Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Stil N D Nile (still happily traipsing along the infamous Egyptian river)
Long
OXY (Occidental Petroleum)
SVU (Supervalu Inc)
Short
AAPL (Apple)
WHR (Whirlpool)
Long
OXY (Occidental Petroleum)
SVU (Supervalu Inc)
Short
AAPL (Apple)
WHR (Whirlpool)
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Underdog Superman Fund
Our motto comes from Horace: "Many shall be restored that now are fallen, and many shall fall that are now in favor."
Long
APOL Apollo Group Inc.
COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc
Short
FB Facebook
LNKD LinkedIn Corp.
Our motto comes from Horace: "Many shall be restored that now are fallen, and many shall fall that are now in favor."
Long
APOL Apollo Group Inc.
COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc
Short
FB Facebook
LNKD LinkedIn Corp.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Long:
ESI
APAGF
Short:
SSYS
SMBL
ESI
APAGF
Short:
SSYS
SMBL
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Geriatric Rehabilitation Fund
Long BEN SAM
Short RUTH ROSE
Long BEN SAM
Short RUTH ROSE
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
- Raging Mage
- Posts: 118
- Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:37 pm
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
It's been a very long time since I posted at BH, but I couldn't resist jumping into the fray.
The Quicker-Picker-Maybe-Upper Fund
Long:
LUV (SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO)
ERII (ENERGY RECOVERY INC)
Short:
AA (ALCOA INC)
CTXS (CITRIX SYSTEMS INC)
These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.
The Quicker-Picker-Maybe-Upper Fund
Long:
LUV (SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO)
ERII (ENERGY RECOVERY INC)
Short:
AA (ALCOA INC)
CTXS (CITRIX SYSTEMS INC)
These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.
Last edited by Raging Mage on Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Here are three easy ways to beat the market: Deception, irrelevance and bad math." - Alexander Green, Investment U
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
My team of skilled dart-throwing chimps says "It's on like Donkey Kong!"Raging Mage wrote: These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Fund Mobius Holdings Inc
Long
KO
KMB
Short
AAPL
CSCO
Long
KO
KMB
Short
AAPL
CSCO
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
You forgot to give your hedge fund a name.dad2000 wrote:Long:
ESI
APAGF
Short:
SSYS
SMBL
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
The Full Spectrum Fund
Long: FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR)
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)
Short: Red Hat, Inc. (RHT)
JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU)
Long: FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR)
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)
Short: Red Hat, Inc. (RHT)
JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU)
Last edited by baw703916 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:06 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
My CLF pick is going the wrong way badly.
- Raging Mage
- Posts: 118
- Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:37 pm
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Heh. Chimps versus computers? Sounds like fun. Or perhaps we're really on the same side if we made blind picks instead of trying to out-guess the market. =)dmcmahon wrote:My team of skilled dart-throwing chimps says "It's on like Donkey Kong!"Raging Mage wrote: These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.
"Here are three easy ways to beat the market: Deception, irrelevance and bad math." - Alexander Green, Investment U
-
- Posts: 17
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 7:46 pm
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
AllBusiness Fund
Long Positions:
AMZN -- Amazon.com Inc
FB - Facebook.com Inc
Short Positions:
GRPN -- Groupon.com Inc
BBY -- Best Buy Inc
Long Positions:
AMZN -- Amazon.com Inc
FB - Facebook.com Inc
Short Positions:
GRPN -- Groupon.com Inc
BBY -- Best Buy Inc
-
- Posts: 9277
- Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:47 am
Re: An educational exercise.
That is interesting..isn't 7/33 better than the percentage of mutual funds that beat the market?. But am I right in assuming the "players" were locked in to two long and two short positions, and they were not allowed to trade all year? Not that people would do better if they had more flexibility, but they might, and it would be interesting to see.....Taylor Larimore wrote:It is also an educational exercise:Snowjob wrote:Are we going to do another one again next year? This is always a fun exercise
Vanguard's Total Market Index Fund Admiral (VTSAX) currently has a Year-to-Date return of 15.70%. Only 7 hedge funds in the contest did better; 26 hedge funds did worse.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Happy Holidays
Taylor
- zaboomafoozarg
- Posts: 2431
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm
Re: An educational exercise.
They're allowed to lock in their gains/losses at any point, right?protagonist wrote:That is interesting..isn't 7/33 better than the percentage of mutual funds that beat the market?. But am I right in assuming the "players" were locked in to two long and two short positions, and they were not allowed to trade all year? Not that people would do better if they had more flexibility, but they might, and it would be interesting to see.....
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
STCM Fund
Longs
CBEY CBeyond Inc.
TNAV Telenav Inc.
Shorts
CPRT Corcept Therpeutic Inc.
CERE Cerus Inc.
Longs
CBEY CBeyond Inc.
TNAV Telenav Inc.
Shorts
CPRT Corcept Therpeutic Inc.
CERE Cerus Inc.
-
- Posts: 9277
- Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:47 am
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
If this and the "guess the year-end index" contests were held by WSJ, Fox News or Money Magazine, the winner surely would have nightly major national media appearances for at least the coming year, and probably have billions of dollars in assets flowing his/her way from those wanting to jump on the bandwagon.
It's too bad the winner chose a forum so unappreciative of his/her talents. ( )
OK:
Infidelity Contrabandista Fund.
SHORT:
TGT
PHM
LONG:
MA
RSH
I have no idea what these companies do, or even their names. But they are the opposite picks of last year's winner.
It's too bad the winner chose a forum so unappreciative of his/her talents. ( )
OK:
Infidelity Contrabandista Fund.
SHORT:
TGT
PHM
LONG:
MA
RSH
I have no idea what these companies do, or even their names. But they are the opposite picks of last year's winner.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
You mean you didn't see me all day yesterday on cnbc? I was getting the word out about my monthly financial newsletter.protagonist wrote:If this and the "guess the year-end index" contests were held by WSJ, Fox News or Money Magazine, the winner surely would have nightly major national media appearances for at least the coming year, and probably have billions of dollars in assets flowing his/her way from those wanting to jump on the bandwagon.
It's too bad the winner chose a forum so unappreciative of his/her talents. ( )
OK:
Infidelity Contrabandista Fund.
SHORT:
TGT
PHM
LONG:
MA
RSH
I have no idea what these companies do, or even their names. But they are the opposite picks of last year's winner.
By the way your longs are Mastercard and Radioshack. Shorts are Target and Pulte.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Name: The Walking Hedge
Those characters who can hopefully make it to next season
Long: DRL, GLNG
Those characters who you thought were dead (but may yet come back to bite you) or should want a quick exit (now... please!)
Short: MRLN, TDG
Those characters who can hopefully make it to next season
Long: DRL, GLNG
Those characters who you thought were dead (but may yet come back to bite you) or should want a quick exit (now... please!)
Short: MRLN, TDG
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 |
lang may yer lum reek
-
- Posts: 9277
- Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:47 am
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
(smiling....)camper wrote: By the way your longs are Mastercard and Radioshack. Shorts are Target and Pulte.
By the way, will you let us in on the secret to your success? How did you pick them? I need a new system. By investing in low-cost index funds all these years I can't even beat the market.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
I chose one of the best performing from 2011 which was Mastercard as a reversion to the mean pick.protagonist wrote:(smiling....)camper wrote: By the way your longs are Mastercard and Radioshack. Shorts are Target and Pulte.
By the way, will you let us in on the secret to your success? How did you pick them? I need a new system. By investing in low-cost index funds all these years I can't even beat the market.
I had a feeling home builders would do well so I picked Pulte.
I drive by a Radioshack everyday on my way to work and there is never anyone shopping there.
I chose Target just because I like to shop there.
The Pulte and Radioshack picks is what won it. The others weren't that great.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
My Labs Are Better Stock Pickers
Long #1 XLS - Exelis Inc
Long #2 CTGX - Computer Task Group Inc
Short #1 BLT - Blount International
Short #2 CATY - Cathay General Bancorp
Long #1 XLS - Exelis Inc
Long #2 CTGX - Computer Task Group Inc
Short #1 BLT - Blount International
Short #2 CATY - Cathay General Bancorp
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Free Lunch Fund, now in its 4th year --
Long, BAC, AIG
Short, ZNGA, GRPN
Long, BAC, AIG
Short, ZNGA, GRPN
-
- Posts: 378
- Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2012 11:27 am
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
HedgeTrimmer Equity Fund
Where Fees Come First
Long
AAPL (Apple)
BAC (Bank of America)
Short
FB (FaceBook)
ZNGA (Zynga)
Where Fees Come First
Long
AAPL (Apple)
BAC (Bank of America)
Short
FB (FaceBook)
ZNGA (Zynga)
Tomorrow never knows.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
LOP Strategic Inverse Fund
Note: LOP - Leverage Other People,. Selections based on shorting previous game participants highest performers and going long on the losers....uh, except for that one ticker that went to 0......
Short
PHM
BAC
Long:
RSH
NKE
Note: LOP - Leverage Other People,. Selections based on shorting previous game participants highest performers and going long on the losers....uh, except for that one ticker that went to 0......
Short
PHM
BAC
Long:
RSH
NKE
Robert |
50% Fixed Income/30% US Equity/20% Int'l Equity
- Norbert Schlenker
- Posts: 544
- Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:06 pm
- Location: The Dry Side of the Wet Coast
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
The posted portfolios have been recorded. I've done an initial run of the software, the result of which is here. Please verify your own portfolio and post a message if you see a problem.
There is one problem portfolio, grok87's. As far as I can tell SDRL is not in the Russell 3000.
New entries may be made, or existing entries modified, up until the market opens tomorrow morning.
I'll announce the winner of the 1% bonus for the best name, and adjust opening prices accordingly, sometime tomorrow.
There is one problem portfolio, grok87's. As far as I can tell SDRL is not in the Russell 3000.
New entries may be made, or existing entries modified, up until the market opens tomorrow morning.
I'll announce the winner of the 1% bonus for the best name, and adjust opening prices accordingly, sometime tomorrow.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Rannumgen Capital is back.
Longs:
BBBY (Bed, Bath, and Beyond)
TEX (Terex Corp)
Shorts:
RAIL (Freightcar America)
CTGX (Computer Task Group)
NightOwl
Longs:
BBBY (Bed, Bath, and Beyond)
TEX (Terex Corp)
Shorts:
RAIL (Freightcar America)
CTGX (Computer Task Group)
NightOwl
"Volatility provokes the constant dread that some investors know more than we do, making us fearful of ignoring such powerful price movements." |
Peter Bernstein, "The 60/40 Solution."
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Ok, I'll play!
Manbaby Mama Hedge Fund
Long: Disney (DIS)
Target Corp (TGT)
Short: Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
United Continental Holdings (UAL)
gail
Manbaby Mama Hedge Fund
Long: Disney (DIS)
Target Corp (TGT)
Short: Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
United Continental Holdings (UAL)
gail
-
- Posts: 3968
- Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:17 am
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
The Long On Excuses Short On Results Fund.
LONG: DVN, CME
SHORT: DLPH, F
LONG: DVN, CME
SHORT: DLPH, F
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
The Betting It All On PE Fund
Leave sorting valuations columns to the pros!
Long:
IDCC (InterDigital)
RGA (Reinsurance Group of America)
Short:
QLIK (Qlik Technologies)
SFLY (Shutterfly)
Leave sorting valuations columns to the pros!
Long:
IDCC (InterDigital)
RGA (Reinsurance Group of America)
Short:
QLIK (Qlik Technologies)
SFLY (Shutterfly)
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
4 Iron Capital LLC
Long: UPL, GKK
Short: AMZN, SODA
Long: UPL, GKK
Short: AMZN, SODA
-
- Posts: 1025
- Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:41 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
No Idea What I'm Doing
Long
BAC
LNG
Short
HLF
JCP
Long
BAC
LNG
Short
HLF
JCP
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Contrary to Reason
Long: Education Management Corp (EDMC)
Long: Apco Oil & Gas Intl Inc (APAGF)
Short: BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI)
Short: Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA)
Long: Education Management Corp (EDMC)
Long: Apco Oil & Gas Intl Inc (APAGF)
Short: BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI)
Short: Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA)
Retirement investing is a marathon.
- Norbert Schlenker
- Posts: 544
- Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:06 pm
- Location: The Dry Side of the Wet Coast
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
I'm taking all portfolios up through Fred's NIWID Fund. kenyan's fund was posted 40 minutes after the market opened, and with APAGF up 20% from the Dec 31 close as I write, IMHO it's an unacceptable leg up on the field.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Fair enough. I just picked names off a list I read of the Russell 3000's best and worst performers from 2012; I didn't check any return for today. I also read the rules from 2012 posted early in the thread, which stated the cutoff as 9 am on January 3. Obviously, that doesn't make complete sense for 2013. Best of luck.Norbert Schlenker wrote:I'm taking all portfolios up through Fred's NIWID Fund. kenyan's fund was posted 40 minutes after the market opened, and with APAGF up 20% from the Dec 31 close as I write, IMHO it's an unacceptable leg up on the field.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
- Norbert Schlenker
- Posts: 544
- Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:06 pm
- Location: The Dry Side of the Wet Coast
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
kenyan, I didn't mean to post anything that sounded like an accusation of impropriety and I apologize if you took it that way. It just wouldn't be fair to the other participants in my opinion.
49 entries plus the (inappropriate but dead easy) benchmark this year. That's up 50% from last year, so there's clearly a bull market in this subject among Bogleheads.
Best name is deemed to be madpunster's Reversion to the Meme, which gets a 1% advantage on all opening prices.
The first performance table will be available around 6 pm EST today at http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html.
Good luck, all.
49 entries plus the (inappropriate but dead easy) benchmark this year. That's up 50% from last year, so there's clearly a bull market in this subject among Bogleheads.
Best name is deemed to be madpunster's Reversion to the Meme, which gets a 1% advantage on all opening prices.
The first performance table will be available around 6 pm EST today at http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html.
Good luck, all.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
No worries, I was not intending to sound upset, because I am not.Norbert Schlenker wrote:kenyan, I didn't mean to post anything that sounded like an accusation of impropriety and I apologize if you took it that way. It just wouldn't be fair to the other participants in my opinion.
49 entries plus the (inappropriate but dead easy) benchmark this year. That's up 50% from last year, so there's clearly a bull market in this subject among Bogleheads.
Best name is deemed to be madpunster's Reversion to the Meme, which gets a 1% advantage on all opening prices.
The first performance table will be available around 6 pm EST today at http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html.
Good luck, all.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Thanks for the opportunity to get this type of gambling out of my system without risking my ability to retire.
The 2 and 20 Fee Fi Fo Fund
Long TOL, QCOM
Short HD, AAPL
The 2 and 20 Fee Fi Fo Fund
Long TOL, QCOM
Short HD, AAPL
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Hey Norbert, do you have the historical results from the last 3 years? would be interesting to see how our portfolios have done over time =)
- Norbert Schlenker
- Posts: 544
- Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:06 pm
- Location: The Dry Side of the Wet Coast
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
The annual results are (and will stay) online for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.
I suspect that's not your intention in asking though. You probably want those tables updated with closing prices as of today. I can do that pretty easily but there will be some significant holes because of the cumulative effects of takeovers and delistings.
@mptness: Your entry is too late. Next year ...
I suspect that's not your intention in asking though. You probably want those tables updated with closing prices as of today. I can do that pretty easily but there will be some significant holes because of the cumulative effects of takeovers and delistings.
@mptness: Your entry is too late. Next year ...
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Mudpuppy wrote:You forgot to give your hedge fund a name.dad2000 wrote:Long:
ESI
APAGF
Short:
SSYS
SMBL
Sorry. We'll call it "The Fund without a Name"
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
oops, sorry.Norbert Schlenker wrote:The posted portfolios have been recorded. I've done an initial run of the software, the result of which is here. Please verify your own portfolio and post a message if you see a problem.
There is one problem portfolio, grok87's. As far as I can tell SDRL is not in the Russell 3000.
New entries may be made, or existing entries modified, up until the market opens tomorrow morning.
I'll announce the winner of the 1% bonus for the best name, and adjust opening prices accordingly, sometime tomorrow.
please replace SDRL with Exelon (EXC).
thanks
RIP Mr. Bogle.
-
- Posts: 9277
- Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:47 am
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
I haven't followed stocks or bought a copy of the WSJ since I switched to indexing in '99.
Now I will have to buy a WSJ subscription and a pile of financial software so that I can follow my portfolio. I will have no more time for my friends and family. My sax playing will surely suffer. Damn.
(btw, are those expenses tax-deductible if used exclusively to follow hypothetical portfolios?)
Now I will have to buy a WSJ subscription and a pile of financial software so that I can follow my portfolio. I will have no more time for my friends and family. My sax playing will surely suffer. Damn.
(btw, are those expenses tax-deductible if used exclusively to follow hypothetical portfolios?)
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Fund Name: Eat Your PEs
Long:
TJX Companies (TJX)
Take-Two (TTWO)
Short:
Best Buy (BBY)
Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS)
Long:
TJX Companies (TJX)
Take-Two (TTWO)
Short:
Best Buy (BBY)
Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS)
There are times when, at least for now, one must be content to love the questions themselves - Neil deGrasse Tyson
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
If only I
Long:
TDC
JPM
Short:
LO
AMZN
Long:
TDC
JPM
Short:
LO
AMZN
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Hang on, the contest is already running - no entries are accepted after the market opened on 2-Jan.
grok87 submitted before the deadline but has a problem with one position. It's up to Norbert Schlenker to decide if grok87 can participate or not.
grok87 submitted before the deadline but has a problem with one position. It's up to Norbert Schlenker to decide if grok87 can participate or not.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Nope, just putting together some literature to attract more capital =PNorbert Schlenker wrote:The annual results are (and will stay) online for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.
I suspect that's not your intention in asking though. You probably want those tables updated with closing prices as of today. I can do that pretty easily but there will be some significant holes because of the cumulative effects of takeovers and delistings.
...
Returns since Inception / Growth of 10,000 -
Snowjob Benchmark
10,000 10,000
2010 30% 12.80%
2011 -2.90% -0.20%
2012 38.50% 14%
17,483 12,833
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Am I Doing This Right?
Long: ACAS, BRE
Short: MD, TWTC
Long: ACAS, BRE
Short: MD, TWTC
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
49 entries plus the (inappropriate but dead easy) benchmark this year. That's up 50% from last year, so there's clearly a bull market in this subject among Bogleheads.
Hmmm...Methinks there are a few closet day traders among us.
Hmmm...Methinks there are a few closet day traders among us.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Looks like I can just follow wshang's portfolio anyhow, as he did the same thing I did. The only exception is that I dumped KITD for EDMC, as the former had become a penny stock and I didn't know if it was going to stay in the index.kenyan wrote:Fair enough. I just picked names off a list I read of the Russell 3000's best and worst performers from 2012; I didn't check any return for today. I also read the rules from 2012 posted early in the thread, which stated the cutoff as 9 am on January 3. Obviously, that doesn't make complete sense for 2013. Best of luck.Norbert Schlenker wrote:I'm taking all portfolios up through Fred's NIWID Fund. kenyan's fund was posted 40 minutes after the market opened, and with APAGF up 20% from the Dec 31 close as I write, IMHO it's an unacceptable leg up on the field.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Shorting Netflix was disastrous, lol. I went from first place last night to middle of the road. The Black Hole Capital Fund was crushing the market but now its sucking all the investors money. Black Hole Capital Fund will stay the course and continue shorting NFLX, ignoring this "bubble."
I'm busy Friday and won't be able to post but on 1/25/13 the Black Hole Capital Fund will end the short position on BKS taking whatever the market close will be(freezing it).
I'm busy Friday and won't be able to post but on 1/25/13 the Black Hole Capital Fund will end the short position on BKS taking whatever the market close will be(freezing it).