Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
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Last edited by Fallible on Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
The small cap value thing is something I wonder about. My portfolio is pretty much "set" and since it's taxable with large cap gains (as I tax loss harvested in 2009), I really can't do it without a huge cost. So I won't. But I've wondered about it and if it's not just another "Dogs of the Dow" type thing that works until I do it. I think most of what has come to be "groupthink" here is good math, perhaps science, and undeniable observations of what has worked, what hasn't worked, and what is just obvious reality. But since someone mentioned SCV, I agree that perhaps this is something that won't outperform now that everyone knows about it.
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Yes, lots of group-think here. It makes me not come on as often. People can turn anything into a religion.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
There may be group-think within some virtual cliques within the forum, but all of these cliques post and exchange opinions.
In my opinion, the only truly dangerous group-think is the kind where you literally do not even know about the existence of dissenting opinions, and are confined within a bubble where it appears that "everyone" agrees on something.
"Tune out the noise" could be dangerous in this regard, but not unless one really succeeds in tuning it out completely.
Even "stay the course" does not go unchallenged here, as witness any number of current threads.
It is probably true that those of us who have decided for themselves to stay the course do come here to reassure themselves that others are doing the same thing, and to go someplace where they will hear confirmation of their views--come here to hear what we want to hear.
However, advisors frequently suggest that one of the ways advisors earn their keep is by coaching investors to stay the course, so I see no harm in exposing myself to a little of that--just as I try to control my weight by making sure my home environment contains plenty of moist, bulky fresh fruits and vegetables and not too much in the way of foods that induce "carbohydrate lust."
In my opinion, the only truly dangerous group-think is the kind where you literally do not even know about the existence of dissenting opinions, and are confined within a bubble where it appears that "everyone" agrees on something.
"Tune out the noise" could be dangerous in this regard, but not unless one really succeeds in tuning it out completely.
Even "stay the course" does not go unchallenged here, as witness any number of current threads.
It is probably true that those of us who have decided for themselves to stay the course do come here to reassure themselves that others are doing the same thing, and to go someplace where they will hear confirmation of their views--come here to hear what we want to hear.
However, advisors frequently suggest that one of the ways advisors earn their keep is by coaching investors to stay the course, so I see no harm in exposing myself to a little of that--just as I try to control my weight by making sure my home environment contains plenty of moist, bulky fresh fruits and vegetables and not too much in the way of foods that induce "carbohydrate lust."
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Let me just say right now that I have a modest chunk of $$$ in a High-Yield Bond Fund, thus taking risk on the bond side of my portfolio in addition to the stock side.
So there...
So there...
Attempted new signature...
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
From what I've seen here, nearly every principle has been challenged and received a variety of responses. And this is what I look for on the forum, a variety of responses, as much variety as I have time to read and ability to understand. Often I leave a long thread still undecided but always better informed. As I've posted earlier here, I believe in the principles because they have worked for me for many years and that's the bottom line. But I come to the forum for new thoughts about them, new challenges to them and to see how they stand up to the scrutiny.nisiprius wrote:There may be group-think within some virtual cliques within the forum, but all of these cliques post and exchange opinions.
In my opinion, the only truly dangerous group-think is the kind where you literally do not even know about the existence of dissenting opinions, and are confined within a bubble where it appears that "everyone" agrees on something.
"Tune out the noise" could be dangerous in this regard, but not unless one really succeeds in tuning it out completely.
Even "stay the course" does not go unchallenged here, as witness any number of current threads.
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"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
William Million wrote:Any Bogleheads ideas repeatedly espoused here . . . to the extent that group-think occurs? That is, "the psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an incorrect or deviant decision-making outcome." (Wikipedia)
No. If I stated that 10/16/2013 fell on a Wednesday or that the shortened version of my first name is "Dave" someone would cry, "home country-biased market timing!" or imbed a Morningstar plot that proves my inherent place in the universe is not meaningfully different from a Vanguard Total Sock Market Index Fund growth of $10,000 curve.
No one here seems overly concerned about agreeing with everyone else, which makes the discussions valuable. If anything, it's diaspora-think around here. There are certainly enclaves of like-minded souls, but as a whole the membership seems quite diverse.
Last edited by IlliniDave on Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Noob, it seems like there is a large variety of opinions on here on the matter of international exposure... I don't see how that qualifies as groupthink.Noobvestor wrote:The idea that US-only investing gets one global exposure, and that ex-US investing is expensive and risky in a way that isn't compensated is persistent among some factions.
But ... now I'll play contrarian/group thinker
I do think there is some selection bias on forum participation that may lead to limited perspectives/input or certain forms of groupthink. The main perspective seems to be upper middle class, white collar workers at jobs with a 401k/403B. Although that would probably be true of just about any financial forum.
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
I get the impression, occasionally, especially from new posters that they may be seeking out a "groupthink" mentality in order to garner support or approval for their actions or plans. When confronted with all possible options, it can be confusing and may even be intimidating when faced with so many possible ways to "skin a cat". Even though one of the primary strengths of the forum is the uncanny ability of it's members to dig out and analyse every available option, sometimes it is difficult to come away with the "best one for me" answer. In any event, an informed investor, aware of all the possibilities and consequences, is much better prepared and more likely to make the right decision.
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Belief that the boglehead method is the definition of simplicity and then spend an unimaginable amount of time analyzing the various methods of not going broke in retirement, best AA, slicing and dicing, gold, TIPS, on and on.
Belief that past performance has no relationship with future performance and then base the whole ballgame (retirement) on past performance, not to mention using past performance to prove every point on why x is better than y.
Belief that all financial advisor's are evil, except the ones who post here.
Belief that they are right and everyone else is a sucker.
Belief that past performance has no relationship with future performance and then base the whole ballgame (retirement) on past performance, not to mention using past performance to prove every point on why x is better than y.
Belief that all financial advisor's are evil, except the ones who post here.
Belief that they are right and everyone else is a sucker.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric.
I'm amazed there seem to be dozens of Bogleheads on this board who now base their investment or future earnings expectations on such a limited yeardstick.
I'm amazed there seem to be dozens of Bogleheads on this board who now base their investment or future earnings expectations on such a limited yeardstick.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
There you go with the groupthink again, doing whatever John Bogle saysThe Wizard wrote:Let me just say right now that I have a modest chunk of $$$ in a High-Yield Bond Fund, thus taking risk on the bond side of my portfolio in addition to the stock side.
So there...
Bogle: Swap Treasurys For Corporates (October 02, 2013)
During a recent conversation with IndexUniverse Managing Editor Olly Ludwig, Bogle held forth on a number of subjects, including his ongoing suspicions that ETFs tempt investors into making decisions that hurt them in the long haul, and his view that aggregate bond indexes have too much Treasury debt and not enough corporate credits.
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Mining the forum for threads that you deem
is starting to take on religious overtones of its own.William Million wrote:... an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think ...
No matter how long the hill, if you keep pedaling you'll eventually get up to the top.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
How can this be groupthink if it's being debated? I'm not sure you use that term to mean what others do.William Million wrote:PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
. . . . because so many posters here now have more faith in PE10 than any rational index investor, such as John Bogle. A few posters seem to have launched the notion, then more and more just followed along. Same thing seemed to happen with the S/V tilt. . . .placeholder wrote:How can this be groupthink if it's being debated? I'm not sure you use that term to mean what others do.William Million wrote:PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric.
Last edited by William Million on Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
What does this even mean?William Million wrote:. . . . because so many posters here now have more in PE10 than any rational index investor, such as John Bogle.
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
You think timing the market based on a metric - like PE10 - is boglehead.William Million wrote:PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric.
I'm amazed there seem to be dozens of Bogleheads on this board who now base their investment or future earnings expectations on such a limited yeardstick.
To be clear, do you think a fundamental tenant of the boglehead point of view is market timing of any kind.
Your statement above seems to imply you believe this.
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Market Timing: Do you seriously think you can predict the future? What else do the voices tell you? |
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
I can't even figure out what the thread means. Pretty useless.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
What about the glove index?IlliniDave wrote:William Million wrote:Any Bogleheads ideas repeatedly espoused here . . . to the extent that group-think occurs? That is, "the psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an incorrect or deviant decision-making outcome." (Wikipedia)
No. If I stated that 10/16/2013 fell on a Wednesday or that the shortened version of my first name is "Dave" someone would cry, "home country-biased market timing!" or imbed a Morningstar plot that proves my inherent place in the universe is not meaningfully different from a Vanguard Total Sock Market Index Fund growth of $10,000 curve.
No one here seems overly concerned about agreeing with everyone else, which makes the discussions valuable. If anything, it's diaspora-think around here. There are certainly enclaves of like-minded souls, but as a whole the membership seems quite diverse.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Actually it was Officer Murdoch's attempt to "port around" the iceberg that doomed the RMS Titanic. It did not "stay the course" The Titanic thus presented its side rather than its stem to the hazard. Bad move. Better complaint would be on Captain Smith's risk analysis related to speed, which is more like asset allocation.Jfet wrote:The only group think I can come up with on here that is 100% accepted as law is "Stay the course".
Now, was this the right move for the captain of the Titanic? I guess time will tell.
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Initially, as I understand it, the Titanic stayed the course in terms of top speed, despite conditions and iceberg warnings, leaving it too little time (especially under the weather conditions and an unusually calm sea) to completely avoid the berg or to at least graze it with less damage.Professor Emeritus wrote:Actually it was Officer Murdoch's attempt to "port around" the iceberg that doomed the RMS Titanic. It did not "stay the course" The Titanic thus presented its side rather than its stem to the hazard. Bad move. Better complaint would be on Captain Smith's risk analysis related to speed, which is more like asset allocation.Jfet wrote:The only group think I can come up with on here that is 100% accepted as law is "Stay the course".
Now, was this the right move for the captain of the Titanic? I guess time will tell.
What's most important to me in staying the course is to first be invested wisely and for the long term. Still, the Bogleheads' "stay the course" has different meanings to different Bogleheads (no groupthink there...) as previous threads show. Here are just a couple:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 10&t=90594
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=119035
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Those are good points. Also condescending attitudes towards certain asset classes.3504PIR wrote:Belief that the boglehead method is the definition of simplicity and then spend an unimaginable amount of time analyzing the various methods of not going broke in retirement, best AA, slicing and dicing, gold, TIPS, on and on.
Belief that past performance has no relationship with future performance and then base the whole ballgame (retirement) on past performance, not to mention using past performance to prove every point on why x is better than y.
Belief that all financial advisor's are evil, except the ones who post here.
Belief that they are right and everyone else is a sucker.
As a younger investor, sometimes, I feel the advice here is coming from some people trying to prop the market up through their retirement. I had heard a few years ago (from someone who interviewed at Vanguard) Bogle runs funds that use algorithmic trading that are constantly buying and selling equities. These funds are not available to retail investors.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Just quoting for the comedy valuemoney wrote:... I had heard a few years ago (from someone who interviewed at Vanguard) Bogle runs funds that use algorithmic trading that are constantly buying and selling equities. These funds are not available to retail investors.
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Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
I agree .gerrym51 wrote:there are plenty of dissenting opinions on this board on just about every subject. I wouldn't worry about it.
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