What about 2013?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

What about 2013?

Postby EternalOptimist » Sun Dec 09, 2012 6:14 pm

Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:
"When nothing goes right....go left"
User avatar
EternalOptimist
 
Posts: 823
Joined: 7 Nov 2012
Location: New York

Re: What about 2013?

Postby FinancialDave » Sun Dec 09, 2012 6:45 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:


Optimistic with regard to what -- better than this year or greater than 0?

I suspect it will be slightly less or about equal to this year, by the time all gyrations are done.

fd
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible! Remember - Past performance is great for buying a dishwasher, but not so great for picking stocks or actively managed mutual funds!
FinancialDave
 
Posts: 883
Joined: 26 May 2011

Re: What about 2013?

Postby Rob5TCP » Sun Dec 09, 2012 6:55 pm

I would be MORE than pleased to replicate 2012. As for a guess, who knows. I try not to guess or time. Not always successful.
User avatar
Rob5TCP
 
Posts: 1713
Joined: 5 Jun 2007
Location: New York, NY

Re: What about 2013?

Postby sscritic » Sun Dec 09, 2012 6:59 pm

Rob5TCP wrote:I would be MORE than pleased to replicate 2012.

Huh? It ain't over 'til it's over. Come back in 2013 and say that if you wish. What about replicating 2010 or 2011?
sscritic
 
Posts: 19529
Joined: 6 Sep 2007

Re: What about 2013?

Postby tludwig23 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 7:04 pm

Why not just wait for the 2013 Boglehead Contest? Then you'll know where everyone stands, and if nisi still believes that the S&P 500 will end up at 12,579!
"I do not regard a broker as a member of the human race." Honore de Balzac (1799-1850)
User avatar
tludwig23
 
Posts: 990
Joined: 30 Dec 2010
Location: Bellingham, WA, near the Salish Sea

Re: What about 2013?

Postby Jerilynn » Sun Dec 09, 2012 7:51 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:


None of the above.

For 2013, I'm realistic.
Cordially, Jeri . . . 100% all natural asset allocation. (no supernatural methods used)
User avatar
Jerilynn
 
Posts: 1940
Joined: 6 Sep 2011
Location: USA, Earth

Re: What about 2013?

Postby FrugalInvestor » Sun Dec 09, 2012 7:59 pm

The answer to your question is a definitive 'yes.'
"All generalizations are false, including this one." | -Mark Twain
User avatar
FrugalInvestor
 
Posts: 3201
Joined: 7 Nov 2008

Re: What about 2013?

Postby peppers » Sun Dec 09, 2012 8:16 pm

I am tendentiously ambivalent.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
peppers
 
Posts: 801
Joined: 25 Oct 2011

Re: What about 2013?

Postby EternalOptimist » Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:53 pm

tludwig23 wrote:Why not just wait for the 2013 Boglehead Contest? Then you'll know where everyone stands, and if nisi still believes that the S&P 500 will end up at 12,579!


Thanks, wasn't aware of this.
"When nothing goes right....go left"
User avatar
EternalOptimist
 
Posts: 823
Joined: 7 Nov 2012
Location: New York

Re: What about 2013?

Postby bertilak » Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:04 pm

At first I was feeling indecisive but now I'm not sure.

Actually, ya gotta believe or why be in the game at all?
No-one really listens to anyone else, and if you try it sometime you will see why. | -- Mignon McLaughlin
User avatar
bertilak
 
Posts: 2836
Joined: 2 Aug 2011
Location: East of the Pecos, West of the Mississippi

Re: What about 2013?

Postby mptfan » Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:07 pm

bertilak wrote:At first I was feeling indecisive but now I'm not sure.

:D :D Classic!
I eat risk for breakfast. :)
mptfan
 
Posts: 2964
Joined: 5 Mar 2007

Re: What about 2013?

Postby Toons » Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:08 pm

For what it is worth ,I received a 2013 Economic Forecast from Wells Fargo .
Predicting S&P 1525-1575, 2013 year end. :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
User avatar
Toons
 
Posts: 3605
Joined: 21 Nov 2008
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: What about 2013?

Postby Phineas J. Whoopee » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:17 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:

I'm optimistic that I will succeed at staying the course.

PJW
User avatar
Phineas J. Whoopee
 
Posts: 1996
Joined: 18 Dec 2011

Re: What about 2013?

Postby cheese_breath » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:26 pm

Absolutely no idea. I'll just stick to my AA, rebalancing as necessary, and trust it will work out for the best in the long run.
The surest way to know the future is when it's the past.
User avatar
cheese_breath
 
Posts: 2456
Joined: 14 Sep 2011

Re: What about 2013?

Postby EyeYield » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:59 pm

The Mayan calendar stops on Dec. 21st and many people (zombies) believe that the world will end that day and there will be no 2013.
What many people don't realize (and why the Mayan's are extinct) is that they never finished their calendar, because they failed to stay the course. :oops:

2013?? The best thing that can happen is that I'll make it to the end of the year. Other than that, well, I like the number 13, so maybe I'll gamble and buy some junk bonds. 8-)
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle
EyeYield
 
Posts: 255
Joined: 18 Sep 2012
Location: Extremistan

Re: What about 2013?

Postby tludwig23 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:27 pm

Toons wrote:For what it is worth ,I received a 2013 Economic Forecast from Wells Fargo .
Predicting S&P 1525-1575, 2013 year end. :happy


Probably worth about what you paid for it.
"I do not regard a broker as a member of the human race." Honore de Balzac (1799-1850)
User avatar
tludwig23
 
Posts: 990
Joined: 30 Dec 2010
Location: Bellingham, WA, near the Salish Sea

Re: What about 2013?

Postby The Wizard » Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:57 pm

We will have improving conditions and a mild bull market in 2013.
The S&P 500 will go up approximately 10% next year...
The Wizard
 
Posts: 5531
Joined: 23 Mar 2010
Location: Reading, MA

Re: What about 2013?

Postby chaz » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:35 pm

In 2013 I will continue to stay the course.
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
chaz
 
Posts: 12586
Joined: 27 Feb 2007

Bogleheads Contest to forecast the S&P 500 Index in 2013

Postby Taylor Larimore » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:44 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:


Eternal Optimist:

Bogleheads can show their opinion, and maybe win a Boglehead and Jack Bogle book, by entering our 2013 Boglehead Contest on this forum during the first 10 days in January. Our current leader is "goggles."

Bogleheads Contest

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
 
Posts: 19089
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Location: Miami FL

Re: What about 2013?

Postby ruralavalon » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:49 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:

Next year things will change, unless they stay the same.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
User avatar
ruralavalon
 
Posts: 4314
Joined: 2 Feb 2008
Location: Illinois

Re: What about 2013?

Postby midareff » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:54 am

In the Bogleish scope of staying the course what the market does next year is of little (or no) consequence to anything other than short term bean counting. Money needed next year should not be in the market to start with. :moneybag
User avatar
midareff
 
Posts: 1774
Joined: 29 Nov 2010
Location: Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Re: What about 2013?

Postby midareff » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:54 am

tludwig23 wrote:
Toons wrote:For what it is worth ,I received a 2013 Economic Forecast from Wells Fargo .
Predicting S&P 1525-1575, 2013 year end. :happy


Probably worth about what you paid for it.



Did they charge for it? :beer
User avatar
midareff
 
Posts: 1774
Joined: 29 Nov 2010
Location: Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Re: What about 2013?

Postby NYBoglehead » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:01 am

midareff wrote:
tludwig23 wrote:
Toons wrote:For what it is worth ,I received a 2013 Economic Forecast from Wells Fargo .
Predicting S&P 1525-1575, 2013 year end. :happy


Probably worth about what you paid for it.



Did they charge for it? :beer


I'll sign up for that 7.5% gain over today's value right now. Throw in another ~2%+ in dividends and it'll be a nice year.
NYBoglehead
 
Posts: 1578
Joined: 25 May 2012

Re: Bogleheads Contest to forecast the S&P 500 Index in 2013

Postby EternalOptimist » Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:50 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:


Eternal Optimist:

Bogleheads can show their opinion, and maybe win a Boglehead and Jack Bogle book, by entering our 2013 Boglehead Contest on this forum during the first 10 days in January. Our current leader is "goggles."

Bogleheads Contest

Best wishes.
Taylor


Good stuff...
"When nothing goes right....go left"
User avatar
EternalOptimist
 
Posts: 823
Joined: 7 Nov 2012
Location: New York

Re: What about 2013?

Postby Hub » Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:12 pm

For 2013, if it goes up I'll feel like I have more money. If it goes down I'll feel like I'm buying on sale. It's good to be an accumulator.
User avatar
Hub
 
Posts: 255
Joined: 13 Jul 2012

Re: What about 2013?

Postby STC » Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:20 pm

Hub wrote:For 2013, if it goes up I'll feel like I have more money. If it goes down I'll feel like I'm buying on sale. It's good to be an accumulator.


This. :sharebeer

By the way, if you have your near term liquidity needs taken care of... i.e. dont get greedy. Then this is a mindset that you can comfortably manage. Its when you have a liquidity crunch due to poor planning or an extreem event that this mentality becomes a very difficult thing to maintain.
STC
 
Posts: 415
Joined: 14 Nov 2012

Re: What about 2013?

Postby spanky123 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:29 pm

Most forecasts indicate that the return of the S&P500 will be lower than that of 2012. Some sectors, however, may perform slightly better, such as health care, consumer non-cyclical, utilities and real estate.
User avatar
spanky123
 
Posts: 64
Joined: 22 May 2011

Re: What about 2013?

Postby sschullo » Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:37 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimistic, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:


I am prepared for optimism, pessimism and sitting on the fence.
“It’s what you learn, after you know it all, that counts.” - John Wooden
sschullo
 
Posts: 1482
Joined: 1 Apr 2007
Location: Rancho Mirage, CA

Re: What about 2013?

Postby baw703916 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:41 pm

tludwig23 wrote:Why not just wait for the 2013 Boglehead Contest? Then you'll know where everyone stands, and if nisi still believes that the S&P 500 will end up at 12,579!


And if VictoriaF still thinks it will end up at 666.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
User avatar
baw703916
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: 1 Apr 2007
Location: Northern Virginia

Re: What about 2013?

Postby stratton » Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:41 pm

I think MSCI or FTSE Global is much more interesting stock measure. Especially since Vanguard is playing footsie with FTSE. :wink:

Paul
...and then Buffy staked Edward. The end.
User avatar
stratton
 
Posts: 10745
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Location: Puget Sound

Re: What about 2013?

Postby arcticpineapplecorp. » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:42 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:


Hope to not need this money until 2041 when I retire. What do I care what happens in 2013? When I get to 2041, will I remember (or care) how 2013 performed?
The goal of investing is not to beat the market, but rather to beat inflation.
User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
 
Posts: 274
Joined: 6 Mar 2012

Re: What about 2013?

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:59 pm

Dunno about 2013, but I'd be willing to bet that when I retire in 30 years it'll be up.
User avatar
zaboomafoozarg
 
Posts: 962
Joined: 12 Jun 2011

Re: What about 2013?

Postby leonidas » Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:02 pm

S&P 1340....plus or minus 200 points??
User avatar
leonidas
 
Posts: 252
Joined: 10 Jul 2011
Location: Mansfield Township, NJ

Re: What about 2013?

Postby Joe S. » Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:25 pm

EternalOptimist wrote:Generally speaking, with regards to S&P growth in 2013 are you optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence :?:


The best answer would be "I don't know." However if forced to give a number I might say I expect a total return of say 8% with a standard deviation of 15%. Do you consider that number optimist, pessimistic or sitting on the fence?
User avatar
Joe S.
 
Posts: 477
Joined: 5 May 2007

Boglehead Contest Registration

Postby Taylor Larimore » Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:54 pm

Bogleheads:

This is a reminder that Registration begins next week for our Boglehead Contest to forecast the S&P 500 Index.

Merry Christmas!
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
 
Posts: 19089
Joined: 27 Feb 2007
Location: Miami FL


Return to Investing - Theory, News & General

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: barnaclebob, Google [Bot], michaelsieg, MSNbot Media, TF Hutch, x76apple, Yahoo [Bot] and 67 guests