Reposting from another thread:
What you did is the equivalent of walking into a casino, noticing a table where there has been a lot of black recently, and concluding that black is a most excellent bet. A much more opaque equivalent, admittedly. There will almost always be such a table, but it doesn't prove anything. To eliminate the selection bias you need to look at all the active funds:
- Code: Select all
2010 2011 2012 YTD
VSS 25.60 -19.63 20.73 3.82
Category 21.20 -17.42 16.99 5.46
So at the other casino tables, red and black alternate as expected.
The load & fees on this fund are scandalous, btw.