that's done well as a group is airlines. Sure, there are individual companies that do better or worse but the sectors as a whole is responding to larger forces.
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby Calm Man » Thu May 09, 2013 8:13 pm

A stock picker's market to me is a statement by somebody who makes his or her living picking stocks and needs to convey that this is superior to an index approach. Can you imagine a portfolio manager coming on and saying that all stocks are fairly priced and there is no advantage to actively managing it because nobody knows? I don't think that would happen.
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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby VictoriaF » Thu May 09, 2013 8:39 pm

Here are some alternatives:
- A vegetable market is a vegetable pickers' market.
- A fish market is a fish pickers' market.
- A car market is a car pickers' market.
- A housing market is a house pickers' market.
...
- A stock market is a stock pickers' market.
- An index fund market is an index fund pickers' market.

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Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

Postby nisiprius » Fri May 10, 2013 8:08 am

Of course it's all just verbal nonsense and sloganeering, but if one were to try to pretend it actually meant something, it would have to mean that there are times when stock-picking skill matters more than others. Contrasted, presumably, with times when skill doesn't count and an indexing investor would do as well as a stock-picking expert. I don't think there is a name for those other times, because of course it's just a verbal trick, in support of a persuasion technique I will call "oblique contradiction." (I wonder if salespeople have a name for it?)

If you are trying to convince someone of A, and they firmly believe B, it is not persuasive to say:

"B is wrong. You are stupid."

It is much better to say "My goodness, what a smart, well-informed person you are, I don't meet many like you, a pleasure to be able to discuss this with you and I hope to learn from your insights. A few years back, you know, when things were normal, I might have agreed with you. Back in that golden age, when the stock market was predictable and youths respected their elders and Congress was full of statesmen, not politicians. But we are in an unprecedented era, one like never before, a turbulent and tumultuous era where some stocks are going up and others are going down, and right now we are in a stock-picker's market."

And a few years ago they would say "right now we are in a stock-picker's market" and a few years from now they will say "right now we are in a stock-picker's market."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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