2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

[Taylor Larimore]

Boglehead Contestants:

Back in January, hollowcave2 forecast that the S&P 500 index would end this year at 1402.61. It is now 1402.53. Forecasting does not get closer than this! Will hollowcave2 maintain the lead one more trading day (Monday)? We'll see.

2012 Boglehead Contest

Registration for our 2013 Boglehead Contest will begin January 1st (for 10 days) on this forum. In case of a tie, the first to register wins.

Happy Holidays!
Taylor

[Kathleen Ryan]

Hi Taylor,

Holding fast in 147th place here. Thank you for the update. I'll look forward to the closing bell on Monday to see if my crystal ball is spot on this year. You know the market can move when it is going to. I always strap myself in for whenever the wild ride happens!

Anyway, Congratulations to hollowcave.

Looking forward to casting my prediction again for 2013. I think the best I ever did was a guess that put me in 46th place in 2004.

To date:

50th in 2003
46th in 2004
I think I forgot to play in 2005 and 2009.
66th in 2006
154 in 2007
160 in 2008
88th in 2010
107 in 2011

[baw703916]

I'm hoping for a Really Bad Day on Monday. Mostly so my 2013 Roth contribution can have fortuitous market timing.

[gmtret]

Am I correct in assuming that Monday is a full trading day and so will close at 4:00?

[BHCadet]

I joined in January of this year was hoping to be in the contest.
Sadly, I was couple days late.
Will not miss the contest again in 2013.

[Taylor Larimore]

Am I correct in assuming that Monday is a full trading day and so will close at 4:00?

gmtret:

My 2012 Stock Trader's Almanac shows Monday the same as other full trading days (I am NOT a trader).

Happy Holidays!
Taylor

[Sbashore]

Thanks for the update Taylor. I guess the S&P could move up 92 points tomorrow to put me near the top, but somehow I don't think so. Hope springs eternal however.

[ofcmetz]

I need an awesome fiscal cliff deal to be announced and a big market rally to get to my prediction of 1429.

[Cernel]

Currently ranked 329!!! Not bad for my first prediction. I love this contest!!! This just shows me that I need to stick to my investment philosophy of a diversified portfolio of low cost index funds, re-balance when appropriate, and stay the course.

[wilpat]

Am I correct in assuming that Monday is a full trading day and so will close at 4:00?

Yes )

[Silence Dogood]

This is my first time participating in this contest. I'm in 9th place now but somehow I doubt I will win..

8. max12377 1400.01
9. Silence Dogood 1400.00
13. jvclark02 1399.99

[goalie]

2012 was my first Boglehead contest. I am currently #372. I am hoping for a big push on the final day of the year...
For the 2013 I will let one of my kids pick a number, I'm sure they will do better that I did in '12. Chip

[hpowders]

Whoever's down 3-5% from the lead, take heart. You may win, [political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

[Taylor Larimore]

Currently ranked 329!!! Not bad for my first prediction. I love this contest!!! This just shows me that I need to stick to my investment philosophy of a diversified portfolio of low cost index funds, re-balance when appropriate, and stay the course.

Cernel:

Your post is the reason I started the Boglehead Contest in 2001.

Happy New Year!
Taylor

[Norris]

I'm hoping for a Really Bad Day on Monday. Mostly so my 2013 Roth contribution can have fortuitous market timing.

I tried to fund my 2013 Roth via Vanguard this morning but it won't allow it. I get a message stating my 2012 is fully funded. I'm guessing the Wednesday, Jan 2nd closing price will apply.

Norris

[mickeyd]

Quite a logjam. Wonder if Monday's S&P will free it up...

1 tarheal93 1414.14 0.14
1 Wabbit 1414.14 0.14
1 schellhase 1414.14 0.14
1 VennData 1414.14 0.14

[ofcmetz]

Woohoo, I came in ninth!!! I will use this success to launch a financially lucrative newsletter called The Donut Investor.

[EmergDoc]

Within 2%, I consider that a pretty successful guess. But it only got me into the top 100. If the market had gone down today instead of up, I'd be a lot higher on the list. 95th is okay I guess, but not as good as 24th last year and 5th the year before.

[Sam I Am]

Woo Hoo! I'm number 205! I'm number 205!

Well, that's what I get for being an optimist.

S&P at 1500? Yeah, in my dreams, maybe!

So when does the 2013 contest sign-up begin?

Sam I Am

[Boglenaut]

Woo Hoo! I'm number 205! I'm number 205!

Well, that's what I get for being an optimist.

S&P at 1500? Yeah, in my dreams, maybe!

So when does the 2013 contest sign-up begin?

Sam I Am

I was too optimistics as well... I guessed 1490 and came in 170th place.

It's just as well. If I had won there would have been great temptation to start a market-timing newsletter.

I do feel I came reasonably close considering how much it wiggles and squirms.

[Default User BR]

Boglehead Contestants:

Back in January, hollowcave2 forecast that the S&P 500 index would end this year at 1402.61. It is now 1402.53. Forecasting does not get closer than this! Will hollowcave2 maintain the lead one more trading day (Monday)? We'll see.

From 1st to 62nd in a day. Oh the humanity.


Brian

[alisa4804]

Congrats TAINTED-MEAT, the apparent winner! 2012 was a better year for the S&P500 than many of us expected!