bdpb wrote:Darts. No monkeys (lower costs. Don't have to buy bananas).![]()
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/
agill99 wrote:Just for clarity, I’m not talking about trading stocks but selecting individual stocks as a long-term (5 year minimum) investment. I ask because I am happy with my asset allocation and am looking to add some individual stocks, if I find one I think is a good long-term investment.
agill99 wrote:How do you “pick” your stocks?
I know that a lot of members of the forum have individual stocks in their portfolios and I am wondering how you select these. Is there a philosophy or rationale you use, e.g. high-yield dividend stocks?
Just for clarity, I’m not talking about trading stocks but selecting individual stocks as a long-term (5 year minimum) investment. I ask because I am happy with my asset allocation and am looking to add some individual stocks, if I find one I think is a good long-term investment.
Thanks in advance.
agill99 wrote:How do you “pick” your stocks?
agill99 wrote:How do you “pick” your stocks?
I know that a lot of members of the forum have individual stocks in their portfolios and I am wondering how you select these. Is there a philosophy or rationale you use, e.g. high-yield dividend stocks?
Just for clarity, I’m not talking about trading stocks but selecting individual stocks as a long-term (5 year minimum) investment. I ask because I am happy with my asset allocation and am looking to add some individual stocks, if I find one I think is a good long-term investment.
Thanks in advance.
3. This couple has more than $500,000 in after tax savings to get $10,000 in dividends - more if we believe they get a $600 foreign tax credit; and
donall wrote:I do stock picking for fun and use a very small part of savings. I use typical value criteria, stick to dividend stocks, and sell when the stocks have gained in value over 25% and are long term gains. This lets me stay focused on index investing and bonds/CDs.
pennstater2005 wrote:donall wrote:I do stock picking for fun and use a very small part of savings. I use typical value criteria, stick to dividend stocks, and sell when the stocks have gained in value over 25% and are long term gains. This lets me stay focused on index investing and bonds/CDs.
How do you define long term gains?
statsguy wrote:pennstater2005 wrote:donall wrote:I do stock picking for fun and use a very small part of savings. I use typical value criteria, stick to dividend stocks, and sell when the stocks have gained in value over 25% and are long term gains. This lets me stay focused on index investing and bonds/CDs.
How do you define long term gains?
I am pretty sure donall meant that the capital gains would be treated as long term (ie the stock had been held for at least one year). This assumes the dividend stock is held in a taxable account.
When we buy an individual stock we intend to hold it forever. We have sold stocks when they no longer fit into our plan or, more likely, the dividend has been put at risk. Morningstar says our average holding period is about 15 years (that we have had a turnover of 0.68% over the last eight years).
Personally, I do not think that rules such as selling when you have gained over 25% (or any other number) would work for me. That is because such a rule would increase our turnover (and costs) and increase the amount of time I spend evaluating stocks.
Best wishes for the new year to everyone
Stats
agill99 wrote:How do you “pick” your stocks?
I know that a lot of members of the forum have individual stocks in their portfolios and I am wondering how you select these. Is there a philosophy or rationale you use, e.g. high-yield dividend stocks?
Just for clarity, I’m not talking about trading stocks but selecting individual stocks as a long-term (5 year minimum) investment. I ask because I am happy with my asset allocation and am looking to add some individual stocks, if I find one I think is a good long-term investment.
Thanks in advance.
"If you, like Walter Mitty--still fantasize that you can and will beat the pros, you'll need both luck and prayer." -- Charles Ellis, author of "Winning the Loser's Game."
"I have little confidence, even in the ability of analysts, let alone untrained investors, to select common stocks that will give better than average results."-- Benjamin Graham
"Picking individual stocks is like volleying with the Williams sisters." -- Wm Bernstein, author of "The Four Pillars of Wisdom." (Professional investors with large staffs and vast research budgets do over 90% of each days trading volume.)
"Are you smarter than the average professional investor? Probably not." -- John Bogle
"There's no way that spending a few hours a week looking at individual securities is going to equip an investor to compete with the incredibly talented, highly qualified, extremely educated individuals who spend their entire professional careers trying to pick stocks." -- David Swensen, Chairman of Yale Investments.
"The notion that most average people and non-investment professionals can, with minimal effort, beat the best full-time, experienced money managers is, how should I say, ludicrous and absurd." -- Eric Tyson, author of Mutual Funds for Dummies
pennstater2005 wrote:donall wrote:I do stock picking for fun and use a very small part of savings. I use typical value criteria, stick to dividend stocks, and sell when the stocks have gained in value over 25% and are long term gains. This lets me stay focused on index investing and bonds/CDs.
How do you define long term gains?
Petrocelli wrote:Use this screen: (1) Beta less than 1; (2) dividend yield greater than 2%; (3) PE ratio of less than 20; and (4) market cap greater than $10 billion.
Put the dividends in cash. Every few months, buy one of the 5 stocks with the lowest balance.
Here's a sample portfolio:
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/PortfolioSharing/SharedPortfolioSnapshot.aspx?q=C9791DD47C472479
bdpb wrote:Petrocelli wrote:Use this screen: (1) Beta less than 1; (2) dividend yield greater than 2%; (3) PE ratio of less than 20; and (4) market cap greater than $10 billion.
Put the dividends in cash. Every few months, buy one of the 5 stocks with the lowest balance.
Here's a sample portfolio:
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/PortfolioSharing/SharedPortfolioSnapshot.aspx?q=C9791DD47C472479
Darn, now that the secret sauce is out we'll have to switch to a new recipe.
There's always the "Dogs of the Dow".
Presumably, one would need to sell these stocks once they no longer meet the criteria, right?
Or you could buy a Large Cap Value fund if you wanted to own something other than market weight.
Listen to Taylor, he is a sage.
Petrocelli wrote:bdpb wrote:Petrocelli wrote:Use this screen: (1) Beta less than 1; (2) dividend yield greater than 2%; (3) PE ratio of less than 20; and (4) market cap greater than $10 billion.
Put the dividends in cash. Every few months, buy one of the 5 stocks with the lowest balance.
Here's a sample portfolio:
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/PortfolioSharing/SharedPortfolioSnapshot.aspx?q=C9791DD47C472479
Darn, now that the secret sauce is out we'll have to switch to a new recipe.
There's always the "Dogs of the Dow".
Presumably, one would need to sell these stocks once they no longer meet the criteria, right?
Or you could buy a Large Cap Value fund if you wanted to own something other than market weight.
Listen to Taylor, he is a sage.
I try not to sell stocks, and haven't done so in a couple years.
With respect to buying a large cap value ETF, you should note that according to M*, this stock portfolio has outperformed the large value category by 3.25% per year over the last 3 years. I have no idea why it is doing so.
In the end, I have a stock portfolio with low volatility that behaves very differently than my mutual fund portfolio. Exclusive of returns, I like its diversification benefits.
Valuethinker wrote:Petrocelli wrote:bdpb wrote:Petrocelli wrote:Use this screen: (1) Beta less than 1; (2) dividend yield greater than 2%; (3) PE ratio of less than 20; and (4) market cap greater than $10 billion.
Put the dividends in cash. Every few months, buy one of the 5 stocks with the lowest balance.
Here's a sample portfolio:
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/PortfolioSharing/SharedPortfolioSnapshot.aspx?q=C9791DD47C472479
Darn, now that the secret sauce is out we'll have to switch to a new recipe.
There's always the "Dogs of the Dow".
Presumably, one would need to sell these stocks once they no longer meet the criteria, right?
Or you could buy a Large Cap Value fund if you wanted to own something other than market weight.
Listen to Taylor, he is a sage.
I try not to sell stocks, and haven't done so in a couple years.
With respect to buying a large cap value ETF, you should note that according to M*, this stock portfolio has outperformed the large value category by 3.25% per year over the last 3 years. I have no idea why it is doing so.
In the end, I have a stock portfolio with low volatility that behaves very differently than my mutual fund portfolio. Exclusive of returns, I like its diversification benefits.
This is not stupid.
The latest anomaly discovered is the 'low Beta anomaly'.
Question: now we know the anomaly exists, does it persist? It is relatively easy to duplicate.
- what causes you to sell?
- if you expanded it internationally (say Nestle, but lots of reasons not to own Nestle right now) then you might add to the performance of that list.
GE is the one that surprises me it is missing. I guess recent years have had too great a toll.
I would want to own financials. Berkshire Hathaway for one. Probably another bank. Toronto Dominion perhaps.
wesleymouch wrote:I have legacy stocks from my preBoglehead days. They have big gains but I don't want to pay the taxes.
bdpb wrote:I hope you aren't suggesting that I called this stupid, are you? If not, why did you include my quotes?
Anomaly sounds a lot like a secret sauce to me.
Didn't I ask the same question about selling? And like you asked, "where are the International stocks?" Or is this a US only anomaly?
[/quote]What I don't really understand about a method like this is the arbitrariness of the numbers used? What makes a 2% dividend relevant? Why isn't 1.8% or 2.2% better? My same lack of understanding applies to the PE and market cap numbers.
bdpb wrote:
..."where are the International stocks?" Or is this a US only anomaly?
What I don't really understand about a method like this is the arbitrariness of the numbers used? What makes a 2% dividend relevant? Why isn't 1.8% or 2.2% better? My same lack of understanding applies to the PE and market cap numbers.
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