Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

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Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Panzer2AD » Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:51 pm

Does anyone out there subscribe to Dan Wiener's Vanguard Independant Advisor newsletter? If so, is his information accurate?
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby mhc » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:20 pm

Welcome to the forum.

If you put his name in the search box in the upper right corner of the page, you will get some previous threads. Here are the first two the search returned:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=94809
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=91289
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby nisiprius » Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:57 pm

He does not follow the Bogleheads investment philosophy. He is what I will call a "traditional smartypants advisor." He advocates a fund-picking strategy based on the use of actively managed mutual funds and jumping around from one to another according to a system he calls "hot hands." In his own words (but my boldfacing,)
The "hot hands" strategy flies on the face of mutual fund dogma and the SEC which says that past performance is no indicator of future performance.
The funds he likes to use do happen to be Vanguard funds. He has gotten himself into trouble in the past with Vanguard over the name of his newsletter, which was, I believe, something like "The Vanguard Adviser." He backed off and renamed it "The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors." He has also called himself "The Bogleheads' Boglehead," which seems misleading since his investment philosophy does not resemble that of John C. Bogle.

I have no doubt that he is a close and keen observer of Vanguard's actively-managed funds. Since I don't use any of Vanguard's actively-managed funds, those insights are of no interest to me. Since I do think that past performance is no indicator of future performance, I am not interested in any "hot hands" strategy.

He uses a sneaky technique in which he promises free reports--but to get it you have to give a lot of information, and what you actually get is a thin, sketchy, non-actionable report which is really just an ad for his newsletter. If I recall correctly, the information that I thought would be in this report wasn't--it was pushed off a step further, and said the information would be in a "free" report that would be sent to me as soon as I signed up for a paid subscription to his newsletter. Or something like that.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby sperry8 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 7:47 pm

I've been an on again off again subscriber to his newsletter over the years. The guy is pretty good. Not amazing, but he definitely helps me add some active funds to my index funds and his advice has been pretty good. For example, he's a longtime advocate of the PRIMECAP team and their funds and this has been pretty good advice. He isn't always right however, as he advised us to get out of Emerging markets at the bottom (luckily I didn't). He's since bought back in.

For the price of the tax deductible newsletter, I think it's worth it every other year.

You can also subscribe to his free newsletter which gives a small taste of what he offers. No need to jump through hoops or provide info to get it. Just an email will suffice.

Good luck
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby nisiprius » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:03 pm

New from Nisiprius Investments Publications: our newsletter not only tells you the best actively-managed Vanguard funds, it also tells you

  • the best seafood entrée at Ruth's Chris Steak House
  • the Hummer model and option package with the highest fuel efficiency
  • the most practical item in the Hammacher Schlemmer catalog
  • the best Stanley screwdriver for pounding nails
  • the greatest recorded accordion performance of Mozart's "Eine Kleine Nachtmusik"
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby sometimesinvestor » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:25 pm

First where does nisiprius live such that he can send a post at 9:03 when it is not yet 9 eastern standard time. Is it Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island or somewhere more obsure.

Second how do I get the newsletter? It seems to tell me almost everything I want to Know."
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby VictoriaF » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:31 pm

sometimesinvestor wrote:First where does nisiprius live such that he can send a post at 9:03 when it is not yet 9 eastern standard time. Is it Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island or somewhere more obsure.


Have you turned the clock back a couple weeks ago? My display shows Nisiprius's post at 20:03, the nostalgia of Mozart on accordion notwithstanding.

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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby peppers » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:46 pm

Nisiprius DNA has been cloned, synthesized, encrypted and embedded into the grid. He could be anywhere or everywhere.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby telemark » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:49 pm

nisiprius wrote:the greatest recorded accordion performance of Mozart's "Eine Kleine Nachtmusik"


The Cambridge Buskers?
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby gkaplan » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:56 pm

Speaking of Mozart, right now I'm listening to his bassoon concerto. The perfect music for a rainy evening.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby abuss368 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:36 pm

Panzer2AD wrote:Does anyone out there subscribe to Dan Wiener's Vanguard Independant Advisor newsletter? If so, is his information accurate?


Hi Panzer2AD,

I have seen a few sample issues of the newsletter. It appears that he focuses on active/managed funds with Vanguard. The key is there is a market timing element. If one does not count the Intermediate Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund (or the Inflation Bond Fund for that matter), we do not invest in active funds.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby EyeYield » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:55 pm

First where does nisiprius live such that he can send a post at 9:03 when it is not yet 9 eastern standard time.

In the future.
Second how do I get the newsletter? It seems to tell me almost everything I want to Know."

I agree, I've been pounding nails with the wrong screw driver for years, now finally....

I just hope the newsletter subscription includes free digital shipping and handling.
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby statsguy » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:12 pm

I was a subscriber for about 8 years. It is a decent newsletter and there is a very good forum there too. I let my subscription lapse two months ago and the funds in the growth model were

IVOG S&P Midcap 400 Growth ETF
VASVX Selected Value
VDIGX Dividend Growth
VHCOX Capital Opportunity
VGHCX Health Care
VFSTX Short-Term Investment Grade
VEIEX Emerging Markets

Dan Wiener added Emerging Markets to the portfolio long before it was a respected Boglehead fund. When Dan added it to the model most here said it was too volatile to own. I bought it and that purchase alone has paid for the subscription many times.

I have never understood the hatred most here on Bogleheads have towards Dan Wiener and his newsletter. He is basically buy-and-hold. For the eight years I was a member he averaged about two trades per year.

Stats
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby celia » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:21 pm

I also subscribe sporadically. (When you let your subscription expire, he offers better rates.) I like his thought process and a different look at Vanguard funds and figure if I can avoid the 10% worst-performing managed funds, that's worth the price. I don't limit myself to index funds.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Levett » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:23 pm

"I have never understood the hatred most here on Bogleheads have towards Dan Wiener and his newsletter"

Some folks define their identity by identifying an "other."

Wiener is their "other."

Lev

P.S. Some also don't like the lack of "curb appeal" of his publication.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby umfundi » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:44 pm

Panzer2AD wrote:Does anyone out there subscribe to Dan Wiener's Vanguard Independant Advisor newsletter? If so, is his information accurate?

One wonders how a not enthusiastic response becomes a uniform characterization of "hatred".

And, by the way, I have never used a Stanley screwdriver to pound nails. I will admit to using a hotel toothbrush as a corkscrew.*

Keith

* I solved that problem by stealing a plastic corkscrew from the Heathrow Hilton that easily passes security in my carry-on.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Rob5TCP » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:21 pm

I have subscribed several times, in the past to his newsletter. While I did find it informative, I was turned off by his constant sending me advertisements on making 100% more than your average Vanguard Investor (with less risk). Monthly updates show that for the most part his returns are about on par with their index benchmarks. He had a couple of good years in the late 90's that he did very well.

Since then I believe he has been even or a little behind with the index funds (excluding his hot hands - which anyone would be crazy to put all their money in one non-diversified fund).

No where do I see anything even vaguely approaching the numbers he claims. His articles are interesting and I may yet subscribe again.
The most I would pay would be $99 a year (when I got it, I paid $79 per year).
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby mickeyd » Sat Dec 01, 2012 3:09 pm

I was a subscriber for about 8 years.


I have never read his newsletter. Can you recall if he ever referred to this forum (Bogleheads) in any of his writings? If so, was it a positive or negative reference.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby statsguy » Sat Dec 01, 2012 3:56 pm

mickeyd wrote:
I was a subscriber for about 8 years.


I have never read his newsletter. Can you recall if he ever referred to this forum (Bogleheads) in any of his writings? If so, was it a positive or negative reference.


To my knowledge he has never referred to the Bogleheads forum.

Stats

PS... I wish I had not written "hatred" in my first post... I think that over states the feelings of most Bogleheads.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Rob5TCP » Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:09 pm

Panzer2AD wrote:Does anyone out there subscribe to Dan Wiener's Vanguard Independant Advisor newsletter? If so, is his information accurate?


What do you mean by accurate. His claims, of course, are anything but accurate. His articles I would describe more as informative than accurate. As for his predictions, there are worse ways to go. He is pretty close to an indexer. I didn't buy it for his portfolio, but for his articles, which I did state are informative.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:52 pm

Many years ago Dan Wiener steered me to Vanguard. I thank him.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby investor » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:43 pm

Have been a subscriber to the newsletter for quite a few years. As others have said: Dan provides a good point of view and there is a good Forum. I do not follow his portfolios as I do not follow all ideas found on this Forum. I believe the $99 a year is a reasonable fee for the knowledge gained. I am not an indexer only investor and use what seems correct for the situation. Currently I am happy with a heavy mix of Wellington and Wellesley.

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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Petrocelli » Sun Dec 02, 2012 1:24 pm

I subscribed for 5 years and thought it was a good magazine on Vanguard funds. I got some good ideas from the publication, and thought it was worth the price of the subscription.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby pjstack » Sun Dec 02, 2012 4:13 pm

Petrocelli wrote:I subscribed for 5 years and thought it was a good magazine on Vanguard funds. I got some good ideas from the publication, and thought it was worth the price of the subscription.


In the old days Adrian Nenu would have come roaring out of his lair when you said that!
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Sun Dec 02, 2012 4:37 pm

pjstack wrote:
Petrocelli wrote:I subscribed for 5 years and thought it was a good magazine on Vanguard funds. I got some good ideas from the publication, and thought it was worth the price of the subscription.


In the old days Adrian Nenu would have come roaring out of his lair when you said that!

Where is Adrian?
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby rustymutt » Sun Dec 02, 2012 4:54 pm

Can anyone say with out a doubt the newsletter made them more money than they'd have made on their own, in multiple years? If so, state it was Dan whose exceptional inside knowledge that led to this achievement. I personally don't buy it. Dan has tried for years to sale me his concepts, and I've resisted easily.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:02 pm

rustymutt wrote:Can anyone say with out a doubt the newsletter made them more money than they'd have made on their own, in multiple years? If so, state it was Dan whose exceptional inside knowledge that led to this achievement. I personally don't buy it. Dan has tried for years to sale me his concepts, and I've resisted easily.

You could have done better with Dan.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Phineas J. Whoopee » Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:47 pm

nisiprius wrote:New from Nisiprius Investments Publications: ...

This is a very, very serious followup to nisi's very, very serious post.

I and my forebears have subscribed to this new newsletter for 93 years. Each week it has provided us with valuable, actionable investing insights, all profitable.

In fact, in only about four or five more months we expect to have reaped enough to finally pay all the back subscription fees we've owed for so long.

PJW

[Mr. prius, may I have that bowl of cabbage soup you spoke of now, please?]
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Petrocelli » Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:13 am

rustymutt wrote:Can anyone say with out a doubt the newsletter made them more money than they'd have made on their own, in multiple years? If so, state it was Dan whose exceptional inside knowledge that led to this achievement.


Unless one followed the DW portfolio strictly, that would be hard to do.

I had a large allocation to International Explorer (the hot hands fund for several years), and made a good deal of profit. I would not have done that on my own.

I know DW prefers International Growth to International Index. I think that advice has also paid off.

Also, I don't think DW has any "exceptional inside knowledge."
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby rustymutt » Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:17 pm

You could have done better with Dan.[/quote]

Some did worse with Dan too, I'm certain.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:39 pm

rustymutt wrote:You could have done better with Dan.


Some did worse with Dan too, I'm certain.[/quote]
You may be right. But I did well.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Wagnerjb » Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:08 pm

statsguy wrote:
PS... I wish I had not written "hatred" in my first post... I think that over states the feelings of most Bogleheads.


I suspect your memories are more colored by the conversations we used to have at the old Diehard forum at Morningstar. There was certainly more animosity on that forum. On the old forum, Bogleheads wasted an inordinate amount of time debating the proponents of active investing, high-cost funds, poor diversification and market timing. Often, Dan Wiener's newsletter was used as a pawn in those discussions....thus the antagonism.

Contrast that with this fantastic forum. The vast majority of Bogleheads understand the superiority of passive low-cost investing, and we waste very little time trying to explain the Boglehead principles to those who are incapable or unwilling of understanding and accepting them. This leaves us more time to educate new Bogleheads, and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.

Best wishes.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Petrocelli » Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:59 pm

Wagnerjb wrote:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.


Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:25 pm

Petrocelli wrote:
Wagnerjb wrote:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.


Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.

Thanks to DAN, I got a 14K Omega Seamaster, not quite $5000.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby umfundi » Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:11 pm

chaz wrote:
Petrocelli wrote:
Wagnerjb wrote:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.


Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.

Thanks to DAN, I got a 14K Omega Seamaster, not quite $5000.

I never heard of Dan, but I do have my Dad's 1968 Omega Seamaster day/date, engraved on the occasion of 30 years of service. This exact watch:
https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/imag ... XxnzL-cvCg

Glad to hear it's part of a prudent portfolio!

Keith
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby BertB » Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:44 pm

Back when I was in my 20's I worked with a guy named Dan. To my knowledge, he never posed for a cheesy publicity photo backed by a conspicuous American flag like Dan Wiener did, but my friend was a really, really nice guy. I'll never forget him.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:13 am

BertB wrote:Back when I was in my 20's I worked with a guy named Dan. To my knowledge, he never posed for a cheesy publicity photo backed by a conspicuous American flag like Dan Wiener did, but my friend was a really, really nice guy. I'll never forget him.

Dan Wiener is just trying to make a living.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Rob5TCP » Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:21 am

Here is Madsinger's monthly report comparing how different strategies have
fared over the years.
As was stated, Dan did very well late 90's.
Pretty close to the indexes since then.


This chart tracks his various portfolios:
Newsletter-g is his growth portfolio
Newsletter-cg is his conservative growth

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=105083
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Jerilynn » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:40 am

rustymutt wrote:Can anyone say with out a doubt the newsletter made them more money than they'd have made on their own,


Dan Wiener can. :twisted:
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby abuss368 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:51 am

Petrocelli wrote:
Wagnerjb wrote:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.


Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.


Yes! Petrocelli's $5,000 watch. Now there is something I have not heard about in a while.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:00 am

abuss368 wrote:
Petrocelli wrote:
Wagnerjb wrote:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.


Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.


Yes! Petrocelli's $5,000 watch. Now there is something I have not heard about in a while.

He denies it being a $5,000 watch.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby VictoriaF » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:05 am

chaz wrote:
abuss368 wrote:
Petrocelli wrote:
Wagnerjb wrote:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.


Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.


Yes! Petrocelli's $5,000 watch. Now there is something I have not heard about in a while.

He denies it being a $5,000 watch.


We can bring in another Weiner, Anthony Weiner. That should be lively.

Victoria
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:37 am

VictoriaF wrote:
chaz wrote:
abuss368 wrote:
Petrocelli wrote:
Wagnerjb wrote:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.


Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.


Yes! Petrocelli's $5,000 watch. Now there is something I have not heard about in a while.

He denies it being a $5,000 watch.


We can bring in another Weiner, Anthony Weiner. That should be lively.

Victoria

Are you suggesting or promoting a Wiener fight or a roast?
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby sscritic » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:51 am

chaz wrote:Thanks to DAN, I got a 14K Omega Seamaster, not quite $5000.

I always thought 14k was more than 5k, but then I don't subscribe to any newsletters.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Levett » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:10 pm

Uh, 14K gold? :happy

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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby sscritic » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:12 pm

Levett wrote:Uh, 14K gold? :happy

Should I have used a smilie? I thought my intent was obvious, but I guess not.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby VictoriaF » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:12 pm

Wagnerjb:... and the few Dan Wiener threads just die a slow death after a few answers.

Petrocelli: Maybe we could get this one up to few hundred posts if we discuss $5,000 watches.

abuss368: Yes! Petrocelli's $5,000 watch. Now there is something I have not heard about in a while.

chaz: He denies it being a $5,000 watch.

VictoriaF: We can bring in another Weiner, Anthony Weiner. That should be lively.

chaz wrote:Victoria
Are you suggesting or promoting a Wiener fight or a roast?

Weiner vanity.

Victoria
Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Levett » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:24 pm

ss-

yes.

one never knows. :wink:

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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby chaz » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:44 pm

Levett wrote:Uh, 14K gold? :happy

Lev

Yep.
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Re: Dan Wiener's Vanguard Newsletter

Postby Petrocelli » Wed Dec 05, 2012 5:23 pm

On a serious note...

I manage a 401(k) plan, among other job duties.

When investors ask me how to invest, consistent with Boglehead precepts, I usually tell them to buy a Target Fund based on the year they will retire.

I have never once told someone to subscribe to Dan Wiener, and follow his portfolios.

However, if someone told me they were going to subscribe to Dan Wiener, I would not dissuade them. They would be buying a portfolio of low cost Vanguard funds, making minor changes, and would learn something about investing.

Stats described the position of many Bogleheads re DW as "hatred." I would describe the Boglehead position as "irrational." Given all the dopey things an investor can potentially do, following DW is not even close to the top of the list. As madsinger has demonstrated, they would get pretty good returns.
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