letsgobobby wrote:In trying to estimate investment income this year I had been assuming a dividend rate more or less the same as last year. With increasing numbers and dollars of special dividends or accelerated dividends, at what point will there be a significant impact on distributions from total market, 500, or other funds/ETFs?
Bobby: I hold around 30 individual stocks as the US Large Cap portion of my portfolio, and I track the dividend payments (in Excel) to be able to calculate my total return. (This also helps me monitor dividends to help optimize tax efficiency).
I took a look at some data for you, but this certainly isn't scientific or a large sample size. The issues I expect to see are 1) companies that normally pay a January dividend accelerating it into December, and 2) companies paying a large one-time dividend in December.
Of the companies I hold, 7 paid a dividend in January 2012. Six have announced their upcoming dividend. Three companies (Comcast, Southwest Airlines, Whole Foods) are keeping their dividend in January 2013. Three companies (Cisco, Fedex, Precision Castparts) are moving their upcoming dividend to December 2012. The final company - Danaher - is expected to announce their dividend intentions on December 15th.
Not a single company of mine has announced a special one-time dividend for December 2012.
My gut feel is that the dividend from your mutual fund in Q4 will be noticably higher than it might otherwise be, but not by a very material amount.