Tesla Motors Stock

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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Epsilon Delta » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:24 am

The US car market is about 14,000,000 per year. Tesla's current production capacity is about 20,000 per year. When evaluating Tesla's stock the question is not necessarily "can Tesla's market share get to the left of the decimal point?", it's whether it can make money with a market share that's a rounding error, and secondly what would getting volumes up to say 100,000 per year do to Tesla's costs?
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby sschullo » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:32 am

Stan Dup wrote:
[[*]"There also could be a technological breakthrough in energy storage and they could be best positioned to take advantage of it." I was talking with a leading expert in battery technology ( a professor) and he said that it takes approximately 18 years to bring a new battery chemistry to market (all the basic chemical research and real life fundamental research). They are currently working on the next generation battery chemistries, but nothing big is coming down the pike.[/list]
.


15 years ago, GM's EV1 had 110V overnight charge and the batteries got a 150 mile range. We all know what happened to that wonderful car, but what happened to that battery technology?
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Perpetual » Thu Jul 11, 2013 10:47 am

I bought some TSLA shares back when it was around $40, anticipating that it was going to skyrocket. I had been following them very closely, and I'm knowledgeable about the technical aspects of their main product as well as the nature of the challenges, which is why my prediction turned out to be correct. I sold it after making a %120 profit in a month. I could have made more if I had waited - the stock is around $120 now - but I wanted to play it conservatively.

I would never do this type of investing in one stock for any company whose business/product I did not understand inside out. So my advice to OP: unless your investment is based on real, thorough research, it will simply be a gamble. Nothing wrong with that if you have the money to spare, but make sure you approach it as a gamble and not an investment, i.e. buy the stock with the assumption that you will never see that money again.

stan dup wrote:I work in the automotive field; there is nothing magical about Tesla. The laws of physics have not been overcome, nor will they soon.

"Build it and they will come" does not apply to electric cars.


Most people in the car industry do not understand TSLA and continue to underestimate it. Which is precisely why TSLA is doing so well. When they release their next model around $40k, they will light the fire under all the incumbents. That's when the real fun will start.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby jdb » Thu Jul 11, 2013 11:00 am

matjen wrote:
jdb wrote:
matjen wrote:JDB I have a quick question. In looking at the power consumption chart above I realize how the aero really takes its toll as you increase speed. Chart stops at 70. Not sure of your driving habits or requirements but for me it is not unusual to be going 75-85 for very long stretches when on the highway. Have you noticed what that type of driving does to your range?

Hi Matjen. Good question. Yes, about once a week I do freeway trip of around 150 miles round trip. The Model S begs to go 75 or more on open road with air suspension that lowers suspension at speed, it is only the regenerative braking that starts moment foot is off accelerator that has kept me from tickets. There is a fall off of range at speed especially with sudden acceleration. Car can go from 60 to 90 in less than 3 seconds and that affects range probably more than higher constant speed. My best unscientific guesstimate based on 8 months driving is around 5-7 percent, so with my daily range of about 230 then with freeway driving at speed would get around 215. This is not stop and go freeway but the open road driving. As practical matter my daily slogs never require more than 200 miles before arriving back at refueling station (my garage).


Thanks JDB. The Model S intrigues me because it appears to have a nice combo of being cool (early adopter battery, touchscreens, etc.), actually practical from a space and functionality perspective for this type of car, and fast/fun to drive. I would love to see some camparos by the car magazines between it and say an Audi S7 and a Porsche Panamera. If I was an editor I would be getting that type of article together.


Agree, would like to read such comparisons. Having recently leased an Audi A8 for several years can confirm that there is no comparison in handling and performance, the Tesla Model S is so much superior and just much more fun to drive. Last visit at Tesla store in South Florida was advised that they had an almost new Panamera and two 911's being traded in that week for the Model S. Suspect that the German automakers may not be too keen on having their ICE uber sedans compared against the Model S.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Pete3 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 11:02 am

sschullo wrote:15 years ago, GM's EV1 had 110V overnight charge and the batteries got a 150 mile range. We all know what happened to that wonderful car, but what happened to that battery technology?
Nothing special about the EV1's battery, it was older NiMH technology (2nd generation EV1) : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EV1#Battery

"The Gen I EV1 models, released in 1996, used lead-acid batteries, and weighed in at 3,086 pounds (1,400 kg). The first batch of batteries were provided by GM's Delphi branch; these were rated at 53 amp-hours at 312 volts (16.5 kWh), and initially provided a range of 60 miles (96 km) per charge....
Soon after the rollout of the second generation cars, the originally intended nickel metal hydride (NiMH) "Ovonic" battery pack, which reduced the car's curb weight to 2,908 pounds (1,319 kg) entered production; this pack was also retrofitted to earlier cars (both battery pack designs were led and invented by John E. Waters under the Delco Remy organization). The NiMH batteries, rated at 77 amp-hours (26.4 kWh) at 343 volts, gave the cars a range of 160 miles (257 km) per charge, more than twice what the original Gen I cars could muster."

Compare that to the current Nissan Leaf's lithium-ion battery pack (24 kWh) : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_leaf#Battery

Lithium-ion is clearly superior to NiMH but it is still expensive - that is the single biggest factor limiting current EV range, large lithium ion battery packs are costly.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:37 pm

Pete3 wrote:Few? :confused "Study Finds Americans Own 2.28 Vehicles Per Household" http://www.autospies.com/news/Study-Fin ... old-26437/


I referred to single people ("everyone"), not households.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:40 pm

prudent wrote:The infrastructure and cultural obstacles are immense for this to become more than a niche product. An ICE car that you can drive anywhere, any time, for any distance with zero fear of being able to fully refuel in minutes at will is a tough bar to overcome.


You said it better in two sentences than I have.

We need to do it, but it is slow going.

Remember, once one party figures out the magical formula, everyone will copy it. Their advantage won't last long, unless protected by patents or the like.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:50 pm

Perpetual wrote:Most people in the car industry do not understand TSLA and continue to underestimate it. Which is precisely why TSLA is doing so well. When they release their next model around $40k, they will light the fire under all the incumbents. That's when the real fun will start.


I do not understand it because it is based on so much hype. Fundamentally, they face all the same problems that every other manufacturer faces (along with their university and goverment partners) with technology that is no different from anyone elses. I guess it comes down to the intangibles like "leadership".

I hope you are right, I hope the hype can be sustained long enough that it builds momentum and it fundamentally changes the world. The consumer has to adapt to an electric economy.
Last edited by Stan Dup on Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:52 pm

Pete3 wrote:Lithium-ion is clearly superior to NiMH but it is still expensive - that is the single biggest factor limiting current EV range, large lithium ion battery packs are costly.


Bingo!

Tesla's stats are mostly because it has a large battery. Which is expensive.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Pete3 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:55 pm

Stan Dup wrote:
Pete3 wrote:Few? :confused "Study Finds Americans Own 2.28 Vehicles Per Household" http://www.autospies.com/news/Study-Fin ... old-26437/

I referred to single people ("everyone"), not households.
You quoted and replied to my statement of "Most families have multiple cars, I'm sure Tesla would be ok with every family having one Tesla and one traditional (ICE) car in the garage."

There is no need for every individual to have multiple cars to avoid a "paradigm shift", not sure why you would throw out that red herring.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Thu Jul 11, 2013 1:00 pm

Pete3 wrote:There is no need for every individual to have multiple cars to avoid a "paradigm shift", not sure why you would throw out that red herring.


I said that because I am single; and that is how I think. Yeah, re-reading your original post makes more sense. My bad, sorry about that.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby mac808 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 1:32 pm

I can't speak to Tesla's stock market valuation, but to echo similar sentiments expressed in the thread, all of the car guys I know who have driven Tesla cars absolutely love them.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Pete3 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 1:33 pm

Stan Dup wrote:I said that because I am single; and that is how I think. Yeah, re-reading your original post makes more sense. My bad, sorry about that.
Thanks.

One option for single people who want an EV but also have occasional need for longer trips is what Fiat is offering with their EV cars: customers get 12 days of (free) rentals from Enterprise per year

http://green.autoblog.com/2013/04/03/fi ... l-rentals/
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby JamesAt15 » Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:36 am

Stan Dup wrote:
Pete3 wrote:Lithium-ion is clearly superior to NiMH but it is still expensive - that is the single biggest factor limiting current EV range, large lithium ion battery packs are costly.


Bingo!

Tesla's stats are mostly because it has a large battery. Which is expensive.


But getting cheaper all the time. 40% price drop from 2010 to 2012 according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. And they had also suggested the price may drop to $150 per Kwh by 2030, which is another 77%. Their graph in the more recent article seems to show them sticking by that prediction, although against the recent price drop it appears overly conservative.

They also note that the batteries account for "about 25%" of the cost of electric vehicles. That's a pretty good chunk, but suggests that for the most part the cost of a Tesla S is still due to it being a luxury automobile in the same class as other expensive ICE cars.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby mbenz1997 » Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:08 am

I test drove a model S last week - exhilarating to say the least! Lots of fun to drive, and the pickup is incredible - no jerking of a transmission, and when I mashed the accelerator even going about 20-30 mph, it still slammed me to the back of the seat. The technology was incredible.

I picked up some shares in the 70s. The market cap isn't justified at this level (or even at the $70 level), but I felt strongly enough about the product and Elon Musk to invest. At about 1% (actually grown to about 2%) of my portfolio, I'm ok with letting it ride for the long term.

I would love to own one, but the boglehead in me couldn't justify spending 100k on a car lol.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby oragne lovre » Fri Jul 12, 2013 4:33 am

Perpetual wrote:
I would never do this type of investing in one stock for any company whose business/product I did not understand inside out. So my advice to OP: unless your investment is based on real, thorough research, it will simply be a gamble. Nothing wrong with that if you have the money to spare, but make sure you approach it as a gamble and not an investment, i.e. buy the stock with the assumption that you will never see that money again.


I appreciate your advice. I've placed a limit buy for ONE share at $100 and see what happens. I consider this one share buy as a fun bet, or gamble from your wording, than an investment. Maybe I won't ever be able to get the share if TSLA turns out not a pure hype 8-)

Most people in the car industry do not understand TSLA and continue to underestimate it. Which is precisely why TSLA is doing so well. When they release their next model around $40k, they will light the fire under all the incumbents. That's when the real fun will start.


I really want to have some fun :D . Is $100 too much?
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby jdb » Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:49 am

oragne lovre wrote:
Perpetual wrote:
I would never do this type of investing in one stock for any company whose business/product I did not understand inside out. So my advice to OP: unless your investment is based on real, thorough research, it will simply be a gamble. Nothing wrong with that if you have the money to spare, but make sure you approach it as a gamble and not an investment, i.e. buy the stock with the assumption that you will never see that money again.


I appreciate your advice. I've placed a limit buy for ONE share at $100 and see what happens. I consider this one share buy as a fun bet, or gamble from your wording, than an investment. Maybe I won't ever be able to get the share if TSLA turns out not a pure hype 8-)

Most people in the car industry do not understand TSLA and continue to underestimate it. Which is precisely why TSLA is doing so well. When they release their next model around $40k, they will light the fire under all the incumbents. That's when the real fun will start.[/quote

I really want to have some fun :D . Is $100 too much?


Good luck oragne lovre. As an investor in TSLA hope that your buy order never gets executed but if it does I will also be buying more shares at that time. In meantime you have engendered an interesting discussion thread. Thanks.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Call_Me_Op » Fri Jul 12, 2013 8:33 am

Earnings per share are negative - which means it doesn't even have a positive P/E ratio. This is a pure speculation, so be prepared to possibly lose most of what you invest.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby jdb » Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:11 am

Call_Me_Op wrote:Earnings per share are negative - which means it doesn't even have a positive P/E ratio. This is a pure speculation, so be prepared to possibly lose most of what you invest.

You may be right Call Me Op but I hope not. This is one of my few individual stock investments, and by far largest, almost all other equities held through Vanguard funds. Invested in company last year because was so impressed with their game changing product and enjoyed being able to deal with company reps without salesman or sales manager at a dealership. I became even more impressed with Tesla Motors when received new car apps by download on large touch screen in car and good repair experience when they came to my house for service on car, and ended up more than doubling down on investment first quarter this year. Guess you could say I drank the Kool Aid, also put in order for Model X. With basis less than 50 and stock now around 125 have plenty of room to fall before feel real pain but have decided that am in this "speculation" for long term and plan to be riding TSLA roller coaster long after receive Model X in 2015. Am not going to be recommending stock purchase at current valuation (though certainly recommend car purchase, best car I have ever owned by far) but have become firm believer in long term growth prospects of this young American company and if price gets down to around oragne lovre buy order level may be increasing my amount of pure speculation.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby oragne lovre » Tue Jul 16, 2013 2:27 pm

It looks TSLA is downtrending closer to its "true valuation." I have high hope I can get my "fun share." :D

Disclaimer: I truly believe in boglehead way, am skeptical of market timing, and thus adhering to diversification. I'm not smarter than the market. I just want to have some cheap fun by playing with an individual stock that represents an exciting business concept I love :D
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby wenzee » Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:35 pm

Amazing that the stock is now over 200 per share and reporting tomorrow!
Its been a wild ride and its not over yet.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby invest0 » Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:06 pm

Yep, hilarious to see all the criticism and charting links this got when TSLA was at $100 a share. Now here we are at $200.

I could see it continuing well past TSLA growing into a Google-like chart. They have to do some enormous things, obviously, for the kinds of expectations that are priced in to be met. I do own a tiny amount of TSLA in my very small "fun money" account as well. There are a few factors that influenced my decision:

1.) Elon Musk: Looking at PayPal, SpaceX, SCTY's rise to the top of the U.S. solar market - when he believes he can do something revolutionary, I'm inclined to listen. It certainly looks like he's the right CEO to finally bring a sweeping change here as he has in other areas.
2.) Electric is going to happen. If simply the fact that it's twice as efficient to produce energy at the plant than in an automobile that benefits from being lightweight and aerodynamic. This alone does not discount the large car companies from doing it too, however, and do expect the oil/auto lobbies to continue fighting it as they have for nearly a century. It's happening even now with the "Tesla catches fire" headlines in the two cases to describe somebody literally getting into reckless car crashes that were their own fault. When Paul Walker recently died in a car crash, you saw no mention of a fire or even the car he was driving - but rest assured that the addition of the giant gas tank would make such a wreck far more dangerous.
3.) People need to love the car as well - and people that own the cars, seem to freaking love them, and they are clearly selling well now for the market that they're in. Compare that to previous electric vehicles, that most people seem to hate.
4.) Probably the biggest uncertainty - Tesla will still need to gain serious mass "middle-class" market share to make a meaningful enough dent to justify even the current price. That is their plan - models released in phases, with the next phase in the $35k arena. They have to succeed at doing this - the stock is priced as if it's already happened to a fair degree.

My bet is that I'm right about all 4. Forget the charting - it's speculation that's priced in here - and if I'm not right about all 4, then it probably is not worth the price you see, and a bubble will pop.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Jack FFR1846 » Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:25 pm

To simply answer the question without drama :shock: , I was quite happy with Scottrade when I traded stock a lot. I was able to take the maximum deduction for losses for about 3 years before deciding that it wasn't as fun as just having all that money instead. Scottrade's fees are low and and their ticker software (whatever they call it) was great to monitor my holdings.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby autonomy » Tue Feb 18, 2014 4:43 pm

wenzee wrote:Amazing that the stock is now over 200 per share and reporting tomorrow!
Its been a wild ride and its not over yet.
Wenzee


Everyone's buying up before the revenue announcement, gambling on a big rise. Afterwards, it will either jump or drop a lot. Highly volatile.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:01 pm

The limiting factoring with electric vehicles is not the vehicles; it is infrastructure and our relationship to the vehicles.

PEOPLE have largely rejected electric vehicles for one main reason: they are accustomed to living a certain way with their internal combustion engine (ICE) car. They know how far it can go on a tank of gas, filling stations are everywhere. The electric infrastructure is not there yet. Potential customers have "range anxiety". People do not want to recharge their cars for many hours. The oil companies do not have to fight them because they are not a contender yet.

Again, please note that I am not against electric vehicles, I love the idea, and I think we need to move in that direction. But it will not be a simple swapping of electric vehicles for ICE vehicles. A more fundamental paradigm shift will have to happen in all of our car societies.

We ARE moving toward an electric society, but very, very slowly. We need to get there.

Realize that all the car companies are building electric vehicles, and they are working with universities and others who really want this to happen. But when they put millions of dollars of capital into them and the customers only buy a few, they largely adopt a wait and see attitude.

All of the car companies are selling hamburger, Tesla is really selling the sizzle. Good for him; the leadership is needed. My guess is he is going to grow the company and then sell it off.

The reason I respond the way I do is that this is about investing and I want to provide hard headed advice so that investors can make rational decisions. The automotive industry is brutally competitive. The fact that their price has gone up means nothing to me; I would like to see it in 10 years, if they are still around. If they are successful, it means everyone else will be too and we will be in a new world.

Oh, and about the Tesla fires: grow a thick skin about news reports. Fires make dramatic headlines. I feel little sympathy for someone saying "it's not fair!" what they say about my favorite car company. Dealing with the press is part of doing business. If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen (ha!)

BTW: What we need is gasoline at $10 a gallon. Electric vehicles will look better and better.

Don't count out fuel cell vehicles.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby manwithnoname » Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:41 pm

just how does long does the battery in the tesla last before it has to be replaced and what is the cost. From what I have read the problem with EVs being accepted by the public is that the battery has to be replaced every 3 years at a cost of 8-10G+. There is little need for a car with a planned obsolescence of 3 years.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby harikaried » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:05 pm

manwithnoname wrote:just how does long does the battery in the tesla last before it has to be replaced and what is the cost.
There's an article and video from last year about a 90-second battery-swap system where drivers pull up to get a fully charged pack swapped in:

http://www.engadget.com/2013/06/21/tesl ... -than-gas/

One potential pricing structure is you pay for the difference in charge levels plus the cost of effectively leasing the battery as opposed to having the battery be permanently part of the car. This way owners don't even need to worry about replacing old batteries as that happens behind the scenes at the battery-swap stations.

I suppose if there's payment information associated with the car, one would just drive up, wait 90 seconds, then drive away.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:47 pm

manwithnoname wrote:just how does long does the battery in the tesla last before it has to be replaced and what is the cost. From what I have read the problem with EVs being accepted by the public is that the battery has to be replaced every 3 years at a cost of 8-10G+. There is little need for a car with a planned obsolescence of 3 years.


Just a strong positive note for batteries: The life of some battery packs where I work is in excess of 10 years now. So the public's fear is not entirely rational. But then again, real world battery life will probably be different then test batteries.

The battery swapping idea was tried by an Israeli company. Great idea. They went bankrupt last year I think. "Build it and they will come" so far has not applied to electric vehicles.

Think of this as a paradigm shift: when we switched from horse and buggy it took many years with many different ideas out there, but the benefits were very positive on the ICE side. Now we are trying to move to electric propulsion, but for most part it is change for less benefits.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:48 pm

harikaried wrote:
One potential pricing structure is you pay for the difference in charge levels plus the cost of effectively leasing the battery as opposed to having the battery be permanently part of the car. This way owners don't even need to worry about replacing old batteries as that happens behind the scenes at the battery-swap stations.



I like this idea.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby manwithnoname » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:53 pm

harikaried wrote:
manwithnoname wrote:just how does long does the battery in the tesla last before it has to be replaced and what is the cost.
There's an article and video from last year about a 90-second battery-swap system where drivers pull up to get a fully charged pack swapped in:

http://www.engadget.com/2013/06/21/tesl ... -than-gas/

One potential pricing structure is you pay for the difference in charge levels plus the cost of effectively leasing the battery as opposed to having the battery be permanently part of the car. This way owners don't even need to worry about replacing old batteries as that happens behind the scenes at the battery-swap stations.

I suppose if there's payment information associated with the car, one would just drive up, wait 90 seconds, then drive away.


But who is going to pay for the cost of building 500k stations across the US? Cost of acquiring Real estate is not included. Is Tesla going to finance the service? Will it raise capital with a new stock offering diluting the value of its exiting stock? Sell bonds? How about building one at every Macdonalds or BK. Until these stations are built along every 50 miles of interstate (all 47,719 mi) and metropolitan area there is not going to be much of a market for Teslas.

I think the Tesla is destined to be the next Delorean which will be seen on the next sequel of Back to the Future rather than on US roads.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby madbrain » Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:07 pm

Pete3,

Pete3 wrote:Soon after the rollout of the second generation cars, the originally intended nickel metal hydride (NiMH) "Ovonic" battery pack, which reduced the car's curb weight to 2,908 pounds (1,319 kg) entered production; this pack was also retrofitted to earlier cars (both battery pack designs were led and invented by John E. Waters under the Delco Remy organization). The NiMH batteries, rated at 77 amp-hours (26.4 kWh) at 343 volts, gave the cars a range of 160 miles (257 km) per charge, more than twice what the original Gen I cars could muster."

Compare that to the current Nissan Leaf's lithium-ion battery pack (24 kWh) : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_leaf#Battery

Lithium-ion is clearly superior to NiMH but it is still expensive - that is the single biggest factor limiting current EV range, large lithium ion battery packs are costly.


I am not sure how you draw the conclusion that Lithium-ion is superior to NiMH from these stats.
My Nissan Leaf 2012 has a curb weight of 3354 lbs, only 10% above that EV1 Gen II.
And with the 24 kWh battery, its EPA range is only 73 miles. 160 miles for the EV1 Gen II vs 73 miles for the Leaf is 119% higher range for the EV1 Gen II.
Even if you account for a 10% reduction in mileage due to the higher weight of the Leaf, and another 10% for the lower kWh in the Leaf battery, it still looks like the NiMH battery provides about double the range.

I would be extremely happy with a 160 miles range in my Leaf - that would cover 100% of my trips. 73 miles, sadly, does not, it is closer to 95-98%, and sometimes I have to take my husband's gasoline Prius.

One caution is that the EPA has changed its methodology for measuring range many times over the years. This is especially true for electric vehicles.
So, a car that had a 160 miles on a 2001 EPA range test like the EV1 Gen II might not have the same range on a 2012 EPA range test.

For example, in the 2014 Nissan Leaf , Nissan got rid of the option to charge the battery to 80% only. This one change caused the EPA range to be boosted from 73 miles to 84 miles. For years 2011-2013, the EPA inexplicably measured the Leaf range by calculating the average of the range at 80% battery and 100% battery. This put the Leaf at a competitive disadvantage in range vs other EVs that lacked the 80% battery charging option.

Another note, you can't do overnight charging of a GM EV1 Gen II 26.4 kWh battery or Leaf 24 kWh battery using a 110V socket. A standard 110V socket only supplies 15A at most. This means 1650 W. It would take 16 hours in for the EV1 in theory and 14.5 hours for the Leaf. However, there are charging losses too. I don't know what they are on the EV1, but on the Leaf they are about 30% at 110V. This means the Leaf takes closer to 21 hours for a full charge on a 110V socket. Assuming the same 30% charging losses, it would take an EV1 Gen II almost 23 hours for a full charge on a 110V socket.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby sambb » Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:15 pm

My favorite fallacy of the tesla owners, is the idea that the car is cost effective
Let see: a tesla, nicely equipped is >90000

One can buy an E class benz for 60k, and less for other nicer cars.

Tesla never calculates that you can INVEST the 30k difference and MORE than make up the cost of gas.

But then people say - well the TESLA is faster and nicer and cooler.

OK, but if an E class benz isn't good enough for you, then you are a spoiled rich person! Geez. Yeah, it doesn't have a 17 inch monitor. Who cares!!

The fact above about cost is ignored by the tesla fanboys.

SO for the stock to do well, it will depend on a lower model. I could care less of sales of a 90k model. See how many want that model in 5 years when the interior tech will be outdated. Resale will plummet.

And look at the range in the cold. It is limited a lot.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby manwithnoname » Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:22 pm

sambb wrote:My favorite fallacy of the tesla owners, is the idea that the car is cost effective
Let see: a tesla, nicely equipped is >90000

One can buy an E class benz for 60k, and less for other nicer cars.

Tesla never calculates that you can INVEST the 30k difference and MORE than make up the cost of gas.

But then people say - well the TESLA is faster and nicer and cooler.

OK, but if an E class benz isn't good enough for you, then you are a spoiled rich person! Geez. Yeah, it doesn't have a 17 inch monitor. Who cares!!

The fact above about cost is ignored by the tesla fanboys.

SO for the stock to do well, it will depend on a lower model. I could care less of sales of a 90k model. See how many want that model in 5 years when the interior tech will be outdated. Resale will plummet.

And look at the range in the cold. It is limited a lot.



Lets not ignore the reviews of Tesla reliability by former celebrity owners.

http://search.mywebsearch.com/mywebsear ... d=1&ct=AR&
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby madbrain » Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:51 pm

manwithnoname wrote:Lets not ignore the reviews of Tesla reliability by former celebrity owners.

http://search.mywebsearch.com/mywebsear ... d=1&ct=AR&


I think he is still a celebrity, though he is a former owner ;).
And he must really not be paying much attention if he really got stuck on the side of the road so many times with a Tesla. I bet this happened to him with gasoline cars too if he is not watching the fuel gauge.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby jdb » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:03 pm

sambb wrote:My favorite fallacy of the tesla owners, is the idea that the car is cost effective
Let see: a tesla, nicely equipped is >90000

One can buy an E class benz for 60k, and less for other nicer cars.

Tesla never calculates that you can INVEST the 30k difference and MORE than make up the cost of gas.

But then people say - well the TESLA is faster and nicer and cooler.

OK, but if an E class benz isn't good enough for you, then you are a spoiled rich person! Geez. Yeah, it doesn't have a 17 inch monitor. Who cares!!

The fact above about cost is ignored by the tesla fanboys.

SO for the stock to do well, it will depend on a lower model. I could care less of sales of a 90k model. See how many want that model in 5 years when the interior tech will be outdated. Resale will plummet.

And look at the range in the cold. It is limited a lot.

So here we are again. Naysayers chewing on the Tesla success. I will add short counterpoint, now that have 16,000 miles on my Model S. I have owned Mercedes E Class, indeed, that was the car traded in for Model S over a year ago. Have owned or leased my fair share of other German autos plus Cadillacs and Lincolns. No comparison. I gainsay that the naysayers have never driven a Model S, let alone owned one. It is a game changer. Neither my wife or I will ever buy another ICE car. Looking forward to delivery of Model X in 2015, will trade wife's Lexus LS 460, she is looking forward to driving the Model S full time while I will have the dual motor AWD vehicle, with rear falcon wing doors and probably more torque than any passenger vehicle. I consider it the safest car I have ever driven, along with being by far the most enjoyable. Nice to just plug in the vehicle every night in garage. And yes, my stock investment doing fine, like the vehicle it has exceeded expectations, but as a long term investor am a little disappointed, had hoped that stock would go down significantly so could buy lots more. But if naysayers and short sellers keep at it maybe I will be in luck and be able to buy much more of TSLA stock in future at lower prices. I for one am in this American electric car investment for the long term.
Last edited by jdb on Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby manwithnoname » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:10 pm

madbrain wrote:
manwithnoname wrote:Lets not ignore the reviews of Tesla reliability by former celebrity owners.

http://search.mywebsearch.com/mywebsear ... d=1&ct=AR&


I think he is still a celebrity, though he is a former owner ;).
And he must really not be paying much attention if he really got stuck on the side of the road so many times with a Tesla. I bet this happened to him with gasoline cars too if he is not watching the fuel gauge.



Yes, but AAA will give you a gallon of two of gas to get to a gas station. There is no similar service for a tesla with a dead battery in Malibu.

I understand that The tesla roaster has been ask to screen test for Back to the future 4 where George Clooney will play Marty McFly.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby madbrain » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:22 pm

manwithnoname wrote:Yes, but AAA will give you a gallon of two of gas to get to a gas station. There is no similar service for a tesla with a dead battery.


You are incorrect, there is a very similar service. AAA has charging trucks. Looks like they are adapting to EVs just fine.

http://exchange.aaa.com/electric-vehicl ... aaas-role/
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby thirdman » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:12 am

There are two issues here. The stock and the stock market, and the company and the product. Philip Fisher wrote the book on picking companies to invest in. I bought Tesla stock as soon as i saw a Model S. Let me note parenthetically that this is the only individual stock that i have bought in the past few years. I bought the stock at 29 USD a share. I plan on holding it for years. Would i buy it at current prices? Probably not, but my guess is that if i did, ten years from now i would be pleased. Why? Read on.

Elon Musk developed a marketing plan and a vehicle on a shoestring budget. His plan was superior to Carlos Ghosn', head of Nissan. Having only one tenth the budget of the Leaf, Musk produced a superior organization, Tesla, and a superior product.

The competition in the electric car field is heating up. BMW is producing two new all electric cars. The safe bet is to buy an equity index fund with a low ER. Me? I plan to hold Tesla. I think Philip Fisher would approve.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby invest0 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:09 am

manwithnoname wrote:Lets not ignore the reviews of Tesla reliability by former celebrity owners.

http://search.mywebsearch.com/mywebsear ... d=1&ct=AR&


Had to disable my Murdoch Block plugin. :)

Clooney's quote begins:

"I had a Tesla. I was one of the first cats with a Tesla,"

Elon Musk has had to answer to this particular hit repeatedly. Clooney did not own a Model S. Tesla was founded in 2003 - when you get to the notion that Clooney was talking about being "one of the first" - you've found a good spot to stop reading. I believe Tesla equated this to comparing an Apple 2E to a Macbook Pro (also technology from different decades) and calling it journalism. Musk was not even the CEO of Tesla back then. Different car, different decade, you could even make a case pretty fairly that it was a different company.

EDIT: Also relevant - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/statuses/4 ... 3742164992
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby hiddensee » Wed Feb 19, 2014 7:35 am

Tesla is hard limited in its market share. Electric cars require a large proportion of the weight and cost to be in batteries. In an ultralight sports car you can get away with that because no one is expecting a lot of passenger space and luggage capacity, or a low price tag. Sports cars are also status objects and electric cars, currently, are status objects. Once the sports car market is done you are left with overpriced, underspec'd sedans that will only ever have niche appeal. Investing a lot of money in Tesla at a market high is a political bet that the US Government (or that of some other large country) will subsidise electric cars much more than they are subsidising them today, for a long period.


edit: Wow, Tesla has half the market capitalisation of GM or BMW. It produces fewer than 1% the number of vehicles, and has a P/E of 128! If you own this stock, sell before the suckers unsophisticated retail investors wake up. If I didn't know better, I might short it.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Pete3 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:02 am

sambb wrote:My favorite fallacy of the tesla owners, is the idea that the car is cost effective
Let see: a tesla, nicely equipped is >90000

One can buy an E class benz for 60k, and less for other nicer cars.

Tesla never calculates that you can INVEST the 30k difference and MORE than make up the cost of gas.

But then people say - well the TESLA is faster and nicer and cooler.

OK, but if an E class benz isn't good enough for you, then you are a spoiled rich person! Geez. Yeah, it doesn't have a 17 inch monitor. Who cares!!

The fact above about cost is ignored by the tesla fanboys.

SO for the stock to do well, it will depend on a lower model. I could care less of sales of a 90k model. See how many want that model in 5 years when the interior tech will be outdated. Resale will plummet.

And look at the range in the cold. It is limited a lot.

You don't have to spend > $90k to get a nicely equipped Tesla, unless perhaps you are a spoiled rich person.
You are neglecting the cost of maintenance in your comparison, if you owned a E class benz you would know what I'm talking about...how 'bout those oil changes?
Regardless, you shouldn't be considering a luxury car if "cost effective" is your concern, a loaded accord is a fine mode of transportation if that's all you are interested in and you'll have $50k left over.

Yes, Tesla needs to make a more affordable electric car in order to increase sales beyond a point, there are only so many consumers in the market for $60k+ cars after all.
The good news is that is already their plan, after the Model X (SUV) they are going to release a so-called Model E in the $40k price range.

Tesla as a company has executed brilliantly so far, the Model S isn't just a great electric car, its a great car period.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby bondsr4me » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:14 am

matonplayer wrote:I have a friend that's big into CAN SLIM and he bought TSLA at 102. He says he can get 10% return on his portfolio with no problem...


I am curious as to how your friend is doing using IBD's CANSLIM....has he outperformed his benchmarks?

I read the paper occasionally, but don't use technical analysis and charts; I am pretty much fundamentals.

Thanks,

Don
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:23 am

Pete3 wrote:
Tesla as a company has executed brilliantly so far,



Except they have not made any money.
"The tyranny of compounding expenses is the eighth deadly sin." - George Sisti
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby 4nursebee » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:24 am

Saying tesla has not made money is ill informed
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Pete3 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:29 am

Stan Dup wrote:
Pete3 wrote:
Tesla as a company has executed brilliantly so far,


Except they have not made any money.
I don't know why you would say except, not being profitable is normal for a young company in a rapid growth phase.
Concentrating on turning a profit instead of doing what they are doing would be a huge mistake.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby Stan Dup » Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:14 pm

The history of car making is littered with hundreds, probably thousands, of brilliant start-up companies. Some of them grew and lasted for many, many years.

The long term survival rate however is very low.

Investing for the long run is different than speculating on a stock.

Just yesterday I was watching some video about investing in alternative energy. The advice was to invest in a mutual fund because so many start ups have already gone out of business. These are the people promoting alternative energy investing and they freely admit that there are a lot of failures. It was nice to see them be so up front about it and not promote it as the next big thing.
Last edited by Stan Dup on Wed Feb 19, 2014 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The tyranny of compounding expenses is the eighth deadly sin." - George Sisti
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby hiddensee » Wed Feb 19, 2014 4:39 pm

The problem with their current valuation is not that they are making no money at all, although, until recently, that was true. Rather, it is that they would need to manufacture and sell about 500,000 cars per year to justify it. Their current plan (not actual sales) is to produce 20,000 cars per year.

People recommending to buy now are envisioning even larger growth than that. Supposing electric cars were to come to dominate the market in the near future - which is a gamble with long odds - it's not likely that Tesla would monopolise this market. The key technology in an electric car is the battery, but Tesla don't hold patents on uniquely suitable types of batteries; they simply buy from wholesale suppliers.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby madbrain » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:01 pm

hiddensee wrote:The problem with their current valuation is not that they are making no money at all, although, until recently, that was true. Rather, it is that they would need to manufacture and sell about 500,000 cars per year to justify it. Their current plan (not actual sales) is to produce 20,000 cars per year.


Tesla already produced more than 20,000 cars last year and are planning on producing 35,000 this year.

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_ ... -expansion

Article wrote:PALO ALTO -- Tesla Motors announced Wednesday that it delivered 22,477 Model S sedans in 2013 but expects to deliver more than 35,000 cars this year, sending the stock soaring more than 12 percent in after-hours trading.


Article wrote:"We won't be able to satisfy demand in China," said Musk, who predicted that Tesla's overseas sales this year could double its U.S. sales.
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby hiddensee » Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am

I stand corrected. Do you believe this substantially changes my analysis?
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Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Postby madbrain » Thu Feb 20, 2014 2:51 am

hiddensee wrote:I stand corrected. Do you believe this substantially changes my analysis?


At least somewhat, yes. They are still a growing company and seem to be growing more than you anticipated.
FYI, I don't hold Tesla stock, but then again, I am a Boglehead, and I don't own any individual stock.

It seems to me the stock price may be due to the fact that it's still a high growth company, as opposed to more mature automakers.
I don't know how to precisely value this stock (or any other stock), but it seems to me the overall valuation should be related to the earnings, current and projected, and not a specific numbers of cars made/sold.
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