Scary economic news. What to do?

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Scary economic news. What to do?

Postby Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:33 pm

Bogleheads:

A reader of Mike Piper's Oblivious Investor, worried about economic news, asked Mike this question:

“I am a recent retiree looking to balance protection and income in my investment portfolio in this difficult economy. Given the recent troubles in the eurozone and the news that the UK might leave the EU, do you think US investors should be moving away from european stocks?”

Mike gave, what I think, is this excellent reply:
Generally speaking, I do not think it makes sense to adjust one’s allocation to a given stock, industry, or country based on economic news.

The reason I don’t think it makes sense to make such changes is that new information about a stock (or a group of stocks, such as a country or region) is typically reflected very quickly in the stock’s price. (This is what people mean when they say the market is “efficient.”)

As a result, investing based on economic news is an “early bird gets the worm” sort of thing. And, if you found out about the news in question by reading it on CNN, Google News, or some other website with many thousands of readers, you are not the early bird.

In fact, you wouldn’t even be the early bird if you were the journalist writing the story. If you were the source the journalist called to get information about the story, then you might be the early bird. (Or rather, you might have been the early bird, if you had acted on the information several days or weeks ago.)

In other words, you can reasonably expect to earn extra returns by reacting to economic news only if you have reason to think that the rest of the market:

1. Doesn’t know about the news (though you would then want to be careful of insider trading rules), or
2. Is interpreting the news incorrectly (and therefore pricing the stock or group of stocks incorrectly).

And given how many analysts there are paying attention to every corner of the market, such situations don’t arise terribly often for most investors.

I think Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis gave excellent advice in a 2012 interview for Vanguard’s client newsletter:

“I encourage our clients to try to minimize the attention they pay to economic news, because I think that can actually lead to the pitfall of wanting to react.”

Best wishes
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: Scary economic news. What to do?

Postby EternalOptimist » Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:43 pm

Amen...relax, the sun will come up tomorrow 8-)
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Re: Scary economic news. What to do?

Postby NYBoglehead » Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:44 pm

Excellent analysis. Particularly fitting today, since it was announced that the economy contracted 0.1% in Q4 2012.
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Re: Scary economic news. What to do?

Postby sschullo » Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:25 pm

The fact that the retiree is concerned, he or she might need a check up on asset allocation. That said, only think long term or get a fiduciary, fee-only, financial adviser to help you stay the course.
“It’s what you learn, after you know it all, that counts.” - John Wooden
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Re: Scary economic news. What to do?

Postby Default User BR » Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:30 pm

Seems like a good one for a fortune cookie: "You are not the early bird."


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Re: Scary economic news. What to do?

Postby Frugal Al » Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:07 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Amen...relax, the sun will come up tomorrow 8-)

I liked the line in the movie, "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," where Dev Patel's character says, "Everything will be fine in the end. If it is not fine, then it is not the end."
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