Updated Boglehead Contest Top 25 by Win Probability
Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:29 am
As of the end of January, S&P 500 return mean and variance estimated from historical data.
standing, name, % probability to win, guess
1 k66 10.264% 2061.24
2 tadamsmar 7.001% 1901.75
3 peppers 4.485% 1854.20
4 NYnative 3.366% 1821.20
5 madbrain 3.001% 2324.38
6 Mint Condition 2.831% 1798.00
7 bdavidson 2.646% 1776.00
8 wriggly 2.443% 1901.74
9 hpowders 1.437% 1757.07
10 ezeiza 1.405% 1035.00
11 BenBritt 1.270% 1116.43
12 pshonore 1.047% 1725.25
13 Harold 0.994% 1739.73
14 IlikeJackB 0.973% 1739.96
15 Keep It Simple 0.950% 1754.21
16 adamcate 0.930% 1703.10
17 gotherelate 0.908% 1691.47
18 Don Christy 0.800% 1718.19
19 renditt 0.782% 1161.00
20 norookie 0.764% 1331.11
21 lloydbraun 0.697% 1405.45
22 rr2 0.664% 1283.63
23 steve r 0.635% 1671.22
24 mikenz 0.599% 1345.67
25 michaelsieg 0.595% 1040.00
standing, name, % probability to win, guess
1 k66 10.264% 2061.24
2 tadamsmar 7.001% 1901.75
3 peppers 4.485% 1854.20
4 NYnative 3.366% 1821.20
5 madbrain 3.001% 2324.38
6 Mint Condition 2.831% 1798.00
7 bdavidson 2.646% 1776.00
8 wriggly 2.443% 1901.74
9 hpowders 1.437% 1757.07
10 ezeiza 1.405% 1035.00
11 BenBritt 1.270% 1116.43
12 pshonore 1.047% 1725.25
13 Harold 0.994% 1739.73
14 IlikeJackB 0.973% 1739.96
15 Keep It Simple 0.950% 1754.21
16 adamcate 0.930% 1703.10
17 gotherelate 0.908% 1691.47
18 Don Christy 0.800% 1718.19
19 renditt 0.782% 1161.00
20 norookie 0.764% 1331.11
21 lloydbraun 0.697% 1405.45
22 rr2 0.664% 1283.63
23 steve r 0.635% 1671.22
24 mikenz 0.599% 1345.67
25 michaelsieg 0.595% 1040.00