Interesting. Thank you for the link. All I can say is, it's about time!
I retired in 2008, but a DB pension and a part time job mean I have not yet had to tap my savings. In the meantime I have come to appreciate that planning to withdraw from your nest egg is a totally different proposition than saving or accumulating. And, there is precious little good advice out there. Eventually I discovered Jim Otar, Michael Zwecher and then Christine Benz, so I think I now have a much better understanding.
I think that something like MMP (if I understand it correctly) is the best way to go. But, the success of a plan depends on future events, which are unknown. So, I firmly believe there is no "set and forget" strategy for decumulation. (There is, of course one for accumulation.) The plan should be monitored at least yearly.
The good thing about that is that bad things can only happen in the first year of the rest of your plan. Let's say your strategy is X years of cash, so you can be less affected by market downturns. Well, in normal circumstances you will annually replenish your cash to X years, rinse and repeat. It is only if something bad happens that you would question selling in a down market to replenish cash, or not rebalance into stocks, or whatever. By definition, if you recast the plan every year, the surprises only happen in the first year of the rest of your plan.
One issue that is never mentioned is the "pay it forward" risk. It is analogous to the sequence of returns risk.
When I look at my income needs and desires, they are very uneven. I retired early at age 58, and got a nice pension supplement. That supplement expires this month since I am age 62 and can get SS. But, I plan to delay claiming SS for the rest of the decade. At age 65 my company health care disappears and I have to get Medicare/aid. Our youngest starts college in the fall. I'd rather spend money on travel during my 60s than my 80s. My wife is 3 years younger than me, so she has a different timeline.
If I mash all of this together, I am looking at substantially bigger needs to use my savings in the next ten years than after that. The costs go down in my 70s, and then rise again due to medical care and to compensate for inflation. I know of no one who will make a plan that accounts for such variations.
4% and age in bonds are completely inadequate ideas.
Déjà Vu is not a prediction