sscritic wrote:Probability 102 (second semester):
Throw 396 red darts at a dart board with a target. Throw 14 blue darts at the same board. What fraction of 396 will be closer than the closest of the 14?
Assume a 2 dimensional normal distribution with center at the target, zero correlation, and equal variances.
Hint: the square of the distance from the target is the sum of two normal squared, i.e., Chi-squared with 2 degrees of freedom.
Are bogleheads really better dart throwers than Wall Street experts?
P.S. I am too lazy and my next soap is about to start.
Rick Ferri wrote:Look out! December means one thing − predictions − lots of them, mostly bad. We’ll hear forecasts about interest rates, stock prices, commodities, gold, economic growth, and of course, a fresh batch of Doomsday predictions. You’ll hear the bad, the ugly and the worst in that order. There may be a few good predictions out there, but you won’t recognize them in all the noise.
Here's a blog on the lighter side about forecasting the future: Look Out! ‘Tis the Season for Predictions
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Many years ago I began a Boglehead Contest to forecast the S&P 500 Index one year in advance. It's purpose was to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast the stock market. This year (2012) we had 396 Bogleheads register in January with December 31 forecasts ranging from 600 to 12,579. The S&P is currenty 1418.
2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Note: Registration for the 2013 Boglehead Contest will be on this forum during the 1st ten days in January.
hazlitt777 wrote:My favorite line was, "There may be a few good predictions out there, but you won’t recognize them in all the noise."
Valuethinker wrote:I predict the US economy will surprise us on the upside.
The negotiations in Washington could throw that off.
CoastieLifer wrote: If I were to follow simple registration instruction back in January, I would currently be in the top three ... Lucky in a not so lucky sort of way.
EyeYield wrote:Here's a prediction that I know will come true. The media will replace "fiscal cliff" with another scary catch phrase, which of course will lead to even more predictions, but I can't predict what the phrase will be.
Noobvestor wrote:'the fiscal canyon'
Noobvestor wrote:...therefore I predict the phrase: 'the fiscal canyon' that we have to forge across before climbing back up the other side, but have to wallow in for a while for the sake of ratings...
Beagler wrote:Here is a list of 2012 predictions: http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/2012/12 ... index.html
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