Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Have $100k in after tax $ in S&P 500.
Not going to rehash everything.
my background and thread asking about speculating on sectors based on underperformance:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1&t=129950
that thread gave me a new idea.
instead of trying to catch a falling knife, i'm going to ride the wave.
from vanguards etf list:
Consumer Discretionary, healthcare, and Industrials were #1,2, and 3 for 2013.
sold 50k of the S&P500 fund and bought Healthcare. it's up YTD compared to the other 2.
Going to leave the other $50k in the S&P500 (for now )
Not going to rehash everything.
my background and thread asking about speculating on sectors based on underperformance:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1&t=129950
that thread gave me a new idea.
instead of trying to catch a falling knife, i'm going to ride the wave.
from vanguards etf list:
Consumer Discretionary, healthcare, and Industrials were #1,2, and 3 for 2013.
sold 50k of the S&P500 fund and bought Healthcare. it's up YTD compared to the other 2.
Going to leave the other $50k in the S&P500 (for now )
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
But, but, but, …
I explicitly recommended that you buy VWO which went up about 2% yesterday.
I explicitly recommended that you buy VWO which went up about 2% yesterday.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Total health spending is on the decline, and healthcare jobs actually went down this month for the first time in a long, long time.
Already priced in, of course, but entirely possible we were at the peak of a long secular inverted U-shaped healthcare spending trend. And that's before the PPACA's Medicare spending cuts (they're not crude cuts but rather efficiency-driven, but still will cut the total amount of $ unless Congress intervenes, which they've been ever-more reluctant to do with the doc fix).
In other words, why do you think you know more than the market?
Already priced in, of course, but entirely possible we were at the peak of a long secular inverted U-shaped healthcare spending trend. And that's before the PPACA's Medicare spending cuts (they're not crude cuts but rather efficiency-driven, but still will cut the total amount of $ unless Congress intervenes, which they've been ever-more reluctant to do with the doc fix).
In other words, why do you think you know more than the market?
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Phew. VWO purchase (5% according to the IPS) cleared two days ago. That'll net me at least another $10.livesoft wrote:But, but, but, …
I explicitly recommended that you buy VWO which went up about 2% yesterday.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Em and Reits are the 2 sectors that I was contemplating in my link.livesoft wrote:But, but, but, …
I explicitly recommended that you buy VWO which went up about 2% yesterday.
chickened out after reading all the comments.
and of course both em (VWO) and reits (vnq) are way up this year compared to the rest of the market.
you still like vwo at the current price?
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Have you read any healthcare industry publications in the last four years? No one in the industry is exactly bullish. Massive restructuring and repricing is occurring. There will be winners and losers. How do you know which ones you are buying? I guess if you have $50,000 to gamble with, it could be exciting- if you enjoy that kind of thing.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Of course not. Buy on the RBD.Gambler wrote:you still like vwo at the current price?
I will probably sell my recent purchase if it goes up more since that purchase made me slightly overweighted in EM and my IPS calls for rebalancing at specific rebalancing bands.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
I have held a Healthcare sector fund for about twenty years now and as I have observed over time all sectors fall in and out of favor,the last year or so reminds me of the healthcare outperformance of the early nineties,who knows what sector will be in favor this year,,,buy and hold hold hold is so important
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Do what you like, but I am going to warn you seriously about the danger of slogans. Specifically, the danger of maintaining some little private stock of maxims and slogans, all mutually contradictory, that you can use in place of thought--a nice little baby rattle you can hand to your left brain to play with to distract it from what the right brain is doing...Gambler wrote:...that thread gave me a new idea. instead of trying to catch a falling knife, i'm going to ride the wave....
Every time you find yourself "thinking" something like "I'm going to ride the wave" you should stop yourself and say, "Hey! That's not thinking." You call it an "idea:" It is not an "idea."
It's just too easy to find a slogan to confirm anything you feel like doing.
Want to sell something that's falling? "Don't fight the market." "Don't try to catch a falling knife." "Don't double down on your bad bets." "Cut your losses and let your profits run."
Want to buy something that's falling? "Buy low, sell high." "Don't you like to buy things when they are on sale?" "This is 'value investing.'" "It's opportunistic rebalancing."
Want to sell something that's rising? "Buy low, sell high." "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit." "I think I'll take something off the table." "What goes up must come down."
Want to buy something that's rising? "Cut your losses and let your profits run." "You're playing with house money now." "The trend is your friend." "This is 'momentum investing.'"
Beware of the comfort factor of fitting whatever you are doing with a nice, wise-sounding, confirmatory slogan.
(By the way... I dunno if all brokers do it or if they still do it... ages ago, I eventually cottoned on that what my Merrill Lynch broker was doing was using this sort of slogan to induce confirmation bias and reward me by saying I was smart, whatever I did--as long as I did something. If I didn't make any trades he would pester me with things designed to induce greed or fear. If I engaged in conversation, he would sort of provide alternatives I could choose from, flattering me by asking my opinion on what I thought was going to happen... and then, whatever I seemed to be leaning toward doing, he would encourage me by fitting it to some confirmatory slogan, like "why not? you're playing with house money now.")
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
I think OP is messing around and not really doing any of this. It is just too arbitrary and the screen name is a bit of a tipoff.
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Personally I think Healthcare is a pretty safe bet. There are a lot of boomers retiring who will have increasing needs.
I don't understand why more people don't tilt toward this sector; the fund isn't mentioned that much around here.
I don't understand why more people don't tilt toward this sector; the fund isn't mentioned that much around here.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
I think "pretty safe bet" is an oxymoron.InvestorNewb wrote:Personally I think Healthcare is a pretty safe bet. There are a lot of boomers retiring who will have increasing needs.
I don't understand why more people don't tilt toward this sector; the fund isn't mentioned that much around here.
Steve |
Semper Fi
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Hmmm. I think I only agree with this one for your personal decision, Livesoft. For Gambler, he should logically buy VWO at the current market price, assuming that he reforms his ways and decides to hold for the long term (an important caveat).livesoft wrote:Of course not. Buy on the RBD.Gambler wrote:you still like vwo at the current price?
I will probably sell my recent purchase if it goes up more since that purchase made me slightly overweighted in EM and my IPS calls for rebalancing at specific rebalancing bands.
As I read it, Gambler's current portfolio is 50% S&P 500, 50% VHT. That portfolio needs significant more fixing than just this one thing, but let's consider the one change of selling a small amount of either (preferably VHT) and buying VWO instead. This would increase the diversification of his portfolio. That's a net positive, even if it's not anywhere close to what he could achieve though better choices in his investments. If his holding period is long enough, then today's known market price is as good as waiting around for some future lower market price that may never come.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
rbd= really bad day?livesoft wrote:Of course not. Buy on the RBD.Gambler wrote:you still like vwo at the current price?
I will probably sell my recent purchase if it goes up more since that purchase made me slightly overweighted in EM and my IPS calls for rebalancing at specific rebalancing bands.
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
this 100k is after tax $.bobbun wrote:Hmmm. I think I only agree with this one for your personal decision, Livesoft. For Gambler, he should logically buy VWO at the current market price, assuming that he reforms his ways and decides to hold for the long term (an important caveat).livesoft wrote:Of course not. Buy on the RBD.Gambler wrote:you still like vwo at the current price?
I will probably sell my recent purchase if it goes up more since that purchase made me slightly overweighted in EM and my IPS calls for rebalancing at specific rebalancing bands.
As I read it, Gambler's current portfolio is 50% S&P 500, 50% VHT. That portfolio needs significant more fixing than just this one thing, but let's consider the one change of selling a small amount of either (preferably VHT) and buying VWO instead. This would increase the diversification of his portfolio. That's a net positive, even if it's not anywhere close to what he could achieve though better choices in his investments. If his holding period is long enough, then today's known market price is as good as waiting around for some future lower market price that may never come.
read the link in my OP. it lists my AA in my retirement accts
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
It's good to hear you're not doing this with your entire portfolio. I overlooked that. The same logic applies, though, just not quite to such an extreme degree. Your taxable investments are still part of your asset allocation.Gambler wrote: this 100k is after tax $.
read the link in my OP. it lists my AA in my retirement accts
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Great post.nisiprius wrote:Do what you like, but I am going to warn you seriously about the danger of slogans. Specifically, the danger of maintaining some little private stock of maxims and slogans, all mutually contradictory, that you can use in place of thought--a nice little baby rattle you can hand to your left brain to play with to distract it from what the right brain is doing...Gambler wrote:...that thread gave me a new idea. instead of trying to catch a falling knife, i'm going to ride the wave....
Every time you find yourself "thinking" something like "I'm going to ride the wave" you should stop yourself and say, "Hey! That's not thinking." You call it an "idea:" It is not an "idea."
It's just too easy to find a slogan to confirm anything you feel like doing.
Want to sell something that's falling? "Don't fight the market." "Don't try to catch a falling knife." "Don't double down on your bad bets." "Cut your losses and let your profits run."
Want to buy something that's falling? "Buy low, sell high." "Don't you like to buy things when they are on sale?" "This is 'value investing.'" "It's opportunistic rebalancing."
Want to sell something that's rising? "Buy low, sell high." "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit." "I think I'll take something off the table." "What goes up must come down."
Want to buy something that's rising? "Cut your losses and let your profits run." "You're playing with house money now." "The trend is your friend." "This is 'momentum investing.'"
Beware of the comfort factor of fitting whatever you are doing with a nice, wise-sounding, confirmatory slogan.
(By the way... I dunno if all brokers do it or if they still do it... ages ago, I eventually cottoned on that what my Merrill Lynch broker was doing was using this sort of slogan to induce confirmation bias and reward me by saying I was smart, whatever I did--as long as I did something. If I didn't make any trades he would pester me with things designed to induce greed or fear. If I engaged in conversation, he would sort of provide alternatives I could choose from, flattering me by asking my opinion on what I thought was going to happen... and then, whatever I seemed to be leaning toward doing, he would encourage me by fitting it to some confirmatory slogan, like "why not? you're playing with house money now.")
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Gambler, I guess you can invest any way you choose, but if you are really considering a Boglehead approach, you're way off.
Paul
Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
What information do you have that makes you think healthcare is going to outperform?
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Among the problems I have with sector investing, is the concentration. VHT has nearly half it's holdings in the top ten stocks, and more than 10% in the single top holding. Even combined 50/50 with a good market index fund that is some heavy concentration. Having more than 5% in a single security or issuer (other than U.S. government guaranteed securities) is something that concerns me in my investments. When your eggs are all in one basket, you need to "Watch that basket!" .
I'm not sure how you came to choose this sector, but health care has been a good place to be the past couple decades, I know I have some reservations going forward. The U.S. as a nation spends a very large percentage of our wealth on health care http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.TOTL.ZS . It's a topic that's got a lot of attention the past few years, and I'm sure there is a lot more to come. Over time, it's grown at a rate considerably faster than other parts of the economy. Good for investors in the past, but I just don't see how health care can keep growing at that rate going forward (not that it won't grow, but difficult to keep up the rate relative to other areas). If it keeps growing faster than other areas it would eventually leave us as a nation with nothing to spend on other necessities. Good luck with your investment (? bet ?) but be careful.
I'm not sure how you came to choose this sector, but health care has been a good place to be the past couple decades, I know I have some reservations going forward. The U.S. as a nation spends a very large percentage of our wealth on health care http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.TOTL.ZS . It's a topic that's got a lot of attention the past few years, and I'm sure there is a lot more to come. Over time, it's grown at a rate considerably faster than other parts of the economy. Good for investors in the past, but I just don't see how health care can keep growing at that rate going forward (not that it won't grow, but difficult to keep up the rate relative to other areas). If it keeps growing faster than other areas it would eventually leave us as a nation with nothing to spend on other necessities. Good luck with your investment (? bet ?) but be careful.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Waste of time and money. My portfolio is as efficient as I know how to make it. Why waste expected returns on hunches or gut feelings? I rather gamble at the craps table, not the stock market. I believe my odds are actually better there.
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
How long until you change your mind and get the next "idea"? If it looks wrong in 4 months will you just bail and move onto the next one?Gambler wrote: that thread gave me a new idea.
instead of trying to catch a falling knife, i'm going to ride the wave.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
After reading his other post about EM and REITs, I'll just say:Calm Man wrote:I think OP is messing around and not really doing any of this. It is just too arbitrary and the screen name is a bit of a tipoff.
+1.
Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
nisiprius wrote:Gambler wrote: but I am going to warn you seriously about the danger of slogans. Specifically, the danger of maintaining some little private stock of maxims and slogans, all mutually contradictory, that you can use in place of thought--a nice little baby rattle you can hand to your left brain to play with to distract it from what the right brain is doing...
This was just so enjoyable to read. Brilliant writing, just brilliant.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
These techniques are described by John Rothchild in his book "A Fool and His Money" written in 1988.nisiprius wrote:(By the way... I dunno if all brokers do it or if they still do it... ages ago, I eventually cottoned on that what my Merrill Lynch broker was doing was using this sort of slogan to induce confirmation bias and reward me by saying I was smart, whatever I did--as long as I did something. If I didn't make any trades he would pester me with things designed to induce greed or fear. If I engaged in conversation, he would sort of provide alternatives I could choose from, flattering me by asking my opinion on what I thought was going to happen... and then, whatever I seemed to be leaning toward doing, he would encourage me by fitting it to some confirmatory slogan, like "why not? you're playing with house money now.")
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Wow! More power to you. I would not feel comfortable doing it, but if you are aware of the risks and it passes the sleep test, then do not let anyone here hold you back. With such a concentrated position, if it rides a good wave, you will be smiling!
The most concentration we have is REITs, but they are in the context of Total Stock and Total International funds.
A lot of the seriously money in this country and around the world was from real estate and very concentrated investments.
The most concentration we have is REITs, but they are in the context of Total Stock and Total International funds.
A lot of the seriously money in this country and around the world was from real estate and very concentrated investments.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
I agree with you. 20% of my IRA is in healthcare (PRHSX), and I have some play money in XLV.InvestorNewb wrote:Personally I think Healthcare is a pretty safe bet. There are a lot of boomers retiring who will have increasing needs.
I don't understand why more people don't tilt toward this sector; the fund isn't mentioned that much around here.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
I am an investor and not a gambler. What I want to own are sets of cash flows, represented by ownership of both stocks and bonds. I want to own the cash flows real estate as represented by REITs. I also want to own assets which are held by the companies of which I own shares directly or through funds. And I want to own cash flows and assets for long periods of time. It is a participation in the productive capacity of the world economy. It is not putting $100 on the fifth horse in the third race.
So if one wants to gamble, go ahead. That is not what I do.
So if one wants to gamble, go ahead. That is not what I do.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Great post! I have been writing more and more about cash flows. The older I get, the more I realize cash flow (i.e. dividends, interest, capital gains, etc.) is most important. I like seeing the cash flow from the Total US and International stock funds, the US and International REIT funds, and the Total Bond and Tax Exempt Bond funds. This will fund retirement!nedsaid wrote:I am an investor and not a gambler. What I want to own are sets of cash flows, represented by ownership of both stocks and bonds. I want to own the cash flows real estate as represented by REITs. I also want to own assets which are held by the companies of which I own shares directly or through funds. And I want to own cash flows and assets for long periods of time. It is a participation in the productive capacity of the world economy. It is not putting $100 on the fifth horse in the third race.
So if one wants to gamble, go ahead. That is not what I do.
Cash flow has been the one of the "things" holding me back with TIPS! There is minimal or infrequent cash flow. The Vanguard website notes that the dividends can fluctuate. I like seeing the monthly dividends on the bond fund accrue and then pay out on the last day of the month!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
obamacareJohn3754 wrote:What information do you have that makes you think healthcare is going to outperform?
forced health insurance else pay an IRS penalty.
penalty increases as years go buy.
in other words, since more people have healthcare, more people are going to use it.
thus more spending in the healthcare sector.
going to hold this till 3months b4 the next presidential election.
[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
prhsx is killing vht for the past few years. but morningstar classifies them differently.dgdevil wrote:I agree with you. 20% of my IRA is in healthcare (PRHSX), and I have some play money in XLV.InvestorNewb wrote:Personally I think Healthcare is a pretty safe bet. There are a lot of boomers retiring who will have increasing needs.
I don't understand why more people don't tilt toward this sector; the fund isn't mentioned that much around here.
guess actively managed (.7%) vs passive (.14%)??
Morningstar says some key people have left prhsx? that made me shy away from it.
didn't even look at xlv spydr
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
But, but can I still say the one about a fool and his money?Woodshark wrote:nisiprius wrote:Gambler wrote: but I am going to warn you seriously about the danger of slogans. Specifically, the danger of maintaining some little private stock of maxims and slogans, all mutually contradictory, that you can use in place of thought--a nice little baby rattle you can hand to your left brain to play with to distract it from what the right brain is doing...
This was just so enjoyable to read. Brilliant writing, just brilliant.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Gambler - Clearly you are politically wary. In which case I have 3 words to make you shiver - mid term elections. Check the history.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
More people insured does not necessarily equate to more spending. I work in healthcare and I can tell you first hand that there are massive spending cuts going on right now, lots of hospitals are going under, and much of the industry is downsizing. The focus is currently to significantly reduce spending in healthcare not increase it.Gambler wrote:obamacare
forced health insurance else pay an IRS penalty.
penalty increases as years go buy.
in other words, since more people have healthcare, more people are going to use it.
thus more spending in the healthcare sector.
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
+1John3754 wrote:More people insured does not necessarily equate to more spending. I work in healthcare and I can tell you first hand that there are massive spending cuts going on right now, lots of hospitals are going under, and much of the industry is downsizing. The focus is currently to significantly reduce spending in healthcare not increase it.Gambler wrote:obamacare
forced health insurance else pay an IRS penalty.
penalty increases as years go buy.
in other words, since more people have healthcare, more people are going to use it.
thus more spending in the healthcare sector.
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Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
As long as you truly understand that your use of the word "bet" in the title is 100% accurate as a description of what you did, I see no issue with it. It is a pure gamble with no empirical evidence to support the move, and lots of empirical evidence to suggest that this will end poorly for you. Good luck.
Stay the course. If you can't resist greed, and fear is proven to be 2x as strong, you are doomed as an investor.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Abuss368, before you get carried away with my brilliance, I have to admit this came from Warren Buffett.
I read this somewhere and it revolutionized and greatly clarified my thinking. Really businesses, at least the profitable ones, are sets of cash flows. Their value is derived by the amount of the cash flows they produce and from how fast the businesses can increase those cash flows. A secondary factor are the physical assets held by these businesses.
So a tip of the hat to Mr. Buffett who has taught all of us a lot about investing.
I read this somewhere and it revolutionized and greatly clarified my thinking. Really businesses, at least the profitable ones, are sets of cash flows. Their value is derived by the amount of the cash flows they produce and from how fast the businesses can increase those cash flows. A secondary factor are the physical assets held by these businesses.
So a tip of the hat to Mr. Buffett who has taught all of us a lot about investing.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
When I talk about cash flows in a business, I am talking about earnings. Some of that might be distributed to the investor in dividends. Presumably, what cash that is retained by the company should over time increase the value of the company. That is if the company uses the retained cash wisely. So a big part of the benefit to an investor of cash flow from a business you should eventually see from capital appreciation and not dividends. (But yes, I love dividends).
Of course investors get 100% of the cash flows generated from bonds (less fund expenses).
Of course investors get 100% of the cash flows generated from bonds (less fund expenses).
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Do you have any idea how overbought healthcare is at this time ? If you do this you`re performance chasing and it`s been proven to have the odds so strongly against you. Momentum is a wonderful thing if you get out in time. No one has done it consistently throughout the ages.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Please stay on topic, which is the OP's $50k investment. Politics and opinions of the health care law are off-topic.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Vanguard's Healthcare Fund is what ultimately led us to the Bogleheads on the Morningstar Forum. At the time, without knowing it, we had "invested" in performance chasing for at least 15 years and had approximately 90% of a reasonably significant portfolio in Healthcare. We were very fortunate and learned of this forum, have diversified and continue to have some invested in the Healthcare, Admiral, fund. We are not sure whether it is a conscious choice to overweight that sector or just an emotional investment, but it has served us well. I only mention this to point out that there are many of us who are very thankful for this forum who still have much to inculcate before being 100% Bogleheads. Our thanks for all the advice, even that currently not followed ( ), is sincere.
Tim
Tim
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
wow.. you would have made $$$$$$$ if you had 90% of your portfolio in PRHSX the past 5 yrs.Nowizard wrote:Vanguard's Healthcare Fund is what ultimately led us to the Bogleheads on the Morningstar Forum. At the time, without knowing it, we had "invested" in performance chasing for at least 15 years and had approximately 90% of a reasonably significant portfolio in Healthcare. We were very fortunate and learned of this forum, have diversified and continue to have some invested in the Healthcare, Admiral, fund. We are not sure whether it is a conscious choice to overweight that sector or just an emotional investment, but it has served us well. I only mention this to point out that there are many of us who are very thankful for this forum who still have much to inculcate before being 100% Bogleheads. Our thanks for all the advice, even that currently not followed ( ), is sincere.
Tim
it avg 30%/yr for 5yrs
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
I thought this was a Boggleheads forum. I've been to Vegas and it's not pretty...
Keep It Simple
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
It`s a waste of time reading and responding to Gambler`s words and besides it is most probably not true in my opinion.. It`s the opposite of this sites value to us. I really don`t care if this person BET $ 1,000,000. I learn absolutely nothing from this person and will waste no more time reading it.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Just wondering if OP stayed the course through the recent healthcare dip and still has his $50k bet? The sector seems to be on fire recently, with PRHSX up 3.5% today.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Also, the ACA caps the profit margins of insurers - at least 80% of premiums must be paid for care.John3754 wrote: More people insured does not necessarily equate to more spending. I work in healthcare and I can tell you first hand that there are massive spending cuts going on right now, lots of hospitals are going under, and much of the industry is downsizing. The focus is currently to significantly reduce spending in healthcare not increase it.
Of course, the amount charged by providers, drug manufacturers, etc. is not limited, except by the ability of insurers and insured to pay.
But the US already has the highest proportion of GDP spent on healthcare of all countries in the world. It is difficult to see how that can be sustained in the long term.
This is not to say that the OP's investment in healthcare is necessarily bad, only that I don't see the case for long-term outperformance of this sector.
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
yup.dgdevil wrote:Just wondering if OP stayed the course through the recent healthcare dip and still has his $50k bet? The sector seems to be on fire recently, with PRHSX up 3.5% today.
after reaching it's high of ~$66 ealier this month, I was going to sell to buy REITs but thought they were expensive.
wonder what caused the huge spike?
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
Just a guess, but Biogen up 11% on strong financials:Gambler wrote:yup.dgdevil wrote:Just wondering if OP stayed the course through the recent healthcare dip and still has his $50k bet? The sector seems to be on fire recently, with PRHSX up 3.5% today.
after reaching it's high of ~$66 ealier this month, I was going to sell to buy REITs but thought they were expensive.
wonder what caused the huge spike?
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... _wsjlatest
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
thx. looks like my gamble is paying off (so far) altho not as good as REITs.dgdevil wrote:Just a guess, but Biogen up 11% on strong financials:Gambler wrote:yup.dgdevil wrote:Just wondering if OP stayed the course through the recent healthcare dip and still has his $50k bet? The sector seems to be on fire recently, with PRHSX up 3.5% today.
after reaching it's high of ~$66 ealier this month, I was going to sell to buy REITs but thought they were expensive.
wonder what caused the huge spike?
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... _wsjlatest
should have sold the other $50k to go from s&p500 to reits.
"Always be thankful for what you have no matter how much or how little" -EternalOptimist
Re: Made a $50k bet on Healthcare
And this is why winning a gamble is often worse in the long run than losing. The tendency is often to think "if I had only bet more", and next time you have a "sure thing" you bet the farm. It's the road to sadness.Gambler wrote:
should have sold the other $50k to go from s&p500 to reits.