Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

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Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Sunny Sarkar » Fri Feb 01, 2013 12:05 pm

Just heard Jack Bogle on the NPR news at 10am commenting on the Dow crossing 14000. He pointed out that it's just a number.

http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlaye ... list=false
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby NYBoglehead » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:10 pm

Just a number indeed. I'll never claim to be an expert on the stock market, but I cannot stand when the talking heads on TV blabber on about a "support level," implying that at a certain number things magically change.

And regarding the psychological aspect of it, if these geniuses that run the show get all excited every time a round number is passed we should be highly skeptical of what value they supposedly add.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby dpc » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:17 pm

I always recall Jack Bogle relating some advice he got from a trader in his early days on Wall Street: "Nobody knows nothin'".

The talking heads have to talk about something because that's what they get paid for. The columnists have to turn in a certain number of words on deadline every week regardless of their level of knowledge or insight.

Life seems better since I quit watching the news on TV.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Kevin21 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:28 pm

dpc wrote:I always recall Jack Bogle relating some advice he got from a trader in his early days on Wall Street: "Nobody knows nothin'".

The talking heads have to talk about something because that's what they get paid for. The columnists have to turn in a certain number of words on deadline every week regardless of their level of knowledge or insight.

Life seems better since I quit watching the news on TV.


CNBC is just as terrifying to me as all the other 24/7 news channels. Pure garbage.
I suppose it's what the viewers want, or think they want to consume.

It's all like a Mike Judge film gone horribly wrong, but in real life.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Don Christy » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:48 pm

Speaking of Jack Bogle and CNBC, Jack was just on CNBC this morning.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby NYBoglehead » Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:59 pm

I try not to watch too much CNBC, but I always try to tune in when Jack is on. I love the stupid look everyone gives when he's taking them to task on how active managers underperform the index. "But Jack, come on! If the index goes down people are screwed, surely you know that! Now to provide the other side of the market is active manager A who does not outperform the market but will act like he does..."
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Jordana » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:08 pm

I keep waiting for the interest rate to shoot up and/or for Mr Market to realize how bad the economy is, but it is not happening. I think that the Fed is trying to keep the market up, but I can't understand why is it working. I was incredulous when I looked at the computer today.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby NAVigator » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:20 pm

Kudos to NPR for airing Jack Bogle to remind people that this level is "just a number". Other news media feature the people reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.

Jerry
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The Boglehead approach

Postby Taylor Larimore » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:25 pm

Jordana wrote:I keep waiting for the interest rate to shoot up and/or for Mr Market to realize how bad the economy is, but it is not happening. I think that the Fed is trying to keep the market up, but I can't understand why is it working. I was incredulous when I looked at the computer today.


Jordana:

This was your first forum post:
I keep a lot in cash (6 figures) so that I can buy into the market. I have been through gyrations. It is hard to keep the course but it is more difficult to sell something to buy something else. Hence the cash.

Are you trying to guess when to get into and out of the market (market timing)? If so, there are countless studies showing that it doesn't work.

The Boglehead method is to structure a long-term asset-allocation plan--then stay-the-course.

Best wishes
Taylor
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Fallible » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:31 pm

NAVigator wrote:Kudos to NPR for airing Jack Bogle to remind people that this level is "just a number". Other news media feature the people reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.

Jerry


Yes, I also was glad NPR used that comment from Jack. "Just a number" says it all, and in fact I think shortly after it hit 14,000, it dropped back down.
"Common sense and a sense of humor are the same thing, moving at different speeds. A sense of humor is just common sense, dancing." -William James
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby stingray5688 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:36 pm

Fallible wrote:
NAVigator wrote:Kudos to NPR for airing Jack Bogle to remind people that this level is "just a number". Other news media feature the people reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.

Jerry


Yes, I also was glad NPR used that comment from Jack. "Just a number" says it all, and in fact I think shortly after it hit 14,000, it dropped back down.


It's back over now baby!! Every time it drops and crosses back over 14,000, that's cause for celebration!!! :sharebeer
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby VictoriaF » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:40 pm

NAVigator wrote:Kudos to NPR for airing Jack Bogle to remind people that this level is "just a number".

Jerry


While 14,000 is "just a number," it affects one's personal numbers; specifically, the asset allocation percentages. After a recent market rise, some rebalancing could be in order.

Victoria
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby letsgobobby » Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:58 pm

most human beings react favorably to round numbers, familiar faces, and easily pronounceable words. Apparently most Bogleheads are not like most human beings.

I love watching CNBC. Pure. Entertainment. Better than sports for running on the treadmill.

Once at the gym I had a great, longish (for a treadmill) run watching a terrific made-for-BBC (but boradcast on CNBC) movie about the 08 crisis, starring James Cromwell as Hank Paulson. I've never been able to find it again, but it was superbly done. I laughed, I cried... yes, better than Cats.

Who can hate on such haute couture?
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby jvclark02 » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:00 pm

.

It's back over now baby!! Every time it drops and crosses back over 14,000, that's cause for celebration!!! :sharebeer


I agree, but I'm getting a buzz with the repeated crossings :sharebeer
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Fallible » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:13 pm

stingray5688 wrote:
Fallible wrote:
NAVigator wrote:Kudos to NPR for airing Jack Bogle to remind people that this level is "just a number". Other news media feature the people reading the tea leaves and predicting the future.

Jerry


Yes, I also was glad NPR used that comment from Jack. "Just a number" says it all, and in fact I think shortly after it hit 14,000, it dropped back down.


It's back over now baby!! Every time it drops and crosses back over 14,000, that's cause for celebration!!! :sharebeer


Waaaay back when it first hit 14,000 in the fall of '07, some investing friends and I celebrated what we called a "Just a Number" party (really just a lunch with wine and beer). We knew in one sense it was just a number, but in another sense it was cause for celebration. :beer (we need a "wine" icon). Good thing we celebrated then, before the world as we knew it crashed and burned.
"Common sense and a sense of humor are the same thing, moving at different speeds. A sense of humor is just common sense, dancing." -William James
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby VictoriaF » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:15 pm

Fallible wrote:Waaaay back when it first hit 14,000 in the fall of '07, some investing friends and I celebrated what we called a "Just a Number" party (really just a lunch with wine and beer). We knew in one sense it was just a number, but in another sense it was cause for celebration. :beer (we need a "wine" icon). Good thing we celebrated then, before the world as we knew it crashed and burned.


As far as "just numbers" go, I prefer 15, with several zeros behind it, of course,

Victoria
Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Toons » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:16 pm

Remember the Euphoria when the Nasdaq reached an all time high of 5,132.52,March 10-2000 :shock:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby VictoriaF » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:18 pm

Speaking of "just numbers," it does not matter what Jack or the rest of us think about them. What matters is what the rest of the world does when Dow reaches new highs. And if they, perversely, will accelerate purchases, our, prudent, planning should account for that.

Victoria
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:28 pm

Yes, it's just a number. As we approach the "bands", I'll be sure to adjust mine so as not to freak out like the talking heads :oops: when we experience a bit of inevitable turbulence.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby MnD » Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:16 pm

VictoriaF wrote:Speaking of "just numbers," it does not matter what Jack or the rest of us think about them. What matters is what the rest of the world does when Dow reaches new highs. And if they, perversely, will accelerate purchases, our, prudent, planning should account for that.

Victoria


I'm weird in that I genuinely enjoy like all the hullabaloo, buy high sell low types finally getting back into the market, CNBC noise, work people talking about stocks again, the market being the lead story on national news Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding ............. :mrgreen:

I'm always doing the opposite of "the herd", and when the herd is on the move piling in I'm making money and moving some of that cash into safer investments. Or when they are moving the opposite direction I'm buying their panic-sold shares on the cheap.

I remember buying ETF's in 2008/09 in various accounts with markets crashing around me -individual ETF trades in the many 10's of thousands of $'s just to get my AA back to where it it should be. I wanted to really get it right as far as getting the right type of investments in the various type accounts as well as the overall AA _and do good tax loss harvesting trades - quite the rush!
Periodic sales the last couple of years to rebalance are not quite as exciting, but watching the net worth keep heading north and hitting major milestones does provide some consolation. :happy
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby NYBoglehead » Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:47 pm

Plus everyone seems to forget this tiny little thing called inflation. Dow 14,000 in 2013 does not represent the same value it did in 2007. Even with moderate inflation in the 1-2% annual range compounded over ~5ish years we need to add another ~1,000+ points to the DJIA to get back to the previous highs, no? (In terms of real value, not nominal)
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Bungo » Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:49 pm

I'm still in the accumulation phase, so I wish it was just a smaller number!
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby z3r0c00l » Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:23 pm

My inflation calculator says we need to hit about 16,000 to get to the all time inflation adjusted high, and the next nearest round number. I personally will be excited to see 20,000, could come in a few years.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby letsgobobby » Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:29 pm

MnD wrote:
I remember buying ETF's in 2008/09 in various accounts with markets crashing around me -individual ETF trades in the many 10's of thousands of $'s just to get my AA back to where it it should be. I wanted to really get it right as far as getting the right type of investments in the various type accounts as well as the overall AA _and do good tax loss harvesting trades - quite the rush!

I really agree with this - I was going from 25% stocks in 2007 to almost 70% stocks by 2009... by far the most adrenaline I've felt in my short 15 years as an investor. I could not get enough of the media, the stories, the day the Dow tanked 700 points in 2 minutes when Congress first rejected TARP. There was lots to keep abreast of. The human suffering and the mass layoffs, however, prevented any of the adrenaline from being translated into 'joy.'

I do resent buying at higher prices now.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby EmergDoc » Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:21 pm

Hmmmm....kind of euphoric. I better make sure I've got enough in bonds and maybe pay down some debt.

The sentiment on this forum seems to me to have been a fairly reliable indicator of future market performance over the last decade or so.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby Buckeye » Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:28 pm

Don Christy wrote:Speaking of Jack Bogle and CNBC, Jack was just on CNBC this morning.

I think he mentioned a 100% return over the next decade for stocks and 35% for bonds.
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Re: Jack Bogle on NPR news on Dow 14000

Postby abuss368 » Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:38 pm

The financial folks on television can drive one crazy! I watch CNBC not for the news, but only the programming such as American Greed, the specials on an individual company (Walmart, Coca Cola, McDonald's, etc)., and the new biographies. The rest I can do without.
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