Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Mudpuppy » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:23 am

Stil N D Nile (still happily traipsing along the infamous Egyptian river)

Long
OXY (Occidental Petroleum)
SVU (Supervalu Inc)

Short
AAPL (Apple)
WHR (Whirlpool)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby docneil88 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:28 am

Underdog Superman Fund

Our motto comes from Horace: "Many shall be restored that now are fallen, and many shall fall that are now in favor."

Long
APOL Apollo Group Inc.
COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc

Short
FB Facebook
LNKD LinkedIn Corp.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby dad2000 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:17 am

Long:
ESI
APAGF

Short:
SSYS
SMBL
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby peppers » Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:43 pm

Geriatric Rehabilitation Fund

Long BEN SAM

Short RUTH ROSE
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Raging Mage » Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:20 pm

It's been a very long time since I posted at BH, but I couldn't resist jumping into the fray.

The Quicker-Picker-Maybe-Upper Fund

Long:
LUV (SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO)
ERII (ENERGY RECOVERY INC)

Short:
AA (ALCOA INC)
CTXS (CITRIX SYSTEMS INC)

These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.
Last edited by Raging Mage on Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby dmcmahon » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:26 pm

Raging Mage wrote:These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.


My team of skilled dart-throwing chimps says "It's on like Donkey Kong!"
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby jlegato » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:53 pm

Fund Mobius Holdings Inc
Long
KO
KMB

Short
AAPL
CSCO
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Mudpuppy » Mon Dec 31, 2012 6:18 pm

dad2000 wrote:Long:
ESI
APAGF

Short:
SSYS
SMBL

You forgot to give your hedge fund a name.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby baw703916 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:03 pm

The Full Spectrum Fund

Long: FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR)
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)

Short: Red Hat, Inc. (RHT)
JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby livesoft » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:04 pm

My CLF pick is going the wrong way badly.
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Raging Mage » Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:50 pm

dmcmahon wrote:
Raging Mage wrote:These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.


My team of skilled dart-throwing chimps says "It's on like Donkey Kong!"


Heh. Chimps versus computers? Sounds like fun. Or perhaps we're really on the same side if we made blind picks instead of trying to out-guess the market. =)
"Here are three easy ways to beat the market: Deception, irrelevance and bad math." - Alexander Green, Investment U
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby aLLbUSINESS » Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:27 pm

AllBusiness Fund

Long Positions:
AMZN -- Amazon.com Inc
FB - Facebook.com Inc

Short Positions:
GRPN -- Groupon.com Inc
BBY -- Best Buy Inc
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Re: An educational exercise.

Postby protagonist » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:52 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Snowjob wrote:Are we going to do another one again next year? This is always a fun exercise

It is also an educational exercise:

Vanguard's Total Market Index Fund Admiral (VTSAX) currently has a Year-to-Date return of 15.70%. Only 7 hedge funds in the contest did better; 26 hedge funds did worse.

Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

Happy Holidays
Taylor


That is interesting..isn't 7/33 better than the percentage of mutual funds that beat the market?. But am I right in assuming the "players" were locked in to two long and two short positions, and they were not allowed to trade all year? Not that people would do better if they had more flexibility, but they might, and it would be interesting to see.....
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Re: An educational exercise.

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:44 am

protagonist wrote:That is interesting..isn't 7/33 better than the percentage of mutual funds that beat the market?. But am I right in assuming the "players" were locked in to two long and two short positions, and they were not allowed to trade all year? Not that people would do better if they had more flexibility, but they might, and it would be interesting to see.....


They're allowed to lock in their gains/losses at any point, right?
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Park » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:18 am

STCM Fund

Longs

CBEY CBeyond Inc.
TNAV Telenav Inc.

Shorts

CPRT Corcept Therpeutic Inc.
CERE Cerus Inc.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby protagonist » Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:08 pm

If this and the "guess the year-end index" contests were held by WSJ, Fox News or Money Magazine, the winner surely would have nightly major national media appearances for at least the coming year, and probably have billions of dollars in assets flowing his/her way from those wanting to jump on the bandwagon.

It's too bad the winner chose a forum so unappreciative of his/her talents. ( :D )

OK:

Infidelity Contrabandista Fund.

SHORT:
TGT
PHM

LONG:
MA
RSH

I have no idea what these companies do, or even their names. But they are the opposite picks of last year's winner.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby camper » Tue Jan 01, 2013 12:35 pm

protagonist wrote:If this and the "guess the year-end index" contests were held by WSJ, Fox News or Money Magazine, the winner surely would have nightly major national media appearances for at least the coming year, and probably have billions of dollars in assets flowing his/her way from those wanting to jump on the bandwagon.

It's too bad the winner chose a forum so unappreciative of his/her talents. ( :D )

OK:

Infidelity Contrabandista Fund.

SHORT:
TGT
PHM

LONG:
MA
RSH

I have no idea what these companies do, or even their names. But they are the opposite picks of last year's winner.


You mean you didn't see me all day yesterday on cnbc? I was getting the word out about my monthly financial newsletter. 8-)

By the way your longs are Mastercard and Radioshack. Shorts are Target and Pulte.
"I emphasize three main principles: first, to not be too greedy; second, to diversify as widely as possible; and third, to always be wary of the investment industry." William J. Bernstein
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby k66 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:03 pm

Name: The Walking Hedge

Those characters who can hopefully make it to next season
Long: DRL, GLNG

Those characters who you thought were dead (but may yet come back to bite you) or should want a quick exit (now... please!)
Short: MRLN, TDG
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby protagonist » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:13 pm

camper wrote:By the way your longs are Mastercard and Radioshack. Shorts are Target and Pulte.


(smiling....)

By the way, will you let us in on the secret to your success? How did you pick them? I need a new system. By investing in low-cost index funds all these years I can't even beat the market.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby camper » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:27 pm

protagonist wrote:
camper wrote:By the way your longs are Mastercard and Radioshack. Shorts are Target and Pulte.


(smiling....)

By the way, will you let us in on the secret to your success? How did you pick them? I need a new system. By investing in low-cost index funds all these years I can't even beat the market.


I chose one of the best performing from 2011 which was Mastercard as a reversion to the mean pick.
I had a feeling home builders would do well so I picked Pulte.
I drive by a Radioshack everyday on my way to work and there is never anyone shopping there.
I chose Target just because I like to shop there.
The Pulte and Radioshack picks is what won it. The others weren't that great.
"I emphasize three main principles: first, to not be too greedy; second, to diversify as widely as possible; and third, to always be wary of the investment industry." William J. Bernstein
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby jaj2276 » Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:57 pm

My Labs Are Better Stock Pickers

Long #1 XLS - Exelis Inc
Long #2 CTGX - Computer Task Group Inc
Short #1 BLT - Blount International
Short #2 CATY - Cathay General Bancorp
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Snowjob » Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:25 pm

Free Lunch Fund, now in its 4th year --

Long, BAC, AIG
Short, ZNGA, GRPN
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Average Investor » Wed Jan 02, 2013 1:01 am

HedgeTrimmer Equity Fund
Where Fees Come First

Long
AAPL (Apple)
BAC (Bank of America)

Short
FB (FaceBook)
ZNGA (Zynga)
Tomorrow never knows.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby BobSail » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:09 am

LOP Strategic Inverse Fund

Note: LOP - Leverage Other People,. Selections based on shorting previous game participants highest performers and going long on the losers....uh, except for that one ticker that went to 0......

Short
PHM
BAC

Long:
RSH
NKE
Robert | 40 Fixed Income/40 US Equity/20 Int'l Equity
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Norbert Schlenker » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:48 am

The posted portfolios have been recorded. I've done an initial run of the software, the result of which is here. Please verify your own portfolio and post a message if you see a problem.

There is one problem portfolio, grok87's. As far as I can tell SDRL is not in the Russell 3000.

New entries may be made, or existing entries modified, up until the market opens tomorrow morning.

I'll announce the winner of the 1% bonus for the best name, and adjust opening prices accordingly, sometime tomorrow.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby NightOwl » Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:11 am

Rannumgen Capital is back.

Longs:
BBBY (Bed, Bath, and Beyond)
TEX (Terex Corp)

Shorts:
RAIL (Freightcar America)
CTGX (Computer Task Group)

NightOwl
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby gailcox » Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:26 am

Ok, I'll play!

Manbaby Mama Hedge Fund

Long: Disney (DIS)
Target Corp (TGT)

Short: Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
United Continental Holdings (UAL)

gail
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby SP-diceman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:10 am

The Long On Excuses Short On Results Fund.

LONG: DVN, CME

SHORT: DLPH, F
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby ftobin » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:53 am

The Betting It All On PE Fund
Leave sorting valuations columns to the pros!

Long:
IDCC (InterDigital)
RGA (Reinsurance Group of America)

Short:
QLIK (Qlik Technologies)
SFLY (Shutterfly)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby 4 Iron » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:20 am

4 Iron Capital LLC

Long: UPL, GKK
Short: AMZN, SODA
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby FredPeterson » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:33 am

No Idea What I'm Doing

Long
BAC
LNG

Short
HLF
JCP
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby kenyan » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:11 am

Contrary to Reason

Long: Education Management Corp (EDMC)
Long: Apco Oil & Gas Intl Inc (APAGF)

Short: BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI)
Short: Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA)
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Norbert Schlenker » Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:54 am

I'm taking all portfolios up through Fred's NIWID Fund. kenyan's fund was posted 40 minutes after the market opened, and with APAGF up 20% from the Dec 31 close as I write, IMHO it's an unacceptable leg up on the field.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby kenyan » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:14 pm

Norbert Schlenker wrote:I'm taking all portfolios up through Fred's NIWID Fund. kenyan's fund was posted 40 minutes after the market opened, and with APAGF up 20% from the Dec 31 close as I write, IMHO it's an unacceptable leg up on the field.


Fair enough. I just picked names off a list I read of the Russell 3000's best and worst performers from 2012; I didn't check any return for today. I also read the rules from 2012 posted early in the thread, which stated the cutoff as 9 am on January 3. Obviously, that doesn't make complete sense for 2013. Best of luck.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Norbert Schlenker » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:23 pm

kenyan, I didn't mean to post anything that sounded like an accusation of impropriety and I apologize if you took it that way. It just wouldn't be fair to the other participants in my opinion.

49 entries plus the (inappropriate but dead easy) benchmark this year. That's up 50% from last year, so there's clearly a bull market in this subject among Bogleheads. :shock:

Best name is deemed to be madpunster's Reversion to the Meme, which gets a 1% advantage on all opening prices.

The first performance table will be available around 6 pm EST today at http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html.

Good luck, all.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby kenyan » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:35 pm

Norbert Schlenker wrote:kenyan, I didn't mean to post anything that sounded like an accusation of impropriety and I apologize if you took it that way. It just wouldn't be fair to the other participants in my opinion.

49 entries plus the (inappropriate but dead easy) benchmark this year. That's up 50% from last year, so there's clearly a bull market in this subject among Bogleheads. :shock:

Best name is deemed to be madpunster's Reversion to the Meme, which gets a 1% advantage on all opening prices.

The first performance table will be available around 6 pm EST today at http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html.

Good luck, all.


No worries, I was not intending to sound upset, because I am not.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby mptness » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:49 pm

Thanks for the opportunity to get this type of gambling out of my system without risking my ability to retire.

The 2 and 20 Fee Fi Fo Fund
Long TOL, QCOM
Short HD, AAPL
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Snowjob » Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:35 pm

Hey Norbert, do you have the historical results from the last 3 years? would be interesting to see how our portfolios have done over time =)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Norbert Schlenker » Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:34 pm

The annual results are (and will stay) online for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.

I suspect that's not your intention in asking though. You probably want those tables updated with closing prices as of today. I can do that pretty easily but there will be some significant holes because of the cumulative effects of takeovers and delistings.

@mptness: Your entry is too late. Next year ...
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby dad2000 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:03 pm

Mudpuppy wrote:
dad2000 wrote:Long:
ESI
APAGF

Short:
SSYS
SMBL

You forgot to give your hedge fund a name.



Sorry. We'll call it "The Fund without a Name"
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 5:15 pm

Norbert Schlenker wrote:The posted portfolios have been recorded. I've done an initial run of the software, the result of which is here. Please verify your own portfolio and post a message if you see a problem.

There is one problem portfolio, grok87's. As far as I can tell SDRL is not in the Russell 3000.

New entries may be made, or existing entries modified, up until the market opens tomorrow morning.

I'll announce the winner of the 1% bonus for the best name, and adjust opening prices accordingly, sometime tomorrow.

oops, sorry.
please replace SDRL with Exelon (EXC).
thanks
grok, CFA | "You can only convince people who think they can benefit from being convinced."- Taleb
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby protagonist » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:50 pm

I haven't followed stocks or bought a copy of the WSJ since I switched to indexing in '99.

Now I will have to buy a WSJ subscription and a pile of financial software so that I can follow my portfolio. I will have no more time for my friends and family. My sax playing will surely suffer. Damn.

(btw, are those expenses tax-deductible if used exclusively to follow hypothetical portfolios?)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Tyr0ne » Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:49 pm

Fund Name: Eat Your PEs

Long:
TJX Companies (TJX)
Take-Two (TTWO)

Short:
Best Buy (BBY)
Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS)
There are times when, at least for now, one must be content to love the questions themselves - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby STC » Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:53 pm

If only I

Long:
TDC
JPM

Short:
LO
AMZN
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:02 pm

Hang on, the contest is already running - no entries are accepted after the market opened on 2-Jan.

grok87 submitted before the deadline but has a problem with one position. It's up to Norbert Schlenker to decide if grok87 can participate or not.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Snowjob » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:32 pm

Norbert Schlenker wrote:The annual results are (and will stay) online for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012.

I suspect that's not your intention in asking though. You probably want those tables updated with closing prices as of today. I can do that pretty easily but there will be some significant holes because of the cumulative effects of takeovers and delistings.

...


Nope, just putting together some literature to attract more capital =P


Returns since Inception / Growth of 10,000 -

Snowjob Benchmark
10,000 10,000
2010 30% 12.80%
2011 -2.90% -0.20%
2012 38.50% 14%
17,483 12,833
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby jhd » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:31 pm

Am I Doing This Right?

Long: ACAS, BRE
Short: MD, TWTC
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby peppers » Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:38 pm

49 entries plus the (inappropriate but dead easy) benchmark this year. That's up 50% from last year, so there's clearly a bull market in this subject among Bogleheads. :shock:


Hmmm...Methinks there are a few closet day traders among us. :wink:
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby kenyan » Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:07 am

kenyan wrote:
Norbert Schlenker wrote:I'm taking all portfolios up through Fred's NIWID Fund. kenyan's fund was posted 40 minutes after the market opened, and with APAGF up 20% from the Dec 31 close as I write, IMHO it's an unacceptable leg up on the field.


Fair enough. I just picked names off a list I read of the Russell 3000's best and worst performers from 2012; I didn't check any return for today. I also read the rules from 2012 posted early in the thread, which stated the cutoff as 9 am on January 3. Obviously, that doesn't make complete sense for 2013. Best of luck.


Looks like I can just follow wshang's portfolio anyhow, as he did the same thing I did. The only exception is that I dumped KITD for EDMC, as the former had become a penny stock and I didn't know if it was going to stay in the index.
Retirement investing is a marathon.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Dovahkiin » Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:56 pm

Shorting Netflix was disastrous, lol. :D I went from first place last night to middle of the road. The Black Hole Capital Fund was crushing the market but now its sucking all the investors money. Black Hole Capital Fund will stay the course and continue shorting NFLX, ignoring this "bubble."

I'm busy Friday and won't be able to post but on 1/25/13 the Black Hole Capital Fund will end the short position on BKS taking whatever the market close will be(freezing it).
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