Is anything on sale now?

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JonnyDVM
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Is anything on sale now?

Post by JonnyDVM »

So we're pretty well balanced to target allocations but have more to invest. Is anything undervalued right now relative to everything else? We already have some of these in our portfolio so just trying to decide what to buy more of at the moment.

Micro cap
Small cap
REIT
US total market
Total international
Emerging markets
International small cap
Intermediate term bond fund

This Is for a tax advantaged account. Thanks.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
lack_ey
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by lack_ey »

This kind of thinking is probably dangerous, but in general, the international equities.

Actually, Research Affiliates probably has some ideas about this...
http://www.researchaffiliates.com/Asset ... ities.aspx

Check by-country P/Es there to see if you want to take a roll on total international or emerging markets specifically. You might be able to drudge up numbers for the international small caps elsewhere.
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by JonnyDVM »

lack_ey wrote:This kind of thinking is probably dangerous, but in general, the international equities.

Actually, Research Affiliates probably has some ideas about this...
http://www.researchaffiliates.com/Asset ... ities.aspx

Check by-country P/Es there to see if you want to take a roll on total international or emerging markets specifically. You might be able to drudge up numbers for the international small caps elsewhere.
I thought international had spiked a little as of late which is why I was asking. I don't think this is dangerous or market timing at all. I need to buy 10k of something now and 10k in a couple months. Might as well go with what's undervalued compared to historical prices first. I'll check out the website thanks.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by JonnyDVM »

Pretty slick website. Makes me want to load up on Russia and lean pork futures. :D

Seriously though, it looks like emerging markets/international and US small caps (and I would assume micro caps as well) is the way to go with our next purchases.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
lack_ey
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by lack_ey »

JonnyDVM wrote:Pretty slick website. Makes me want to load up on Russia and lean pork futures. :D

Seriously though, it looks like emerging markets/international and US small caps (and I would assume micro caps as well) is the way to go with our next purchases.
Oink.

By the way, you may want to recheck US small. IIRC I've somewhat recently seen it's a bit high these days. Maybe I misremember.
Choy
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by Choy »

JonnyDVM wrote:US small caps (and I would assume micro caps as well) is the way to go with our next purchases.
Perhaps I'm not reading the chart on the website right, but it appears to be saying that the 10y expected real return on US Small Cap is negative. Why would you want to invest in that now if that were the case? :confused
livesoft
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by livesoft »

Presumably, one rebalanced out of REITs immediately before they dropped 5% (say on January 27, 2015), so now one is ready to rebalance back into REITs.
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sambb
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by sambb »

Look up the callan periodic table of investing. That might give you ideas.
ks289
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by ks289 »

Livesoft,
Can you create a post when there are good rebalancing/tax loss harvesting opportunities? Better yet, you should have your own panel or tab on this site for quick glance information.
If I do not bumble across one of your posts or see massive broad market declines, I wouldn't have any idea about any of these smaller, specific-sector movements. I think I am all set for this year having sold some international.
By the way, how are you monitoring these things so closely?
livesoft
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by livesoft »

ks289 wrote:Livesoft,
Can you create a post when there are good rebalancing/tax loss harvesting opportunities? Better yet, you should have your own panel or tab on this site for quick glance information.
If I do not bumble across one of your posts or see massive broad market declines, I wouldn't have any idea about any of these smaller, specific-sector movements. I think I am all set for this year having sold some international.
By the way, how are you monitoring these things so closely?
I am using something special called Hindsight™. Also see this post: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 2#p2140102 where I show a stock/ETF quote app.

No one liked one of the last times I noted some rebalancing opportunities: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... &p=1748564
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by JonnyDVM »

Choy wrote:
JonnyDVM wrote:US small caps (and I would assume micro caps as well) is the way to go with our next purchases.
Perhaps I'm not reading the chart on the website right, but it appears to be saying that the 10y expected real return on US Small Cap is negative. Why would you want to invest in that now if that were the case? :confused

Yes, you are correct US small caps is a red ball. I meant that first I will buy some more international, probably emerging markets but I don't want to get too far off my target asset allocation. I'm taking these projections with a grain of salt. I'm not going to eschew domestic equities altogether. So my plan was to buy US small/micro before buying more TSM. If that makes sense. So my purchase order would be emerging-total international- us micro- us small- US TSM. Not sure where REITS fit in or international small cap. Also, at some point I need to force myself to buy more bond fund. I always have trouble pulling the trigger on that.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
livesoft
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by livesoft »

A lot of folks seem to have a lot of trouble selling things to rebalance.
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by JonnyDVM »

Most of my rebalancing is done with buying. This is because right now each purchase is enough compared to the total portfolio to move the needle. Also yes, I totally misread the chart US small cap has a negative projected return so it would make sense to put that last in the order and buy TSM first. Maybe by the time I'm done with all the rest small cap will have dropped a little in price.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
lazyday
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Re: Is anything on sale now?

Post by lazyday »

Not sure anything's cheap, except in a relative sense.

Emerging Markets and maybe UK.

I like the RA equity returns methodology, and the page lack_ey linked.

Also see cjking's starcapital link in my UK thread. Korea and Hungary look interesting.
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