Short of clairvoyance there is no right answer for this, but I am trying to make sure my unknowns are all unknowns, and there are no knowns I'm missing because I'm such a newb.
I'm trying, of course, to balance gain with risk, but the end of the year is approaching and I'm weighing the now vs. 2013.
I have quite a bit of a single stock, JEF. I am not planning on holding onto it forever. My cost basis is 5% (no typo) of what the stock is worth now.
1) It has had a decent year and a good 4th quarter. Today it was 18 and change per share.
2) Its dividends are being paid out this quarter to shareholders who owned it on the 21 Dec (today).
3) It is being bought by Leucadia, LUK, which is 23.84 a share today. I think this is taking place in ?March 2013?
4) LUK will be offering 0.81 shares of LUK for each share of JEF, **but I have no idea which day this will be set at, and don't know if anyone does**, so I don't really know exactly how much the JEF stock will be worth. It won't be radically different, but with enough shares this is not nothing.
5) The more I read, the more it seems the capital gain rates will go up 5% next year.
6) The dividends JEF has been providing will no longer be qualified, quite possibly, and taxed as income.
7) My tax bracket could well be going up.
I am inclined to think there are too many risks and unknowns for me to be hanging on to 1/7 of my portfolio just to hope I can get a better price in the next couple of years. Is this situation as shifting as it seems to my novice eyes?