Thanks will read the paper
Here is my take, knowing I can be wrong
1) The Japanese interest payments are now 25% of all revenue
2) That is with interest rate average on debt of close to 0.5%
3) say just make that 2% and 100% of that makes it 100% of revenue goes to just pay interest, nothing left for anything else
4) population imploding, set to collapse and aging population, ratio of worker to retiree awful--you think we have problem?
5)no natural resources and now no nuclear plants
6)Japanese companies see this so they are buying up overseas companies to move their assets offshore
IMO this is what all the issues are related to the fighting with China over "rocks"---the natural resources are there.
This is how wars start---pretty scary scenario
IMO, if I could take a bet and willing to due it would be to short Japanese debt. Some very smart guys I know are doing just that, they know they might be early but they are sure they are right and based on analysis I have seen IMO they are
I think you need to check your numbers. Japan's interest payments are running about 13% of revenue, just a little higher than the U.S. Japan's interest burden as a percentage of GDP is just 1%, which is even lower than the U.S, hardly crippling even if interest rates rise. Note that the U.S. interest burden was more than four times as high through the 80s and 90s and survived just fine. Further, the Bank of Japan owns about 10% of the debt and refunds the interest to the treasury.
Your numbers might be distorted by the recession of 2008-2009 which temporarily lowered tax revenues.
An aging and declining population means less crowding, cheaper housing, higher employment and higher wages for the young. Even with an aging population, rising productivity means a higher GDP per capita and higher living standards. What's not to like about that?