ETF Muni bond allocation

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Greatness
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ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

Hello all,

So, as some may remember (or not), I have been trying to find the right ETFs or funds to go into which pay a steady dividend, monthly if possible. Due to medical conditions and the amount of money she received from inheritance, I need to aim for around a 6% return with monthly payments if possible with a fairly good track record. Here's what I am eyeing:

Blackrock MuniYield Fund, Inc. (MYD)
Blackrock MuniHoldings Fund, Inc. (MHD)
BlackRock New York Municipal Bond Trust (BQH)
Blackrock MuniHoldings New York (MHN)

They've seemed to have weathered the financial storms of 2008 - 2010 okay. As for their performance in a high interest rate environment, they performed pretty nicely as well. The dividends remained steady or increased,and after the crisis, they did recover like the rest of the market. The fact that they are tax free makes it easier to ensure as much as the money goes to her medical expenses as possible. We are hoping she will live at least 20 years comfortably. Hopefully, medically as well. I will most likely also place some of the inheritance in a few Vanguard index funds as well. However, a good portion would probably go in to these, or similar ETFs.
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in_reality
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by in_reality »

How much do you really know about these closed end funds?

Blackrock MuniYield Fund, Inc. (MYD) - 161% bonds 3% cash 64% other (leverage) As of 10/31/2013

The 3/5/2013 Morningstar report states:
The fund does pay an above-average tax-free distribution rate of 6.2% at net asset value and 5.9% at share price, though this may not be sustainable. BlackRock estimates that the fund has underearned the distribution by about 4% in recent months. This is likely a function of bonds being called, but also of the fund's new form of leverage.
I am not familiar with closed-end funds, but wonder if you should rely on this for something like 20 years of medical expenses. The leverage is going to amplify any effects that interest rate changes have ...


I am invested in HYD which is a high-yield muni that yields 5% (when NAV falls it looks like it's yielding more). Depending on the economy though, that is something that could really suffer should those already struggling municipalities struggle more. I don't think it is near safe enough for what you are trying to do.

I don't think you can safely get 6% assured. Heck I would take 6% in the stock market (and maybe that's what we might be seeing going forward).
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Greatness
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

True, nothing is guaranteed in life, however, I am trying to put together a asset allocation where Mom has enough money to pay her bills and not live off of Alpo Dog Food. She was wary on being top heavy in the stock market, and feels more comfortable with bonds. I was thinking of purchasing individual bonds as an option, however, since they only pay twice a year usually, that could be an unnecessary strain on my Mother's finances. I plan to mix it with corp bonds, equities and heavier weight with the tax free munis. Maybe a 70/15/15 with 70% in munis, 15% in corporates, and 15% in the stock market. Vanguard has NY Muni's as well, however, they are only yielding around a 3% dividend. I'm in a tough spot here.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by pradador »

Don't have a good answer but I thought that this research paper by Vanguard might be relevant: Total-return investing: An enduring solution for low yields
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in_reality
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by in_reality »

Greatness wrote: She was wary on being top heavy in the stock market, and feels more comfortable with bonds. ... I'm in a tough spot here.
Well honestly though presenting a leveraged CEF as a "bond fund" is not giving your mother the information she needs to make the right decision.

If you think individual bonds would work better, why don't you just front her the cash for 6 months and then take the payment you know is coming when it arrives or something like that.

I know it's tough but those CEFs don't make sense to me.
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ogd
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by ogd »

Greatness: the low yields are what's available in the market. If it's insufficient, your mother will have to cut down on expenses rather than reaching into these risky leveraged instruments. Someone at the limit of their withdrawal capability is all the more vulnerable to volatility, which the leveraged CEFs have in spades.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by kerplunk »

Blackrock MuniYield Fund, Inc. (MYD) is interesting. Does anyone know more about this? Feels a little too good to be true?
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Greatness
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

Medical expenses are high, I do not have the available funds to front them. I am also married with a kid on the way. I think I have enough on my plate right now to "fund".
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Greatness
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

ogd wrote:Greatness: the low yields are what's available in the market. If it's insufficient, your mother will have to cut down on expenses rather than reaching into these risky leveraged instruments. Someone at the limit of their withdrawal capability is all the more vulnerable to volatility, which the leveraged CEFs have in spades.
Medical bills are what they are. She does't get treatment, well, guess what happens. Obviously, that is not an option.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by RNJ »

Greatness wrote:The fact that they are tax free makes it easier to ensure as much as the money goes to her medical expenses as possible. We are hoping she will live at least 20 years comfortably. Hopefully, medically as well. I will most likely also place some of the inheritance in a few Vanguard index funds as well. However, a good portion would probably go in to these, or similar ETFs.
High risk funds ensure nothing other than high risk. If 6% is what she needs, then what about a SPIA?
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Greatness
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

She has part in an annuity. I was unaware that municipal bonds were high risk.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Longdog »

The fund does pay an above-average tax-free distribution rate of 6.2% at net asset value and 5.9% at share price, though this may not be sustainable. BlackRock estimates that the fund has underearned the distribution by about 4% in recent months. This is likely a function of bonds being called, but also of the fund's new form of leverage.
I wonder if that "distribution rate" is interest plus some principal.
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ogd
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by ogd »

Greatness wrote:
ogd wrote:Greatness: the low yields are what's available in the market. If it's insufficient, your mother will have to cut down on expenses rather than reaching into these risky leveraged instruments. Someone at the limit of their withdrawal capability is all the more vulnerable to volatility, which the leveraged CEFs have in spades.
Medical bills are what they are. She does't get treatment, well, guess what happens. Obviously, that is not an option.
...
She has part in an annuity. I was unaware that municipal bonds were high risk.
Greatness: I am so sorry to hear that, it would break my heart to be in that situation. Please be careful with your mother's money. It's not as much the munis themselves that are risky, although the market is pricing them as such now more than at other times, due to strained state and city finances. It's the specific vehicles that use leverage and choose riskier bonds to provide higher yields who magnify that risk. A series of defaults, survivable by a normal fund, might be disastrous to something like MYD.

In general, return goes hand in hand with risk and there are very few free lunches to be had in the market. When we need immediate availability of money, we prefer less risk rather than more. Please do not overreach.
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Greatness
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

It is what it is. I am doing the best I can. There were several people who tried to attempt to "advise" my mother. Not going to happen. I am just trying to balance things out in nice stable investments. I will help out where I can financially, but I am not Bill Gates. I was also looking at these funds as well:

INY - SPDR Barclays Capital New York Municipal ETF
ITM – Market Vectors Intermediate Municipal ETF
MLN - Market Vectors Long Municipal ETF
MUAA - iShares 2012 S&P AMT-free Municipal Series
MUAB - iShares 2013 S&P AMT-free Municipal Series
MUAC - iShares 2014 S&P AMT-free Municipal Series
MUAD - iShares 2015 S&P AMT-free Municipal Series
MUAE - iShares 2016 S&P AMT-free Municipal Series
MUAF - iShares 2017 S&P AMT-free Municipal Series
MUAG - iShares 2018 AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF
MUB – iShares S&P National Municipal ETF
MUNI - PIMCO Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy ETF
NYF - iShares S&P New York Municipal ETF
PRB – Market Vectors Pre-Refunded Municipal ETF
PFEM - PowerShares Fundamental Emerging Markets Local Debt Portfolio
PVI – PowerShares VRDO Tax-Free Weekly ETF
PWZ – PowerShares Insured California Municipal ETF
PZA - PowerShares Insured National Municipal ETF
PZT - PowerShares Insured New York Municipal ETF
SHM – SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term Municipal ETF
SMB – Market Vectors Short Municipal ETF
SMMU - Pimco Short Term Municipal Bond Strategy Fund
SUB – iShares S&P Short Term National Municipal ETF
TFI - SPDR Barclays Capital Municipal ETF
XMPT - Market Vectors CEF Municipal Income ETF
ZROZ - PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Fund


I am also going to buy some individual G.O Bonds, revenue and tobacco bonds. That should help round things out. Of course, she will have and S & P 500 fund as well.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by ogd »

Greatness: my research into such funds in the past has lead me to TFI and MUB, which I can vouch for, to the degree that my research means anything to you. I hold about 100k of the former and have held the latter for short periods for tax loss harvesting (yes, there were losses last year, but of the good kind -- interest rates rising not defaults).

TFI can sustain a 2.5% tax free payoff. MUB slightly less, as it's slightly shorter.

When you buy or sell, look at the NAV premium / discount and try not to do it if there is a large premium buying or a large discount selling. It's one gotcha of muni ETFs.

I have not considered these funds in the context of must-have withdrawals larger than the dividend amounts. It's possible that it's the one thing that would lead me towards the purchase of individual bonds, most likely zero-coupon Treasuries targeted at each month, although I think I would still prefer a savings account currently, that 1% yield being higher than what you can get for less than 2-3 years out.

You have also not mentioned the state and bracket. I would not consider a state muni fund other than the one you reside in, but your state fund might be very rewarding.

There are many things to consider in the situation you're in, at the limit of withdrawals, but ultimately no magic solutions. It might be the case that a simple two or three fund strategy works best (one savings for a few years out, one intermediate muni or TIPS, one stocks for longer-term growth and inflation). Best of luck, sincerely!
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in_reality
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by in_reality »

Greatness wrote:
Medical bills are what they are. She does't get treatment, well, guess what happens. Obviously, that is not an option.
Yikes. So what happens when the money runs out? Will she qualify for Medicare or some such program? You might think about how she could transition into that. I don't know how you can get the returns you need...
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Greatness
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

NY, and the funds aren't that great. I am going to break it up into Vanguard S & P, some in the Blackrock, some in preferreds, and some in actual bonds. Therefore, it's spread all over the place. If one gets hit temporarily, it will not, hopefully, effect the others. She'll just be using the dividends, not really selling the security. It can go up, down and sideways, we're just concerned about the monthly or quarterly dividend to help pay for expenses. I can get down to 4.5% and still be safe. 2.5% is just too little. It would start to eat into the principle and that's a no no. I like to leave a 1% buffer.

Hopefully, the money will not run out.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by abuss368 »

In general bonds are for safety and income. Bond returns are a result of credit and term. Higher yield usually always means higher risk.

State specific tax exempt bond funds such as Pennsylvania, California, New York, New Jersey, etc. carry additional risk from less diversification. A tax exempt fund with all states provides higher diversification.

Individual bonds are not diversified and typically higher costs.

Long term bond funds have a higher "duration". This means the funds NAV will increase or decrease more for each 1% change in interest rates. Short term bond funds are not paying much in cash flow. Intermediate term bonds funds have often been called the sweat spot.

Vanguard offers many excellent tax exempt bonds funds that are low cost, diversified, effective, and simple.

I would consider looking into the Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund. This fund has a higher yield and monthly cash flow from dividends. In fact, Jack Bogle invests his portfolio in this very fund.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by kerplunk »

Making important investment decisions while under a tremendous amount of stress rarely ends well.

I don't have a perfect answer for you at this point, but it would help if you could provide more information about your mom's portfolio using this outline: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... f=1&t=6212

There are a number of missing factors that could help us recommend a better solution than risky or low-yield bond ETFs.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by abuss368 »

Remember in terms of your mom: sometimes it is more important to protect what we have than to take risks in the attempt to get more.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by RNJ »

Greatness wrote:NY, and the funds aren't that great. I am going to break it up into Vanguard S & P, some in the Blackrock, some in preferreds, and some in actual bonds. Therefore, it's spread all over the place. If one gets hit temporarily, it will not, hopefully, effect the others. She'll just be using the dividends, not really selling the security. It can go up, down and sideways, we're just concerned about the monthly or quarterly dividend to help pay for expenses. I can get down to 4.5% and still be safe. 2.5% is just too little. It would start to eat into the principle and that's a no no. I like to leave a 1% buffer.

Hopefully, the money will not run out.
I apologize for my above post being so abrupt. As was stated above (and as I'm sure you know), bond yield is a way of pricing credit and or duration risk. So higher yields=higher risk. That said, and if you are against further annuitization, would it be possible to re-examine your attitude towards the portfolio (e.g., why is using principle a "no-no", why must the return come in the form of dividends as opposed to capital gains)? You night be able to construct a simpler, lower risk portfolio by taking a "total return" approach along with some flexibility with respect to principle.

Good luck and hang in there - its not an easy spot to be in.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by pradador »

RNJ wrote:I apologize for my above post being so abrupt. As was stated above (and as I'm sure you know), bond yield is a way of pricing credit and or duration risk. So higher yields=higher risk. That said, and if you are against further annuitization, would it be possible to re-examine your attitude towards the portfolio (e.g., why is using principle a "no-no", why must the return come in the form of dividends as opposed to capital gains)? You night be able to construct a simpler, lower risk portfolio by taking a "total return" approach along with some flexibility with respect to principle.
Here's some other good Vanguard articles on Total Return vs Income investing:

Spending from your portfolio: Total return versus income (Video)
Spending From a Portfolio: Implications of a Total-Return Approach Versus an Income Approach for Taxable Investors
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by grabiner »

Greatness wrote:NY, and the funds aren't that great. I am going to break it up into Vanguard S & P, some in the Blackrock, some in preferreds, and some in actual bonds.
Preferred stock is a poor choice for a taxable investor, because the dividends are non-qualified. (It is also significantly riskier than a bond investment, both because preferred stock has an infinite maturity and because corporations can choose to suspend their preferred-stock dividends.)

Also, you don't gain much diversification benefit holding different funds with the same type of bonds, or a muni fund and an individual muni bond. If muni rates rise, all muni bonds and funds that hold them will lose value (and make up the lost value in higher yields if you hold them long enough, unless they default).
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

pradador wrote:
RNJ wrote:I apologize for my above post being so abrupt. As was stated above (and as I'm sure you know), bond yield is a way of pricing credit and or duration risk. So higher yields=higher risk. That said, and if you are against further annuitization, would it be possible to re-examine your attitude towards the portfolio (e.g., why is using principle a "no-no", why must the return come in the form of dividends as opposed to capital gains)? You night be able to construct a simpler, lower risk portfolio by taking a "total return" approach along with some flexibility with respect to principle.
Here's some other good Vanguard articles on Total Return vs Income investing:

Spending from your portfolio: Total return versus income (Video)
Spending From a Portfolio: Implications of a Total-Return Approach Versus an Income Approach for Taxable Investors
I watched the video, thank you for sharing. However, if one uses the principle, what happens when you run out of $$$ after spending all the money from the total return on the account?
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Greatness
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

grabiner wrote:
Greatness wrote:NY, and the funds aren't that great. I am going to break it up into Vanguard S & P, some in the Blackrock, some in preferreds, and some in actual bonds.
Preferred stock is a poor choice for a taxable investor, because the dividends are non-qualified. (It is also significantly riskier than a bond investment, both because preferred stock has an infinite maturity and because corporations can choose to suspend their preferred-stock dividends.)

Also, you don't gain much diversification benefit holding different funds with the same type of bonds, or a muni fund and an individual muni bond. If muni rates rise, all muni bonds and funds that hold them will lose value (and make up the lost value in higher yields if you hold them long enough, unless they default).
Preferred stock in terms of blue chip companies, not small crappy companies. Thinking Exxon, Petrobras, Barclays, Etc. I can't see companies like this going under or suspending their stocks.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by grabiner »

Greatness wrote:
grabiner wrote:
Greatness wrote:NY, and the funds aren't that great. I am going to break it up into Vanguard S & P, some in the Blackrock, some in preferreds, and some in actual bonds.
Preferred stock is a poor choice for a taxable investor, because the dividends are non-qualified. (It is also significantly riskier than a bond investment, both because preferred stock has an infinite maturity and because corporations can choose to suspend their preferred-stock dividends.)
Preferred stock in terms of blue chip companies, not small crappy companies. Thinking Exxon, Petrobras, Barclays, Etc. I can't see companies like this going under or suspending their stocks.
Preferred stock has a different legal meaning; it is a stock with a fixed dividend, which must be paid before the common stock can pay any dividend (thus "preferred"). I thought you wanted these stocks because they do have high yields, and needed to explain the disadvantages.

Blue chip stocks are what you already hold in the S&P 500; they may be good investments, but they are stocks, and when the stock market crashes, you'll lose a big piece of your investment and dividends may be cut. (And blue chip stocks can get into trouble as well; consider GM, Bear Stearns, AT&T, and BP; a diversified portfolio reduces the risk of any one stock getting into trouble.)
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by RNJ »

Greatness wrote:
pradador wrote:
RNJ wrote:I apologize for my above post being so abrupt. As was stated above (and as I'm sure you know), bond yield is a way of pricing credit and or duration risk. So higher yields=higher risk. That said, and if you are against further annuitization, would it be possible to re-examine your attitude towards the portfolio (e.g., why is using principle a "no-no", why must the return come in the form of dividends as opposed to capital gains)? You night be able to construct a simpler, lower risk portfolio by taking a "total return" approach along with some flexibility with respect to principle.
Here's some other good Vanguard articles on Total Return vs Income investing:

Spending from your portfolio: Total return versus income (Video)
Spending From a Portfolio: Implications of a Total-Return Approach Versus an Income Approach for Taxable Investors
I watched the video, thank you for sharing. However, if one uses the principle, what happens when you run out of $$$ after spending all the money from the total return on the account?
Not sure what you mean by this, but a couple of thoughts. What you are after (a 6% return with monthly payments) might be achievable - at least in theory - with leveraged bond funds, preferred stocks, etc., but you are taking on substantial equity-like risk with principle. What you might consider is taking equity-like risk with . . . equities. If you are ok with principle fluctuation (and you must be, given the investments you've cited), why not go something like 40/60 (or some other number) stock bond split. Run some Monte Carlo simulations and see what you get with various withdrawal rates and time horizons. Your monthly payout will come in the form of dividend payouts and the sale of (hopefully appreciated) shares. Without annuitizing, 6% is a very tough number to make without taking substantial risk. With a stock/bond split, you will have a better handle - at least conceptually - on the variables in the equation.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by FillorKill »

A tax efficiency note: some Preferred issues’ distributions are QDI / DRD eligible. The relevant difference is between trust preferred (traditional trust preferred / enhanced trust preferred) and traditional preferred stock.

Traditional Trust Preferred was usually issued by banks for long (30 year) but not perpetual terms, no QDI / DRD treatment. There are also Enhanced Trust Preferred (variation on the traditional that can have numerous other features beneficial to the issuer and appealing to credit rating agencies - like further extended interest deferral options, partial deferred interest payment relief in bankruptcy, etc.) and would be junior to traditional trust preferred in liquidation preference. Then there’s the traditional preferred; perpetual term; subordinate to all debt (including any variation of trust preferred) in the capital structure and senior to common stock. Typically QDI and DRD treatment applies as the distributions are paid after tax.

Banks issued plenty of the trust preferred because it was considered T1 capital instead of debt for regulatory purposes and they could deduct the dividend payment as interest expense (debt treatment for tax purposes). A uniquely advantageous structure for the banks to access capital… Post financial crisis legislation removes the Tier 1 capital status of trust preferred for the big banks so the incentive for them to issue it doesn’t really exist anymore as the legislation is implemented.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by pradador »

RNJ wrote:Not sure what you mean by this, but a couple of thoughts. What you are after (a 6% return with monthly payments) might be achievable - at least in theory - with leveraged bond funds, preferred stocks, etc., but you are taking on substantial equity-like risk with principle. What you might consider is taking equity-like risk with . . . equities. If you are ok with principle fluctuation (and you must be, given the investments you've cited), why not go something like 40/60 (or some other number) stock bond split. Run some Monte Carlo simulations and see what you get with various withdrawal rates and time horizons. Your monthly payout will come in the form of dividend payouts and the sale of (hopefully appreciated) shares. Without annuitizing, 6% is a very tough number to make without taking substantial risk. With a stock/bond split, you will have a better handle - at least conceptually - on the variables in the equation.
Looking at its history (2008) for example, BlackRock MuniYield Common (MYD) sounds like a bond but it really behaves a lot like a stock.

Image

Longer term view (2008-2014) also suggests a volatile instrument:

Image
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by Greatness »

The charts, do not seem to factor in the monthly dividends from SPY and MYD.
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Re: ETF Muni bond allocation

Post by RNJ »

Greatness wrote:The charts, do not seem to factor in the monthly dividends from SPY and MYD.
Try entering VG Total Stock Mkt, Adm (VTSAX), Wellesley, VG Tax Managed Balanced, or your own concoction. Use a mutual fund rather than an ETF for your first/primary search, then add the ETFs. That will provide you with a chart displaying total return. Unfortunately, I can't get the image to post.

Good luck.
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