To summarize, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Jack Bogle, and PIMCO's Bill Gross "all see tougher times for financial assets... None expects equity returns to rival the 6.6% real return demonstrated over much of the past century and immortalized in Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run. None expects bonds to produce returns much in excess of their current coupon, so a return of less than 2% on the Barclays Aggregate Index is probable. All three expect bonds to be significantly more volatile in the future and to be particularly vulnerable to government attempts to manage excess debt through inflation."
And the conclusions they draw? "BlackRock's Larry Fink says be 100% in equities. PIMCO's Bill Gross claims equities are dead. Vanguard's Jack Bogle preaches stay the course with a balanced portfolio."
According to David Freedman, author of Wrong: Why experts* keep failing us--and how to know when not to trust them,
Guess which expert I think exemplifies the kind Freedman likes?Bad advice tends to be simplistic. It tends to be definite, universal and certain. But, of course, that's the advice we love to hear. The best advice tends to be less certain — those researchers who say, 'I think maybe this is true in certain situations for some people.' We should avoid the kind of advice that tends to resonate the most — it's exciting, it's a breakthrough, it's going to solve your problems — and instead look at the advice that embraces complexity and uncertainty.