Bill Gross and the Man in the Mirror

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Bill Gross and the Man in the Mirror

Postby pingo » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:06 pm

Pimco's Bill Gross is usually interesting to read, and here's a Morningstar post I thought would grab the attention of our forum:

A Man in the Mirror, by Bill Gross.

In it he discusses investor overconfidence and that one cannot see oneself in anything but a distorted fashion. Here's one nugget:

Bill Gross wrote:The Financial Times just published a study confirming that a significant majority of computer simulated monkeys beat the stock market between 1968 and 2011 – good looking monkeys that is. [...] So time and longevity must be a critical consideration in any objective confirmation of “greatness” in this business. 10 years, 20 years, 30 years? How many coins do you have to flip before a string of heads begins to suggest that it must be a two-headed coin, loaded with some philosophical/commonsensical bias that places the long-term odds clearly in a firm’s or an individual’s favor? I must tell you, after 40 rather successful years, I still don’t know if I or PIMCO qualifies. I don’t know if anyone, including investing’s most esteemed “oracle” Warren Buffett, does, and here’s why.


Luck appears to have a lot to do with investing success, he says.

:beer
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Re: Bill Gross and the Man in the Mirror

Postby G-Money » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:36 pm

Strange subject matter for an active manager. How can an investor read that and not think to himself: "Maybe I should sell some of my holdings in PIMCO Total Return and buy some [insert favorite bond index fund here]"?

On the other hand, for investors who have been invested in PIMCO Total Return for the long haul, it appears there is something to the old adage: "Better to be lucky than good."
Don't assume I know what I'm talking about.
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Re: Bill Gross and the Man in the Mirror

Postby Random Musings » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:12 pm

I betcha Bill Miller has a nice big mirror that he looks into.

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Re: Bill Gross and the Man in the Mirror

Postby leo383 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:20 pm

Ironic that this comes from one of the very few managers who can probably look in that mirror and conclude, "talent".
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Re: Bill Gross and the Man in the Mirror

Postby YDNAL » Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:02 pm

pingo wrote:Pimco's Bill Gross is usually interesting to read, and here's a Morningstar post I thought would grab the attention of our forum:

A Man in the Mirror, by Bill Gross.

Thanks for posting! This is weird coming from the active Bond guru. :?
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