2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

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2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:03 pm

Boglehead Contestants:

Back in January, hollowcave2 forecast that the S&P 500 index would end this year at 1402.61. It is now 1402.53. Forecasting does not get closer than this! Will hollowcave2 maintain the lead one more trading day (Monday)? We'll see.

2012 Boglehead Contest

Registration for our 2013 Boglehead Contest will begin January 1st (for 10 days) on this forum. In case of a tie, the first to register wins.

Happy Holidays!
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Kathleen Ryan » Sat Dec 29, 2012 9:10 pm

Hi Taylor,

Holding fast in 147th place here. Thank you for the update. I'll look forward to the closing bell on Monday to see if my crystal ball is spot on this year. You know the market can move when it is going to. I always strap myself in for whenever the wild ride happens!

Anyway, Congratulations to hollowcave.

Looking forward to casting my prediction again for 2013. I think the best I ever did was a guess that put me in 46th place in 2004.

To date:

50th in 2003
46th in 2004
I think I forgot to play in 2005 and 2009.
66th in 2006
154 in 2007
160 in 2008
88th in 2010
107 in 2011
Best wishes, | Kathleen
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby baw703916 » Sat Dec 29, 2012 9:14 pm

I'm hoping for a Really Bad Day on Monday. Mostly so my 2013 Roth contribution can have fortuitous market timing.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby gmtret » Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:25 pm

Am I correct in assuming that Monday is a full trading day and so will close at 4:00?
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby BHCadet » Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:46 am

I joined in January of this year was hoping to be in the contest.
Sadly, I was couple days late.
Will not miss the contest again in 2013.
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Sun Dec 30, 2012 8:31 am

gmtret wrote:Am I correct in assuming that Monday is a full trading day and so will close at 4:00?


gmtret:

My 2012 Stock Trader's Almanac shows Monday the same as other full trading days (I am NOT a trader).

Happy Holidays!
Taylor
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Sbashore » Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:14 pm

Thanks for the update Taylor. I guess the S&P could move up 92 points tomorrow to put me near the top, but somehow I don't think so. Hope springs eternal however. :D
Steve | Semper Fi
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby ofcmetz » Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:39 pm

I need an awesome fiscal cliff deal to be announced and a big market rally to get to my prediction of 1429. :sharebeer
Showing up at the donut shop at 5 am to get them hot out of the oil is an example of successful market timing.
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Cernel » Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:52 pm

Currently ranked 329!!! Not bad for my first prediction. I love this contest!!! This just shows me that I need to stick to my investment philosophy of a diversified portfolio of low cost index funds, re-balance when appropriate, and stay the course.
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby wilpat » Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:22 pm

gmtret wrote:Am I correct in assuming that Monday is a full trading day and so will close at 4:00?

Yes :o)
Contrary to the belief of many, profit is not a four letter word!
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Silence Dogood » Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:36 pm

This is my first time participating in this contest. I'm in 9th place now but somehow I doubt I will win..

8. max12377 1400.01
9. Silence Dogood 1400.00
13. jvclark02 1399.99
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby goalie » Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:12 pm

2012 was my first Boglehead contest. I am currently #372. I am hoping for a big push on the final day of the year... :shock:
For the 2013 I will let one of my kids pick a number, I'm sure they will do better that I did in '12. Chip
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby hpowders » Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:40 pm

Whoever's down 3-5% from the lead, take heart. You may win, [political comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
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Lesson learned.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:54 pm

Cernel wrote:Currently ranked 329!!! Not bad for my first prediction. I love this contest!!! This just shows me that I need to stick to my investment philosophy of a diversified portfolio of low cost index funds, re-balance when appropriate, and stay the course.

Cernel:

Your post is the reason I started the Boglehead Contest in 2001.

Happy New Year!
Taylor
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Norris » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:33 pm

baw703916 wrote:I'm hoping for a Really Bad Day on Monday. Mostly so my 2013 Roth contribution can have fortuitous market timing.


I tried to fund my 2013 Roth via Vanguard this morning but it won't allow it. I get a message stating my 2012 is fully funded. I'm guessing the Wednesday, Jan 2nd closing price will apply.

Norris
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby mickeyd » Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:23 pm

Quite a logjam. Wonder if Monday's S&P will free it up... :confused


1 tarheal93 1414.14 0.14
1 Wabbit 1414.14 0.14
1 schellhase 1414.14 0.14
1 VennData 1414.14 0.14
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby ofcmetz » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:38 pm

Woohoo, I came in ninth!!! I will use this success to launch a financially lucrative newsletter called The Donut Investor. :sharebeer
Showing up at the donut shop at 5 am to get them hot out of the oil is an example of successful market timing.
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby EmergDoc » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:44 pm

Within 2%, I consider that a pretty successful guess. But it only got me into the top 100. If the market had gone down today instead of up, I'd be a lot higher on the list. 95th is okay I guess, but not as good as 24th last year and 5th the year before.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Sam I Am » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:48 pm

Message deleted.
Last edited by Sam I Am on Sun Oct 06, 2013 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Boglenaut » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:52 pm

Sam I Am wrote:Woo Hoo! I'm number 205! I'm number 205! :sharebeer

Well, that's what I get for being an optimist. :oops:

S&P at 1500? Yeah, in my dreams, maybe!

So when does the 2013 contest sign-up begin?

Sam I Am


I was too optimistics as well... I guessed 1490 and came in 170th place.

It's just as well. If I had won there would have been great temptation to start a market-timing newsletter. :sharebeer

I do feel I came reasonably close considering how much it wiggles and squirms.
The problem with being a Boglehead is the more time you spend on it, the worse you get. It makes for a lousy hobby.
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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby Default User BR » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:58 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:Boglehead Contestants:

Back in January, hollowcave2 forecast that the S&P 500 index would end this year at 1402.61. It is now 1402.53. Forecasting does not get closer than this! Will hollowcave2 maintain the lead one more trading day (Monday)? We'll see.

From 1st to 62nd in a day. Oh the humanity.


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Re: 2012 Boglehead Contest -- One more trading day.

Postby alisa4804 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:30 pm

Congrats TAINTED-MEAT, the apparent winner! 2012 was a better year for the S&P500 than many of us expected! :sharebeer
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