Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

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Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby antiqueman » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:02 am

Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby The Wizard » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:13 am

Maybe just a BD, 1.0 to 1.5% down.
Sometimes Mr. Market recovers a bit after the morning's news is digested.
I'm not planning to do any transfers today...
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby WVUGuy275 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:14 am

<star trek humor>

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</star trek humor>
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby NYBoglehead » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:22 am

Rebalance if it the declines of the day are likely to throw your AA off enough that it triggers the rebalancing criteria in your IPS.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby kenyan » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:25 am

Got a long way to go. The minimum drop for a ReallyBadDay is 2.5%.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby Johm221122 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:26 am

antiqueman wrote:Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?

What is today's closing price? Things happen, nobody knows were market will end up today
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby nisiprius » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:28 am

(Obligatory... but accurate): I don't know and I don't care.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby YDNAL » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:29 am

antiqueman wrote:Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?

I don't know what RBD* means, but I DO know that a 20% allocation to any Asset Class must move +/- 25% to hit a 5% rebalancing Band.

* Please, save your posts, just being sarcastic.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby kenyan » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:36 am

Johm221122 wrote:
antiqueman wrote:Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?

What is today's closing price? Things happen, nobody knows were market will end up today
John


RBD can happen intraday, since the RBD investor uses ETFs.

I do not use RBDs, though - rebalancing bands are just fine for me.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby Sheepdog » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:37 am

It won't be another really bad day until it is worse than 10/19/1987 when the Dow dropped 508 points or 22.6%.
I was there.
Even that recovered.
Keep cool.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby EternalOptimist » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:40 am

Sheepdog wrote:It won't be another really bad day until it is worse than 10/19/1987 when the Dow dropped 508 points or 22.6%.
I was there.
Even that recovered.
Keep cool.
Jim



Was there too...relax :!:
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:43 am

2.5% is bad. A better day would be 5% down or worse. These days it seems 1% moves up or down are commonplace.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby YDNAL » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:45 am

EternalOptimist wrote:
Sheepdog wrote:It won't be another really bad day until it is worse than 10/19/1987 when the Dow dropped 508 points or 22.6%.
I was there.
Even that recovered.
Keep cool.
Jim

Was there too...relax :!:

Was there three!

True and sad (near my neck of the woods).
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby grayfox » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:56 am

antiqueman wrote:Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?


Rght now S&P 500 is down about -0.93%.

But, how did you guess today would be a down day before it even opened?
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby YDNAL » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:06 am

grayfox wrote:
antiqueman wrote:Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?

Rght now S&P 500 is down about -0.93%.

But, how did you guess today would be a down day before it even opened?

Antiqueman posted at 10:02 AM. :beer
antiqueman wrote: » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:02 am
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby Jfet » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:09 am

Bought 1200 shares of VT today for $51.15 and fairly happy with that price since I tried to get it yesterday for $51.60 and it never hit.

I need to search what RBD means though...
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby VictoriaF » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:12 am

antiqueman wrote:Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?

Yes, it is an RBD, a Relatively Bad Day.

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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby richard » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:13 am

grayfox wrote:But, how did you guess today would be a down day before it even opened?

Futures and the jobs report.

It's a great day for bond prices. 10 year treasuries are at record high prices (or at least the highest prices in the past 60 years).
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby Sheepdog » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:14 am

Now, the bond market is rallying when "everyone" said the bond market has no where to go but down. How is it going up then?
Relax everyone, relax, on stocks and bonds.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby mjsmithz » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:38 am

I dunno but if there was ever a day I was hoping for a "Real Bad Day" its today and the next few days while my money is out of the market headed to vanguard from fidelity
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby Twins Fan » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:10 pm

I hope so... today is payday and I up'd my contribution to deferred comp recently... more shares for me!! :D
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby parsi1 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:19 pm

Today is a good day for me, I am contributing to 401K since it is a pay day.
A bad day in the market when it is a pay day it is a good day.!!!???!!!
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby stan1 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:30 pm

Waiting for livesoft to post after the market closes and let us know for sure whether it was a really bad day.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby livesoft » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:22 pm

kenyan wrote:Got a long way to go. The minimum drop for a ReallyBadDay is 2.5%.

+1
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby allsop » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:48 pm

For me it was a RSD: Real Sunny Day.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby OverTheHill » Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:02 pm

Seems not. On an unrelated note, the sky is blue and the sun is melting the last of the snow and ice, so all is well.
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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby EDN » Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:06 pm

Remind me again, why are we watching the intra-day movements on the stocks we own that we likely won't be touching for 2 or 3 decades? If you have money to invest, do it. If you need money, take it. Waiting for some arbitrary pull back of 2.5% or whatever, that could take place 15% higher than now, is a needless amount of portfolio micromanagement.

Just keepin it real.

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Re: Is today a RBD

Postby twist101 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 4:08 pm

Was inspired to create this Bogleheads propaganda (which leverages the British WWII propaganda):

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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby john94549 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 6:33 pm

As some have pointed out, trading on a "RBD" strategy is really market-timing on steroids.* That said, you can "buy on dips", without necessarily "selling on rips". One strategy is to buy on each cumulative "RBD" band (when Mr. Market is down 2.5%). without waiting for a re-balancing band. Re-balancing bands in a down market generally require market dips of 20 - 25% to trip, as noted by others. I have bought on dips as part of my core.

*To say the least, the math is complicated. First, one has to calculate the opportunity cost of funds on the sidelines. Waiting, as it were. Once you get beyond that, the next hurdle is entry and exit. Then entry again. Suffice it to say "it gets complicated".
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby gkaplan » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:21 pm

My portfolio today was down 0.34% today. That's with an approximate 60/40 equity/fixed income allocation, with 33% of my overall allocation devoted to foreign equities.That's not including my G fund. If that were included, I imagine my portfolio might even been up. Not a really bad day. Not even a bad day. Kind of a meh day.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby foxfirev5 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:23 pm

Wow. This stuff makes me wonder what will happen when we return to real volatility.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby Mill » Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:47 pm

...aaaaannnndddd...just for some perspective, the S&P500 ended down 6.7 points, or 0.43%.


No, this was not a Really Bad Day.


Just another day in your life that you may or may not have worried about your stock portion of your portfolio.

If you worried about it, you are being too aggressive. Do something about it. :D
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby bayview » Fri Apr 05, 2013 10:10 pm

Did something happen today?
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby pjstack » Sat Apr 06, 2013 2:57 am

I was lucky because today was the day my automatic monthly allotment to buy shares ($500) takes place. The way the market started out I thought I might get a really big bargain, but I just got a little bargain instead.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby xram » Sat Apr 06, 2013 5:32 am

Mill wrote:...aaaaannnndddd...just for some perspective, the S&P500 ended down 6.7 points, or 0.43%.


No, this was not a Really Bad Day.


Just another day in your life that you may or may not have worried about your stock portion of your portfolio.

If you worried about it, you are being too aggressive. Do something about it. :D


I don't agree that paying attention to your portfolio = worried = too aggressive.
If you are not saying that, my bad.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby john94549 » Sat Apr 06, 2013 6:38 am

Folks who snap up stuff off the "sale" rack at Nordstrom's get it right.

If you're investing for the long haul (as most are), you really, truly, like your "new money" to buy shares on the "sale" rack.

That said, this could be the "forever" top. A really, really, really bad day is when your employer match hits on the all-time-high in the Nikkei, 12/29/1989, and you happen to be Japanese.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby nisiprius » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:04 am

I believe the idea of "buying the dips" or "buying on RBD's" is flawed.

The dangerous thing about "buying the dips" thinking is that it incorporates assumptions about market behavior, relating to size of movements and time--assumptions that are rarely expressed, let alone tested. The mental danger is the idea that it must be good simply because it's a "dip." The word dip itself is dangerous because implies it is temporary and will not only be followed by a rise, but followed promptly by a rise. Similarly, "really bad day" implies that it's just a day, and that--as with personal mood swings--tomorrow will be better.

It is always possible that you've just sunk your last available dollars into a sudden -2.5% drop that is the start of a 1929-magnitude crash; the only reason for thinking it isn't is that such events aren't frequent, while 2.5% drops are frequent, so most 2.5% drops aren't the start of 90% crashes. The burden of proof on advocates is to show that investing on RBD's isn't going to increase your chances of buying into a crash--to a degree that, in the long run, balances the frequent small gains the strategy gives you.

The mental model of investing on a RBD is a statement about market psychology--the same kind of plausible statement as "a high dividend indicates a well-managed company." Let me see whether I can state it accurately. Those who advocate opportunistic purchases on RBD's, please wordsmith this for me so that it accurately states your point of view.

"There are no rational reasons for the market to drop more than -2.5% in a single day, because fresh information about the market as a whole, of that magnitude, can't possibly be obtained and processed that quickly. The whole stock market today can't possibly really be worth as much 2.5% less than yesterday. Therefore, a movement of about this size is a reliable indicator of an emotional market overreaction, an excessive response to some real news. Such a response is virtually certain to correct itself a few days later when people have had a chance to digest the actual numbers. Therefore, drops of about this size mean-revert quickly, forming a very-short-term "dip," not the start of a "crash." The size of the drop is important, because it is a filter that selectively and accurately signals emotional overreaction. A -0.1% drop doesn't work, because it is just random noise. A -15% drop doesn't work, because is a sign of real trouble, not emotional overreaction. But -2.5% drops are almost always just Mr. Market overreacting, and systematically investing extra amounts just after -2.5% drops will give you a long-term, consistent edge."
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby livesoft » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:20 am

Here is a chart with some RBDs from summer 2011. Can one identify them?
Image
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby livesoft » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:26 am

Here is a chart that includes the date range of the previous chart.
Image
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby livesoft » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:32 am

If one could have a Time Machine or 20/15 Hindsight, what days in 2011 would have been good days for rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting in all of 2011?
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby livesoft » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:35 am

nisiprius gives a good first-order interpretation of a -2.5% one-day move. Sometimes a -2.5% one-day change is not a ReallyBadDay.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby xram » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:48 am

livesoft wrote:nisiprius gives a good first-order interpretation of a -2.5% one-day move. Sometimes a -2.5% one-day change is not a ReallyBadDay.


xram wrote:Image
Last edited by xram on Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby protagonist » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:50 am

nisiprius wrote:I believe the idea of "buying the dips" or "buying on RBD's" is flawed.

The dangerous thing about "buying the dips" thinking is that it incorporates assumptions about market behavior, relating to size of movements and time--assumptions that are rarely expressed, let alone tested. The mental danger is the idea that it must be good simply because it's a "dip." The word dip itself is dangerous because implies it is temporary and will not only be followed by a rise, but followed promptly by a rise. Similarly, "really bad day" implies that it's just a day, and that--as with personal mood swings--tomorrow will be better.

It is always possible that you've just sunk your last available dollars into a sudden -2.5% drop that is the start of a 1929-magnitude crash; the only reason for thinking it isn't is that such events aren't frequent, while 2.5% drops are frequent, so most 2.5% drops aren't the start of 90% crashes. The burden of proof on advocates is to show that investing on RBD's isn't going to increase your chances of buying into a crash--to a degree that, in the long run, balances the frequent small gains the strategy gives you.

The mental model of investing on a RBD is a statement about market psychology--the same kind of plausible statement as "a high dividend indicates a well-managed company." Let me see whether I can state it accurately. Those who advocate opportunistic purchases on RBD's, please wordsmith this for me so that it accurately states your point of view.

"There are no rational reasons for the market to drop more than -2.5% in a single day, because fresh information about the market as a whole, of that magnitude, can't possibly be obtained and processed that quickly. The whole stock market today can't possibly really be worth as much 2.5% less than yesterday. Therefore, a movement of about this size is a reliable indicator of an emotional market overreaction, an excessive response to some real news. Such a response is virtually certain to correct itself a few days later when people have had a chance to digest the actual numbers. Therefore, drops of about this size mean-revert quickly, forming a very-short-term "dip," not the start of a "crash." The size of the drop is important, because it is a filter that selectively and accurately signals emotional overreaction. A -0.1% drop doesn't work, because it is just random noise. A -15% drop doesn't work, because is a sign of real trouble, not emotional overreaction. But -2.5% drops are almost always just Mr. Market overreacting, and systematically investing extra amounts just after -2.5% drops will give you a long-term, consistent edge."


Nisi makes a really good point, and I wish I had his wisdom back in 1999 (I think that was the year). Personal anecdote....the day the NASDAQ, which seemed to be perpetually climbing,.dropped from something like 5000 to about 3500 or 4000....people around me were panicking but I saw it as a "buying opportunity". And I kept seeing "buying opportunities" as it subsequently declined. It had to bounce back...always does....and I had a long time to wait. So I sunk a pile of money into the NASDAQ that day. That was about 14 years ago. In 'real" dollars, if I stayed in the NASDAQ, I'd probably still be down 40% or so. I'm not sure of the numbers but you get the general idea.

I still wonder if, statistically, one does well to buy on dips and vice versa. My guess is no, but others here are more well-versed.

Another one of my "brilliant" ideas in the 90s was to follow the closing of the Asian/European markets, which would close well before the NYSE would open. If they went up significantly, I would assume that the NYSE would correlate and follow so I would buy before the opening with the idea of selling in the PM. And vice versa. I didn't really put that into practice often enough to know if it worked or not, but it seemed to make sense to me at the time. Come to think of it, I wonder if that strategy has ever been investigated- maybe somebody here would know.

Anyway, now I am in plain old boring low-cost index funds and CDs, so I don't usually notice the rises and falls unless they smack me in the face....haven't looked at the Wall St Journal in years. Am I missing out on something? Who knows. I certainly have a lot more of my life back, and that is worth its weight in gold.
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby xram » Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:53 am

Random Musings wrote:RBD perhaps can be somewhat used with Shiller PE10.

Why would I want to buy on a RBD in 2000 when the Shiller PE10 was 40? There is a better chance of a falling knife falling a lot. OTOH, if it is a PE around 10, historically at least, the knife has less to fall. And a better chance of hitting the trampoline with more tightly strung coils.

At Shiller PE of 23 and change, I just would rebalance as normal and not play the RBD game domestically. Since internationals have a more attractive Shiller PE10, this may have a bit more merit.

RM


Maybe a combination metric?

Percent Decrease / Shiller PE

??

If this works, don't tell anybody...shhhhhhh
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby YDNAL » Sat Apr 06, 2013 9:05 am

antiqueman wrote:Is today going to be a RBD in either international or U. S. stocks?

I would like to talk about a really good day... that is, the day of a young (wo)man's first contribution to the S&P 500 in their 40x Plan.

From that day forward over the next 30, 40 years until that money is needed, assuming S&P 500 (S&P 90) 1926-2012 historical averages, it can grow 9.84% ANNUALLY. Indeed, that first purchase would be on a really good day and all the other stuff is rubbish (IMO)!
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby longview » Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:42 am

Anyone have a RBD twitter set-up? Or a website even? It would be pretty cool to get a push message on an RBD, as I don't really follow the markets daily.
(To color my comments: my situation is ER trying to make a large portfolio that is 99% taxable last 45 years)
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby pennstater2005 » Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:22 am

longview wrote:Anyone have a RBD twitter set-up? Or a website even? It would be pretty cool to get a push message on an RBD, as I don't really follow the markets daily.


Here you go livesoft. You could start your very own twitter feed :oops:
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby livesoft » Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:48 am

First I have to write the book, publish a blog, and hire top-gun consultants like Larry Ferri (no relation to Rick Ferri).
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby YDNAL » Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:50 am

pennstater2005 wrote:
longview wrote:Anyone have a RBD twitter set-up? Or a website even? It would be pretty cool to get a push message on an RBD, as I don't really follow the markets daily.

Here you go livesoft. You could start your very own twitter feed :oops:

And that suggestion coming from a poster known as longview. :)
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Re: Is today a RBD [Really Bad Day]

Postby xram » Sun Apr 07, 2013 11:01 am

longview wrote:Anyone have a RBD twitter set-up? Or a website even? It would be pretty cool to get a push message on an RBD, as I don't really follow the markets daily.



you can set up free account at yahoo finance and they will send you text messages alert if a fund/etf (of your choice) drops/increases below/above a cutoff percentage (of your choice)..

its free
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