analysis paralysis

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Topic Author
kpete
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 7:19 pm

analysis paralysis

Post by kpete »

I took the plunge and registered after lurking for a looong time. I've spent the last 2 years cleaning up my portfolio, in no small measure due to this forum. Sycamore, White Oak Growth, etc - I bought high, rose to the sun, and like icarus, took the big hurt. Soon, I'll actually post my portfolio for some help.

So my question.... I'm about 8 years to retirement. I have tax advantaged space for bonds, but still have about 5% of my total portfolio in Vanguard intermediate term tax exempt in a taxable account. I want to sell C fund in TSP, and buy/exchange it for G and F. Then sell intermediate term tax exempt and replace it with TSM instead of the same amount of C fund. I know all the timing stuff, and of course would never do that. I keep thinking I should wait for a slight pull back before making what is really an even exchange of the above assets between taxable and advantaged space. I say this bc for the long term, it just seems like buying this amount of TSM now, would reduce my potential upside.

Does the timing of an even switch like the above really matter? If not, I'm not clear as to why it does not matter, so clarification would help me.

My thanks
dbr
Posts: 46181
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:50 am

Post by dbr »

Listen, listen very carefully . . . your eyes are growing heavy . . . heavy . . . your are under our power.

When you wake . . .you will exchange your funds according to your plan. You will forget you read this message.

Wake!
GammaPoint
Posts: 2661
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2009 10:25 am
Location: Washington

Post by GammaPoint »

If you had the same amount in cash that you have in your tax-exempt bonds, would you put it into TSM according to your plan or would you invest instead in the tax-exempt bonds hoping that you could make a better exchange later?
YDNAL
Posts: 13774
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:04 pm
Location: Biscayne Bay

Re: analysis paralysis

Post by YDNAL »

kpete wrote:So my question.... I'm about 8 years to retirement. I have tax advantaged space for bonds, but still have about 5% of my total portfolio in Vanguard intermediate term tax exempt in a taxable account. I want to sell C fund in TSP, and buy/exchange it for G and F. Then sell intermediate term tax exempt and replace it with TSM instead of the same amount of C fund. I know all the timing stuff, and of course would never do that. I keep thinking I should wait for a slight pull back before making what is really an even exchange of the above assets between taxable and advantaged space. I say this bc for the long term, it just seems like buying this amount of TSM now, would reduce my potential upside.
Pete, are you awake now? Welcome!

You own C Fund.

Unless 20% in Mid/Small caps fully blow-up while 80% S&P 500 takes-off, what "pull back" in TSM is going to be significantly beneficial that doesn't hurt the C Fund? Is that even something to remotely consider? Can anyone project such event? Look, do the exchange and move on with your savings program according to your asset allocation.
Landy | Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
Topic Author
kpete
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 7:19 pm

Post by kpete »

yes, I'm awake now...

sensei - now I understand. I get it.. Now I'm almost embarased NOT to go ahead and do this. This must be one of those mental things that Zweig wrote about - and here I thought that applied to the other guy.

Thanks for kick in the @#$
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