Dow surpasses 15000

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Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Mill » Fri May 03, 2013 10:34 am

So what? :D
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby nepats » Fri May 03, 2013 10:35 am

It makes me happy. It all that counts :sharebeer
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby OverTheHill » Fri May 03, 2013 10:42 am

Mill wrote:So what? :D

Any time the market goes up is a good time as far as I'm concerned. With all the doom and gloom, plus all the bad news of the past several years, it's truly amazing that the market has gone up this much from the bottom of the crash.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Rager1 » Fri May 03, 2013 10:46 am

For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.

Ed
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby OverTheHill » Fri May 03, 2013 10:51 am

Rager1 wrote:For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.

Ed

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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby VictoriaF » Fri May 03, 2013 10:52 am

Rager1 wrote:For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.

Ed


Hi Ed,

By the time Dow reaches 16,124 you will tell us that the inflation adjusted all-time high is 18,357 {smile},

Victoria
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby bUU » Fri May 03, 2013 11:06 am

Can we get some insight into relative over-/under-valuations between the first quarter of 2000 and now? Maybe that'll get us closer to the "real" all-time high...
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Calm Man » Fri May 03, 2013 11:15 am

I hate it,. It feels so frothy. I look at the jobs and think it stinks. But the market loves it. That's why I don't know anything.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Ruprecht » Fri May 03, 2013 11:54 am

Image
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby wilpat » Fri May 03, 2013 11:58 am

I remember about 45 years ago when the headline said "Dow Jones Average approaches 1000"!
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby allsop » Fri May 03, 2013 12:00 pm

Rager1 wrote:For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.

Ed


Are dividends included in the above?
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby gasman » Fri May 03, 2013 12:01 pm

Mill wrote:So what? :D


It is significant for two reasons.

1. I am a little closer to needing to rebalance into bonds
2. As the total portfolio grows, I am considering adjusting stock exposure downward, i.e. altering stock/bond mix.

That's what.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Iorek » Fri May 03, 2013 12:02 pm

Only 21,000 to go!
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby House Blend » Fri May 03, 2013 12:11 pm

Rager1 wrote:For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.


If you're allowed to include inflation, then I am allowed to include dividends. In that case, the S&P500 is already > 3% ahead of where it was in real terms in 2000.

From 23 March 2000 to yesterday, the total return of the S&P 500: 34.01%
Add another 1% for todays gains (?).
Historical inflation from 2000 to 2012: 31.67%
Source: http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby bogle2013 » Fri May 03, 2013 12:25 pm

I hit a rebalancing band and just exchanged TSM for Limited Term Tax Exempt. It was a little painful to be honest, the frequent trading warning saying I couldn't rebuy TSM until 7/2/2013 for some reason gave me pause (although I know there are a ton of "close enough" funds I could use for rebalancing if need be. But now that I am done, I feel good about it.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby chisey » Fri May 03, 2013 12:47 pm

bogle2013 wrote:I hit a rebalancing band and just exchanged TSM for Limited Term Tax Exempt. It was a little painful to be honest, the frequent trading warning saying I couldn't rebuy TSM until 7/2/2013 for some reason gave me pause (although I know there are a ton of "close enough" funds I could use for rebalancing if need be. But now that I am done, I feel good about it.


Naturally, I hit a band yesterday and rebalanced from mid caps to bonds. So there's a chunk of change in today's gains that I'll miss out on. Rebalancing gives me some of the same queasy feelings as the thought of market timing does, because things just like this (missing gains) happen. But who knows . . . by next Friday the market could plunge 5% and I will be well ahead. You just don't know, and in the end I want to keep my risk level where I'm comfortable.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby gerrym51 » Fri May 03, 2013 12:54 pm

somthing to remember :mrgreen:


http://www.amazon.com/Dow-40-000-David- ... 0+glassman


1998 publication
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby bertilak » Fri May 03, 2013 12:58 pm

gerrym51 wrote:somthing to remember :mrgreen:


http://www.amazon.com/Dow-40-000-David- ... 0+glassman

To remember or look forward to: We still have over three and a half years! :sharebeer
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby DoWahDaddy » Fri May 03, 2013 1:01 pm

Iorek wrote:Only 21,000 to go!

true! nobody said it'd be a straight line.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby EternalOptimist » Fri May 03, 2013 1:12 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Rager1 wrote:For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.

Ed


Hi Ed,

By the time Dow reaches 16,124 you will tell us that the inflation adjusted all-time high is 18,357 {smile},

Victoria



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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby yukon50 » Sat May 04, 2013 1:32 am

If the market went on a 80's/90's-style 17 yr run starting back in 2009, how high would it go? Didn't PE ratio hit around 45 in 1999 and right now it is around 15?
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Ed 2 » Sat May 04, 2013 1:45 am

Mill wrote:So what? :D

exectly 8-) .I care only about S&P or Wilshire 5000
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby wander » Sat May 04, 2013 6:51 am

I don't retire yet, so it doesn't matter.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Scooter57 » Sat May 04, 2013 10:22 am

It's no mystery why the market is rising even while the majority of large companies are reporting disappointing revenues. The repression of rates is making is so there is nowhere else to invest.

Added to that, a huge surge of boomers with savings who have been forced to retire early are chasing yield by putting their retirement savings into dividend stocks.

The market could go on rising for quite a while--at least as long as interest rate repression continues--or the current bull market could end on Monday. And when it ends the market could just slow down, or it could drop back to the levels we saw in 2008. Or below.

When they talk about a Random Walk, they really mean a Random Walk. I always hark back to that graph that Malkiel includes in his book of that name which shows the fake stock chart his students achieved by flipping coins. It looked just like a real stock (or index) chart. It went up for long stretches, just as the market is doing now. It dropped suddenly, too.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby gerrym51 » Sat May 04, 2013 10:44 am

my wife and i have mostly target date funds which ssem to be doing well.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby HardKnocker » Sat May 04, 2013 10:57 am

Dow 30,000 by next year! :D
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby OverTheHill » Sat May 04, 2013 11:31 am

You got to love financial theory. For many prior years, a lot of financial pundits predicted that the market would collapse when the Boomers sell equities to buy fixed assets following or approaching retirement. Now, the same pundits are saying that retired or soon to retire Boomers are bidding equities to higher levels by leaving bonds in favor of equities.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby Toons » Sat May 04, 2013 12:21 pm

Seem like just yesterday Dow was around 850 when I invested my first dollar :happy
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby MnD » Sat May 04, 2013 12:27 pm

Rager1 wrote:For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.

Ed


While ignoring dividends, small cap tilt, value tilt, international, emerging markets, rebalancing, dollar cost averaging, 30-year bull market in bonds........

The doom and gloom guy in my office is claiming "people" have barely gotten back to even in their retirement accounts - my portfolio disagrees. 8-)
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby momar » Sat May 04, 2013 12:36 pm

House Blend wrote:
Rager1 wrote:For the record, here are the real (inflation adjusted--as of 3/13) levels that need to be exceeded to qualify as an all-time high:

Dow.....................16,124
S&P500...................2,106
NASDAQ.................6,847
Wilshire 5000.......20,005

All of these levels were set during the first quarter of 2000.


If you're allowed to include inflation, then I am allowed to include dividends. In that case, the S&P500 is already > 3% ahead of where it was in real terms in 2000.

From 23 March 2000 to yesterday, the total return of the S&P 500: 34.01%
Add another 1% for todays gains (?).
Historical inflation from 2000 to 2012: 31.67%
Source: http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

Dividends need to be included when looking at portfolio growth, but I'm not sure past dividends need to be included when deciding whether the market is fairly valued. They are a bit irrelevant looking forward. Current dividend yields matter, of course.
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby bayview » Sat May 04, 2013 12:45 pm

OverTheHill wrote:You got to love financial theory. For many prior years, a lot of financial pundits predicted that the market would collapse when the Boomers sell equities to buy fixed assets following or approaching retirement. Now, the same pundits are saying that retired or soon to retire Boomers are bidding equities to higher levels by leaving bonds in favor of equities.

It's always our fault. No matter what happens, it's always the fault of boomers. 8-)
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby HardKnocker » Sat May 04, 2013 2:30 pm

If the market keeps going up by 15-20% a year, we'll all be rich! :greedy
“Gold gets dug out of the ground, then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”--Warren Buffett
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Re: Dow surpasses 15000

Postby am » Sat May 04, 2013 2:51 pm

HardKnocker wrote:If the market keeps going up by 15-20% a year, we'll all be rich! :greedy


We should all keep buying so the market goes up and up. Can there ever be a point where the demand for stocks and ETFs exceeds supply?
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