Bob Brinker portfolio

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
Topic Author
end44
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:19 pm

Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by end44 »

I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?


Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%

Thanks for your input.
User avatar
ERMD
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Dec 26, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by ERMD »

yikes..

-- all equities 10 years from retirement is pretty risky
-- akre focus ER 1.36. what the hell is that doing amidst those lovely vanguard funds?
-- international is a bit under weighted but that's more personal preference
-- also, i might be wrong, but i think there's some domestic equity overlap
between scotch and nothing, i'll take scotch. -- faulkner
ychuck46
Posts: 166
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2008 12:54 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by ychuck46 »

Like ERMD, I would also get rid of the Akre fund. Depending on your tax situation, swing that 10% into the Vanguard Interm-Term T/E Fund. If you want more International exposure, take 10% from the Vang Total Stock Market fund and put it into the International or FTSE All World. That spreads things out somewhat. You can debate all day which funds are the best but it the % allocation you are looking for - US, Int'l, Bond.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 27850
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by abuss368 »

1) Who is Bob Brinker?

2) That is a lot in equities and a lot of risks.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
steve_14
Posts: 1507
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:05 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by steve_14 »

There's no free lunch in building a complex portfolio that underweights some stocks and overweights others versus a simple total market portfolio, unless you have inside information about the stocks in question. Complexity may feel good, but it's a sucker's bet.
The Wizard
Posts: 13356
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 1:45 pm
Location: Reading, MA

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by The Wizard »

abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
Attempted new signature...
Pacific
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lost in the middle of the Pacific

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by Pacific »

The Wizard wrote:
abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
He's prone to good market-timing moves . . . (sometimes) :happy
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 19275
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:33 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by nedsaid »

At age 52, someone like yourself should think twice about a 100% stock portfolio. My portfolio is approximately 70% stocks/30% fixed income at age 54. If you use the age in bonds minus 10 rule of thumb, you would have about 40% in bonds at your age. I certainly would not go below 20%.

The Akre Focus fund appears to have a good record but I am not sure of its purpose within a portfolio. Focus funds used to be quite the rage, the idea being is that you get the best 20 of a manager's ideas. If you have your own portfolio of individual stocks, 20-25 would be probably the most that an individual investor could handle. My expectation is that a focused fund would have similar returns to its more diversified cousins but with more volatility. My guess is that Bob Brinker probably thinks this fund with give a portfolio a bit of extra kick.

If you like Brinker's portfolio, you could use it for the stock portion of your portfolio. My recommendation would be to have 30% to 40% of your portfolio in bonds. Perhaps use the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index. The main reason that my percentage in bonds is low is because of the very low interest rates.

Have you heard Mr. Brinker talk about this portfolio? Or have you seen this in his newsletter? Has he explained anywhere his thinking behind the use of these particular funds? For example, I am not sure why his is splitting his International investments between an All-World Index (wouldn't this have US Stocks?) and the Vanguard International Growth. He also has the US Total Stock Market Index there too. Of course there is overlap, but he must be trying to overweight something.

I like that he has the Vanguard Dividend Growth fund in there but since dividends are popular right now, I wonder if this is the best time to be executing this strategy. I wonder if he is using this as a proxy for bonds. Dividend stocks are still stocks after all.

I listened to Bob Brinker for years and learned an awful lot from him. I respect his opinions. But I am a bit puzzled over this portfolio. Not bad at all as a portfolio but I wonder what his thinking is behind it.

End44, if you have heard or read anything that Bob Brinker has said about this portfolio, why not report back to us? I would be interested in Brinker's reasoning behind this choice of funds.
A fool and his money are good for business.
The Wizard
Posts: 13356
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 1:45 pm
Location: Reading, MA

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by The Wizard »

Pacific wrote:
The Wizard wrote:
abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
He's prone to good market-timing moves . . . (sometimes) :happy
If you're not aware of his infamous QQQ debacle, you can read about it here (and elsewhere):
http://home.netcom.com/~fanclubs/BobBri ... pdate.html
Attempted new signature...
pkcrafter
Posts: 15461
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:19 am
Location: CA
Contact:

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by pkcrafter »

end44 wrote:I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?


Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%

Thanks for your input.
Brinker has several portfolio recommendations. Why did you choose this 100% equity one?


Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
teacher
Posts: 1165
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 5:45 pm
Location: California

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by teacher »

Akre Focus Fund:
Maximum Fees
Management 0.9%
Redemption 1.0%

Actual Fees
12b-1 0.25%
Management 0.9%
Net Expense Ratio: Annual Report 1.36%
Net Expense Ratio: Prospectus 1.36%
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-fu ... akrex/fees

Compare to Vanguard Capital Opportunity with .48 ER.
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-fu ... vmgrx/fees

Yikes :shock:
Topic Author
end44
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:19 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by end44 »

I appreciate all of you who have replied.

I am subscriber of his news letter . I am invested in portfolio #2. I do not have a sophisticated knowledge in investing. However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constantly asking myself if I am following the right track.
What would be the ideal asset allocation for me if I am planning to retire in 10-15 years?
BTW, We are currently fully invested ( all of it in SEP-IRA). Me and my DW are planning to contribute SEP IRA ~ 100K yearly for the coming productive years of our life. We have set aside some in 529 plans for 3 children and have adequate emergency funds.

Thanks
Last edited by end44 on Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
ERMD
Posts: 291
Joined: Thu Dec 26, 2013 10:26 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by ERMD »

this is an often-asked question and is highly subjective. some people go into a 50/50 total equities/total bonds fund allocation and stick with it through retirement, some get out of equities almost entirely, get a SPIA, focus on TIPS, etc. there are a dozen different answers.
between scotch and nothing, i'll take scotch. -- faulkner
letsgobobby
Posts: 12073
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:10 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by letsgobobby »

end44 wrote:I appreciate all of you who have replied.

I am subscriber of his news letter . I am invested in portfolio #2. I do not have a sophisticated knowledge in investing. However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constantly asking myself if I am following the right track.
What would be the ideal asset allocation for me if I am planning to retire in 10-15 years?
BTW, We are currently fully invested ( all of it in SEP-IRA). Me and my DW are planning to contribute SEP IRA ~ 100K yearly for the coming productive years of our life. We have set aside some in 529 plans for 3 children and have adequate emergency funds.

Thanks
You should post your information in the recommended format at the top of the forum for the most useful advice.

Taking 100% equity risk at this point in your investment life is unwise.

Also, I like listening to Bob but he has no better ability to predict the future than you or anyone else. Use his portfolios as a starting point, but not necessarily the final say.

Decent returns over the last 5 years? So has everyone/everything. Total stock market is up 161% in the same time frame. In other words, I hope you got at least decent returns or better, or you underperformed.
mhalley
Posts: 10432
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 5:02 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by mhalley »

I know bob has several different portfolios. He is generally bogleheadish, so maybe you need to look at portfolio 3 instead of 2, as 100% stocks would generally be considered too aggressive for a 52 yo. Here are a list of some of his portfolios, perhaps you should look at 3.

Portfolio I is designed for investors with aggressive growth investment objectives. Such investors seek maximum returns and are willing and able to accept high levels of risk and volatility. Current income is not a factor in this portfolio.

Portfolio II is designed for investors with long-term growth objectives. Such investors seek to enhance the value of their capital over time. They are willing to assume a reasonable level of diversified market risk. Current income is not an important factor for such investors.

Portfolio III is designed as a balanced portfolio for current investment income along with capital preservation and modest growth. The portfolio is allocated between equities and fixed-income securities. This portfolio is best suited to investors nearing or already enjoying a retirement lifestyle.

Mike
investor
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:50 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by investor »

for $99 you could also try "The Independent Adviser" for a year. I look at that and Brinker and this site and then roll my own.
Check Madsinger monthly reports for the Independent Adviser results.

investor.
User avatar
TimeRunner
Posts: 1939
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:23 pm
Location: Beach-side, CA

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by TimeRunner »

deleted
Last edited by TimeRunner on Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
One cannot enlighten the unconscious. | "All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine." -Jeff Spicoli
User avatar
munemaker
Posts: 4338
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 5:14 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by munemaker »

The Wizard wrote:
Pacific wrote:
The Wizard wrote:
abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
He's prone to good market-timing moves . . . (sometimes) :happy
If you're not aware of his infamous QQQ debacle, you can read about it here (and elsewhere):
http://home.netcom.com/~fanclubs/BobBri ... pdate.html
Wow! From the information on the link, that timing advice to buy and hold the QQQ was really bad. QQQs are mostly tech companies with not much diversification. To me, loading up on QQQ is borderline speculation, certainly not inline with Bogle investing concept of buying and holding the broad market.
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 19275
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:33 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by nedsaid »

For those of you who do not know, Bob Brinker is the host for the "Moneytalk" radio program. He also writes a Market Timer newsletter. Mr. Brinker professionally managed money earlier in his career. As I recall, he started as a portfolio manager for an insurance company.

I listened to him starting in the 1980's, through the 1990's, and into the 2000's. His market timing calls worked great until his infamous QQQ call. But in 2000, he advised investors to sell most of their stock funds, both US and International, and take the proceeds to cash. The QQQ call came later and blew a lot of his market timing credibility.

One his program, he told his listeners to appoint themselves as their own financial advisor and portfolio manager. He warned about the "sharks" or commissioned brokers, advisors, and sales people who put their interests ahead of their clients. He preached do-it-yourself investing and taught the virtues of no-load mutual funds. He also talked a lot about the virtues of low-cost indexing. He believes in market timing but does it sparingly. Since his brilliant 2000 call, his market timing has been spotty at best. But his basic advice was very good and I learned a whole lot from him.

I sort of outgrew him and I have not listened for years. But of the investment media hosts, he was and is one of the best. He also has semi-retired and guest hosts take over much of the time. I put him up there with Louis Rukeyser, the late host of Wall Street Week. A classy act.
A fool and his money are good for business.
basspond
Posts: 1500
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 3:01 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by basspond »

end44 wrote:However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constantly asking myself if I am following the right track.
What would be the ideal asset allocation for me if I am planning to retire in 10-15 years?
BTW, We are currently fully invested ( all of it in SEP-IRA). Me and my DW are planning to contribute SEP IRA ~ 100K yearly for the coming productive years of our life. We have set aside some in 529 plans for 3 children and have adequate emergency funds.
Thanks
Don't fall into the trap that you can use the same investment strategy going forward. As you age and where you pull your money from you will probably have to adjust. But that being said, if you have enough liquid assists to cover your family's expenses for 3-5 years then you should be alright with a much higher equity allocation than most people. Hope it works for you.

I have listened to Bob and like most have said his principles seem very sound.
The Wizard
Posts: 13356
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 1:45 pm
Location: Reading, MA

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by The Wizard »

nedsaid wrote: ...I sort of outgrew him and I have not listened for years. But of the investment media hosts, he was and is one of the best. He also has semi-retired and guest hosts take over much of the time. I put him up there with Louis Rukeyser, the late host of Wall Street Week. A classy act.
That's basically what happened with me, too. His themes of low-cost investing along with the land of critical mass and no alarm clocks was repetitive but fun to listen to for a while.
I did not subscribe to his newsletter and apparently that had much more overt market timing stuff in it...
Attempted new signature...
User avatar
goodenyou
Posts: 3602
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 10:57 pm
Location: Skating to Where the Puck is Going to Be..or on the golf course

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by goodenyou »

Bob Brinker introduced me to low-cost investing over 25 years ago. I started listening to him after advice from a friend. I never followed Brinker's advice fully, but did use bits and pieces of it. He is a big fan of Vanguard, and I did move a lot of my investments over to Vanguard as a result. However, the very name of his newsletter, Marketimer, is antithetical to the Bogle methodology of investing. I don't believe anyone can time the market; people can only get lucky a few times (and unlucky too). He often goes off on a political diatribe, and can be arrogant and surly with his callers. He, at least, gets people thinking about investing.
Last edited by goodenyou on Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | “At 50, everyone has the face he deserves”
User avatar
Honeybee88
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:29 pm
Location: http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blogspot.com/
Contact:

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by Honeybee88 »

Pacific wrote: End44, if you have heard or read anything that Bob Brinker has said about this portfolio, why not report back to us? I would be interested in Brinker's reasoning behind this choice of funds.
I write a summary of every one of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk programs, and I don't charge anything for it. Everything he says about his newsletter portfolios is reported here:

http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blo ... ytalk.html
investor
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:50 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by investor »

count me in as one who watched Louis Rukeyser. Think I watched him from his first program to the last and missed very few in between. I also enjoy Brinker radio shows when i stumble upon them. He always gives common sense commentary. Thanks to the poster above for the Brinker archieves.

investor
rjb112
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:27 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by rjb112 »

mhalley wrote:I know bob has several different portfolios. He is generally bogleheadish, so maybe you need to look at portfolio 3 instead of 2, as 100% stocks would generally be considered too aggressive for a 52 yo. Here are a list of some of his portfolios, perhaps you should look at 3.

Portfolio III is designed as a balanced portfolio for current investment income along with capital preservation and modest growth. The portfolio is allocated between equities and fixed-income securities. This portfolio is best suited to investors nearing or already enjoying a retirement lifestyle.

Mike
-------------------------
Here is Bob Brinker's Model Portfolio III, which is a 50% equities/50% fixed income portfolio, "best suited to investors nearing or already enjoying a retirement lifestyle". As of March 4, 2014 Marketimer newsletter:

Akre Focus Fund (AKREX): 5%
Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX): 5%
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex US Index (VFWIX): 5%
Vanguard International Growth (VWIGX): 5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSMX): 30%
Osterweis Strategic Income Fund (OSTIX): 10%
DoubleLine Low Duration Bond (DLSNX): 20%
Fidelity Floating Rate High Income (FFRHX): 20%
TheScarletPimpernel
Posts: 33
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:22 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by TheScarletPimpernel »

Brinker switches his portfolios at any time. So unless your money is 100% tax deferred it is very difficult to keep your portfolios up to date and get anything approximating the returns he advertises. You may have to open accounts at multiple firms and good luck balancing across them.

Here was portfolio I in July of 2008

15% Baron Partners
05% Dodge & Cox International
15% Meridian Growth Fund
15% Rydex OTC Fund
05% Vanguard International
45% Vanguard Total Stock Market

Compare that to what you posted now...

10% Akre focus fund
10% Vanguard small cap
10% Vanguard dividend growth
10% Vanguard FTSE All-world
10% Vanguard International growth
50%Vanguard total stock market

That is a substantial difference in the same portfolio not even 6 years later - 4 funds are different so you would have incurred capital gain/lose taxes and then had t deal with transferring of accounts etc and then the issue of rebalancing across custodians etc. And then to do what, implement the fantasy known as market timing?

For example Brinker market times and has made several horrendous calls that are not factored into his posted returns. Besides his infamous QQQ debacle he jumped out of the market in 87 and did not get back in until after the market had substantially recovered. In other words he sold near the bottom and bought back in after a large run up.

My advice - don’t waste you time with Bob Brinker.
Pacific
Posts: 1609
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:19 pm
Location: Lost in the middle of the Pacific

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by Pacific »

Honeybee88 wrote:
Pacific wrote: End44, if you have heard or read anything that Bob Brinker has said about this portfolio, why not report back to us? I would be interested in Brinker's reasoning behind this choice of funds.
I write a summary of every one of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk programs, and I don't charge anything for it. Everything he says about his newsletter portfolios is reported here:

http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blo ... ytalk.html
"Pacific" did not write this. It was "nedsaid" that said this!
rjb112
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:27 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by rjb112 »

mhalley wrote:I know bob has several different portfolios. He is generally bogleheadish.............
Mike
--------------------------------
He often recommends investments that might be characterized as "bogleheadish", however:
His current fixed income recommendations are far from "bogleheadish".

Osterweis Strategic Income Fund (OSTIX): 10%
DoubleLine Low Duration Bond (DLSNX): 20%
Fidelity Floating Rate High Income (FFRHX): 20%

Retirees following his 50% fixed income/50% equities approach currently have their 50% fixed income allocated in the 3 mutual funds above. I don't think many Bogleheads would approve of having 20% of a portfolio in a Floating Rate (bank loan) fund. 85% of the bonds in the Fidelity Floating Rate High Income fund are below investment grade.

About 82% of the bonds in the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund are below investment grade, garnering 10% of his recommended retiree portfolio.

About 21% of the DoubleLine Low Duration Bond fund is in below investment grade bonds.

Where's the downside protection here? The other 50% of the portfolio is in equities. What happens to the entire portfolio in a bear market?
What purpose is this fixed income allocation of the total portfolio serving? What is the risk level of the total portfolio if 50% is in equities and the 50% fixed income portion has such a high percentage in below investment grade fixed income?
And this is the portfolio for retirees
Topic Author
end44
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 11:19 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by end44 »

I thank everyone who had input. I have learned a lot from this website. Although I have learned a lot about investing, saving and no-load mutual funds from Mr. Brinker, I have decided to follow the BH approach.
I have decided to go 70/30 with 4 core fund portfolio based on Rick Ferri's recommendation.
Now I can proudly say I am a BH 8-)

God bless you all.
Jim180
Posts: 479
Joined: Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:47 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by Jim180 »

rjb112 wrote: Where's the downside protection here? The other 50% of the portfolio is in equities. What happens to the entire portfolio in a bear market?
In a bear market the whole portfolio would get hit hard. Bob Brinker has so much confidence however that he thinks his marketiming indicators would tell him when a bear market would occur so that he could move to safer bonds at the proper time. Those who follow him however remember that in 2008 he was ridiculing those who were predicting a recession. Fortunately for Brinker he was not making such a big bet on junk bonds at the time. But it shows that he could miss the next recession where his current fixed-income holdings would get slammed.
toddanderson
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:47 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by toddanderson »

Could someone post all of bob Brinkers porfolios
thank you
BillyG
Posts: 427
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2012 8:02 pm
Location: DC, USA

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by BillyG »

end44 wrote:I thank everyone who had input. I have learned a lot from this website. Although I have learned a lot about investing, saving and no-load mutual funds from Mr. Brinker, I have decided to follow the BH approach.
I have decided to go 70/30 with 4 core fund portfolio based on Rick Ferri's recommendation.
Now I can proudly say I am a BH 8-)

God bless you all.
I was on my way to becoming a Boglehead after reading some classics and investing in Vanguard funds. Then I got sidetracked by Bob Brinker and his "Markettimer" newsletter. The name of the newsletter should tell us something. On the good side he liked no load funds but they were not all low fee funds. He also changed his recommendations periodically as he switched from this bond fund to that bond fund and the same for equities. I bought a lot of Dodge & Cox funds per his recommendation. They were not bad but I think Vanguard is a better fund company and I sold all of those when I went "all in" as a Boglehead.

Billy
frugalguy
Posts: 141
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:17 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by frugalguy »

Jim180 wrote: Those who follow him however remember that in 2008 he was ridiculing those who were predicting a recession. Fortunately for Brinker he was not making such a big bet on junk bonds at the time. But it shows that he could miss the next recession where his current fixed-income holdings would get slammed.
The bond side of the portolio does lack downside protection, but I'm questioning whether junk would get "slammed" in the next recession. It got slammed durinng 2008 because that was an all-out credit crisis...a relatively rare event. But the recession in the early 200s was a normal recession. Anyone have performance figures for Vanguard's HY fund during that time?

The thing I remember about Brinker is "We will know in the fullness of time." :)
User avatar
William Million
Posts: 1132
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 4:41 am
Location: A Deep Mountain

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by William Million »

Brinker has done better than some a market timer. He's been right about the direction of the market half the time.
rjb112
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:27 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by rjb112 »

William Million wrote:Brinker has done better than some a market timer. He's been right about the direction of the market half the time.
IMO, less than half.

He exited the stock market via a market timing move in January 1988, after the big loss in October 1987. Went to 100% cash, which was a wrong move, a wrong market call.

He was right about his partial market exit in 2000

Then he made a disastrous market call and had all his subscribers, aggressive, moderate and conservative investors, invest in the Nasdaq 100 in October 2000. Got that one totally wrong........a disastrous investment move.

He did fine getting back into the market in March 2003

Then he told listeners and subscribers, in 2007 and at several points in 2008, that we were not going into a bear market or a recession. Worked out very very badly.

In March 2009 he said the market still had a bottoming process to go thru and it would take time.........got that wrong

In the past 5 1/2 bull market, with few exceptions has incorrectly had subscribers dollar cost averaging into the market or worse, or "dollar cost average on weakness", rather than having them lump sum invest in a bull market.

There's a lot more to say, but all in all, I don't see that has correct 50% of the time.
The Wizard
Posts: 13356
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 1:45 pm
Location: Reading, MA

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by The Wizard »

Yes, but I suspect that Bob Brinker has gotten decently wealthy by churning out market timing advice over the past several decades.
And really, that's the whole point to his game, right?
Attempted new signature...
Jim180
Posts: 479
Joined: Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:47 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by Jim180 »

toddanderson wrote:Could someone post all of bob Brinkers porfolios
thank you
I don't know if it is proper etiquette on this forum to give all the details of his portfolios so I'll make a few general statements. He is a big fan right now of the Vanguard Total Stock Fund on the equity side. He has very low duration bond funds right now because he is fearful of rising rates. He says he doesn't mind taking credit risk in an improving economy to get some yield. Currently he has no Vanguard bond funds however. He feels the Vanguard bond funds have a longer duration than he is comfortable with. The current duration of his all bond "income" portfolio is only 1.1.
Ninegrams
Posts: 557
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:12 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by Ninegrams »

rjb112 wrote:
William Million wrote:Brinker has done better than some a market timer. He's been right about the direction of the market half the time.
IMO, less than half.

He exited the stock market via a market timing move in January 1988, after the big loss in October 1987. Went to 100% cash, which was a wrong move, a wrong market call.

He was right about his partial market exit in 2000

Then he made a disastrous market call and had all his subscribers, aggressive, moderate and conservative investors, invest in the Nasdaq 100 in October 2000. Got that one totally wrong........a disastrous investment move.

He did fine getting back into the market in March 2003

Then he told listeners and subscribers, in 2007 and at several points in 2008, that we were not going into a bear market or a recession. Worked out very very badly.

In March 2009 he said the market still had a bottoming process to go thru and it would take time.........got that wrong

In the past 5 1/2 bull market, with few exceptions has incorrectly had subscribers dollar cost averaging into the market or worse, or "dollar cost average on weakness", rather than having them lump sum invest in a bull market.

There's a lot more to say, but all in all, I don't see that has correct 50% of the time.
+1 :thumbsup
BillyG
Posts: 427
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2012 8:02 pm
Location: DC, USA

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by BillyG »

The fact that his newsletter is called Market[-]Timer should be enough to scream non-Boglehead.
Billy
User avatar
goodenyou
Posts: 3602
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 10:57 pm
Location: Skating to Where the Puck is Going to Be..or on the golf course

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by goodenyou »

With the exception of trying to time the market or call lows and highs, Brinker offers some sound financial advice. He is a proponent of low cost index funds, gives good advice on funding tax privileged accounts, and has made sound recommendations on I-Bonds and favorable rate CDs. He is at times irascible and arrogant. I find that obnoxious. Overall, he is getting people to think about money matters. I like trying to answer callers questions myself to see if I agree with his recommendations. I often do agree. He has interesting authors and topics in the last hour of this show. He is not all that bad.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | “At 50, everyone has the face he deserves”
piperkub
Posts: 59
Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:56 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by piperkub »

Bob Brinker had one of best views of the market and very conservative timing 20 years ago. He's since put his newsletter on auto-print saying the same thing every month, every year. He missed the March, 2009 turn in the market completely and apologize to his members. Things are just so different today that his time has come and gone, but I sincerely thank him for what I learned from him!
toddanderson
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:47 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by toddanderson »

Here is bob brinkers portfolio from Jan 2013


MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO I ($20,000 value on

Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 15 Beta 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 15 1.13
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.07

MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO II ($20,000 value on

Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 10 Beta
. 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 10 1.13
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 10 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.04

MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO III ($40,000 value on

Current Holdings Symbol % Beta
Akre Focus Fund AKREX 05 1.12
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 05 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 05 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 05 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 30 1.04
Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund VFIIX 20 0.06
Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX 10 0.05
DoubleLine Total Return Bond DLTNX 2Q_ 0.00
100% 0.53
User avatar
stemikger
Posts: 4950
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2010 5:02 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by stemikger »

end44 wrote:I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?

Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%

Thanks for your input.
I may be stating the obvious but why not follow John Bogle's advice. Age in bonds as a starting point and pick the Total Stock Market Index and the Total Bond Market Index. All equities may work out, but you can have a smoother ride taking Jack's advice and a simpler portfolio with only two funds. If you want to add international which is something Jack doesn't think is necessary, just put up to 20% in the international index. I am 50 years old and want to retire in the same time period. I hold the Vanguard Institutional Index Fund and Black Rock U.S. Bond Index Fund (my 401K's only index choickes). My current asset allocation is 65/35. When I retire I plan to use the above two funds that Jack recommends or put it all in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund also like Jack suggests.

P.S. I really don't know about Bob Brinker. As far as I'm concerned I found investing nirvana by taking John Bogle's advice. The ultimate in simplicity and it works.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
Ninegrams
Posts: 557
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:12 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by Ninegrams »

toddanderson wrote:Here is bob brinkers portfolio from Jan 2013


MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO I ($20,000 value on

Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 15 Beta 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 15 1.13
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.07

MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO II ($20,000 value on

Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 10 Beta
. 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 10 1.13
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 10 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.04

MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO III ($40,000 value on

Current Holdings Symbol % Beta
Akre Focus Fund AKREX 05 1.12
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 05 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 05 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 05 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 30 1.04
Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund VFIIX 20 0.06
Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX 10 0.05
DoubleLine Total Return Bond DLTNX 2Q_ 0.00
100% 0.53

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


And we should care why?
rjb112
Posts: 91
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:27 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by rjb112 »

I may be stating the obvious but why not follow John Bogle's advice. Age in bonds as a starting point and pick the Total Stock Market Index and the Total Bond Market Index. All equities may work out, but you can have a smoother ride taking Jack's advice and a simpler portfolio with only two funds. If you want to add international which is something Jack doesn't think is necessary, just put up to 20% in the international index. I am 50 years old and want to retire in the same time period. I hold the Vanguard Institutional Index Fund and Black Rock U.S. Bond Index Fund (my 401K's only index choickes). My current asset allocation is 65/35. When I retire I plan to use the above two funds that Jack recommends or put it all in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund also like Jack suggests.

P.S. I really don't know about Bob Brinker. As far as I'm concerned I found investing nirvana by taking John Bogle's advice. The ultimate in simplicity and it works.[/quote]
++++++++++++++++++++
I agree with a great deal of what you posted. Except the part about Bogle's bond fund recommendations

John Bogle no longer recommends the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund as the exclusive bond position for the average investor. A long time ago he did seem to have that recommendation. So I don't believe that he recommends a two fund portfolio any longer, due to his current bond market recommendations. Yes, he does recommend the Total Stock Market Index fund as the exclusive stock market position.

I have seen interviews that Bogle did with Morningstar in 2014 where he now says to take 1/3 to 2/3 of the amount that would have been in the total bond market index fund, and put that in a corporate bond fund for extra yield. He feels that the US government bond position in the total bond market index fund is excessive. He feels that the total bond market index needs to be fixed, that the index itself needs to be fixed. And his solution is to put 1/3 to 2/3 of that investment into an investment grade corporate bond fund, either intermediate or short. He seems to favor intermediate, but did also mention short as a possibility.

And in the most recent interview of Bogle that I saw, he stated what his personal bond market investments were, and I believe he only stated two funds, an intermediate investment grade bond fund (Vanguard of course), and a municipal bond fund. He did not even mention the total bond market index fund at all.

I would like to see a new thread/topic opened up discussing Bogle's current bond fund recommendations, so a lot of people could weigh in on this, as I don't think there will be a lot of people commenting on this topic with the current subject.

I think it is a very important topic: exactly what does Bogle recommend for bond market investments.
User avatar
stemikger
Posts: 4950
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2010 5:02 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by stemikger »

rjb112 wrote: I agree with a great deal of what you posted. Except the part about Bogle's bond fund recommendations

John Bogle no longer recommends the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund as the exclusive bond position for the average investor. A long time ago he did seem to have that recommendation. So I don't believe that he recommends a two fund portfolio any longer, due to his current bond market recommendations. Yes, he does recommend the Total Stock Market Index fund as the exclusive stock market position.

I have seen interviews that Bogle did with Morningstar in 2014 where he now says to take 1/3 to 2/3 of the amount that would have been in the total bond market index fund, and put that in a corporate bond fund for extra yield. He feels that the US government bond position in the total bond market index fund is excessive. He feels that the total bond market index needs to be fixed, that the index itself needs to be fixed. And his solution is to put 1/3 to 2/3 of that investment into an investment grade corporate bond fund, either intermediate or short. He seems to favor intermediate, but did also mention short as a possibility.

And in the most recent interview of Bogle that I saw, he stated what his personal bond market investments were, and I believe he only stated two funds, an intermediate investment grade bond fund (Vanguard of course), and a municipal bond fund. He did not even mention the total bond market index fund at all.

I would like to see a new thread/topic opened up discussing Bogle's current bond fund recommendations, so a lot of people could weigh in on this, as I don't think there will be a lot of people commenting on this topic with the current subject.

I think it is a very important topic: exactly what does Bogle recommend for bond market investments.
Hi rjb112

Good point. You may find this video interesting. I spoke with Vanguard regarding this and if you look at their target date funds and lifestyle funds, they are still using the Vangaurd Total Bond Index Funds along with the Vanguard International Index Funds in their AA.

They said just don't expect the returns of the past but by using that fund they expect it to still do its job as a good diversifier.

Jack still advises people wanting a one fund solution to use the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qg959oYCxU
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
bigguy8437
Posts: 404
Joined: Tue May 26, 2015 12:02 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by bigguy8437 »

I am pretty young so i follow the aggressive portfolio. I just started following his aggressive in october 2014, and one of the funds he tells us to buy is VFWIX, and since oct. 2014 that fund is down ~3.5%. AKREX is up 15%, and NAESX is up 10%. he also has 50% of the portfolio to VTSMX. I'm just a little frustrated he keeps advising to get VFWIX. Anyone have a clue as to why he might like VFWIX?
miles monroe
Posts: 1290
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:14 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by miles monroe »

bigguy8437 wrote:I am pretty young so i follow the aggressive portfolio. I just started following his aggressive in october 2014, and one of the funds he tells us to buy is VFWIX, and since oct. 2014 that fund is down ~3.5%. AKREX is up 15%, and NAESX is up 10%. he also has 50% of the portfolio to VTSMX. I'm just a little frustrated he keeps advising to get VFWIX. Anyone have a clue as to why he might like VFWIX?
most people think you have 30% plus or minus of the equity portion of your asset allocation in foreign stocks. VFWIX is the foreign version of VTSMX. at some point it will outperform.
User avatar
stemikger
Posts: 4950
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2010 5:02 am

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by stemikger »

end44 wrote:I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?


Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%

Thanks for your input.
Vanguard's Target Retirement for someone who is ten years from retirement has somewhere around 68% stocks and 32% in bonds. I will be 52 in June and my goal is to retire in 10 to 12 years. I know Warren Buffett recently advised most folks to be all in equities after you hold enough cash to feel secure, but I rather side with John Bogle and hold bonds for ballast. I personally like the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund which is 60/40. I hold that in my IRA and in my 401K I am 65/35 stocks bonds. I know I will still lose money in a bad market, but I will most likely not feel it as much as an all equity portfolio. I tried that for a short period of time, and I worried too much about a bad correction.

With ten years left before retirement, I would take a more conservative stance and hold some bonds for ballast.

Now, having said all that, I don't know if you have a great pension and other sources of income in retirement. If that is the case and you could do well if your portfolio goes down 50%, then you may very well be a candidate for an all equity portfolio. John Bogle sometimes says, you should view your social security as part of your bond holdings. If that is the case, I should just hold a 60/40 portfolio for life, which I may very well do.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
larklea
Posts: 225
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 1:48 pm

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Post by larklea »

You should consider some of the resources (online or books) for gauging your risk tolerance. The first thing a good advisor with do is gauge this tolerance. It doesn't matter what the "right" asset allocation is, if you can't tolerate it and can't sleep nights.

I'm a few years older than you and I'm 50% equities, but I'm closer to retirement than you are. I'm willing to leave some return on the table at this point.
Post Reply