Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:19 pm

The Hedge Hog Fund (gotherelate) short position of CBOU was liquidated at $16.00 / share, trading ceased on 24-Jan-13. Caribou Coffee Company, Inc. : JAB Beech Inc. Completes Acquisition Of Caribou Coffee Company, Inc.

Dovahkiin wrote:Shorting Netflix was disastrous, lol. :D I went from first place last night to middle of the road. The Black Hole Capital Fund was crushing the market but now its sucking all the investors money. Black Hole Capital Fund will stay the course and continue shorting NFLX, ignoring this "bubble."

I'm right behind you, shorting Krispy Kreme Doughnuts. The Superior Pericenter Arbitrage Managment team will also stay the course while looking for something to wash down those doughnuts. Movies and junk food...
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:25 pm

LadyGeek wrote:The Hedge Hog Fund (gotherelate) short position of CBOU was liquidated at $16.00 / share, trading ceased on 24-Jan-13. Caribou Coffee Company, Inc. : JAB Beech Inc. Completes Acquisition Of Caribou Coffee Company, Inc.

Dovahkiin wrote:Shorting Netflix was disastrous, lol. :D I went from first place last night to middle of the road. The Black Hole Capital Fund was crushing the market but now its sucking all the investors money. Black Hole Capital Fund will stay the course and continue shorting NFLX, ignoring this "bubble."

I'm right behind you, shorting Krispy Kreme Doughnuts. The Superior Pericenter Arbitrage Managment team will also stay the course while looking for something to wash down those doughnuts. Movies and junk food...

Speaking of Krispy Kreme, did you see this story?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/2 ... 06217.html
How can one short a company with that kind of customer service!
;-)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby BobSail » Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:57 am

Go RadioShack (RSH)!

Just a nit - Why do the starting entries for RSH in the contest page show slightly different starting prices: $2.10 and $2.12 for different entrants? This could end up being the determinant for a career in my new hedge fund..........
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby kenyan » Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:08 pm

BobSail wrote:Go RadioShack (RSH)!

Just a nit - Why do the starting entries for RSH in the contest page show slightly different starting prices: $2.10 and $2.12 for different entrants? This could end up being the determinant for a career in my new hedge fund..........


"Reversion to the Meme" was given a 1% bonus in starting prices due to his winning the Name contest.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby BobSail » Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:41 am

Thanks for the clarification kenyan.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:34 pm

The First Quarter results are in... I've got a firm hold on 4th from the bottom. Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest

Someone please remind me to never short junk food - KKD (Krispy Kreme Doughnuts).
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby STC » Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:43 pm

Wondering why I am not on the list...
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Mudpuppy » Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:56 pm

Stil N D Nile follows in the footsteps of his brother Hap E in keeping strong first quarter results....

Riding on a wave of gut-guided choices, the D Nile brothers gleefully cheer on the continual slide of Apple stock and blissfully ignore how Occidental has let them down once again.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:31 pm

Dang it, my shorts are doing WAY better than my longs :(

Image

Thankfully I am long on all of these in real life :)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:25 pm

LadyGeek wrote:The First Quarter results are in... I've got a firm hold on 4th from the bottom. Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest

Someone please remind me to never short junk food - KKD (Krispy Kreme Doughnuts).

http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
LadyGeek,
Hmm...it looks like your hold on 4th from the bottom has slipped and you are now in last place by a reasonably wide margin- down 62%!
:)

This reminds me of an interesting piece of hedge fund conventional wisdom. I once read that if a hedge fund loses 50% (or more) it is basically done- i.e. will fold up shop and close. Investors figure if you can lose half, you can lose it all.
This conventional wisdom is referred to here for example
http://www.davemanuel.com/2008/12/04/ci ... -november/

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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:29 pm

Tis but a scratch. I'll wait for the 2nd quarter results. :D

(I'm ignoring this as market noise: Krispy Kreme Skyrockets)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby dmcmahon » Mon Jun 03, 2013 11:07 pm

zaboomafoozarg wrote:Dang it, my shorts are doing WAY better than my longs :(

Image

Thankfully I am long on all of these in real life :)


That HPQ short is a widow maker. Despite that (and losing 25% of my investor's money) I seem to have moved up from dead last.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby protagonist » Mon Jun 03, 2013 11:40 pm

Not bad. Beating the Dow, S+P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 by shorting last year's winner's longs and going long on last year's winner's shorts. That's better than my FFNOX is doing in real life, and I don't even know what stocks I am betting on!
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Mudpuppy » Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:42 am

Stil N D Nile is stil in d lead, but New Deal Hedgefund (BHCadet) is breathing down the D Nile brothers' necks. Who knew Best Buy would turn it around so dramatically? Well, who other than BHCadet.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby BHCadet » Wed Jun 05, 2013 2:01 am

Mudpuppy wrote:Stil N D Nile is stil in d lead, but New Deal Hedgefund (BHCadet) is breathing down the D Nile brothers' necks. Who knew Best Buy would turn it around so dramatically? Well, who other than BHCadet.

Now sitting in second, I’ve no idea what I was betting on.
I was simply picked the two top winners from last year as losers and the two bottom losers as winners. :beer
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:23 pm

LadyGeek wrote:Tis but a scratch. I'll wait for the 2nd quarter results. :D

(I'm ignoring this as market noise: Krispy Kreme Skyrockets)

Well said!
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby protagonist » Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:47 am

BHCadet wrote:
Mudpuppy wrote:Stil N D Nile is stil in d lead, but New Deal Hedgefund (BHCadet) is breathing down the D Nile brothers' necks. Who knew Best Buy would turn it around so dramatically? Well, who other than BHCadet.

Now sitting in second, I’ve no idea what I was betting on.
I was simply picked the two top winners from last year as losers and the two bottom losers as winners. :beer


Wait....that's what I did!! How come you are beating me?? (jealous....)

(More than likely I screwed up. Oh well. What's a few billion dollars of shareholder's assets anyway, so long as I collect my fee?)

oh wait...I get it. You bottom-fed. I just took the winner's picks and turned them around, shorting the longs and vice versa. I like your strategy better....you deserve to win.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:45 pm

By the way, in case you missed it, the Vanguard Market Neutral fund (VMNFX) is having a good year. It is up 5% for the year
beating both its benchmark and competitors.
http://www.morningstar.com/invest/funds ... l-inv.html

personally i'd rather see that as the contest benchmark rather than Vanguard Total Stock market (VTSMX)

probably because I am beating VMNFX but not VTSMX!
:)


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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Mudpuppy » Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:56 pm

grok87 wrote:personally i'd rather see that as the contest benchmark rather than Vanguard Total Stock market (VTSMX)

probably because I am beating VMNFX but not VTSMX!
:)


cheers,

Ah, but it's not about winning. It's about having fun and showing just how often the law of averages has random stock selections end up under the index.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Sat Jun 15, 2013 10:33 pm

Mudpuppy wrote:
grok87 wrote:personally i'd rather see that as the contest benchmark rather than Vanguard Total Stock market (VTSMX)

probably because I am beating VMNFX but not VTSMX!
:)


cheers,

Ah, but it's not about winning. It's about having fun and showing just how often the law of averages has random stock selections end up under the index.

agree. but remember we're picking two long and two short. So really tbills should be the benchmark which is what the vanguard market neutral fund uses as its benchmark
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:30 am

Mudpuppy wrote:Ah, but it's not about winning. It's about having fun and showing just how often the law of averages has random stock selections end up under the index.

Or, about having buyer's remorse for an entire year. If I had only swapped my long and short positions...

Hang on, my long pick just tanked: Exide Technologies (XIDE) (filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 10) :shock:

I'm trailblazing at the bottom of the heap right now, last position is firmly entrenched.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Sun Jun 16, 2013 5:19 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Mudpuppy wrote:Ah, but it's not about winning. It's about having fun and showing just how often the law of averages has random stock selections end up under the index.

Or, about having buyer's remorse for an entire year. If I had only swapped my long and short positions...

Hang on, my long pick just tanked: Exide Technologies (XIDE) (filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 10) :shock:

I'm trailblazing at the bottom of the heap right now, last position is firmly entrenched.

interestingly exide technologies was owned by the vanguard small cap value index (and ishares) but not RZV (Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value ETF). I own both the vanguard and guggenheim funds and RZV has been outperforming of late.

It raises an interesting question in the small cap value space. Does the S&P indexing approach (which involves a committee) have an edge in the small cap value space?- i.e. the committee can kick out companies that look like doomed bad bets no matter what the metrics say. I think it is generally thought that in the large cap space the S&P approach (i.e. the S&P 500) does not add value.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby baw703916 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:12 pm

From looking at the standings, it appears that AAPL (Apple), GOOG (Google), and UAL (United Airlines) have all gone bankrupt.

A scripting update may be needed. :)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:22 pm

It's time for the 2nd quarter results - the last trading day of the 2nd quarter was Friday.

Interesting, as AAPL only went bankrupt for mudpuppy, who just happens to be in first place. GOOG is only bankrupt for matjen (5th place).

However, I've got a solid hold on last place.

XIDE has changed it's ticker to XIDEQ, which is at 0.1270. It's not quite dead yet.

Update: I PM'd Norbert Schlenker about the discrepancies. Member rankings: Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby peppers » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:27 pm

Apparently SAM went bankrupt too.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby baw703916 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:29 pm

Thanks, LG!

Is UAL behaving strangely because of the merger with Continental, or was the stock transaction already completed before this year?

Other spurious bankruptcies I see:

CSCO (Cisco)
BAC (Bank of America)
GRPN (Groupon)
RAIL (FreightCar America)
NKE (Nike)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
TEX (Terex)
CTGX (Computer Task Group)
SGEN (Seattle Genetics)
DVN (Devon Energy)
TNAV (Telenav)

Ones that may be real:
KITD
GKK
OUTD
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby baw703916 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 10:23 pm

Looks like the final second quarter results are out--thanks to LadyGeek and Norbert for fixing the calculations.

Mudpuppy is in fact in first place, but doesn't have a lead quite as commanding as it had appeared.

Livesoft and I are both doing rather well. It's worth noting that our portfolios are both based on word plays with company names and symbols--so any skill is probably more applicable to Scrabble or crosswords than to active management. :happy

Raging Mage seems to have quite a good random number generator--its machine-picked portfolio is also beating the benchmark!
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Mudpuppy » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:28 pm

I missed the scripting-induced "bankruptcies". I would have liked to have seen Apple "bankrupt", even if only due to a scripting error.

And let's not forget SPAM, LadyGeek's hedge fund, in a commanding last place finish. :) It's not all about beating the benchmark.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby livesoft » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:36 pm

baw703916 wrote:Livesoft and I are both doing rather well. ....

I dunno. I think my fund may be the only one with 3 losers out of 4 stocks including I think the biggest loser at this time (except for Exide).
Last edited by livesoft on Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's all about short-term opportunistic rebalancing due to a short-term change in one's asset allocation, uh, I mean opportunistic rebalancing, uh I mean rebalancing, uh I mean market timing.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby protagonist » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:21 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Mudpuppy wrote:Ah, but it's not about winning. It's about having fun and showing just how often the law of averages has random stock selections end up under the index.

Or, about having buyer's remorse for an entire year. If I had only swapped my long and short positions...

Hang on, my long pick just tanked: Exide Technologies (XIDE) (filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 10) :shock:

I'm trailblazing at the bottom of the heap right now, last position is firmly entrenched.


Hopefully in real life you are in low-cost index funds....(chimerical smile)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby baw703916 » Sun Jun 30, 2013 4:56 pm

Mudpuppy wrote: It's not all about beating the benchmark.


You still collect the 2% even if you miss out on the 20% ;)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Tue Jul 02, 2013 10:25 pm

further on the topic of correcting glitches. DRL is not up 2200%. Its stock has recently done a reverse 20-1 split. So its up only like 11% or something like that.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Mudpuppy » Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:28 pm

grok87 wrote:further on the topic of correcting glitches. DRL is not up 2200%. Its stock has recently done a reverse 20-1 split. So its up only like 11% or something like that.

Also still seems to be some spurious "bankruptcies" happening. The script is having issues no doubt. Good thing this is all just a game.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Norbert Schlenker » Wed Jul 03, 2013 8:46 pm

Fixed.

Since this has happened twice in three days, in both cases caused by the quote source refusing connections around 6 pm Eastern, the script's execution schedule has been postponed for 20 minutes (so the update should be available around 18:20 each business day). With luck, that solves the problem.

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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:09 pm

Thanks, have a beer for me.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:50 pm

LadyGeek wrote:Thanks, have a beer for me.

Krispy Kreme had a very bad day. Congratulations!

Also as I was checking out your Krispy Kreme position, I noticed that I am now in 8th place! Who knew!
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:47 am

Thanks, I think. I love the way financial news is reported, as they always try to associate the company with a relevant title: Krispy Kreme Gets Dunked on Expansion Worries I see this on Nightly Business Report, as well.

Stats: Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby baw703916 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:51 am

LadyGeek wrote:Thanks, I think. I love the way financial news is reported, as they always try to associate the company with a relevant title: Krispy Kreme Gets Dunked on Expansion Worries I see this on Nightly Business Report, as well.

Stats: Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List


I've wondered whether many stock analysts are frustrated authors, hence the colorful metaphors. :)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:00 am

I'm surprised nobody bought TSLA. Then again, looking at the past makes it really easy to pick stocks :D
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:04 pm

It's time for the 3rd quarter results.

I'm 6th from the bottom. Junk food is doing just fine (KKD - Krispy Kreme Doughnuts).

The market is in 9th position, just behind grok87.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby madbrain » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:09 pm

I missed this contest before, somehow. Can I start a hedge fund mid year ?
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:38 pm

LadyGeek wrote:It's time for the 3rd quarter results.

I'm 6th from the bottom. Junk food is doing just fine (KKD - Krispy Kreme Doughnuts).

The market is in 9th position, just behind grok87.

Thanks.
Who says you can't beat the market! :-)
The other thing I like about my picks is that each of my 4 picks is now in the black, er green.

Rannumgen Capital also has this...
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:48 pm

In case anyone misses this, here's the top 10 as of 30-Sep (end of 3Q). See: Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List (updated daily after market close)

  1. New Deal Hedgefund (BHCadet) +68.7
  2. Stil N D Nile (Mudpuppy) +55.5
  3. The Quicker-Picker-Maybe-Upper Fund (Raging Mage) +38.5
  4. The Full Spectrum Fund (baw703916) +29.8
  5. Medical Inflation Protection Fund (dhc) +29.3
  6. Infidelity Contrabandista Fund (protagonist) +24.7
  7. LOP Strategic Inverse Fund (BobSail) +23.0
  8. Consternatio Partners (grok87) +21.6
  9. I Don't Know and I Don't Care (Benchmark) +19.6
  10. Rannumgen Capital (NightOwl) +19.2
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby kenyan » Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:47 am

Dang, I would be in 4th place if I hadn't been tardy with my picks. Next year!
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby Norbert Schlenker » Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:39 pm

There was quite a special failure of the quote script on the benchmark portfolio this evening. I could fix the results page but I think I'll leave it as is to make everyone feel fabulous for 24 hours.
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby BobSail » Wed Oct 30, 2013 10:25 pm

Alright - finally everyone beat the benchmark!
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:38 pm

I'm tied for 4th (not counting the "benchmark"!)
Yes! Yes! Yes!
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:49 pm

You made me look. I've got a lock on 2nd (from the bottom). If Best Buy didn't tank today (BBY), I'd be a lot closer. :)

- Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby grok87 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:02 pm

LadyGeek wrote:You made me look. I've got a lock on 2nd (from the bottom). If Best Buy didn't tank today (BBY), I'd be a lot closer. :)

- Bogleheads 2013 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List

Looks like you have successfully executed on your "Seeking Omega" strategy!
:)
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Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Postby LadyGeek » Fri Dec 27, 2013 4:50 pm

The Bogleheads 2014 Hedgefund Contest has been announced: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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