Search found 51072 matches

by nisiprius
Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.
Replies: 59
Views: 4786

Re: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.

i'm not going to take a real look at this but one thing to watch out for in this sort of claim is whether or not they are including dividend returns or are they only comparing to the S&P's change in price. It's a good point, but since the author is a professor with publications in peer-reviewed journals, and because this one did appear in a peer-reviewed journal, I'd expect it to be OK. We can check. https://imgur.com/mT2LO4r.png First of all, "cumulative wealth index" should be total return. $1,000 growing to $3,700.45 in ten years = 13.98% CAGR and $1,000 growing to $2,443.46 in ten years = 9.35% CAGR, confirming that the "average annual return" numbers are total return. Second, we can check the S&P 500 number...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 13, 2024 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.
Replies: 59
Views: 4786

Re: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.

the_wiki wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 11:52 am Did their actual clients outperform S&P500 index funds?
THIS.
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 13, 2024 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.
Replies: 59
Views: 4786

Re: Is Raymond James beating the SP500? That's what they are claiming.

If you can provide the ticker of the RJ fund a comparison can be done. I think this "report" is for actively picking stocks.. and conveniently only reports the results from 1993 to 2002. And of course, no mention of fees. It sort of does: Calculations done for the Journal by Zacks Investment Research in Chicago take into account capital gains or losses, dividends and theoretical commissions of 1% on each trade. I haven't been able to check the actual paper, but it was published in the Journal of Investing in 2004. The abstract from the published article is: Examination of performance over 1993–2002 indicates that average quarterly and cumulative returns of stocks recommended by brokerage firms are slightly below the returns of th...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BND or Stable fund
Replies: 106
Views: 10946

Re: BND or Stable fund

That’s just not how investments work. Sometimes things go down at the same time. The only way to do what you propose would have been to also hold a short position in stocks, so that it would go up when stocks went down. NOW is when everyone is telling us that. Surely no one did, prior to 2022. 2007: Scenario Three: Stocks and bonds are both down. 2014: Stocks and bonds have zero correlation, not negative correlation. There is no consistent long-term tendency for bonds to move in the opposite direction as stocks, although anything can happen over short periods of time. Because diversification is hard to explain, there is a universal tendency to use a misleading illustration. It's not correct to say "bonds zig when stocks zag." Wha...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return
Replies: 33
Views: 3859

Re: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return

naturewalker420 wrote: Sun Feb 25, 2024 10:18 am...Gold protects your purchasing power in that aspect of its return is 0% real because gold itself is the money. Currencies lose value over time against gold resulting in the "rising fiat price of gold". So I am in agreement with 10% allocation to gold to help risk adjusted returns.
The worst price inflation in the history of the CPI took place around 1920-1925 when the US was on the gold standard and the dollar was equivalent to gold.
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what does the "11" mean in this video?
Replies: 8
Views: 1235

Re: what does the "11" mean in this video?

I think it's a screwup. I think the idea is that the dark slice represents Steve's share of the company, and the light cross-hatched remainder represents nine shares owned by other investors... and the "11" should be "9."
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How is a broker going to make money off me?
Replies: 62
Views: 6052

Re: How is a broker going to make money off me?

I think this is right. Don't have an account at Fidelity and am not an expert so watch for corrections, but... If you have a regular cash account and you don't sign up for securities lending and you buy individual shares in TSLA, they can't lend them out. They have a voluntary program you can sign up for, in which you can agree to let Fidelity lend them out, under supposedly safe conditions, and you get paid for it. I think if you have a margin account part of the deal is that they can lend them out??? In a cash account where you didn't sign up for securities lending, if you buy shares of an ETF or a mutual fund that owns TSLA, they can't lend out the shares of the ETF. But the ETF itself can lend out shares of TSLA or its other holdings to...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Given Haiti Situation, is Dominican Republic safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 32735

Re: Given Haiti Situation, is Dominican Republic safe?

Would you have been afraid to vacation in Florida during the Cuban Revolution?
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 650
Views: 46392

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Matt Levine's latest "Money Stuff" column adds a couple of wrinkles to the story. He points us to a long analysis of the unfolding story by Mary Childs and Justina Lee in Bloomberg, unpaywalled copy at Upstarts Challenge a Foundation of Modern Investing , well worth a read if you're following the story. Among other things it makes the connection between the Akey, Robertson and Simutin paper, and Mathias Hasler's work. Hasler says his findings don’t mean that Fama and French were hunting for a good result. “They’re very smart, and they know about the dangers of data mining,” he says, adding that they have a reputation for the genuine pursuit of knowledge. “Another explanation is that maybe they simply went for a set of decisions, k...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mouse nest in engine compartment after recent service
Replies: 27
Views: 2195

Re: Mouse nest in engine compartment after recent service

bob60014 wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:14 am Its more likely that they didn't do the inspection.
Our last oil change and "multipoint inspection" included tire rotation. I think the tires really were rotated but maybe I'll put some marks on them next time. Anyway the inspection sheet showed that all five tires had been checked and had the right pressure, including the space-saver doughnut spare, including 60 psi in the space-saver doughnut spare.

Our car doesn't have a spare.
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How is a broker going to make money off me?
Replies: 62
Views: 6052

Re: How is a broker going to make money off me?

Going with any broker is going to expose you to targeted marketing. I know that I respond to such marketing. Some of the most effective is just a subtle everpresent reminder of the existence of various products or services. Actually the "featured ETF" screen I showed above has two "interesting" choices. The other is the first in their group of four is FELC, the Fidelity Enhanced Large-cap ETF, is less than a year old. It is probably not an ETF that would be in the forefront of your mind if Fidelity didn't show it to you. Whether it is objectively worthy of being a "featured" ETF I don't know. What I do know is that I was surprised to see it, because FELC is an ETF conversion of FLCEX, the Fidelity Enhanced Larg...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How is a broker going to make money off me?
Replies: 62
Views: 6052

Re: How is a broker going to make money off me?

It's an interesting question. I may be naïve or uninformed, but I see only three obvious ways. Before explaining more, let me say I think Fidelity is a pretty clean company, and they make their money off you by earning it honestly by inducing you to buy good products. The first is if you happen to choose to use Fidelity's own funds or ETFs. They make money in the expense ratio, and possibly from securities lending within the fund. (Even if you use someone else's, they have partnership deals with some other firms--I'm 99.9% sure that if you buy an iShares ETF at Fidelity, Fidelity gets a kickback from iShares0. The second is that I assume--haven't been with Fidelity in a long time--that there's a settlement account and that it's a Fidelity m...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confused--Part D (Drug Plan) Much More for Certain Prescriptions than Originally Quoted
Replies: 15
Views: 1209

Re: Confused--Part D (Drug Plan) Much More for Certain Prescriptions than Originally Quoted

This seems to be happening lately. It sucks. I have no idea what to do about it but fortunately none of mine are worth fussing about. I don't even know how to go back and "prove" that the prices are different from what was shown last year--I forgot to take a screenshot of the relevant price. I copied it by hand into a spreadsheet so I know it's not my memory.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treasuries - Up or Down rest of 2024
Replies: 20
Views: 1873

Re: Treasuries - Up or Down rest of 2024

Yes, treasuries will definitely be up or down during the rest in 2024, unless they do not move at all. In April of 2014, Bloomberg polled 68 economists for their forecasts for what would happen over the next six months to the ten-year Treasury yield. 68 out of 68 of them said it would rise, the only difference being how much. It went down. Larry Swedroe used to have a great annual column at the start of the year, in which he would list about ten "sure things" that everybody "knew" were sure to happen during the coming year. Inflation would go up, or whatever. Then at the end of the year he would do his best to score which had come true. It was almost always less than half. Do not be fooled by things just because "ev...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?
Replies: 156
Views: 10621

Re: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?

I didn't know this, but Patients can change insurance only during end-of-year enrollment periods or at the time of “qualifying life events,” such as a divorce or job change. But insurers’ contracts with doctors, hospitals and pharmaceutical companies (or their middlemen, so-called pharmacy benefit managers) can change abruptly at any time. Source: How your in-network health coverage can vanish before you know it. I think that would apply to some Medicare Advantage plans. It would, but if you receive care from a provider who leaves the network, I believe that is a qualifying event for guaranteed issue of Medigap or to change to a different Advantage plan. Assuming you're right, I don't see how this would apply to Medigap (Medicare supplemen...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The classic dilemma between income and growth... Where should I be?
Replies: 40
Views: 2448

Re: The classic dilemma between income and growth... Where should I be?

Here's what you might be missing. That "juicy" dividend is being squeezed out of the orange, and not all of it is being replaced, and the orange is being squashed to a pulp. More juice is squeezed out than is being made. They are paying out too much in fund dividends, and the price per share is continuously eroding. I'm not clear from your posting whether you fully understand this and are saying "I know that but even so," or whether you have been taken in by the euphemistic marketing-like phrase "high yield." The price per share of a high-quality bond fund like Total Bond has been essentially flat; it's been within around $10/share for its whole life. The price per share of the Vanguard "High-yield" C...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wool slippers worth it?
Replies: 53
Views: 5415

Re: Wool slippers worth it?

I love the warmth and comfort of L. L. Bean's "Wicked Good" slippers, but I have been disappointed with the durability of the shearling lining. They are warmer and more comfortable than any other slippers I've owned, but (sample size 2) they get matted, and no amount of cautious home cleaning (vacuuming, dusting with baking soda and vacuuming etc.) seems to work. I made the mistake of taking my first pair to a dry cleaner who swore they could clean them safely, and they came back shrunken and stiff; that was terminal for that pair.

My third pair hasn't gotten to the point of needing replacement. This thread has convinced me to try Glerups the next time.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of Switching From Big Name Manager to Vanguard
Replies: 20
Views: 2252

Re: Starting the SSRI Paperwork

FriedOkra wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:24 pm
dodecahedron wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:09 pm What is SSRI? Surely not, in this context, Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor? And also not Social Sciences Research Institute?
Social Security Retirement Insurance. It's the official acronym that the Social Security Administration uses for the program.
Really? Not OASDI?
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?
Replies: 156
Views: 10621

Re: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?

I didn't know this, but
Patients can change insurance only during end-of-year enrollment periods or at the time of “qualifying life events,” such as a divorce or job change. But insurers’ contracts with doctors, hospitals and pharmaceutical companies (or their middlemen, so-called pharmacy benefit managers) can change abruptly at any time.
Source: How your in-network health coverage can vanish before you know it.

I think that would apply to some Medicare Advantage plans.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets flat
Replies: 57
Views: 4474

Re: Emerging markets flat

Logan Roy wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:58 pm...I think it's only worth acting when there's really no doubt...
I do, too. It's just that I think "when there's really no doubt" is "never."
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 10, 2024 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 7650
Views: 1723931

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

https://imgur.com/qaWffPl.png Robert Caro, 1975, The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York . 500/1162 = 43% read. Obviously having put that much into it I'm invested in saying it's great--but it's great. It actually keeps getting better. It is spectacularly well-written and it is like a mystery novel where you're dying to know what happens next. (And in a real sense, not having paid all that much attention to his career, I don't know). The plot is "power corrupts." The (multichapter) parts are entitled: Part I: The Idealist Part II: The Reformer Part III: The Rise to Power Part IV: The Use of Power Part V: The Love of Power Part VI: The Lust for Power Part VII: The Fall from Power. I did leaf ahead to the chapter ab...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 10, 2024 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets flat
Replies: 57
Views: 4474

Re: Emerging markets flat

...I don't think any philosophy undermines knowing what you're buying. That's what investing comes down to. With EM, you can see how prices stay somewhat tethered to fundamentals – and that Wall Street's short-termism will create bubbles and opportunities for longer-term investing. Things can be efficient over all timeframes. In short, you believe that it's not merely possible, but advisable to time the market, by "knowing what you're buying." And that you don't think it's wise to follow the Bogleheads' investing philosophy. Which is fine, but let's be clear about it. But let's keep some context. I'm saying that at these rare extremes, it's better to think like an investor than a lemming. And I think this rather echos Bogle's vie...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 10, 2024 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets flat
Replies: 57
Views: 4474

Re: Emerging markets flat

...But then what happened with bond prices, and subsequent price falls, recently, did derail the plans of some investors who didn't look at what they were buying .. With central banks forced buyers, and traders front-running policy, those who bought at prices that guaranteed loss of real value were choosing to play the 'greater fools' – and the hit taken in real wealth effectively paid off some of that stimulus for those of us who benefited from it. I don't think any philosophy undermines knowing what you're buying. That's what investing comes down to. With EM, you can see how prices stay somewhat tethered to fundamentals – and that Wall Street's short-termism will create bubbles and opportunities for longer-term investing. Things can be e...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 10, 2024 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets flat
Replies: 57
Views: 4474

Re: Emerging markets flat

Logan Roy wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 9:36 am...So, unlike DM over the past 15 years, EM has actually given investors cheap entry points, like right now, on half the valuations of DM...
That's just an attractive way of saying that EM has been much more volatile.

If you believe you can time the market, then the more volatile the asset, the greater the opportunity, and the higher the potential.

Of course, the Bogleheads' investment philosophy says "Never try to time the market." And, of course, many investors don't believe that and do believe they can time the market. At least when the opportunity seems so obvious that success seems like a sure thing.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 10, 2024 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets flat
Replies: 57
Views: 4474

Re: Emerging markets flat

Emerging markets have been riskier and more volatile than developed markets. The prospectus for EM funds says so. Their periods of outperformance has come in bursts. The last big one was in 2003-2007, which was a long time ago, but it was huge and it occurred during the "lost decade" of 2000-2009 for US stocks, so it was nice to have them then. I see no reason to believe that investors in emerging markets stocks are rewarded any more or any less for the amount of risk they take. Given the moderate amount of emerging markets in e.g. Vanguard Total World or Total International, it seems like a big "meh" to me. I own Total International, and it's a shrug. I wouldn't swap it for the Vanguard Developed Markets fund in order t...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 10, 2024 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we expect TBM funds to outperform inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 5205

Re: Can we expect TBM funds to outperform inflation?

I'm asking because my current investing plan is using fairly conservative performance estimates for the future, and one of these is that a US Total Bond Market Fund will return a negative real rate of return (nominal returns will be below inflation). I'm wondering: is that a reasonable possibility, or is it so pessimistic as to be wholly unexpected for a total bond market fund to perform like that? "Am I irrational to plan that BND funds lose to inflation over the long term?" Eh. Life is unpredictable. Intermediate-term bonds failing to keep up with inflation: pessimistic, yes; irrational, no. $10,000 invested in intermediate-term bonds in 1940 would been worth only $5,718 in real terms in 1981. Since it happened, it's possible. ...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mega Thread on Speed of 2023 Tax Refunds
Replies: 52
Views: 6136

Re: Mega Thread on Speed of 2023 Tax Refunds

IRS Efiled, accepted 3/1/2024.
Refund direct deposited and showing as "available funds" 3/8/2024.
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36446

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

billaster wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:53 pm
livingthedream17 wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:31 pm I don't have the facts, but I always assumed the logo change was mainly driven by the connection with slavery.
Perhaps, but a different Vanguard. The Vanguard logo is of the British Navy gunship the HMS Vanguard which was involved in the Napoleonic Wars.

A different ship, a commercial ship named Vanguard around the same period was involved in the slave trade.
Ah. I didn't know that. I was deeply enough immersed in Bogle lore to know it was Nelson's HMS Vanguard. But to the unaided eye, rendered as a screen icon, it's pretty hard for a nonexpert to tell which Vanguard we're looking at. Let me see, can I count 74 guns?
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should bond index funds still be part of our asset allocation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1520

Re: Should bond index funds still be part of our asset allocation?

Been seeing a lot of negativity lately regarding bond index funds and how volatility is not that much less than stock index funds. So did you check out that "volatility is not that much less" statement for yourself? What do you think is a reasonable time period to judge over? Certainly, if all you do is look at 2022 and no other years, well, Total Stock fell -19.51% and Total Bond fell -13.11% so in a way you could say "Total Bond had two-thirds the volatility of Total Stock, so it wasn't that much less." But, hey, it was less, and 2022 was extraordinary, and that's not the usual way to define volatility. If we look at it month to month Source https://imgur.com/S0vvnbH.png you can see by eyeball that stocks (red) were f...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we expect TBM funds to outperform inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 5205

Re: Can we expect TBM funds to outperform inflation?

From the average returns of stocks, bonds, and Treasury bills (i.e. "cash"), over the full time period 1900-2021, have all kept up with inflation. Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook, 2022 summary edition. As you see, bonds had a real return--i.e. beat inflation--by 2% per year. https://imgur.com/K5q8CfR.png Those are long-term bonds. I don't have figures for intermediate-term (TBM being average intermediate term) over that time period, but from 1926 through 2014, intermediate-term government bonds had a real return (beat inflation) by an average of 2.3%/year. However, that was just an average and 1940 through 1980 was grim. This is a chart of inflation-adjusted performance of Treasury bills (similar to intere...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36446

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

I don't have very strong feelings about the ship as such. What bothers me about it is that it seems so "meh," so indecisive, so aimless. Saying they did it because their image didn't render well digitally is obviously a fib, because a) it wasn't that bad, and b) I believe a graphic designer could have produce a blockier, more stylized version that would have reproduced fine. (This is supposed to be clip art of the USS Constitution , but hey). https://imgur.com/AIalWKl.png So currently Vanguard has no icon or graphic symbol. They represent themselves only by a typeface and a color. Is that unusual or is that just a new fashion trend in corporate trademarking? I certainly "see" Fidelity's pyramid-and-Eye-of-Providence symb...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?
Replies: 156
Views: 10621

Re: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?

The only issue I've had was regarding a colonoscopy. You are entitled to one every 10 years. I had my first one under Medicare but the doctor wanted me to come back in 5 years because he could not see all way to the end of my colon. I had the appointment set up for last year but then cancelled as I could never get a straight answer as to whether this would be covered. Medicare told me it would if it was deemed "medically necessary". I assumed the doctor's office could tell me but could never get an answer from them. Yes, I guess I would say that a bad feature of traditional Medicare is that there's no need for pre-approval, but also you can't get a pre-approval. They can tell you if a particular procedure code is covered, but the...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

People exaggerate the importance of the choice of the exact percentage of international allocation. Every chart of every measure against percentage of stocks in international is broad and shallow. All actual numbers are heavily endpoint dependent. And the signal-to-noise ratio is low. This is the difference between 20% international--the amount John C. Bogle said should be an upper limit--and 40% international, the amount Vanguard now uses. I'm going to use a 60/40 portfolio. For 20% international, then, we have 48% US stocks, 12% international stocks, 40% bonds. For 40%, 36% US stocks, 24% international stocks, 40% bonds. Source https://imgur.com/ErExjjk.png If you cherry-pick any specific time period, note the difference, pretend there is...
by nisiprius
Sat Mar 09, 2024 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Vanguard is about at cap weight

msterrr wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 3:57 pm ...Vanguard currently believes the correct allocation to capture the maximum possible benefit of international equity exposure is 40% (not global market weight) and 40% is on the higher side vs most competitors...
It's pretty darned close. VT, which is supposed to be global market weight, is currently about 62/38 US/ex-US.

They goosed the international percentage of equities from 20% originally, to 30%, and then to 40% around 2017 or so.

In 2017 that was a little less than global cap weight, but since then global cap weight for international stocks has sunk down to meet it.
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large cap growth stocks have periods of outperformance?
Replies: 35
Views: 3672

Re: Why do large cap growth stocks have periods of outperformance?

alex_686 wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 3:44 pm
rkhusky wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:44 pm If I have a 10 year Treasury bond paying 5%, then I know exactly how much interest I am going to get. There is no risk in that.
Reinvestment Risk. Inflation Risk.
Inflation risk exists explicitly in stocks. The equivalent of "reinvestment risk" exists in stocks, too. These are not risks unique to bonds.
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?
Replies: 156
Views: 10621

Re: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?

A few years ago, like maybe seven, navigating part D wasn't so bad, because the Medicare "find a plan" website worked well. You got good estimates of your out-of-pocket costs on all the plans. The only annoyances were a) needing to change every year because of extraordinary price fluctuations in every plan, the low-cost plans apparently all being one-year teaser deals; b) the problem of not knowing exactly what drugs you might need; and c) the extraordinarily unfair situation that you are required to commit for the whole year, but the insurance company is not required to commit to their formulary (list of covered drugs) for more than the first sixty days. I am not sure what is going on behind the scenes but the rise of discount pr...
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 175
Views: 17685

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

abc132 wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:49 am I'm not trying to beat US market with my emerging markets. They are essentially a bond replacement for 10% of my portfolio, allowing 80/20 AA instead of 70/30 AA nearing retirement. For that purpose I think their returns look fine - 1995-present they delivered 50% over intermediate treasuries.

A repeat of the past would good enough reason to hold 10% emerging markets.
abc132, are you talking about emerging markets bonds, perhaps?
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Option to elect for 22 vs 26 pay periods: thoguhts?
Replies: 16
Views: 1528

Re: Option to elect for 22 vs 26 pay periods: thoguhts?

(Never mind, I misunderstood what "22 pay periods" meant).
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 311
Views: 29848

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Oh, the kids these days. Walking around glassy-eyed as if hypnotized with all of their attention on that electronic gadget.

That last sentence could have been written in 1990 about a Walkman. And it could have been written in 1960 about a "transistor radio" with an earphone stuck in one ear.

Remember the "seashell radios" in Ray Bradbury's Fahrenheit 451?
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?
Replies: 156
Views: 10621

Re: Your Original Medicare Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?

hvaclorax wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:52 am The provider gives a large discount to Medicare. Approximately 30-35% lower payments. This is mandatory. Check it out.
Please clarify this, I don't understand what you are saying. By "provider" do you mean the insurer or the doctor? Are you saying Medicare Advantage premiums are 30-35% lower than traditional Medicare? Are you saying that Medicare pays doctors 30 to 35% less than Medicare Advantage?
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?
Replies: 156
Views: 10621

Re: Your Original Medicare Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?

Padlin wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:01 pm I have MA, wanted OM but the part D’s available in Massachusetts didn’t cover the more $ drugs I’m on, to the tune of about $4k a month. Even with their coverage I end up in the donut hole by summer, which isn’t as bad as one is led to believe.
[Corrected]In the doughnut hole, you still pay only 25% of the full price. And the doughnut hole is supposed to go away in 2025.
by nisiprius
Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 175
Views: 17685

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

In my (arrogant) opinion the disaster is not "emerging market stocks," but "significantly overweighting emerging markets stocks." Even in the Vanguard Total World Index Fund, or any other globally cap-weighted portfolio, emerging markets are 5.63% of the portfolio--0.28% in Europe Emerging, 5.34% in Asia Emerging. Call it 6%. That's not true though, is it? Just take a look at VT's exposure to EM. It's 9.5%. Global market cap is closer to 10% in EM My bad, I used Morningstar's numbers and misinterpreted them. I should have known Africa and South America are 100% emerging markets. I also made a mistake in my approximation of the effect of EM. I have corrected my posting above , and the corrected version continues to say I...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Original Medicare OR Advantage Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?
Replies: 156
Views: 10621

Re: Your Original Medicare Experience: Nightmare or Sublime?

Fine for me so far, about nine years in. And I've had six surgeries, three hospital admissions--one air ambulance ride, three trips to the emergency department, three ambulance rides--two ground and one air. Lot of office visits. Imaging. Snipped a tiny growth on the bottom of my tongue (worried about that because he was a dental surgeon, but medicare covered it). So far I haven't paid anything (well, I paid $1,600 each for toric lenses when I had my cataract operation, but I knew that going in). No surprises. So far Medicare (and supplementary Medigap) have covered everything I'd expect them to cover. I've seen a few denials on my Medicare Summary Notices, mostly my CPAP Durable Medical Equipment supplies provider, when they must have misc...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 175
Views: 17685

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

In my (arrogant) opinion the disaster is not "emerging market stocks," but "significantly overweighting emerging markets stocks." Even in the Vanguard Total World Index Fund, or any other globally cap-weighted portfolio, emerging markets are 5.63% of the portfolio--0.28% in Europe Emerging, 5.34% in Asia Emerging. Call it 6%. , according to Vanguard, , 9.5% of the portfolio. If emerging markets went to zero tomorrow, it wouldn't even count as a correction. If we make a very rough comparison between a scenario of a scenario of "if VT only used developed markets" versus "if VT included 10% EM but EM didn't return a penny more than cash," then since 2010 the effect of VT-without-EM to VT-with-cash-instea...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dual Direction Annuity - 2 good 2B true?
Replies: 15
Views: 1370

Re: Dual Direction Annuity - 2 good 2B true?

Hopefully you at least got a free steak dinner for listening to the sales pitch. I was thinking about going to one of those sometime. I'm not sure I could keep from laughing during the presentation though. "There ain't a horse that can't be rode, and there ain't a rider that can't be throwed." I don't think stealing bait from mousetraps is a good idea. One reason is that a friend of ours told us, years ago, that she made a hobby of going to timeshare presentations just to get the free dinner. She said "When they come over to talk to me, I just say 'Oh, I'm only here for the free dinner,' and then they go away." Some years later it transpired that she was trying to unload a timeshare she had bought at a free dinner.
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wordle [Anyone playing Wordle?]
Replies: 393
Views: 43949

Re: Wordle [Anyone playing Wordle?]

Question for you Wordle folks: Do you consider it "cheating" to use a site like https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/ to see if a word has already been used for a solution for Wordle? However you enjoy playing it is okay with me. I personally wouldn't do it, but I do use that website to remind myself of the week's answers, since (as I mentioned awhile back) I play Wordle weird. :-) You are making an assumption that Wordle words will never be re-used. I'd imagine at some point they will. The original Wordle was actually written in Javascript and execute client-side. All of whose code--including the word list--could be viewed via "show source." Not even encrypted. Not even in rot13. Cheat? Oh, yes. You could see what tomorrow...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wordle [Anyone playing Wordle?]
Replies: 393
Views: 43949

Re: Wordle [Anyone playing Wordle?]

I play Wordle almost every day. I almost always, but not always, get it within six. I'm frustrated because the New York Times doesn't seem to be 100% accurate on user recognition, and (foolishly) I sometimes play it on my tablet and sometimes on my computer, and every once in a while the device will forget that I DID win it yesterday and break my streak... I always begin with the same two words, which together include A, E, I, O, U, Y and four very frequent letters. By the third guess, it is already quite difficult to find candidates that are consistent with the results of the first two. It ain't Wordle, it isn't nearly as good, but I've started playing the Washington Post's Keyword game and I do enjoy it. By the way, the master key to Keyw...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dual Direction Annuity - 2 good 2B true?
Replies: 15
Views: 1370

Re: Dual Direction Annuity - 2 good 2B true?

And, just to nail it down, I was right: https://imgur.com/2C7HgQ7.png Please note that due to spacing constraints, the index name in this document was abbreviated. The full index name is the S&P 500 Price Return Index. "Spacing constraints" [snort] yeah right. Sure. Also: https://imgur.com/oxHnQbP.png Returns are price return only and exclude dividends. And the big question I have: did you know this before you came to the forum? Did the rep explain it to you? Would you have spotted it in their marketing literature? Since the marketing literature talks about six-year returns, let's compare to total growth from 2018-2023 with dividends (as you would get in an S&P 500 index fund) and without. This is a web page worth bookmark...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread
Replies: 1514
Views: 169502

Re: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread

I'm reading Charles D. Ellis' October, 2023 book Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets From the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business . It delivers on both parts of the title before and after the colon. I.e. (before the colon) there is a lot of material about Vanguard, its history, and its leaders that I didn't know before. And (after the colon) it is relentlessly upbeat, positive, and pro-Vanguard. Let's say 99% pro-Vanguard. And it is full of praise for both William McNabb and Mortimer Buckley. Therefore it was interesting to read, pp. 298-299: Vanguard has fallen behind key competitors like Fidelity and Schwab in service to investors. The reasons range from the firm’s explosive growth in assets to its long-a...
by nisiprius
Thu Mar 07, 2024 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you deal with online misinformation?
Replies: 28
Views: 1782

Re: How do you deal with online misinformation?

(Scooped by dcabler while organizing this posting... but I'm including an image link)
Obligatory: xccd: "Duty Calls"

Image