Nobody Can Time the Stock Market, Vol. 220

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Nobody Can Time the Stock Market, Vol. 220

Postby cosjef » Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:41 am

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Re: Nobody Can Time the Stock Market, Vol. 220

Postby chaz » Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:07 pm

Timing:

"Making money in 2012 seems almost as easy as Bernard Madoff made it look for years and years. But things didn't turn out so well if you followed the advice of some leading market prognosticators."
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
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Re: Nobody Can Time the Stock Market, Vol. 220

Postby sometimesinvestor » Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:11 pm

Of course you can time the market but you will probably be early and that might be very costly. Consider Greenspan's call in 1996 about irrational exuberance. You would have left alot of money on the table over the next 4 years if you had followed that advice.. Mr.Rodgers call may well be correct though early. It is even possible to be wrong by being late but that is an error few on this site would make.
I chose to be scared of the fiscal cliff starting in mid December and made a small reduction in my equity share..Was I right or wrong? At this point who knows and it might end up being a function of the date I increase my allocation to stocks. Still I sleep well since then and have been able to not listen to the talking heads.
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Re: Nobody Can Time the Stock Market, Vol. 220

Postby mars » Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:17 pm

My take away here is that even the most respected stock pickers get it wrong 50% of the time. Why pay anyone to pick stocks. They've got to do much better than average to pay for themselves. I know, I'm probably preaching to the choir.
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