Bob Brinker portfolio
Bob Brinker portfolio
I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?
Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%
Thanks for your input.
Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%
Thanks for your input.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
yikes..
-- all equities 10 years from retirement is pretty risky
-- akre focus ER 1.36. what the hell is that doing amidst those lovely vanguard funds?
-- international is a bit under weighted but that's more personal preference
-- also, i might be wrong, but i think there's some domestic equity overlap
-- all equities 10 years from retirement is pretty risky
-- akre focus ER 1.36. what the hell is that doing amidst those lovely vanguard funds?
-- international is a bit under weighted but that's more personal preference
-- also, i might be wrong, but i think there's some domestic equity overlap
between scotch and nothing, i'll take scotch. -- faulkner
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Like ERMD, I would also get rid of the Akre fund. Depending on your tax situation, swing that 10% into the Vanguard Interm-Term T/E Fund. If you want more International exposure, take 10% from the Vang Total Stock Market fund and put it into the International or FTSE All World. That spreads things out somewhat. You can debate all day which funds are the best but it the % allocation you are looking for - US, Int'l, Bond.
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
1) Who is Bob Brinker?
2) That is a lot in equities and a lot of risks.
2) That is a lot in equities and a lot of risks.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
There's no free lunch in building a complex portfolio that underweights some stocks and overweights others versus a simple total market portfolio, unless you have inside information about the stocks in question. Complexity may feel good, but it's a sucker's bet.
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
He's prone to good market-timing moves . . . (sometimes)The Wizard wrote:To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
At age 52, someone like yourself should think twice about a 100% stock portfolio. My portfolio is approximately 70% stocks/30% fixed income at age 54. If you use the age in bonds minus 10 rule of thumb, you would have about 40% in bonds at your age. I certainly would not go below 20%.
The Akre Focus fund appears to have a good record but I am not sure of its purpose within a portfolio. Focus funds used to be quite the rage, the idea being is that you get the best 20 of a manager's ideas. If you have your own portfolio of individual stocks, 20-25 would be probably the most that an individual investor could handle. My expectation is that a focused fund would have similar returns to its more diversified cousins but with more volatility. My guess is that Bob Brinker probably thinks this fund with give a portfolio a bit of extra kick.
If you like Brinker's portfolio, you could use it for the stock portion of your portfolio. My recommendation would be to have 30% to 40% of your portfolio in bonds. Perhaps use the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index. The main reason that my percentage in bonds is low is because of the very low interest rates.
Have you heard Mr. Brinker talk about this portfolio? Or have you seen this in his newsletter? Has he explained anywhere his thinking behind the use of these particular funds? For example, I am not sure why his is splitting his International investments between an All-World Index (wouldn't this have US Stocks?) and the Vanguard International Growth. He also has the US Total Stock Market Index there too. Of course there is overlap, but he must be trying to overweight something.
I like that he has the Vanguard Dividend Growth fund in there but since dividends are popular right now, I wonder if this is the best time to be executing this strategy. I wonder if he is using this as a proxy for bonds. Dividend stocks are still stocks after all.
I listened to Bob Brinker for years and learned an awful lot from him. I respect his opinions. But I am a bit puzzled over this portfolio. Not bad at all as a portfolio but I wonder what his thinking is behind it.
End44, if you have heard or read anything that Bob Brinker has said about this portfolio, why not report back to us? I would be interested in Brinker's reasoning behind this choice of funds.
The Akre Focus fund appears to have a good record but I am not sure of its purpose within a portfolio. Focus funds used to be quite the rage, the idea being is that you get the best 20 of a manager's ideas. If you have your own portfolio of individual stocks, 20-25 would be probably the most that an individual investor could handle. My expectation is that a focused fund would have similar returns to its more diversified cousins but with more volatility. My guess is that Bob Brinker probably thinks this fund with give a portfolio a bit of extra kick.
If you like Brinker's portfolio, you could use it for the stock portion of your portfolio. My recommendation would be to have 30% to 40% of your portfolio in bonds. Perhaps use the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index. The main reason that my percentage in bonds is low is because of the very low interest rates.
Have you heard Mr. Brinker talk about this portfolio? Or have you seen this in his newsletter? Has he explained anywhere his thinking behind the use of these particular funds? For example, I am not sure why his is splitting his International investments between an All-World Index (wouldn't this have US Stocks?) and the Vanguard International Growth. He also has the US Total Stock Market Index there too. Of course there is overlap, but he must be trying to overweight something.
I like that he has the Vanguard Dividend Growth fund in there but since dividends are popular right now, I wonder if this is the best time to be executing this strategy. I wonder if he is using this as a proxy for bonds. Dividend stocks are still stocks after all.
I listened to Bob Brinker for years and learned an awful lot from him. I respect his opinions. But I am a bit puzzled over this portfolio. Not bad at all as a portfolio but I wonder what his thinking is behind it.
End44, if you have heard or read anything that Bob Brinker has said about this portfolio, why not report back to us? I would be interested in Brinker's reasoning behind this choice of funds.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
If you're not aware of his infamous QQQ debacle, you can read about it here (and elsewhere):Pacific wrote:He's prone to good market-timing moves . . . (sometimes)The Wizard wrote:To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
http://home.netcom.com/~fanclubs/BobBri ... pdate.html
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Brinker has several portfolio recommendations. Why did you choose this 100% equity one?end44 wrote:I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?
Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%
Thanks for your input.
Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Akre Focus Fund:
Maximum Fees
Management 0.9%
Redemption 1.0%
Actual Fees
12b-1 0.25%
Management 0.9%
Net Expense Ratio: Annual Report 1.36%
Net Expense Ratio: Prospectus 1.36%
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-fu ... akrex/fees
Compare to Vanguard Capital Opportunity with .48 ER.
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-fu ... vmgrx/fees
Yikes
Maximum Fees
Management 0.9%
Redemption 1.0%
Actual Fees
12b-1 0.25%
Management 0.9%
Net Expense Ratio: Annual Report 1.36%
Net Expense Ratio: Prospectus 1.36%
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-fu ... akrex/fees
Compare to Vanguard Capital Opportunity with .48 ER.
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-fu ... vmgrx/fees
Yikes
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I appreciate all of you who have replied.
I am subscriber of his news letter . I am invested in portfolio #2. I do not have a sophisticated knowledge in investing. However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constantly asking myself if I am following the right track.
What would be the ideal asset allocation for me if I am planning to retire in 10-15 years?
BTW, We are currently fully invested ( all of it in SEP-IRA). Me and my DW are planning to contribute SEP IRA ~ 100K yearly for the coming productive years of our life. We have set aside some in 529 plans for 3 children and have adequate emergency funds.
Thanks
I am subscriber of his news letter . I am invested in portfolio #2. I do not have a sophisticated knowledge in investing. However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constantly asking myself if I am following the right track.
What would be the ideal asset allocation for me if I am planning to retire in 10-15 years?
BTW, We are currently fully invested ( all of it in SEP-IRA). Me and my DW are planning to contribute SEP IRA ~ 100K yearly for the coming productive years of our life. We have set aside some in 529 plans for 3 children and have adequate emergency funds.
Thanks
Last edited by end44 on Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
this is an often-asked question and is highly subjective. some people go into a 50/50 total equities/total bonds fund allocation and stick with it through retirement, some get out of equities almost entirely, get a SPIA, focus on TIPS, etc. there are a dozen different answers.
between scotch and nothing, i'll take scotch. -- faulkner
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
You should post your information in the recommended format at the top of the forum for the most useful advice.end44 wrote:I appreciate all of you who have replied.
I am subscriber of his news letter . I am invested in portfolio #2. I do not have a sophisticated knowledge in investing. However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constantly asking myself if I am following the right track.
What would be the ideal asset allocation for me if I am planning to retire in 10-15 years?
BTW, We are currently fully invested ( all of it in SEP-IRA). Me and my DW are planning to contribute SEP IRA ~ 100K yearly for the coming productive years of our life. We have set aside some in 529 plans for 3 children and have adequate emergency funds.
Thanks
Taking 100% equity risk at this point in your investment life is unwise.
Also, I like listening to Bob but he has no better ability to predict the future than you or anyone else. Use his portfolios as a starting point, but not necessarily the final say.
Decent returns over the last 5 years? So has everyone/everything. Total stock market is up 161% in the same time frame. In other words, I hope you got at least decent returns or better, or you underperformed.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I know bob has several different portfolios. He is generally bogleheadish, so maybe you need to look at portfolio 3 instead of 2, as 100% stocks would generally be considered too aggressive for a 52 yo. Here are a list of some of his portfolios, perhaps you should look at 3.
Portfolio I is designed for investors with aggressive growth investment objectives. Such investors seek maximum returns and are willing and able to accept high levels of risk and volatility. Current income is not a factor in this portfolio.
Portfolio II is designed for investors with long-term growth objectives. Such investors seek to enhance the value of their capital over time. They are willing to assume a reasonable level of diversified market risk. Current income is not an important factor for such investors.
Portfolio III is designed as a balanced portfolio for current investment income along with capital preservation and modest growth. The portfolio is allocated between equities and fixed-income securities. This portfolio is best suited to investors nearing or already enjoying a retirement lifestyle.
Mike
Portfolio I is designed for investors with aggressive growth investment objectives. Such investors seek maximum returns and are willing and able to accept high levels of risk and volatility. Current income is not a factor in this portfolio.
Portfolio II is designed for investors with long-term growth objectives. Such investors seek to enhance the value of their capital over time. They are willing to assume a reasonable level of diversified market risk. Current income is not an important factor for such investors.
Portfolio III is designed as a balanced portfolio for current investment income along with capital preservation and modest growth. The portfolio is allocated between equities and fixed-income securities. This portfolio is best suited to investors nearing or already enjoying a retirement lifestyle.
Mike
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
for $99 you could also try "The Independent Adviser" for a year. I look at that and Brinker and this site and then roll my own.
Check Madsinger monthly reports for the Independent Adviser results.
investor.
Check Madsinger monthly reports for the Independent Adviser results.
investor.
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Wow! From the information on the link, that timing advice to buy and hold the QQQ was really bad. QQQs are mostly tech companies with not much diversification. To me, loading up on QQQ is borderline speculation, certainly not inline with Bogle investing concept of buying and holding the broad market.The Wizard wrote:If you're not aware of his infamous QQQ debacle, you can read about it here (and elsewhere):Pacific wrote:He's prone to good market-timing moves . . . (sometimes)The Wizard wrote:To his credit, Bob Brinker has spread the good word about Vanguard on his radio show for many years, at least back when I listened to it.abuss368 wrote:1) Who is Bob Brinker?
But I'm not sure I'd let him manage my portfolio; he's prone to bad market-timing moves...
http://home.netcom.com/~fanclubs/BobBri ... pdate.html
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
For those of you who do not know, Bob Brinker is the host for the "Moneytalk" radio program. He also writes a Market Timer newsletter. Mr. Brinker professionally managed money earlier in his career. As I recall, he started as a portfolio manager for an insurance company.
I listened to him starting in the 1980's, through the 1990's, and into the 2000's. His market timing calls worked great until his infamous QQQ call. But in 2000, he advised investors to sell most of their stock funds, both US and International, and take the proceeds to cash. The QQQ call came later and blew a lot of his market timing credibility.
One his program, he told his listeners to appoint themselves as their own financial advisor and portfolio manager. He warned about the "sharks" or commissioned brokers, advisors, and sales people who put their interests ahead of their clients. He preached do-it-yourself investing and taught the virtues of no-load mutual funds. He also talked a lot about the virtues of low-cost indexing. He believes in market timing but does it sparingly. Since his brilliant 2000 call, his market timing has been spotty at best. But his basic advice was very good and I learned a whole lot from him.
I sort of outgrew him and I have not listened for years. But of the investment media hosts, he was and is one of the best. He also has semi-retired and guest hosts take over much of the time. I put him up there with Louis Rukeyser, the late host of Wall Street Week. A classy act.
I listened to him starting in the 1980's, through the 1990's, and into the 2000's. His market timing calls worked great until his infamous QQQ call. But in 2000, he advised investors to sell most of their stock funds, both US and International, and take the proceeds to cash. The QQQ call came later and blew a lot of his market timing credibility.
One his program, he told his listeners to appoint themselves as their own financial advisor and portfolio manager. He warned about the "sharks" or commissioned brokers, advisors, and sales people who put their interests ahead of their clients. He preached do-it-yourself investing and taught the virtues of no-load mutual funds. He also talked a lot about the virtues of low-cost indexing. He believes in market timing but does it sparingly. Since his brilliant 2000 call, his market timing has been spotty at best. But his basic advice was very good and I learned a whole lot from him.
I sort of outgrew him and I have not listened for years. But of the investment media hosts, he was and is one of the best. He also has semi-retired and guest hosts take over much of the time. I put him up there with Louis Rukeyser, the late host of Wall Street Week. A classy act.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Don't fall into the trap that you can use the same investment strategy going forward. As you age and where you pull your money from you will probably have to adjust. But that being said, if you have enough liquid assists to cover your family's expenses for 3-5 years then you should be alright with a much higher equity allocation than most people. Hope it works for you.end44 wrote:However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constantly asking myself if I am following the right track.
What would be the ideal asset allocation for me if I am planning to retire in 10-15 years?
BTW, We are currently fully invested ( all of it in SEP-IRA). Me and my DW are planning to contribute SEP IRA ~ 100K yearly for the coming productive years of our life. We have set aside some in 529 plans for 3 children and have adequate emergency funds.
Thanks
I have listened to Bob and like most have said his principles seem very sound.
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
That's basically what happened with me, too. His themes of low-cost investing along with the land of critical mass and no alarm clocks was repetitive but fun to listen to for a while.nedsaid wrote: ...I sort of outgrew him and I have not listened for years. But of the investment media hosts, he was and is one of the best. He also has semi-retired and guest hosts take over much of the time. I put him up there with Louis Rukeyser, the late host of Wall Street Week. A classy act.
I did not subscribe to his newsletter and apparently that had much more overt market timing stuff in it...
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Bob Brinker introduced me to low-cost investing over 25 years ago. I started listening to him after advice from a friend. I never followed Brinker's advice fully, but did use bits and pieces of it. He is a big fan of Vanguard, and I did move a lot of my investments over to Vanguard as a result. However, the very name of his newsletter, Marketimer, is antithetical to the Bogle methodology of investing. I don't believe anyone can time the market; people can only get lucky a few times (and unlucky too). He often goes off on a political diatribe, and can be arrogant and surly with his callers. He, at least, gets people thinking about investing.
Last edited by goodenyou on Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I write a summary of every one of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk programs, and I don't charge anything for it. Everything he says about his newsletter portfolios is reported here:Pacific wrote: End44, if you have heard or read anything that Bob Brinker has said about this portfolio, why not report back to us? I would be interested in Brinker's reasoning behind this choice of funds.
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blo ... ytalk.html
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
count me in as one who watched Louis Rukeyser. Think I watched him from his first program to the last and missed very few in between. I also enjoy Brinker radio shows when i stumble upon them. He always gives common sense commentary. Thanks to the poster above for the Brinker archieves.
investor
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
-------------------------mhalley wrote:I know bob has several different portfolios. He is generally bogleheadish, so maybe you need to look at portfolio 3 instead of 2, as 100% stocks would generally be considered too aggressive for a 52 yo. Here are a list of some of his portfolios, perhaps you should look at 3.
Portfolio III is designed as a balanced portfolio for current investment income along with capital preservation and modest growth. The portfolio is allocated between equities and fixed-income securities. This portfolio is best suited to investors nearing or already enjoying a retirement lifestyle.
Mike
Here is Bob Brinker's Model Portfolio III, which is a 50% equities/50% fixed income portfolio, "best suited to investors nearing or already enjoying a retirement lifestyle". As of March 4, 2014 Marketimer newsletter:
Akre Focus Fund (AKREX): 5%
Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX): 5%
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex US Index (VFWIX): 5%
Vanguard International Growth (VWIGX): 5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSMX): 30%
Osterweis Strategic Income Fund (OSTIX): 10%
DoubleLine Low Duration Bond (DLSNX): 20%
Fidelity Floating Rate High Income (FFRHX): 20%
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Brinker switches his portfolios at any time. So unless your money is 100% tax deferred it is very difficult to keep your portfolios up to date and get anything approximating the returns he advertises. You may have to open accounts at multiple firms and good luck balancing across them.
Here was portfolio I in July of 2008
15% Baron Partners
05% Dodge & Cox International
15% Meridian Growth Fund
15% Rydex OTC Fund
05% Vanguard International
45% Vanguard Total Stock Market
Compare that to what you posted now...
10% Akre focus fund
10% Vanguard small cap
10% Vanguard dividend growth
10% Vanguard FTSE All-world
10% Vanguard International growth
50%Vanguard total stock market
That is a substantial difference in the same portfolio not even 6 years later - 4 funds are different so you would have incurred capital gain/lose taxes and then had t deal with transferring of accounts etc and then the issue of rebalancing across custodians etc. And then to do what, implement the fantasy known as market timing?
For example Brinker market times and has made several horrendous calls that are not factored into his posted returns. Besides his infamous QQQ debacle he jumped out of the market in 87 and did not get back in until after the market had substantially recovered. In other words he sold near the bottom and bought back in after a large run up.
My advice - don’t waste you time with Bob Brinker.
Here was portfolio I in July of 2008
15% Baron Partners
05% Dodge & Cox International
15% Meridian Growth Fund
15% Rydex OTC Fund
05% Vanguard International
45% Vanguard Total Stock Market
Compare that to what you posted now...
10% Akre focus fund
10% Vanguard small cap
10% Vanguard dividend growth
10% Vanguard FTSE All-world
10% Vanguard International growth
50%Vanguard total stock market
That is a substantial difference in the same portfolio not even 6 years later - 4 funds are different so you would have incurred capital gain/lose taxes and then had t deal with transferring of accounts etc and then the issue of rebalancing across custodians etc. And then to do what, implement the fantasy known as market timing?
For example Brinker market times and has made several horrendous calls that are not factored into his posted returns. Besides his infamous QQQ debacle he jumped out of the market in 87 and did not get back in until after the market had substantially recovered. In other words he sold near the bottom and bought back in after a large run up.
My advice - don’t waste you time with Bob Brinker.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
"Pacific" did not write this. It was "nedsaid" that said this!Honeybee88 wrote:I write a summary of every one of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk programs, and I don't charge anything for it. Everything he says about his newsletter portfolios is reported here:Pacific wrote: End44, if you have heard or read anything that Bob Brinker has said about this portfolio, why not report back to us? I would be interested in Brinker's reasoning behind this choice of funds.
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz3.blo ... ytalk.html
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
--------------------------------mhalley wrote:I know bob has several different portfolios. He is generally bogleheadish.............
Mike
He often recommends investments that might be characterized as "bogleheadish", however:
His current fixed income recommendations are far from "bogleheadish".
Osterweis Strategic Income Fund (OSTIX): 10%
DoubleLine Low Duration Bond (DLSNX): 20%
Fidelity Floating Rate High Income (FFRHX): 20%
Retirees following his 50% fixed income/50% equities approach currently have their 50% fixed income allocated in the 3 mutual funds above. I don't think many Bogleheads would approve of having 20% of a portfolio in a Floating Rate (bank loan) fund. 85% of the bonds in the Fidelity Floating Rate High Income fund are below investment grade.
About 82% of the bonds in the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund are below investment grade, garnering 10% of his recommended retiree portfolio.
About 21% of the DoubleLine Low Duration Bond fund is in below investment grade bonds.
Where's the downside protection here? The other 50% of the portfolio is in equities. What happens to the entire portfolio in a bear market?
What purpose is this fixed income allocation of the total portfolio serving? What is the risk level of the total portfolio if 50% is in equities and the 50% fixed income portion has such a high percentage in below investment grade fixed income?
And this is the portfolio for retirees
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I thank everyone who had input. I have learned a lot from this website. Although I have learned a lot about investing, saving and no-load mutual funds from Mr. Brinker, I have decided to follow the BH approach.
I have decided to go 70/30 with 4 core fund portfolio based on Rick Ferri's recommendation.
Now I can proudly say I am a BH
God bless you all.
I have decided to go 70/30 with 4 core fund portfolio based on Rick Ferri's recommendation.
Now I can proudly say I am a BH
God bless you all.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
In a bear market the whole portfolio would get hit hard. Bob Brinker has so much confidence however that he thinks his marketiming indicators would tell him when a bear market would occur so that he could move to safer bonds at the proper time. Those who follow him however remember that in 2008 he was ridiculing those who were predicting a recession. Fortunately for Brinker he was not making such a big bet on junk bonds at the time. But it shows that he could miss the next recession where his current fixed-income holdings would get slammed.rjb112 wrote: Where's the downside protection here? The other 50% of the portfolio is in equities. What happens to the entire portfolio in a bear market?
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Could someone post all of bob Brinkers porfolios
thank you
thank you
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I was on my way to becoming a Boglehead after reading some classics and investing in Vanguard funds. Then I got sidetracked by Bob Brinker and his "Markettimer" newsletter. The name of the newsletter should tell us something. On the good side he liked no load funds but they were not all low fee funds. He also changed his recommendations periodically as he switched from this bond fund to that bond fund and the same for equities. I bought a lot of Dodge & Cox funds per his recommendation. They were not bad but I think Vanguard is a better fund company and I sold all of those when I went "all in" as a Boglehead.end44 wrote:I thank everyone who had input. I have learned a lot from this website. Although I have learned a lot about investing, saving and no-load mutual funds from Mr. Brinker, I have decided to follow the BH approach.
I have decided to go 70/30 with 4 core fund portfolio based on Rick Ferri's recommendation.
Now I can proudly say I am a BH
God bless you all.
Billy
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
The bond side of the portolio does lack downside protection, but I'm questioning whether junk would get "slammed" in the next recession. It got slammed durinng 2008 because that was an all-out credit crisis...a relatively rare event. But the recession in the early 200s was a normal recession. Anyone have performance figures for Vanguard's HY fund during that time?Jim180 wrote: Those who follow him however remember that in 2008 he was ridiculing those who were predicting a recession. Fortunately for Brinker he was not making such a big bet on junk bonds at the time. But it shows that he could miss the next recession where his current fixed-income holdings would get slammed.
The thing I remember about Brinker is "We will know in the fullness of time."
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Brinker has done better than some a market timer. He's been right about the direction of the market half the time.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
IMO, less than half.William Million wrote:Brinker has done better than some a market timer. He's been right about the direction of the market half the time.
He exited the stock market via a market timing move in January 1988, after the big loss in October 1987. Went to 100% cash, which was a wrong move, a wrong market call.
He was right about his partial market exit in 2000
Then he made a disastrous market call and had all his subscribers, aggressive, moderate and conservative investors, invest in the Nasdaq 100 in October 2000. Got that one totally wrong........a disastrous investment move.
He did fine getting back into the market in March 2003
Then he told listeners and subscribers, in 2007 and at several points in 2008, that we were not going into a bear market or a recession. Worked out very very badly.
In March 2009 he said the market still had a bottoming process to go thru and it would take time.........got that wrong
In the past 5 1/2 bull market, with few exceptions has incorrectly had subscribers dollar cost averaging into the market or worse, or "dollar cost average on weakness", rather than having them lump sum invest in a bull market.
There's a lot more to say, but all in all, I don't see that has correct 50% of the time.
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Yes, but I suspect that Bob Brinker has gotten decently wealthy by churning out market timing advice over the past several decades.
And really, that's the whole point to his game, right?
And really, that's the whole point to his game, right?
Attempted new signature...
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I don't know if it is proper etiquette on this forum to give all the details of his portfolios so I'll make a few general statements. He is a big fan right now of the Vanguard Total Stock Fund on the equity side. He has very low duration bond funds right now because he is fearful of rising rates. He says he doesn't mind taking credit risk in an improving economy to get some yield. Currently he has no Vanguard bond funds however. He feels the Vanguard bond funds have a longer duration than he is comfortable with. The current duration of his all bond "income" portfolio is only 1.1.toddanderson wrote:Could someone post all of bob Brinkers porfolios
thank you
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
+1rjb112 wrote:IMO, less than half.William Million wrote:Brinker has done better than some a market timer. He's been right about the direction of the market half the time.
He exited the stock market via a market timing move in January 1988, after the big loss in October 1987. Went to 100% cash, which was a wrong move, a wrong market call.
He was right about his partial market exit in 2000
Then he made a disastrous market call and had all his subscribers, aggressive, moderate and conservative investors, invest in the Nasdaq 100 in October 2000. Got that one totally wrong........a disastrous investment move.
He did fine getting back into the market in March 2003
Then he told listeners and subscribers, in 2007 and at several points in 2008, that we were not going into a bear market or a recession. Worked out very very badly.
In March 2009 he said the market still had a bottoming process to go thru and it would take time.........got that wrong
In the past 5 1/2 bull market, with few exceptions has incorrectly had subscribers dollar cost averaging into the market or worse, or "dollar cost average on weakness", rather than having them lump sum invest in a bull market.
There's a lot more to say, but all in all, I don't see that has correct 50% of the time.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
The fact that his newsletter is called Market[-]Timer should be enough to scream non-Boglehead.
Billy
Billy
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
With the exception of trying to time the market or call lows and highs, Brinker offers some sound financial advice. He is a proponent of low cost index funds, gives good advice on funding tax privileged accounts, and has made sound recommendations on I-Bonds and favorable rate CDs. He is at times irascible and arrogant. I find that obnoxious. Overall, he is getting people to think about money matters. I like trying to answer callers questions myself to see if I agree with his recommendations. I often do agree. He has interesting authors and topics in the last hour of this show. He is not all that bad.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" |
“At 50, everyone has the face he deserves”
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Bob Brinker had one of best views of the market and very conservative timing 20 years ago. He's since put his newsletter on auto-print saying the same thing every month, every year. He missed the March, 2009 turn in the market completely and apologize to his members. Things are just so different today that his time has come and gone, but I sincerely thank him for what I learned from him!
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Here is bob brinkers portfolio from Jan 2013
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO I ($20,000 value on
Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 15 Beta 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 15 1.13
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.07
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO II ($20,000 value on
Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 10 Beta
. 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 10 1.13
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 10 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.04
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO III ($40,000 value on
Current Holdings Symbol % Beta
Akre Focus Fund AKREX 05 1.12
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 05 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 05 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 05 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 30 1.04
Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund VFIIX 20 0.06
Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX 10 0.05
DoubleLine Total Return Bond DLTNX 2Q_ 0.00
100% 0.53
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO I ($20,000 value on
Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 15 Beta 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 15 1.13
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.07
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO II ($20,000 value on
Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 10 Beta
. 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 10 1.13
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 10 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.04
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO III ($40,000 value on
Current Holdings Symbol % Beta
Akre Focus Fund AKREX 05 1.12
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 05 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 05 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 05 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 30 1.04
Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund VFIIX 20 0.06
Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX 10 0.05
DoubleLine Total Return Bond DLTNX 2Q_ 0.00
100% 0.53
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I may be stating the obvious but why not follow John Bogle's advice. Age in bonds as a starting point and pick the Total Stock Market Index and the Total Bond Market Index. All equities may work out, but you can have a smoother ride taking Jack's advice and a simpler portfolio with only two funds. If you want to add international which is something Jack doesn't think is necessary, just put up to 20% in the international index. I am 50 years old and want to retire in the same time period. I hold the Vanguard Institutional Index Fund and Black Rock U.S. Bond Index Fund (my 401K's only index choickes). My current asset allocation is 65/35. When I retire I plan to use the above two funds that Jack recommends or put it all in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund also like Jack suggests.end44 wrote:I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?
Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%
Thanks for your input.
P.S. I really don't know about Bob Brinker. As far as I'm concerned I found investing nirvana by taking John Bogle's advice. The ultimate in simplicity and it works.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
toddanderson wrote:Here is bob brinkers portfolio from Jan 2013
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO I ($20,000 value on
Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 15 Beta 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 15 1.13
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.07
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO II ($20,000 value on
Current Holdings Akre Focus Fund Symbol AKREX % 10 Beta
. 1.12
T Rowe Price New Horizons Fund PRNHX 10 1.13
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 10 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 10 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 10 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 1.04
100% 1.04
MARKETIMER MODEL PORTFOLIO III ($40,000 value on
Current Holdings Symbol % Beta
Akre Focus Fund AKREX 05 1.12
Vanguard Dividend Growth VDIGX 05 0.79
Vanguard FTSE All-World VFWIX 05 1.06
Vanguard International Growth VWIGX 05 1.07
Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 30 1.04
Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund VFIIX 20 0.06
Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX 10 0.05
DoubleLine Total Return Bond DLTNX 2Q_ 0.00
100% 0.53
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And we should care why?
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I may be stating the obvious but why not follow John Bogle's advice. Age in bonds as a starting point and pick the Total Stock Market Index and the Total Bond Market Index. All equities may work out, but you can have a smoother ride taking Jack's advice and a simpler portfolio with only two funds. If you want to add international which is something Jack doesn't think is necessary, just put up to 20% in the international index. I am 50 years old and want to retire in the same time period. I hold the Vanguard Institutional Index Fund and Black Rock U.S. Bond Index Fund (my 401K's only index choickes). My current asset allocation is 65/35. When I retire I plan to use the above two funds that Jack recommends or put it all in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund also like Jack suggests.
P.S. I really don't know about Bob Brinker. As far as I'm concerned I found investing nirvana by taking John Bogle's advice. The ultimate in simplicity and it works.[/quote]
++++++++++++++++++++
I agree with a great deal of what you posted. Except the part about Bogle's bond fund recommendations
John Bogle no longer recommends the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund as the exclusive bond position for the average investor. A long time ago he did seem to have that recommendation. So I don't believe that he recommends a two fund portfolio any longer, due to his current bond market recommendations. Yes, he does recommend the Total Stock Market Index fund as the exclusive stock market position.
I have seen interviews that Bogle did with Morningstar in 2014 where he now says to take 1/3 to 2/3 of the amount that would have been in the total bond market index fund, and put that in a corporate bond fund for extra yield. He feels that the US government bond position in the total bond market index fund is excessive. He feels that the total bond market index needs to be fixed, that the index itself needs to be fixed. And his solution is to put 1/3 to 2/3 of that investment into an investment grade corporate bond fund, either intermediate or short. He seems to favor intermediate, but did also mention short as a possibility.
And in the most recent interview of Bogle that I saw, he stated what his personal bond market investments were, and I believe he only stated two funds, an intermediate investment grade bond fund (Vanguard of course), and a municipal bond fund. He did not even mention the total bond market index fund at all.
I would like to see a new thread/topic opened up discussing Bogle's current bond fund recommendations, so a lot of people could weigh in on this, as I don't think there will be a lot of people commenting on this topic with the current subject.
I think it is a very important topic: exactly what does Bogle recommend for bond market investments.
P.S. I really don't know about Bob Brinker. As far as I'm concerned I found investing nirvana by taking John Bogle's advice. The ultimate in simplicity and it works.[/quote]
++++++++++++++++++++
I agree with a great deal of what you posted. Except the part about Bogle's bond fund recommendations
John Bogle no longer recommends the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund as the exclusive bond position for the average investor. A long time ago he did seem to have that recommendation. So I don't believe that he recommends a two fund portfolio any longer, due to his current bond market recommendations. Yes, he does recommend the Total Stock Market Index fund as the exclusive stock market position.
I have seen interviews that Bogle did with Morningstar in 2014 where he now says to take 1/3 to 2/3 of the amount that would have been in the total bond market index fund, and put that in a corporate bond fund for extra yield. He feels that the US government bond position in the total bond market index fund is excessive. He feels that the total bond market index needs to be fixed, that the index itself needs to be fixed. And his solution is to put 1/3 to 2/3 of that investment into an investment grade corporate bond fund, either intermediate or short. He seems to favor intermediate, but did also mention short as a possibility.
And in the most recent interview of Bogle that I saw, he stated what his personal bond market investments were, and I believe he only stated two funds, an intermediate investment grade bond fund (Vanguard of course), and a municipal bond fund. He did not even mention the total bond market index fund at all.
I would like to see a new thread/topic opened up discussing Bogle's current bond fund recommendations, so a lot of people could weigh in on this, as I don't think there will be a lot of people commenting on this topic with the current subject.
I think it is a very important topic: exactly what does Bogle recommend for bond market investments.
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Hi rjb112rjb112 wrote: I agree with a great deal of what you posted. Except the part about Bogle's bond fund recommendations
John Bogle no longer recommends the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund as the exclusive bond position for the average investor. A long time ago he did seem to have that recommendation. So I don't believe that he recommends a two fund portfolio any longer, due to his current bond market recommendations. Yes, he does recommend the Total Stock Market Index fund as the exclusive stock market position.
I have seen interviews that Bogle did with Morningstar in 2014 where he now says to take 1/3 to 2/3 of the amount that would have been in the total bond market index fund, and put that in a corporate bond fund for extra yield. He feels that the US government bond position in the total bond market index fund is excessive. He feels that the total bond market index needs to be fixed, that the index itself needs to be fixed. And his solution is to put 1/3 to 2/3 of that investment into an investment grade corporate bond fund, either intermediate or short. He seems to favor intermediate, but did also mention short as a possibility.
And in the most recent interview of Bogle that I saw, he stated what his personal bond market investments were, and I believe he only stated two funds, an intermediate investment grade bond fund (Vanguard of course), and a municipal bond fund. He did not even mention the total bond market index fund at all.
I would like to see a new thread/topic opened up discussing Bogle's current bond fund recommendations, so a lot of people could weigh in on this, as I don't think there will be a lot of people commenting on this topic with the current subject.
I think it is a very important topic: exactly what does Bogle recommend for bond market investments.
Good point. You may find this video interesting. I spoke with Vanguard regarding this and if you look at their target date funds and lifestyle funds, they are still using the Vangaurd Total Bond Index Funds along with the Vanguard International Index Funds in their AA.
They said just don't expect the returns of the past but by using that fund they expect it to still do its job as a good diversifier.
Jack still advises people wanting a one fund solution to use the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qg959oYCxU
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
I am pretty young so i follow the aggressive portfolio. I just started following his aggressive in october 2014, and one of the funds he tells us to buy is VFWIX, and since oct. 2014 that fund is down ~3.5%. AKREX is up 15%, and NAESX is up 10%. he also has 50% of the portfolio to VTSMX. I'm just a little frustrated he keeps advising to get VFWIX. Anyone have a clue as to why he might like VFWIX?
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Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
most people think you have 30% plus or minus of the equity portion of your asset allocation in foreign stocks. VFWIX is the foreign version of VTSMX. at some point it will outperform.bigguy8437 wrote:I am pretty young so i follow the aggressive portfolio. I just started following his aggressive in october 2014, and one of the funds he tells us to buy is VFWIX, and since oct. 2014 that fund is down ~3.5%. AKREX is up 15%, and NAESX is up 10%. he also has 50% of the portfolio to VTSMX. I'm just a little frustrated he keeps advising to get VFWIX. Anyone have a clue as to why he might like VFWIX?
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
Vanguard's Target Retirement for someone who is ten years from retirement has somewhere around 68% stocks and 32% in bonds. I will be 52 in June and my goal is to retire in 10 to 12 years. I know Warren Buffett recently advised most folks to be all in equities after you hold enough cash to feel secure, but I rather side with John Bogle and hold bonds for ballast. I personally like the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund which is 60/40. I hold that in my IRA and in my 401K I am 65/35 stocks bonds. I know I will still lose money in a bad market, but I will most likely not feel it as much as an all equity portfolio. I tried that for a short period of time, and I worried too much about a bad correction.end44 wrote:I am 52 and planning to retire in 10-15 years. What is your opinion about Brinker's portfolio?
Akre focus fund 10%
Vanguard small cap 10%
Vanguard dividend growth 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-world 10%
Vanguard International growth 10%
Vanguard total stock market 50%
Thanks for your input.
With ten years left before retirement, I would take a more conservative stance and hold some bonds for ballast.
Now, having said all that, I don't know if you have a great pension and other sources of income in retirement. If that is the case and you could do well if your portfolio goes down 50%, then you may very well be a candidate for an all equity portfolio. John Bogle sometimes says, you should view your social security as part of your bond holdings. If that is the case, I should just hold a 60/40 portfolio for life, which I may very well do.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
Re: Bob Brinker portfolio
You should consider some of the resources (online or books) for gauging your risk tolerance. The first thing a good advisor with do is gauge this tolerance. It doesn't matter what the "right" asset allocation is, if you can't tolerate it and can't sleep nights.
I'm a few years older than you and I'm 50% equities, but I'm closer to retirement than you are. I'm willing to leave some return on the table at this point.
I'm a few years older than you and I'm 50% equities, but I'm closer to retirement than you are. I'm willing to leave some return on the table at this point.