Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

[kd2008]

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/12 ... ml?hp&_r=0

2013 Year-end target for the S&P 500
GOLDMAN SACHS: 1,575
BARCLAYS CAPITAL: 1,525
BMO Private Bank: 1,500
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES: 1,390

What do bogleheads think?

Personally, I couldn't care less.

[midareff]

Think about what?

[larryswedroe]

Whenever asked a question like this be the media, which happens all the time, my answer is always the same, my crystal ball is cloudy.
Forecasts like this are extremely foolish. A more intelligent forecast would be something along the lines of a forecast of 1500 which is the median of a wide dispersion of potential returns, or something like I'm 70% confident that the market will end the year between 1200 and 1600. That might be more believable (even if it had no more value). The problem is that when most people hear a forecast like that they think the person has no confidence in it and thus why should they listen. They want certainty.

Best wishes
Larry

[Peter Foley]

The BH contest for 2013 will open soon. I'll wait for that because we might know more about political issues and the public's reaction over the next 10 days.

[bdpb]

Bubbles The Chimp: 1531
Grape Ape: 1475
Curious George: 1476
King Kong: 1329

http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-famous-monkeys.php

[chaz]

I don't follow guesses.

[baw703916]

Did any of the experts get the number right last year?

[Noobvestor]

I tried Googling, but No results found for "Predictions From Market Experts for 2012".



Edit: found this gem - a few months back, I guess, Goldman predicted 1250 for the end of 2012 - whoops! http://seekingalpha.com/article/926141- ... or-2012-13

[sscritic]

GOLDMAN SACHS: 1,575
BARCLAYS CAPITAL: 1,525
BMO Private Bank: 1,500
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES: 1,390

What do bogleheads think?

I don't like using capital letters for the whole name. Given the number of capital letters I see, I prefer the name with the fewest capital letters.

My choice: BMO Private Bank (only three capital letters)

[baw703916]

I tried Googling, but No results found for "Predictions From Market Experts for 2012".



Edit: found this gem - a few months back, I guess, Goldman predicted 1250 for the end of 2012 - whoops! http://seekingalpha.com/article/926141- ... or-2012-13

There are some expert predictions on the Bogleheads 2012 Contest page. A few of them (Nomura, Oppenheimer, S&P) predicted 1400--closer than my prediction was. They also had Goldman's 1250 prediction.

[BBL]

Rest assured - social media was the answer. This guy will be residing on a Yacht in the French Riviera in no time with his patented 'Twitter predictor' for market swings.

Behold:

http://www.indystar.com/article/2013022 ... ket-swings

[jwa]

I predict something is going to happen. I just don't know what though. Best that I stay the course.

[linenfort]

Somewhere between Wells Fargo and Grape Ape.

[geekgyrl]

aren't predictions and those seeking them akin to a fool's quest?

anyhoo, I'm kind of surprised by WF's low balled prediction, but given the spread of guesses, I'll add to the predictions... the averages will be what the averages will be.