BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

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BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:07 pm

Bogleheads:

At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.

Congratulations to our current leaders and their forecasts made 11 months ago:

1 Peter Foley 1415.90
2 grok87 1417.00
3 Roverdog 1415.23
4 tomd37 1415.16
5 tarheal93 1414.14
5 Wabbit 1414.14
5 schellhase 1414.14
8 VennData 1414.14
9 goggles 1419.00
10 dade 1413.12

2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Registration for the 2013 Boglehead Contest will be on this forum during the first 10 days in January.

Best wishes
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby abuss368 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:05 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.

Congratulations to our current leaders and their forecasts made 11 months ago:

1 Peter Foley 1415.90
2 grok87 1417.00
3 Roverdog 1415.23
4 tomd37 1415.16
5 tarheal93 1414.14
5 Wabbit 1414.14
5 schellhase 1414.14
8 VennData 1414.14
9 goggles 1419.00
10 dade 1413.12

2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Registration for the 2013 Boglehead Contest will be on this forum during the first 10 days in January.

Best wishes
Taylor


I always "give it a shot" each year. For me personally, it is amazing how this contest always humbles me. Maybe I should start a hedge fund! :oops:
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + REITs
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby grok87 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:43 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.

Congratulations to our current leaders and their forecasts made 11 months ago:

1 Peter Foley 1415.90
2 grok87 1417.00
3 Roverdog 1415.23
4 tomd37 1415.16
5 tarheal93 1414.14
5 Wabbit 1414.14
5 schellhase 1414.14
8 VennData 1414.14
9 goggles 1419.00
10 dade 1413.12

2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Registration for the 2013 Boglehead Contest will be on this forum during the first 10 days in January.

Best wishes
Taylor

Hey I'm in second place in the Boglehead S&P 500 contest and 9th place in the Boglehead Hedge Fund contest...
http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
Maybe it's time to start my own newsletter! :happy
NOT!
cheers,
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby englishgirl » Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:26 am

Yeah, 311th place so far. I'm a genius! :P
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby BBL » Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:42 am

At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.



I think that percentage change is more like 12.6

To pick a nit as nisi would say....

:|
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby Taylor Larimore » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:15 am

BlackBeltLurker wrote:
At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.



I think that percentage change is more like 12.6

To pick a nit as nisi would say....

:|


BlackBeltLurker:

Thank you for the correction. I worked in the government. :)

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby BBL » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:23 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
BlackBeltLurker wrote:
At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.



I think that percentage change is more like 12.6

To pick a nit as nisi would say....

:|


BlackBeltLurker:

Thank you for the correction. I worked in the government. :)




Best wishes.
Taylor


I've had that same experience :happy And I am trying to stop doing math in public as it usually goes South in a hurry.... :oops:

Looks like I'm doing pretty poorly in the contest [298] but I won the 'first guy to post a prediction' contest - that must qualify for the boobie prize.
To win without risk is to triumph without glory. Pierre Corneille
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby grok87 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 1:14 am

S&P @ 1418 today. Looks like a dead heat between goggles and me...
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby zhiwiller » Sat Dec 08, 2012 2:13 am

Nisi's guess of 12579.10 is wonderfully optimistic. I'm rooting for him.

The first time I played was in the 2007 contest. The S&P was around 1442. I remember saying "maybe it will be a good year" and added 15% to get 1659.06. I've played 1659.06 every year since (on the years I've remembered to play). A stopped watch being right twice a day and all. Someday.
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby mptfan » Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:11 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.

Actually, that is a 12.61% gain.

Also, I think many people get confused and think that the percentage "gain" in the S&P 500 500 index represents the "total return" of the stocks in the index-- it does not. The total return of the stocks in the S&P 500 index year to date as of the end of November is 14.88%. As you can see, the total return of the stocks in the index is more than 2% higher than the increase in the index... that is because the total return includes the dividends paid, and the index does not.
I eat risk for breakfast. :)
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby YDNAL » Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:34 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.

A 187 point drop from today (1418.07) is in the cards, I can feel it. :)
Code: Select all
363 YDNAL 1231.12 186.95
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby letsgobobby » Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:54 am

No, it is a 219 point gain you are feeling... 1635, on the way.
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby HomerJ » Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:37 am

mptfan wrote: The total return of the stocks in the S&P 500 index year to date as of the end of November is 14.88%.


And yet... how many doom and gloom posts have we seen on these boards this past year?
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby peppers » Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:52 am

YDNAL wrote:
Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

At the end of November the S&P 500 Index is 1416.18 compared to 1257.60 at the beginning of the year--an 8.9% gain.

A 187 point drop from today (1418.07) is in the cards, I can feel it. :)
Code: Select all
363 YDNAL 1231.12 186.95


It is the holiday season and YDNAL is trying out for the part, Mr. Scrooge. Bah Humbug. :wink:
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby Sheepdog » Sat Dec 08, 2012 12:30 pm

It ain't over till it's over, said Yogi.
Anyway, I don't want to win. I was obviously pessimistic.
Jim
People should not say everything they think. They should think about everything they say.
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby YDNAL » Sat Dec 08, 2012 2:46 pm

YDNAL wrote:A 187 point drop from today (1418.07) is in the cards, I can feel it. :)
Code: Select all
363 YDNAL 1231.12 186.95

letsgobobby wrote:No, it is a 219 point gain you are feeling... 1635, on the way.

peppers wrote:It is the holiday season and YDNAL is trying out for the part, Mr. Scrooge. Bah Humbug. :wink:

letsgobobby: Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy!
  • Don't take smiley faces (or winkey faces) for granted, they mean something.
peppers:
  • A 187 point drop from 1418.07 means exactly what?.... 12.31.12. :D
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby gkaplan » Sat Dec 08, 2012 3:45 pm

I'm lurking in 369th place, so people here should be wary.
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- One month to go.

Postby peppers » Sat Dec 08, 2012 5:08 pm

YDNAL...Fair Enough...

Game On.............. :wink:
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