Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

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Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby kd2008 » Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:56 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/12 ... ml?hp&_r=0

2013 Year-end target for the S&P 500
GOLDMAN SACHS: 1,575
BARCLAYS CAPITAL: 1,525
BMO Private Bank: 1,500
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES: 1,390

What do bogleheads think?

Personally, I couldn't care less.
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby midareff » Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:01 pm

Think about what?
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby larryswedroe » Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:30 pm

Whenever asked a question like this be the media, which happens all the time, my answer is always the same, my crystal ball is cloudy.
Forecasts like this are extremely foolish. A more intelligent forecast would be something along the lines of a forecast of 1500 which is the median of a wide dispersion of potential returns, or something like I'm 70% confident that the market will end the year between 1200 and 1600. That might be more believable (even if it had no more value). The problem is that when most people hear a forecast like that they think the person has no confidence in it and thus why should they listen. They want certainty.

Best wishes
Larry
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby Peter Foley » Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:34 pm

The BH contest for 2013 will open soon. I'll wait for that because we might know more about political issues and the public's reaction over the next 10 days.
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby bdpb » Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:46 pm

Bubbles The Chimp: 1531
Grape Ape: 1475
Curious George: 1476
King Kong: 1329

http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-famous-monkeys.php
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby chaz » Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:09 pm

I don't follow guesses.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby baw703916 » Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:43 pm

Did any of the experts get the number right last year?
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby Noobvestor » Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:24 pm

I tried Googling, but No results found for "Predictions From Market Experts for 2012".

:(

Edit: found this gem - a few months back, I guess, Goldman predicted 1250 for the end of 2012 - whoops! http://seekingalpha.com/article/926141- ... or-2012-13
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby sscritic » Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:43 pm

kd2008 wrote:GOLDMAN SACHS: 1,575
BARCLAYS CAPITAL: 1,525
BMO Private Bank: 1,500
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES: 1,390

What do bogleheads think?

I don't like using capital letters for the whole name. Given the number of capital letters I see, I prefer the name with the fewest capital letters.

My choice: BMO Private Bank (only three capital letters)
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby baw703916 » Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:52 pm

Noobvestor wrote:I tried Googling, but No results found for "Predictions From Market Experts for 2012".

:(

Edit: found this gem - a few months back, I guess, Goldman predicted 1250 for the end of 2012 - whoops! http://seekingalpha.com/article/926141- ... or-2012-13


There are some expert predictions on the Bogleheads 2012 Contest page. A few of them (Nomura, Oppenheimer, S&P) predicted 1400--closer than my prediction was. They also had Goldman's 1250 prediction.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby BBL » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:48 am

Rest assured - social media was the answer. This guy will be residing on a Yacht in the French Riviera in no time with his patented 'Twitter predictor' for market swings.

Behold:

http://www.indystar.com/article/2013022 ... ket-swings
To win without risk is to triumph without glory. Pierre Corneille
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby jwa » Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:37 pm

I predict something is going to happen. I just don't know what though. Best that I stay the course.
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby linenfort » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:17 pm

Somewhere between Wells Fargo and Grape Ape.
The key is not so much what couch you choose, but that you stay on it. -- boglehead Random Musings. | Wolde ye bothe eate your cake, and haue your cake?(1546)
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Re: Predictions From Market Experts for 2013

Postby geekgyrl » Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:14 pm

aren't predictions and those seeking them akin to a fool's quest?

anyhoo, I'm kind of surprised by WF's low balled prediction, but given the spread of guesses, I'll add to the predictions... the averages will be what the averages will be. :mrgreen:
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