Updated Boglehead Contest Top 25 by Win Probability

[tadamsmar]

As of the end of January, S&P 500 return mean and variance estimated from historical data.

standing, name, % probability to win, guess

1 k66 10.264% 2061.24
2 tadamsmar 7.001% 1901.75
3 peppers 4.485% 1854.20
4 NYnative 3.366% 1821.20
5 madbrain 3.001% 2324.38
6 Mint Condition 2.831% 1798.00
7 bdavidson 2.646% 1776.00
8 wriggly 2.443% 1901.74
9 hpowders 1.437% 1757.07
10 ezeiza 1.405% 1035.00
11 BenBritt 1.270% 1116.43
12 pshonore 1.047% 1725.25
13 Harold 0.994% 1739.73
14 IlikeJackB 0.973% 1739.96
15 Keep It Simple 0.950% 1754.21
16 adamcate 0.930% 1703.10
17 gotherelate 0.908% 1691.47
18 Don Christy 0.800% 1718.19
19 renditt 0.782% 1161.00
20 norookie 0.764% 1331.11
21 lloydbraun 0.697% 1405.45
22 rr2 0.664% 1283.63
23 steve r 0.635% 1671.22
24 mikenz 0.599% 1345.67
25 michaelsieg 0.595% 1040.00

[bogleblitz]

I don't understand this. The S&P 500 has a 10% chance to go to 2061.24 based on January performance?

I feel like it has 1% chance to get to 2061.
The good news I read is that gains in January usually means gain for the year.

[gkaplan]

I don't understand this. The S&P 500 has a 10% chance to go to 2061.24 based on January performance?

I feel like it has 1% chance to get to 2061.
The good news I read is that gains in January usually means gain for the year.

Only if the Forty Niners win Sunday.

[tadamsmar]

I don't understand this. The S&P 500 has a 10% chance to go to 2061.24 based on January performance?

I feel like it has 1% chance to get to 2061.
The good news I read is that gains in January usually means gain for the year.

There is a 10% chance that 2061.24 will be the closest guess at the close. That's not the same as going to 2061.24

But if you even look at the percentage gains for the last 100 years you will see that the percentage gain required to get to 2061.24 has been exceeded a number of times in those 100 data points. So 1% is an underestimate for exceeding 2061 even if you don't take into account January's 5% gain.